Rough Rice (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 12.90
rev= 15.89; mid= 14.40
Countries who depend on rice daily are probably getting worried that it's about to become unaffordable again. This week it's testing its weekly 3LB mid, SMA(89) and SMA(21). We saw what happened when prices got out of control the last time. Just sayin'
Corn (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
low= 768.00
rev= 661.25; mid= 714.63
Another food staple that is continuing its march higher. Ethanol doesn't help matters either. MACD(9,15,1) has crossed above zero. Williams %R is not overbought. Another reason that all will not be well in the near future.
IYR (weekly info)new high 60.58
trend=up
high= 60.58
rev= 59.57; mid= 60.08
I find it odd that housing prices are still declining yet this real estate ETF continues to advance. A quick look at its holdings indicate that the majority of real estate may be commercial. That shoe is going to drop soon enough.
54 comments:
It just seems to me here that the expanding balloon of credit must deflate. