EURUSD (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1.4100
rev= 1.4820; mid= 1.4460
The rumors of a second Greece bailout are now circulating. This has sent the EURUSD higher when the Asia markets opened. But why? Greece can never pay off what they owe. More austerity will lead to more protests and work stoppage. Personally I give this intervention a half life of two days but you could probably measure it in hours. See http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/31/us-markets-forex-idUSTRE74U02L20110531 and http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/30/us-eurozone-idUSTRE74Q1YV20110530.
IWM/SPY (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 0.6349
rev= 0.6013; mid= 0.6181
The proxy for liquidity in the market is indicating that it hasn't dried up just yet. The apex of the triangle is about 4-5 weeks away. That happens to line up with the end of QE2.
32 comments:
Fears grow over Greece bank run as country seeks bail-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1270153/Fears-grow-Greece-bank-run.html
They probably want that cash in hand so they can run right out to the post office and back up the truck on 25% bills...
They'll all be RICH in no time flat!
The apex of the triangle is about 4-5 weeks away. That happens to line up with the end of QE2.
Let me guess...
a-b-c-x-a-b-c-y-a-b-c-z-Q-E-3
- aka "The Charlie Brown T-Shirt pattern", or, "Vanna, can I buy a vowel"?...
Well, S&P500 "cheering" yet another bailout....
There are some people you just take money from....I wud say Libya is one of those people....
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-libya-sovereign-wealth-fund-losses-shareholder-2011-5
"Well, S&P500 "cheering" yet another bailout...."
May be short lived... as CV said, they're just kicking the can down the road... I think they're kicking to many cans down the road... Obama's gonna need a can kicking Czar, or does he already have one?
Can kicking to ∞
silver performing nicely, have accumulated 200 slv calls in the past weeks, will slowly cash them out... rinse, repeat
Germany's installed solar PV panels hit 12.1 GW -- greater than the total power output (10 GW) of Japan's entire 6-reactor nuclear power plant.
...and I read somewhere this past weekend, Germany will close more reactors. They just may be the only country to go 100% solar in the future. Now why didn't we think of this long ago? We're to busy growing corn for biodiesel, which happens to be one of the worse grains for producing oil for such... sheesh
@qqqq
Silver... Or, more accurately, "paper silver", looks kind of odd to me on the chart right now...
I really had high hopes that some hi-jinks would occur over the weekend...
It SORT OF did... But the results have been muted with respect to what I'd anticipated would be a price move...
I'm board with Andy in looking/hoping for that 39.50 level (higher is fine too, but that's just gravy boat ville)...
So I still haven't pulled the trigger on exchanging that STERLING for gold coins...
...and remember (for those of you who don't have the Rosetta Stone C(R)IFFS NOTES handy in translating my Annukai/Sumerian/Aramaic - lest I be chastised for making a bad trade 12 months from now)...
It's an ARBITRAGE bitchez...
Which = I'm expecting gold to outperform silver in the upcoming medium term (even perchance, if both go down)...
I have hardly an interest at all in the relative prices in paper markets...
Looks like I might also have to start doing some re-stocking in:
- lumber
- coffee
- natty
- blue jeans
- rice
& other things... while I'm at it...
So many PHYSICAL RAW GOODS bitchez... SO LITTLE TIME...
tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...tick...
Those wily Germans....
I like the Solar Panels....but, if you try to put in Solar Panels here, the Neighborhood Association gets on your ass. I petitioned to install them on my roof and was "rebuffed."
The hype is wearing off. With Chicago PMI and Case-Shiller being WTE the morning push higher quickly abated. Now Germany comes out saying that they are not necessarily being a second bailout for Greece and some parliament members recommend that Greece should leave the euro.
@qqqq
Germany will close more reactors. They just may be the only country to go 100% solar in the future...
They're a bunch of anti-semitic NAZI's...
Now why didn't we think of this long ago?
