Todays trading tape...
Creditcane™: I will fight on. Rematch scheduled July 1, 2011.
SPXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and held 14.6% retrace (1352.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1363.61). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"
DXYSpinning top day (barely confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Still above SMA(21). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (74.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 72.93).
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Still above SMA(21). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (1514.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
VIXbearish long day (ocnfirmed dark cloud cover). Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(21). Failed its 14.6% retrace (16.75). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 18.40). Still in the "no fear" zone.
EURUSDHammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4833).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and held its 14.6% retrace (40.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.81).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (31.41). Still failing the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.23).
WTIBullish short day (confirmed morning star). Still above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (101.54). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.93).
SILVERBullish short day (confirmed morning star). Still above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the upper trend line. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (38.05). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.59). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"
BKXBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Still failing its 38.2% retrace (51.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 50.26).
EEMBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Back above weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 50.20).
AT's Silver Glimpse:
WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011
42 comments:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/blatant-wsj-revisionism-redlined-0
WSJ edits Op Ed of True Finn Timo Soini
LMAO
@qqqq
(from other thread)...
Well just on first 'look see'... It appears that LIBYA might be a flattener...
WHOCOODANODE???
Silver has seen a "grinding" move higher from last week's lows. It's very much in line with a "correction" of that move down. So, far that 'triangle' concept outlined on Sunday is playing out. Traders thinking we're going to go back to $50 need to ratchet down those expectations.
Jesus - 27 comments today? No wonder you're stalking us more than usual. Wasn't it you who used to make fun of your drive bye harassments were almost a third of our comments?
Funny how that worked out isn't it Andy?
@Thor.
Bwahahhahahahahah.
Yeah, I measure my days work by whether or not I can get 2-4 people to comment back and forth in a mindless sort of way on the merits of Socialism and how everyone is out to RAPE the common man.
I really failed today.
Added in a glimpse at Silver here....very basic chart indeed. It's in no man's land though...as a short term trade I'd like to sell higher levels...like $45/oz...alternatively I'd buy lower levels like $31....so, it's a 'no trade.' The good news is that it's volatile enough that we'll see one of those numbers in the next several days.
Bucky's chart looks short term constructive as well.
"Buy the dip or be the dip" next few days.
@Andy T
What STILL amazes me... And probably still will if the 'cartel' manages to con itself into believing it has control of the paltry $5B paper silver market is...
just that...
IT'S A PAPER MARKET (which reflects nothing except for the desire to suppress a spot price for as long as the CB's can print themselves enough FIAT to buy the bullion and stuff it in their vaults)...
Ignore that thesis, anyone, at your own whim...
Bottom line?
PAPER silver can do whatever it wants... PRICE isn't important... OUNCES IN YOUR HANDS are... (That's my DECADE LONG view)...
Andy, Thor, can you folks please "agree to disagree", ignore each others' blogs, and simply delete each others' posts when the other guy crosses the neutral zone?
Or, if you're going to engage each other, try to be diplomatic about it and discuss issues without acrimony?
CV, I agree.
Also, did you read on ZH about the hypothesis that the Fed is selling banks puts on Treasuries? So, imagine this:
- Fed holds off on QE3 and lets interest rates rise.
- We the Sheeple see the receding wave of Treasury prices and say "oooh! Look at those 'yield fish' flopping out there on the beach! *FINALLY*, 'savers' aren't being punished anymore. Let's go pick us up some yield!"
- Fed supplies banks with yet more cash two ways: (a) paying out on the puts and (b) increasing interest on excess reserves.
- Banks buy physical from sellers.
- QE3.
Oops, to complete the visual imagery, the last bullet shoulda said:
- QE3 wave rolls in.
@Thor
I'm pretty sure that you'll politely decline this invitation, but as for me... I might welcome some lively debate as to, let's call them, 'agenda's'... (by yourself, or any of your friends)...
I say this for a reason...
As you know... I haven't even logged in to your blog for quite a long time now... I can't even remember, but it must have been back in January or so (I'm sure you, being an IP sleuth, could figure that out easily)...
