After last weeks news of Bin Laden's death, the folks who "lean left" politically are now completely convinced he will be re-elected. Indeed, INTRADE polls show a 65% Chance of a Democrat being elected in 2012.
It's difficult to imagine Obama not getting re-elected, but that's mostly because the GOP has no legitimate candidates. It's almost as if they're returning the John Kerry favor from 2004.
Despite all the euphoria over the "courageous decision" to kill OBL and the absence of any 'real' challengers of any kind, it's still important for Obama to understand the importance of this chart:
It shows that Employment, the US Dollar, and Home Prices are all DOWN since January 2009 while things like Energy, Food, Metals, and Public DEBT are WAAAAY up.
Now, we all know that the "O" inherited a mess of situation when he took over (and he'll remind us of this OVER and OVER again), but these numbers will need to change by 2012 in order for him to get re-elected. If gas is still $4+ bucks, U-6 (Real Unemployement #) is still near 20% and our Debts are piling up with no end in sight, he will have some serious problems in '12. If the trends above continue, it will be a rocky road for "Hope and Change." He'll need a Michelle Bachmann type of "favor."
From a trading perspective, INTRADE can be used to speculate. I'm a seller of a Dem.2012 at 65% and a buyer at 55%. This should be a "range bound" market until mid-2012.
27 comments:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/10/news/economy/florida_unemployment_benefits/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
"The bill would slash unemployment benefits to a maximum of 12 weeks if the unemployment rate is at 5% or below. The most Floridians could get is 23 weeks, if the unemployment rate is 10.5% or higher.
The state's unemployment rate stood at 11.1% in March, the third highest in the nation.
Florida lawmakers are cutting benefits to blunt the massive increase in unemployment taxes that's looming for businesses. Companies were scheduled to pay a minimum of $206.55 per year in 2012, up from $72.10 this year. Under the bill, they would save $32.10 per worker next year."
..This is the problem with hoping the government saves us. If unemployment insurance rates go up like the article indicates, guess what? FEWER EMPLOYEES.
...not even close to rocket science..
“Gold today is no longer related to the normal economic cycle of supply and demand, jewelry, Indian wedding seasons, rain in the Middle ast. All those things are passé, forget about them. Gold is driven today by one overriding and I am afraid, at least in my opinion, an irresistible and irreversible trend. A fundamental, global and growing insecurity… A fundamental, global and growing lack of confidence of the world in everything they were brought up to believe. Institutions, insurance companies, banks, issuers of mortgages, ratings agencies, equities, sovereign debt, Federal Reserve Banks. Portugal and Iceland. Greece and Spain. Currencies. What is left? What is left?” – Peter Munk, Chairman, Barrick Gold
..Excellent and accurate summary from ZH.
I suppose the one graph that is missing above is the S&P 500. That's the gambit isn't it?
That, the stock market performance is so good that most Americans feel richer.
Rbob Gasoline going into "blow off" mode this AM. Gulf Coast differentials are skyrocketing on a lack of supply.
I'm sure this is all due to evil speculators somewhere.
>> After last weeks news of Bin Laden's death, the folks who "lean left" politically are now completely convinced he will be re-elected.
Please remember that many of us who "lean left" bemoan this probability, because many of us gave up on him after a couple of years (or earlier) and concluded Obama is practically indistinguishable from Dubya.
About his only "achievement" was advancing gay rights. And, if you look at that cynically, it might've been driven less by morality than by the armed forces recruiting and retention issues after years at war.
Thx Andy, speaking of SPX, seems it just might keep chugging upwards into 2012 without a major correction(?). So many times I've felt one was due, it doesn't pan out.
well, off to work with the other lemmings.
Billy G. goes deeper into the Treasury shorts...
Nice.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gross-goes-even-shorter-us-treasuries-2011-5
As I get older, I'm going to start using low-res photos like Billy G. ;-)
Later, folks.
That chart reminds me of the Mad TV skit "Lowered Expectations".
Anyone else think the "margin requirement" are a red herring?
The speculators who are long have been ones the making all the money...their bank accounts are friggin' flushed with cash.
What do they care about increasing margins?
yes, AT, the 'Margin Requirement'-angle is 'overcooked'..
if 'they' wanted to, really, get serious, 'they' would pull the plug on 'Bank Financing' of 'Speculative' Commodity positions..
not that I would, necessarily, be a 'proponent' of such..
but, at the EOD, most peep have no inkling as to 'how small' those 'Physical Commodity' Markets are, esp. in contrast to all of the Fiat/Credit floating around....
AAIP
Now, we all know that the "O" inherited a mess of situation when he took over (and he'll remind us of this OVER and OVER again)...
