A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
"I despise EOM shenanigans!"
Creditcane™: Another bailout for Greece, Chicago PMI WTE, Case-Shiller WTE and Consumer Confidence WTE and I get ignored. Go figure.
SPXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Testing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Held the 23.6% retrace (1341.90). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1316.28). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"
DXYHammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Below all SMA's. Failed its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 76.10).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Failing its 14.6% retrace (16.75). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.20). Wants to escape the "no fear" zone.
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1556.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Tested and held its SMA(55). Now above its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4054).
JNKHanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Held its 14.6% retrace (40.73). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.49).
10YR YIELDBearish long day (didn't ocnfirm homing pigeon). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (30.41). Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 31.57).
WTIBullish long day. Back above SMA(89) & SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Above its 50.0% retrace (102.07). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).
SILVERBullish short day. Held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the upper trend line. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (38.05). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 36.12). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"
TLTBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace (96.76). Trading above its upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 95.49).
EEMDragonfly doji day (ruh roh?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held its 38.2% retrace (48.07). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 46.09).
BKXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Failed its 50.0% retrace (50.11). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 48.88).
WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011
17 comments:
Hey I-Man... Check it out... The CME just lowered your CODB (margins)...
http://www.scribd.com/doc/56748293/Chadv11-188
Nice guys! Their way of saying "your money is good with us... we likey likey... Keep it coming love..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNQLClLLIYQ
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They apparently don't like CV (or his business) very much because they, what was it?, RAISED the margins on SLV something like 5 times back in the end of April to try and scare everyone away...
Must be because they don't types whose minds have "gone to the dark side", are "unhinged", "are becoming increasingly bizarre", & are [un]invit[ing] to comments and views"...
CV
Just trying to lure traders back to ES. They ran them away from PMs but they didn't go into ES as they had hoped. IMHO
...more from the "increasingly bizzare" world of CV sleuthing... (Not the type of 'sleuthing' that involved tracking down the IP numbers of bloggers - BTW)...
May 31, 2011
Russia Says IMF Chief Jailed For Discovering All US Gold Is Gone
http://chadlo415.blogspot.com/2011/05/russia-says-imf-chief-jailed-for.html
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Presented FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY (no animals were harmed, or commandments were violated in the posting of this message)... & I wasn't even dancing at the Thomas Jefferson Memorial either...
TJM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWeF6lwg4aY
I do admit to, on occasion, having done a SILLY WALK...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqhlQfXUk7w
@Amen
Just trying to lure traders back to ES
Yeah, but to do WHAT?
Run the S&P to 1500??? Or herd them into the barn to get skinned by letting themselves get lathered up on leverage one more time for old times sake???
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My guess...
Is that we start to see a bunch of confirmed "Hindenburg Omen's" between now and when the debt ceiling (notice I said 'WHEN') is raised...
Can't really have a QE3 without a debt ceiling raise (but I'm not a PhD like the Bernank)...
I suppose the 'hope' is for a repeat of the summer of 2007 (where everything managed somehow stay levitated thru October)...
Bucky just took a nosedive...
CV
What is really weird is that CME did the announcement before the market closed. I guess it was just a coincidence with no intention to interfere with the end of the month result. What a difference would have been to make the announcement at 4:30? This announcement was so important it could not wait to the end of the day.
Cacerolo
@Cacerolo
It was all a game to mess with the look of AMEN RA's 'monthly' candle sticks...
But he's from Chicago too, so he's used to this kinda stuff.
CV,
w/this:
"They apparently don't like CV (or his business) very much because they, what was it?, RAISED the margins on SLV something like 5 times back in the end of April to try and scare everyone away..."
In keeping with the idea of not taking all your comments at face value, I'll say up front I'm not sure if you are doing some snark here or not.
As you said not long ago there are apparently scores of readers of this site that never ever comment. Thinking some of these folks might be trying to learn a little about markets so I'm going to rip that comment apart now,.... no disrespect intended of course.
Full Disclosure: I lifted most of these links from Kid Dynamites site as he's blogged about this and many other things revolving around the PM's and silver in particular on a regular basis for many months now
First, the CME explained perfectly well why this was done here:
http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/clearing/understanding-margin-changes/
Here is Karl Denninger on it: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=185799
"For this reason the exchange doesn’t give a damn which way the price moves. They only care about volatility – the more volatile, the more dangerous things are for them, since the move might exceed the posted margin before someone is detected as being bankrupt. That can expose the exchange to ruinous loss. As they get paid a fixed amount per contract to facilitate the trade they have no interest in allowing that sort of thing to happen – nor will they.”
I realize there are plenty of conspiracy type reasons the evil banking cartel raised margin requirements, but to try and discourage people from buying silver at all sure as hell wasn't one of them, it was a basic business action which in turn probably saved a bunch of John and Mary's from getting burned even worse than they probably already did. Besides, people were bitching up a storm about this and you could still get 9:1 leverage after all the hikes....give me a break already, the vast majority of people should NEVER use leverage. 9:1 isn't enough? Those evil bastards!
And in the end, if one wants to even hint that it was the margin increases that "caused" the silver sell-off, well then you MUST CONCLUDE that it was LONGS that were out of control buying so many more futures contracts than they were ever capable of taking delivery of.
