10 Yr Note (weekly info)WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new high 122.266
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 122.266
rev= 118.266; mid= 120.266
Somehow someway the 10yr Note has a bid under it. Why anyone would by the 10yr with this low yield is beyond me.
IWM/SPY Liquidity (weekly info)-no change
trend=no
direction=yp (1 bar)
high= 0.6349
rev= 0.6010; mid= 0.6177
This liquidity substitute indicates the liquidity is increasing this week. Did anyone see the volume for 5/10/11? Liquidity from where is the question.
48 comments:
Somehow someway the 10yr Note has a bid under it. Why anyone would by the 10yr with this low yield is beyond me
In other news...
"Somehow someway SHORTING PAPER SILVER has a bid under it (from time to time & at strategic moments)... Why anyone would short silver in a world where fiat money is printed 24/7 is beyond me..."
Back to the 10 year...
Oh yeah! Could it be to SHAME Bill Gross (TRF)???
Look! our dickus is bigger than yours! Ye shall forevermore be taught a lesson, that is to pump your 401K fiat into government debt, take a 3% return on it, pay taxes on ththos gains, while the cost of living rises 4-5% incrementally...
Makes for fun trading I suppose...
CV
I do believe that the US Treasury and Fed are out to put Gross in his place. Made a few phone calls to the PD's, etc.
"Amazingly," Silver gets sold right at the 38.2% retracement....
Off the the mines now....
clearly the fund doesn't have enough short treasuries right now for it to make a material difference to performance, look at the gain over the last month during which the whole short position disclosure came out, best month it's had in a while, the media simply overblows the story. Lost in the media mouth foaming over gross is that pimco just spent billions to launch equity products including ETF's, I'm sure all the negative bond talk has nothing to do with that though and I'm sure PIMCO didn't say nearly the exact same things last time they rolled out equity products, which failed by the way.
it's a 3-4% position, and if one were to look at all the other holdings, I highly doubt the govt is looking to teach him a lesson.
We're from the Government & we're here to help!
ben22
Think back to LTCM. Which hedge fund didn't participate in their bailout?
>> last time they rolled out equity products, which failed by the way.
Ben, did PIMCO's last equity funds "fail" because their returns were so non-stellar that they didn't attract enough investors/assets? Or some other reason?
Wunsacon,
They had some legal problems and the performance was generally poor. It was a black mark for the company for a while and an expensive attempt at getting bigger but away from the core business there, now it's been long enough that most people forgot it ever happened.
Putnam is still around too, in case people forgot, lol.
Ra,
Maybe it's too early, I'm just not seeing the connection in any way.
ben22
The US government is trying to sell the public on the recovery. Gross' move says "What recovery?" That or PIMCO just doesn't want to hold USTs at these low yields. They still make money but not at the rate they want.
PIMCO just doesn't want to hold USTs at these low yields
Who would buy them anyway when it came time to sell?
Or, do you plan to hold until maturity at 3% and watch the dollar glidepath downwards (at best) in the process?
You want volatility? Go trade some Rbob Gasoline...
holy shit.
Ra,
I see it the exact opposite way.
it seems to me that Gross move says that what the Fed is doing is working but it creates long term problems, his exact words were that he'd take the short treasury position OFF only if we got into another recession, in other words, we aren't in one now, so weak as it may be, it's technically a "recovery" and therefore he takes a tiny portion of the fund and shorts some government bonds (and the press goes ape shit over it and BG steps up his use of language to take advantage of the publicity, create some buzz), that seems to be an endorsement that one way or another the Fed is going to make inflation so, the Fed will call it a recovery, so it's a quasi endorsement of the idea that they will win....in their own special way of "winning"
As for not wanting to hold govies at these low yields, the fund has 37% in cash now I believe versus a 3-4% short position in govt bonds, govvies may yield very little but cash yields even less, I don't think it has much to do with that. Put another way, in 2000 lots of people didn't want to own governement bonds because look how low the yields were compared what you could make in.....CSCO!, among others.
very few bond managers plan to hold bonds until maturity.....
Finally getting a verdict in the Raj Trial....
18's 1350 area, will it hold? prolly so...
So whats all going to happen in June? Sell in May, walk away... Martin Armstrong's June down, bottom or whatever... end QE2... CNBC commercial about the most drastic thing ever going to happen in 2011, it will affect everyone on the planet... etc.........
Intrade showing a 94% chance that Raj gets convicted of something.
Tempting SELL.
no doubt the entire jury thinks he looks like a doughboy, they'll likely go easy on him what with the recent foot problems and all.
guess Intrade can be "predictive"....
convicted on all counts...
wonder what took them so long.