As I recall... Obama and the donkey sweep of 2008 basically ran on a platform of:
- Ending wars - we're in 3 now instead of 2
- Closing Gitmo & ending torture - Gitmo is still fully functional, and we're sending cruise missles into Libya & SEAL teams into Pakistan
- Ending the Bush tax cuts - (umm yeah)
- Putting an end to lobbyist influence in Washington (umm yeah II)
- T-R-A-N-S-P-A-R-E-N-C-Y (Remember when all the healthcare debate was going to be on C-SPAN, and the White House was going to put everything on the web?... All we got in the web was a faked birth certificate)
- "It's the economy stupid part 2"... A return to CLINTON ERA budget surpluses... I don't have to tell you that the fiscal deficit (when they bother to even publish a budget), has quadrupled in only 2 years from the unprecedented Bush deficits)...
So...
COPE bitchez!
4 more years! 4 more years!
Hey! I'm SERIOUS!
I've already pretty much figured out that AmeriKans are stupid enough to vote for Obama again...
That's why I bought physical silver...
Think I'd be holding on to my silver if I thought Ron Paul had any chance of #winning?
Metaphorically speaking... If AMERIKANS are "sheeple"... CV's favorite sport is MUTTON BUSTING...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkqMHFHd2qY&feature=related
@Andy T
Question 4 ya bro...
SUGAR
Does that have the 'look' of any kind of completed move down (retesting the levels of last September)?...
Or, is that just a 'bounce' looking maybe to retrace as far back as the April GAP...
As you know... CV, these days, is all about 'accumulation' of PHYSICAL stuff...
So I want to know if I can buy about 200 or 300 pounds of the stuff here and store it in my 55 gallon 'food grade' barrels...
"Anyone else think the "margin requirement" are a red herring?"
Me. If the nets psychological imperetive is there you can raise margin all you want, it won't matter at all and metals can just keep going up.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SB
~22.21
cv--
'the Sweet Stuff' looks 'constructive', from this end..
AAIP
Mr.Softie to buy Skype.
Great move.....
Not.
Mutton Busting is fun to watch live...it's hysterical.
At the end of Busting at the Houston Rodeo, they interviewed the winner:
So, how did you do it?
This little girl in the loud speakers shouts: "I just held on real tight!"
I can't see a lot with that Sugar market right now. If you put a gun to my head, I would say it looks like it has more room to work lower in the near term.
SPX struggling to close above the high from NFP day...
The candle at 14:40 on the one minute chart. WTF??? SPX jumps almost two handles just to take out the high from this morning.
@AAIP @Andy T
...on SUGAR
The 2 'inputs' mesh pretty well IMO...
I like the CONSTRUCTIVE look in the short term (at leat until the GAP)... Maybe mid-term it ends up being a BEARISH FLAG (until, of course QE3 is announced [in some form of ancient ARAMAIC that sheeps don't understand - thinking the USSA is all about 'austerity' - which, of course, it is NOT)...
So... BUY - SELL - BUY (18 months timeframe on that)...
This 'trading s***' is easy... :-)
P.S... You can SLEEP nights if you hold a quarter ton of the stuff in your basement in airtight FOODGRADE...
If, OTOH, you're trading FIAT PAPER CONTRACTS???
Dog help you!
... & basically what I'm saying to EVERYONE (in my own version of ARAMAIC)...
Is that...
If you bother to study the ARBITRAGE on the dollar vs. ANYTHING (whether it be silver, crude, or 'softs')... It's not hard to get an idea as to when QE3 will be announced...
Just draw the triangles out on your FIBO levels, and 'pennants' thereof...
OR... Just trade worthless FIAT on worthless indices (which is what the Bernank & TPTB how you're dumb enuf to do whilke they devalue the buying power of your trading genius)...
(which is what the Bernank & TPTB how you're dumb enuf to do whilke they devalue the buying power of your trading genius)...
was meant to read like...
(which is what the Bernank & TPTB are herding you into because they realize you're dumb enuf to do so while they DEVALUE the buying power of your trading genius - and "tax" you on the PROFITS on it - just to re-iterate how UNCOMMONLY stupid you are, instead of "average, run of the mill stupid")...
RA,
take a look at the action from 11:30 up until then, nothing strange at all about what happened there, look at volume, traders piled on short at each peak in the range from 1352-1354, there were three total, the third being slightly higher than the previous two, shorts were forced to cover on the break back above peak 3 and a 2 pt breakout was seen in the cover panic, a common breakout equal to the range.
also, there was a nice clean flag yesterday on the intraday charts for S&P that pointed toward a challenge of the 1362-63 area and a tiny flag was painted today directly after that 2 point jump.
@cv
"Now, we all know that the "O" inherited a mess of situation when he took over (and he'll remind us of this OVER and OVER again)..."
But look at what the Owe-bama has done in 2 years (chart) compared to 8 for Bush. What's this chart going to look like in 2 more years?
The Bond Report will return tomorrow....
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