HUI (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 606.25
rev= 504.77; mid= 555.51
The gold bugs are not making new highs like gold. They're not breaking down either. It's holding its SMA(21) and the midpoint of the long candle (from the week ending 4/8/11). It is also trading above its monthly 3LB reversal price.
Swiss Franc (weekly info)new high 1.1294
trend=up
high= 1.1294
rev= 1.0799; mid= 1.1047
The SNB obvious has had enough with intervention and is letting the Swiss Franc rise. It's well above all of the SMA's. I know they are feeling the pain but what can they do?
USDJPY (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 84.80
rev= 80.93; mid= 82.87
After hours shows the USDJPY trading below 82. It's quickly approaching the area that intervention may be needed/required/begged for/on bended knee. The fact that DXY is using depth charges to clear the way for new lows isn't helping matters.
36 comments:
@Amen
The SNB obvious has had enough with intervention and is letting the Swiss Franc rise. It's well above all of the SMA's. I know they are feeling the pain but what can they do?
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April 20th
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/04/morning-corner-42011.html?showComment=1303299336559#c4830804580855890765
CHF
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/04/morning-corner-42011.html?showComment=1303300838416#c3047962848108210783
WEEKLY/MONTHLY 3lb candles closing tomorrow...
Don't forget that the QUARTERLY 3lb candle last month was at a new high for things like silver as well...
CV
Once CHF took out the high from Dec 10 it was onwards and upwards. There was one more takedown in the first week of 2011 but that didn't last long.
1Q GDP 1.8%
Initial Claims 429k (exp 390k)
@Steve/Love the gold trend
previous thread,
I have no wave count on the dollar unfortunately but I would agree with you on the view of it, that's it's bearish and points lower is how the charts look, 60's wouldn't shock me at all at this point.
holding a handful of individual names right now that found good support recently at long term trendlines, mostly large caps. I was long LULU recently and yesterday I bought some at the money puts for May on it. I'm checking out some out of the money calls on a few things/S&P in case this inverse H&S is true, I don't believe that it's been confirmed yet and a throwback from here could and often does diminish the performance of the minimum measurement setting up the bull trap Andy mentioned in his most recent S&P update, so I'm not taking any action here yet, just setting up orders on either side of the pattern that will trigger at certain price points, it should be a good one to trade in either direction.
Hope you've been killing it in the PM's.....what an awesome run.
The problem is not what it seems to be. It is an extreme lack of confidence in the way the country is being led, both economically and otherwise. Anyone in the stock market who has had guts enough to stay the course has not done it because they think we are back on course. They've done it because it seemed the most prudent course of action to extreme federal reserve moves and to governmental response to the bust.
Here in this area older people used to be some of the movers and shakers. However, since they've had to become much more cautious with a limited amount of lifetime money, you no longer see them buying new cars or pushing for new projects. They've just become very cautious. So has much of the rest of the landscape.
Unemployment numbers are surprising, but not unduly so.
Burden on the bulls to keep this alleged "breakout" going on the S&P.
jbtfd until the dollar hits a 6 handle
Silver unbelievable. Very powerful.
I think one could argue the neckline on the H&S has yet to be truly broken. 3% breaking is the common rule, I think you are a nut job if you trade on any break of a neckline before at least 3%, if the line comes in at about 1337 then you are looking for a break of ~1375-1377 before the pattern is confirmed.
likely the main reason you see people complain that H&S don't work, it's not the pattern, it's the trader jumping the gun. The minimum target is up around 1450.....I repeat....minimum
I await the real break, if one had followed the rule like this in 09 you would not have been short that Head and Shoulders, you would have instead traded long the false break.
I think CV said it the other day but the size and position of this pattern makes it likely we'll see some sort of break-away gap to make that 3% break happen, I agree with that idea.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in the fourth.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in
the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth.
PMIC
is that a breakout? it broke $15 with some authority finally after three trys (look at a two year chart)
will spend some more time on this one.
ben22: That's a useful measurement...3% away from the neckline....
Wait. Is today the day the US breaks the debt subject to limit?