Because we spend too much time worrying about whether or not we're behaving in an 'anti-semitic' way & don't have time for calculated reasoning...
AND - Because it takes a lot of SILVER to do an industrial sized build-out of solar capacitors & components to that extent (where's my 'smart grid')?... Instead, we'd prefer to have banking entities create artificial paper market for silver, then NAKED SHORT IT (using the taxpayer base as a backstop for failed speculation)... & meanwhile, convince you, via propaganda, that you can dig it out of the ground for $5, and your yard is probably littered with the stuff...
Every generation or so, they'll decide to assasinate a US President for even attempting to put you on a different standard...
We're to busy growing corn for biodiesel, which happens to be one of the worse grains for producing oil for such
Yeah that's because the same bankers know that by depleting the water supply of the world (whereby the rate of water depletion, to grow, corn, is displacing oil in terms of it's 'precious factor')...
Well... Your next 'taxation/slavery' chains are going to be that of WATER & CARBON...
...and the beat goes on!
Don't listen to me though... I just make this stuff up as I go along...
Plus Congress decided to take another vote on the debt ceiling AFTER THE MARKET CLOSES to avoid disrupting it. Considering the vote is going to fail what difference would it make.
@Andy
I like the Solar Panels....but, if you try to put in Solar Panels here, the Neighborhood Association gets on your ass. I petitioned to install them on my roof and was "rebuffed"
FUCK THEM...
You're left with 2 choices:
1. Put 'em up anyway and fight it in court (make HEADLINES while you're at it - that would be CLASSIC!)...
2. Move farther out... On multiple acres (outta sight of dickhead socialist homeowners associations)... And do WTF you please...
Note: the risk with the second option is that you be labeled as the "UNI-BOMBER" (oops - Thor - you just LOST the spelling bee)... "UNABOMBER"...
Why the hell not AT... Try it on and see if it fits... My blood pressure has definitely gone down... :-)
@Amen
Plus Congress decided to take another vote on the debt ceiling AFTER THE MARKET CLOSES
Since when did our government act & create policy solely with regards to whether it had a 50 point difference in Dow minis?...
I thought TD Ameritrade account holders held sway in that court (moving the market with their pattern recognition software)???
CV
They're thinking about 2008 when the vote for TARP failed and the Dow sold off. That was followed by a vote to approve TARP and yet the Dow sold off again.
@CV, I was looking at $40-42 for the bounce. AT's $39.50 was seen on my charts, as on other blogs also. These are just trades to keep me busy and from the bars. I'll tell ya something about me. I'm basically homeless since I sold the 3 homes I owned in Phoenix 2006/2007 (now that's a story in itself, HUD paid). I live on the road, on perdiem. So my shelter is paid, my food is paid along with my gas. Leftover money (tax-free) from perdiem goes to my trades. 18% of my paycheck goes into 401K which has 50% match up to 8% yearly salary. I travel around the country with wife and will do this until we find a location to pay cash for a house. We're not ready yet, Still in good health and house prices still dropping so the savings just increase. My timeline seems to be different than yours. I don't feel that the economy will just plunge... fast. I'll be working 3 planned jobs in the next year (Torrance, CA, San Luis Obispo, CA and Kona, HI) and possible trip to Dallas/Fort Worth for a month or two. All-in-all, the economy is in trouble, but it's slowly dying IMO. I don't have a Henny Penny personality, but on the other hand, I'm aware that the US is in trouble and have taken steps to safeguard any possible bad situation that may arise.
SLV gap closed from this morning... which way do we go
@AT, I remember when I worked in Katy years ago and think it was west of the Bass Pro Shop (near the Katy Mall?) and south of I-10, I saw a homes with solar panels. Nice homes on a few acre parcels. They probably had different HOA (if any) rules. If solar panels are professionlly installed, why would it be a problem?
"If solar panels are professionlly installed, why would it be a problem?"
Texas is on the Big Oil payroll.....