More for those interested:
http://www.metalaugmentor.com/eforum/?p=6750
"I appreciate Zero Hedge quoting my “old work” trying to explain the mysterious “registered” and “eligible” categories of COMEX warehouse bullion holdings. The thank you (and yes, it is sardonic) doesn’t come because I agree with the context in which the reference was used but because it lends instant credibility to my response herewith."
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/silver-margin-hikes-the-chicken-and-the-egg/
5/2/11: "The new COMEX margin requirements are $16,200 for initial margin, and $12,000 for maintenance margin. Silver closed today around $43.85, and each contract is for 5,000 ounces – so the requirement is for margin of less than 7.5%. Silver was down more than 8% today. That’s it – there need not be any more discussion or rage about this issue: today’s price movement proved that these margin rates are not too high!"
http://stonestreetadvisors.com/2011/05/10/yelling-from-the-margin/
In re: "Raising Margins"...
I always thot it was a 'red herring' of sorts. These guys mostly raise margins after big explosive moves higher when price swings get bigger and bigger. At the moment they raise margins, they're mostly hurting the folks who are short. I always thot it was a 'kick in the nuts'....i.e. the shorts are sitting their getting it jammed in their face day after day....barely holding on....then BLAMMO, they raise capital requirements on them.
Also, if the exchange is attempting to keep the "leverage ratio" at a somewhat constant rate, then margins would necessarily have to increase as prices go higher.
The exchanges are mostly trying to protect themselves....God forbid the day someone huge can't make a big margin call....THAT would induce some panic.
Really looking forward to the First Game tonight. My guess is the Mavericks take this first on in Miami in an "upset"....everyone freaks out calls the Heat overrated....
Then the Heat respond by winning the next two games.
Just sayin'
Go Mavs.
@ben22
"For this reason the exchange doesn’t give a damn which way the price moves. They only care about volatility – the more volatile, the more dangerous things are for them"
Perfect... I'll play...
And Scene: CME LOWERS ES, SP, YM Margins, Despite An INCREASE In Realized Vol
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-scene-cme-lowers-es-sp-ym-margins
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So... an increase in SLV vol. is dangerous, but an increase in stock indices not treated in the same way?
And ANOTHER thing...
Practically everything I say nowadays is [SNARK]... That's what happens when someone becomes "unhinged"...
For me... I'm not that smart... I'm still trying to figure out WTF I was trying to be HINGED to in the first place...
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&BTW... I ask you kindly again to refrain from putting words in my mouth (even accidentally) by typing things like:
"And in the end, if one wants to even hint that it was the margin increases that "caused" the silver sell-off, well then you MUST CONCLUDE that it was...
Actually... if I were a lawyer, I would have no PROOF that you singled me out personally (as you switched from ONE to YOU mid-sentence)...
In any case... here's what I actually SAID...
They apparently don't like CV (or his business) very much because they, what was it?, RAISED the margins on SLV something like 5 times back in the end of April to try and scare everyone away...
I didn't say "caused" on purpose... Because I have no proof... I have little doubt in my mind that that is what they were TRYING to do...
Whether objectives were satisfied is for smarter people than me to determine...
Look man... This is all pretty simple... CV gets labeled all the time here as being the resident "Conspiracy Theorist"...
All I really know (and constantly try to remind people of) is the following:
That there ARE groups of powerful entities (and have been throughout history), that IF (if, if, it) they could use their influence to control things in their favor, they would stop at nothing to do so)... How do I know that? Hell easy! Because I'd probably do it (or at least consider it) if I had the chance...
If one FAILS to consider that notion into one's trading (one is likely to be tossed about)...
In the end... THE MARKET will lay waste to those colluding powers... (emphasis on 'IN THE END' on that last statement)...
@Andy T
The exchanges are mostly trying to protect themselves....God forbid the day someone huge can't make a big margin call....THAT would induce some panic
See? The 'unsnarky' side of CV potentially agrees with that logic...
I mean, by 'lowering margins' here, they may be attempting to LESSEN the downside momentum of a rush to the exits as QE2 unwinds...
&/or allow whoever to get 'cheaper leveraged downside protection' (wink wink)
But back to the 'conspiracy' mode...
I doubt the CME just woke up and decided to lower margins (or hike them 5 times back in April)... Look - I'm even on board with SLV having had a ridiculous run-up to $50 (which I predicted - by the way - and also was highly skeptical that THAT RUN would extend further - though I'd have never stood against that possibility)...
I'm still quoted here on this blog in predicting a paper move perhaps down as far as $26... (Though I'm still hoping for a "4" handle print somewhere in-between)...
Ritholtz has it all figured out... it seems...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/fun-with-gold-bugs/
Ferrari's & Fiats bitchez!
Was going to say that BR's little stories/missives are becoming a little more 'detached' by the week.
Heat dominate the Mavs....probably not a good outcome for the Heat in the medium term. This team will probably 'let up' now....
@cv.
Vix is now at 16?
That's a pretty low measure of volatility. I'll check the ZH article, but it sure does seem like that the S&P has been in a bit of a 'sleeper hold' lately....
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