AT,
the nice thing about the 3% rule is it also gives the trader time to see if (in this case) a throwback is going to occur. When throwbacks happen they will generally diminish the performance of the H&S.
I set up orders on either side of the pattern, one of the two will hit, I could care less which one.
Might be doing some tricky fitting here but there is a pennant today that played out to the upside, pennants are like flags in that they often come at the half way point, one might consider that this recent leg started with the open gap on 4/26 after a few days of sideways consolidation, putting the target of the pennant up around that 1370's zone where the H&S 3% zone is
that seems to be further indication that if/when we get up there it is a crucial zone.
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm
Big Picture
•Things can obviously be a lot better still in the labor market, but the drift lower in initial claims is helping to improve attitudes about job security that are important as a spending catalyst (not as important as income gains, but important nonetheless).
Category Apr 23 Apr 16 Apr 9 Apr 2 Mar 26
Initial Claims 429K 404K 416K 385K 392K
...."Drift lower in Initial Claims?" This is one interpretation, I suppose...
Those Tornado videos in Tuscaloosa are astounding.
I think 1375 is also one of QQQ's 18 targets.
Is there a straight up Inverse Silver ETF? All i know of is the ultra short ZSL.
@Andy
Tweet Nic...SSIL on the LSE.
Thanks Mel. What's "tweet" mean?
Kidding....
Not a social media person. Just say "no" to Facebook and Twitter.
@QOTD
"Who let the dogs out?"
Baja Boys
Andy T
Searched my data provider. The only silver short they have is ZSL. Everything else is long silver or silver miners.
This SP500 not acting like it's "busting out" of a head and shoulder setup. Color me unimpressed so far....
Indirects Flee Poor 7 Year Auction
Indirects Flee From Poor 7 Year Auction Which Pushes Bond Curve Wider
Today's final auction of the week just closed in the form of a $29 billion 7 year bond issue (Cusip: QG8). While we will find out whether or not this is the auction that broke the debt ceiling camel's back when everything settles on Tuesday of next week, the internals were downright ugly: the WI of the bond was trading at 2.68% when the auction priced at 2.712%, a surprisingly wide tail into what everyone claims is a risk free asset. As a result the entire curve has been dragged wider on the news. Among the internals, the Bid To Cover came at 2.63, far weaker than both the previous (2.80) and the average (2.79). But the most notable metric as usual was the Indirect Bid, which traditionally strong at the belly of the curve, saw only 39.1% of the auction going to foreign bidders. This compares to 49.31% in the last auction and 51.45% on average. This meant that Primary Dealers, better known as Brian Sack, were forced to preemptively monetize 53% of the auction, and 7.8% going to Directs. Overall a very poor auction, considering that conventional wisdom was that when the Fed launches QE3 it will focus on bonds at the belly and to the right, in order to moderate inflation. Hopefully (for some) this is not a harbinger that the Bill Gross thesis is finally starting to materialize.
h/t zerohedge.com
I'll be at Lollapalooza this year....
That's the best lineup I've seen in a long time.
http://www.lollapalooza.com/
@Andy
Actually...I'm not into social media either...the hipster in me thought it might look good;-)
Given that...apparently fewer people are blogging...and more twittering.
I guess attention spans aren't already short enough.
New Foo fighters album is pretty sweet.
Bright Eyes....best songwriter of my generation, I'm a fan. Arctic Monkeys....yeah, lots of cool bands
the Cars? Sweet......
Sort of stopped liking Coldplay after they ripped that song off, and by association I think it's silly that Gwenyth is now a "country singer" but A Rush of Blood to the Head is still a great album.
August is a great time to come to Chicago (lollapalooza visitors) because you're pretty much guaranteed that there won't be snow.
If silver closes this week near its high it will make a weekly hanging man candle. But since the color of the candle is the same as the trend the bearishness is diminished.
can't believe imelda may has such a low billing on that line-up
Whoops...I still have old fashioned room keys for McCormick Place and the Palmer House.
Hee hee. DXY fought long and hard to avoid closing under 73 today.
It would be be "funny" if Bucky bottomed post-Bernank Q&A....
Playing in a Texas Hold 'Em tournament tonight....gotta make the money some way...ha ha.
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