A pointless trading day today. Have given up all directional punting on SPX, precious metals and TLT. SPX/PMs is Qe(n) arbitrage, and TLT is debt ceiling arbitrage. Waste of time. Trading only EEM from the short side now (as my stronger dollar proxy), while staying long a bag of dividend stocks, a few percent of fixed income. Lots of cash.
The dollar retracement might end about 8am tomorrow, unless ADP is truly horrendous, which is probably unlikely.
-We're too busy growing corn for biodiesel, which happens to be one of the worse grains for producing oil for such... sheesh
OTH...in march, my (conservative) provincial government announced a .13L "grant" for farmers in a position to produce a min. of 500k litres of canola oil for bio-diesel use. Given recent yields from frankenseeds...this requires approx. 11 quarters or 1320 acres. Average farm size in my 'hood is about 2000 acres...the dudes renting my land run well over 3000. Given cost of seed and input rates...this simply translates to a $65,000 give away to about 80% of farmers.
Straight out of grandma's tax dollars and into the pockets of Monsanto. She won't be able to afford to eat in a couple of years...nor does she own the 5 ton truck I'll be backing up at Costco.for everything from Hellmanns to oatmeal...not to mention the liquor store for Stellas...given reduced seeded acres in wheat, oats, malting barley, etc.
Effing SHEESH, indeed. And now of course...I'm sending those farm dudes a letter informing them of pending rent increases...so the beat goes on.
@qqqq (12:36)
That's totally cool...
Two things jump out...
1. It's perfectly right to base one's decisions on their own set of individual needs/while considering the larger picture as a scope/framework... That's the ESSENCE of what my profession has been (personal training) all along... Matching generic science with what and individual can hope to manage within their own existence in the best way possible...
2. I actually like the $40-$42 level as well... I haven't bothered saying much about it (because frankly, I doubt many here fool around with silver anyway)... I can't say whether it will make it or not...
Bottom line is... I haven't made the swap (that I was talking about last week yet), as things appear to have gone into slow motion or something...
@Mel
grandma's tax dollars and into the pockets of Monsanto. She won't be able to afford to eat in a couple of years...nor does she own the 5 ton truck I'll be backing up at Costco
Try to look on the bright side of things... If she was 'granny' on the BEVERLY HILLBILLIES, she could have a rocking chair on the back of the 5 ton truck...
If solar panels are professionlly installed, why would it be a problem?
It's due to a lack of qualified professionals...
Since Obama became President, they're all busy working those "shovel ready" jobs (where 6 guys stand around a hole to watch the 7th one dig)...
From what I've heard, 3-4 million jobs were created/saved that way... The rest are still making more cashing unemployment checks, and yet MORE are have been recruited to the military to make sure we have the low cost energy so that the unemployment check cashers can sit in air conditioned homes, watch the "El Presidente 24/7" channel, and blog with Ritholtz & friends...
ADP is truly horrendous, which is probably unlikely.
Well... AT MINIMUM, you can count on the ADP being the band warming up in the pit in anticipation of the... wait for it... wait for it...
MOST IMPORTANT NFP # OF ALL TIME...
qqqq: That Bass Pro shops there is AWESOME. I take my kids there sometimes to just walk around the place.
I am growing a bit concerned about the 10-year note and the Aaa-Baa spread.
AT, yeh, I use to just walk around that acre+ size building and find stuff that I never knew existed.
nice case-shiller charts, if you're into these things...
qqqq
Phoenix, Chicago, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, Tampa, Detroit, San francisco (barely) and Miami are getting crushed according to those charts.
AT,
Interesting projections for S&P on the new charts. Thanks for the outlook.
Here's some silver charts that might be worth a look:
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=21542
Monthly SPX candle will be a dark coud cover (unless algos go buck wild in the last 30 min).
ben22
Those charts also coincide with failing the SMA(55).
Painting the tape for EOM has begun..
No new TICKS highs in the move. Whew.
Would you believe todays move pushed the SPX back to the trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10)? Coincidence?
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