But listen... & I mean this in the nicest way... I 'MISS' reading most of the thoughts & comments that most of you would post... Even though the vast majority of it was 180 degrees polarized as to my way of thinking, it was, nonetheless, provocative...
& it just so happens that I'm the type that likes CONTROVERSY to stimulate the creative juices...
So here's the thing...
YOU... 'seem' to me to be a similar type to myself (witness, the ongoing struggle to keep 'Andy's' opinion from polluting your blog as you may define)...
But HERE... There's no such thing as polluting... It's NOT MY BLOG anymore (in fact: 'officially' I'm just an AUTHOR and have ZERO custodial or managerial rights)...
Still... What I'm saying is that if you ever want to express an opinion on a subject that MIGHT be debated or criticized (or LAUDED, as the case may be)... Drop it in...
Something inside me tells me it's GOTTA be healthy to be criticized or questioned now & then...
Dog knows CV is living proof!
I started 'vectoring' OFF into the idea that the FED & 'QE' was having an ABNORMAL effect on markets soon after 'Jackson Hole' last August... That POV did nothing but make me an ENEMY of most of the former frequent bloggers on this thread... & still does... apparently...
I'm still not sure where I'll stand in the long run with that call (MARKET WISE), but my PM calls (based on my POV) have been largely successful (for me - because I acted upon them)...
Those are the dynamics of what all of us are involved with... I can't see how WITHHOLDING OPINIONS benefits anyone...
Anyway - That's the gist of what I wanted to say...
Best regards...
CV
But, Andy...
>> a mindless sort of way on the merits of Socialism
"An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics."
- Plutarch
If you accept that plutocracy leads to bad results (banana republics, gross unfairness), how do you choose to combat it?
>> and how everyone is out to RAPE the common man.
You mean, the large corporations, free-market-busting oligopolists, the politicians, the Wall Streeters, priests, and union leaders are *not*??
Andy,
>> This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis.
I don't know if you've been too polite to tell me. But, if my "two cents" on political issues is a little, well, annoying, please let me know... (and then I'll post anonymously!! ~~Ha-HAAAaaa!~~)
(Just kidding on that.) ;-)
@wunsa (9:26)
I'm pretty much guessing that you're bullett points are rightly aligned...
The QE agenda, to me... seems to be a 'rinse & repeat' cycle...
Meaning: For... A PERIOD (either each year, or each 'TIMETABLE TO BE PREDETERMINED BASED ON GEO-POLITICAL TIMETABLES & OPPORTUNISTIC BLACK SWAN CONJURINGS')... The dollar can slowly be shepherded downhill, step by step in unison with other FIATS until the 'new world currency' is finally introduced...
The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because the CB's were taken by surprise in 2008 that the need for PHYSICAL would hit them so quickly...
Now it's just a race to PRINT themselves the CLOWNBUX (in organized 'gameplayer' order), to buy themselves the precious and stick it in their vaults...
Hopefully they'll keep mom & pop distracted enough with (D) & (R) debates, & DWTS to make it unnoticeable...
oh... & I meant to post this music video link in a previous thread...
CV's 'song of the evening'...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3tW61T8wDg&feature=related
@wunsacon.
Dude. I love your 2 cents on all matters. I don't mind a debate at all on different matters.
We've been able to engage without ever being ugly. Right?
I was raised by a HUGELY Democrat household in California...my mom sports an Obama picket sign in her front yard.
I love her all the same....
bwahahahaha.
@Andy T
OBAMA 2012!
Silver bitchez! :-)
Sorry if this was posted earlier... THE SILVER CRASH OF 2011?
oh, and I don't believe or disbelieve anything in this article just yet, still surveying it.
"That POV did nothing but make me an ENEMY of most of the former frequent bloggers on this thread... & still does... apparently"
please CV, hardly the truth that it was all about your point of view, whatever, your attitude and general use of language are what drove people away, you think if you were surrounded by one very vocal person each that told you were a moron over and over again for being a farmer that you might remove yourself from that? Oh, no way right?, because you just think it's healthy to have a debate. Give me a break. Maybe you should go back and read some of your posts, and remember that some people here trade/are involved with markets for a living. there are certainly ways to express your point of view without tearing down the choices that others make.
@Andy T
RON PAUL 2012!
Bob Prechter bitchez! (Stack those hundos in your closet - but keep the termites away)...
@wunsa@9.35
I guess my major beef with all the whining is to assume that "this time" is much different than any other time.
I think it's always been the same. In every economic situation, somebody loses and somebody wins.
In general, though, the Capitalism model that's been around for a few hundred years now, has ushered in MIND BLOWING advances in civilization and general conditions.
The typical middle income American enjoys access to things, and a lifestyle, that could have only been dreamed of by the 'rich people' hundred years ago.
All the worlds information is available via the Internet. Anyone can have a car. You can fly to most places. Air conditioning in homes is pretty cool. Central Heat can be "swell" on a cold night. We have single stores that contain anything we might need or want.
Every aspect of our lives are taken for granted. People want to "snipe" about how the Sheeple are getting fleeced...maybe they are...but compare the life of the "average" person now to 100 years ago.
Are things better or worse?
I think we sometimes lose the forest from the trees.
Color me the OPTIMIST. I'm seeing the world through rose colored glasses.
"There are certainly ways to express your point of view without tearing down the choices that others make."
Indeed.
OK ben...
I apologize PROFUSELY for having come to the conclusion that the DESPERATE STATE of central banks is to pull out all former 'stilts' of reason as a reaction to their OFF-FOOTED-NESS with regards to the financial crisis...
---
I must be WRONG...
Forgive me for my ignorance... I'll try to limit myself herewith to 'horse picks', & fantasy football since I CLEARLY have nothing to offer on the economic forefront...
I've sat down with well over 800 families since I started my job and had detailed discussions about their spending/financial habits and reviewed the personal ledgers.
my personal view is the average Joe has tendency to fleece himself and people make a lot of insane financial decisions because of their own financial selfishness and greed. It's hardly all about them getting screwed, no doubt that's happening to someone, but a lot of people are a mess and it's got nothing to do with anything but their own horrible decisions.
CV,
thanks for not reading my post at all, as I just explained that it had nothing to do with that stuff. but thats cool, hopefully we'll all be around to see how it ends.
ben22@10.18.
Good stuff there.
Personal responsibility is in short supply.
@ben
please CV, hardly the truth that it was all about your point of view, whatever, your attitude and general use of language are what drove people away
---
Yeah ben... AS I understand, it was all about my 'ATTITUDE'...
Look - sorry it [my 'attitude' towards FIAT] doesn't jive so much anymore with that of yourself... OR I-MAN or KAREN...
I really HOPE (for ALL of your sakes), that the dollar goes back to 1.20 DXY... (& that you all cash in on FIAT 'etf's' in the process)... KING DOLLAR - Larry Kudlow-ites...
I really do!!! Because even that scenario would not harm me personally...
All I do on (on this blog) is offer a voice... It appears that my VOICE is about as welcome as it would be on Thor's blog...
CV:
I've said this to you personally in the past. I think you're POV is interesting and relevant.
Some of your "bigger" calls on Silver, etc have been very good and correct.
Kudos and Congrats on those views.
I would suggest, though, that your 'debating style' can be a bit rough and over the top.
Please consider Ben's comment: "There are certainly ways to express your point of view without tearing down the choices that others make."
I personally don't care too much what is said to me. I don't think Ben cares too much either. Some of us have really thick skins. Most people do not...
I'm due for a trip to the Maryland area in the next few months....maybe I can still get an 'invite?'
>> Dude. I love your 2 cents on all matters. I don't mind a debate at all on different matters.
Thanks, Andy.
>> We've been able to engage without ever being ugly. Right?
Right, indeed.
" It appears that my VOICE is about as welcome as it would be on Thor's blog..."
Negative.
Any comment you have would be immediately deleted.
You could write: "Obama's the BEST! We need to totally redistribute the wealth to the poor people."
It would be deleted...
Bwahahahahaha
CV,
I didn't really think that comment was so much directed toward me since I'm still posting here, but either way you're still missing the point, linking the words moron traders in the same statement could be offensive to people. Not speaking for anyone, just telling you how it might come across, on a trading blog no less. Nothing at all to do with any of your views on fiat, the intrinsic value of silver, tilapia, or the NFL Draft.