Oh, btw, it's official, BR has determined that MSFT did in fact cause the .com bubble, glad we got that solved.
it was the food, bought him a couple days...
wonder if he'll get on a workout program with Tiny from Cell Block D? Next time you see Raj Raj he'll be a new man.
that's s'posed to say fooT....
I believe that the 10 year note is a great investment. Think of all the corporate bankruptcies that will result from a surprise decline in growth.
The IRS does not accept silver, hence its decline.
Raj heading to Sri Lanka for sure.
Bucky getting a bit saucy.
Looks like a large triangle forming on Rbob. This c-wave targets 308c.
RBOB currently locked limit down 25c at 311.40. Nice
...had to force buying of USTs. 10yr auction must not have been going so well.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=43439
Forbes predicts Gold standard in the next five years.
CME Group Announces Revised Daily Price Limit Proposal for Corn Futures and Options
CHICAGO, May 10, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it had revised its recent proposal to increase daily price limits for Corn futures and options. Pending CFTC approval, daily limits on CBOT Corn futures and options would increase to $0.40 per bushel from the current $0.30 per bushel, replacing a late April proposal to increase daily limits to $0.50 per bushel. These contracts are listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CBOT.
Daily price limit increase proposal on R2K contracts to commence in 5...4...3...
That's to keep those EVIL SPECULATORS from doing un-American things like bid up the market cap of JDS Uniphase to a brazillion to one ("profit" to earnings)...
We think the bid beneath the 10y is related to European bank concerns about a possible Greek restructuring. Look for selling of Treasuries if and when the ECB kicks the can down the road again.
Just read BR's missive on how MSFT caused the Internet Bubble.
I'm a little unimpressed...he never really showed the connection there.
Oh well. Makes for a good headline that should get him another invite to CNBC.
Just read BR's missive on how MSFT caused the Internet Bubble
High trace levels of Grey Poupon in your system lead you to see things that mere mortals miss...
Barry's got a lot of family that were big time at IBM if I'm not mistaken, this is cause for a lot of sour grapes posts on MSFT over the years from him.
That and Bill Gates envy, he's surely got the bigger yacht, and doesn't need to rent in the Hamptons.
SPX doing all it can to avoid closing the opening gap up on the 30min chart from Friday (5/6/11). It already closed the opening gap up from Tuesday.
JNK, HYG, TIP, IQI all say risk is not available. Please try again later.
I'm wondering if the NYSE will keep the circuit breakers on until close...
"That and Bill Gates envy, he's surely got the bigger yacht"
Sheriff Brody (Jaws): "We're going to need a bigger boat"
BR: "We're going to need a bigger yacht"
Stay away from Martha's Vineyard then...20 great white shark spotted just the other day.
It's almost 14:40. Do you know where your daily market pump is?
DXY trading above its weekly 3LB reversal price and is looking to challenge its SMA(55) which it hasn't closed above since 1/13/11.
75.80 should be good resistance on DXY on the first go.
Ra,
You watching TICK today? I might swing long the NAZ near the close.
ben22
That -1100 shook a few traders. I see them trying to ramp the close. I'm worried about the revision to Initial Claims (474k) which could change last week to anywhere from 475k to 500k.
Ouch...Cisco reports .33/share versus .37/share a year ago. Profit was $1.8B versus $2.2B YoY. An 18% drop in profit.
The Bond Report 5.11.11
The credit markets have been quiet lately, bond prices drifting upwards on lower Treasury yields and stable credit spreads. Today was typical. Note that JNK hasn't been selling off, and typically credit leads equities, so no sign here yet of a liquidity shortage. Fixed income as a whole remains highly vulnerable to rate risk.
Corpies: LQD 0.16%; AGG 0.18%; JNK -0.18%; HYG -0.15%
Govies: TLT 0.57%; IEI 0.23%; TIP -0.32%
Munis: IQI -0.57%; MUB 0.23%
Mortgages: MBB 0.02%
Specialty: ZROZ 1.05%; TBT -1.03%; EMB -0.03%
We have a bit of JNK and a bit of TLT, but basically haven't been involved lately. At the close we shorted the long end, both to fade the recent move and in view of initial claims tomorrow. This is a noisy series so the danger is of a downside surprise in the number, indicating improving employment conditions, and triggering Treasury weakness.
Of course a decent number would be DXY positive, but not necessarily equity positive as the commodity rout might be extended.
BR was on the board (maybe still is on it) of a company that sued MSFT. Can't remember the name of it.
Having lived through the dot-com bubble in the middle of S. Valley, the idea that MSFT caused it is pretty preposterous to me.
Whammer
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