>> In general, though, the Capitalism model that's been around for a few hundred years now, has ushered in MIND BLOWING advances in civilization and general conditions.
The "trade" model (which I'm unable to distinguish from "capitalism") has been developing for tens of thousands of years, in parallel with the "sharing" model. The sharing part (when not done "stupidly" -- in ways that motivate people to engage in counterproductive behavior) has helped more people get in on the game and, in turn, push society along faster.
What I dislike seeing is: After a golden era between WWII and 1980, we started trending back to a "winner take all" society, like the monarchies, feudal societies of yore. I prefer to see our society run a little bit more like the NFL (with its "revenue sharing") than MLB!
@Andy T
An 'INVITE' to yourself is always on the table...
As well as it is for BEN himself... AMEN, BRUCE, AHAB, 72, WUNSA, 18 (qqqq), Mel, Cacerolo, Bertie, Prashant, bob, Matthew, LB ... or even karen or I-Man...
Fuck... It even goes for Denise, Thor, or Manny for crying out loud...
You know what made me THE MOST happy camper today?... I'll tell you...
---
It's been a BITCH OF A FUCKING MONTH FOR CV (April/May)... I think I told you all a month ago that the "CV estate partnership" is getting another 3 acres on the Potomac River in WVA... Well, that is true... But it also involves selling the homestead in Maryland...
Great house, great location... Bitch is... It needs a few 'cosmetics' to bring it to market standards... I've been working my buns off to make that happen (& along the same while, dealing with the spring plantings & the 3rd property)... TRUTH IS... I'm basically failing... I CAN'T HANDLE IT ALL on my own (& so I'm delegating my failings on the fly to get ALL OF THEM DONE)...
Anyway - Despite what may seem overwhelming by that last paragraph... That's actually NOT my worry (cause I'm an OPTIMIST, like Andy T)...
What made me 'happy' (& sad) today was this... I was returning back to MD from WVA, whereby I have to pass under a one lane railroad bridge...
Suprisingly... There was this scraggly dude when I came thru the other end that was holding two empty water jugs in his hand and waving at me... I stopped to ask him "what do you need"???
Turns out he just needed some HELP (food, water, money)...
I was very happy because I happened to have a half a pork roast in a baggie, about $4 change, and about 6 cans of beer in the truck... I just gave it all to him...
I don't know the rest of the story there... But I tell you... All off these IDIOT blogs talk about TEOTWAWKI... I just hope that if it ever becomes that bad, that there's enough humanity around to keep everyone EVENED OUT in that way... I'll just keep doing my part if & when the situation hits me randomly...
I know that (in myself) already... Even though I'm an ASSHOLE trader & 'BLOG PERSON TEARER DOWNER'...
Technology Anecdote du Jour:
So, my early evening begins with:
Wife: "I've got some bad news."
Me: "What is it? Just tell me."
Wife: "The Dryer is broken."
Me "What's wrong with it? Won't turn on or won't heat?"
Wife: "It won't heat."
So, I check it out...the positive lead going in is fryed and the rest of them look "bad" as well. The washer/dryer are SEVERAL years old now....
My gut reaction, not wanting to spend any time on this AT ALL, is:
"Just Go buy a new Dryer. Get a Gas one this time. It's cheaper than electric in the long run."
Wife: "It just cost me $4 bucks a gallon to fill up. Are you sure?!"
Me: "Honey. You're so pretty..."
Back to "technology"...
I was able to quickly look up the exact model online and found the exact part I needed. Should be here in two days....
No repairman needed. No new dryer. Just an online parts distributer and UPS.
I 'managed' to do it without an Apple product involved.
Love it.
@ben
"linking the words moron traders in the same statement could be offensive to people. Not speaking for anyone, just telling you how it might come across, on a trading blog no less"
---
That's TOTALLY understood!
But, IRONICALLY, It's NOT going to stop me from expressing my heartfelt POV...
I don't care if I'm WRONG!
I've been WRONG enough times in my life to make a difference (an ECONOMIC difference)... But that DOESN'T stop me from expressing my POV (in fact, it MOTIVATES me to do so)...
Why?
Because I 'wish' there had been enough COMMUNICATION EXCHANGE in my lifetime tenure to have had dissenting POV's... Instead? There wasn't... So I was left to make my own choices... Oftentimes... BAD CHOICES!...
At this point... I could really give a FF if someone is 'thin skinned', or 'young', or whatever...
A voice is a voice... Deal with it as you wish... That's up to intuition... If you're not skilled at that, then you're not likely to be very successful with anything ELSE dealing with human interaction...
& let me be CLEAR...
If you think 'MARKETS' are the ultimate expression of HUMAN INTERACTION... Then you'd better take more than one moment to reflect on my previous paragraph...
"After a golden era between WWII and 1980"
Be careful with some of the "eras" you're citing. The Allied forces destroyed the industrial capacity of most of our competition during WWII. When the world need to 'rebuild,' the USA was the obvious building yard.
So, some of that "growth" and "golden age" post WWII came at a pretty high price.
@Andy T (11:22)
Yeah... FUCK THAT... (Sorry - CV, again in his nominally reprehensible OFFENSIVE posture)...
PRECHTER & all the dollar dudes want to point out things like the "flight to the dollar" during the Great Depression...
Yeah right...
Wasn't that when the DOLLAR was backed by gold & there were no viable competing currencies???
King Dollar rebuttals coming in 5...4...3...
Andy, yes, I'm aware of the strong wind that helped propel the US Empire along and develop its middle class. So, it will be quite challenging for us to generate the kind of widespread prosperity growth for the masses in the face of a strong "reversion-to-the-global-mean" headwinds.
Andy,
A colleague once told me a view of "Americans vs. Europeans". He said something like "Americans are the people who left old Europe and struck out on their own. They're more entrepreneurial, by nature." It wouldn't 've been appropriate for me to debate that with him on that at the time (in a meeting where the topic was something else!). But, my thought on that is: "in a petri dish, the spore colony will expand outwards and consume the rest of the culture. Are the spores at the outer edges somehow different, better, or 'entrepreneurial'? No. This is just what spores do, given a nice little dish in which to grow."
Similarly, when I look at our economy/society, I don't see a few billionaire humans doing so much better work than others that they deserve it. What I see is a *SYSTEM* (petri dish) of:
- technology inherited from the prior generation of scientists (IMHO, this "capital" is more important than the "capital" of gold/silver/fiat that's ever been mined/printed -- because PM/fiat only control "who gets how much of the pie we can bake this year in history" and do not determine the size of the pie)
- availability/consumption of natural resources
- property laws
- stable society
- hard work (often by many, not just the "winners")
- luck
When I see multi-sigma deviations in "rewards" some humans pull out versus what they put in, I "see" luck playing too strong a hand in the outcome. At an emotional level, it strikes me as "injustice".
This is subjective, of course. Maybe it doesn't strike you that way. Maybe you focus less on these other systemic characteristics and focus more on what each per person decided to do with his/her life. From long discussions with a libertarian pal at work, I think that's where some disagreement lies between me and economically-right-of-center colleagues.
...And with that, good night!
" But, my thought on that is: "in a petri dish, the spore colony will expand outwards and consume the rest of the culture. Are the spores at the outer edges somehow different, better, or 'entrepreneurial'? No. This is just what spores do, given a nice little dish in which to grow.""
~~~~~~
It's an interesting point. My redneck rebuttal would be: "If you ain't growin', you're dyin'"
~~~~~~~~~~~
"When I see multi-sigma deviations in "rewards" some humans pull out versus what they put in, I "see" luck playing too strong a hand in the outcome. At an emotional level, it strikes me as "injustice"."
Tough one there. If I invent the "light bulb," in a time of perpetual darkness, what's my reward? If I prove to the world "Calculus" a la Newton, what's my reward? If I were in a lab with 500 other scientists all funded by one rich guy and we discovered the cure for Cancer, what's the reward for that? Who gets what?
It's a tough one to reconcile. Should the state be able to limit those rewards? Should the state be able to confiscate those leaps in human knowledge/achievement?
Perpetual discussion I suppose.
>> Perpetual discussion I suppose.
I accept! ;-)
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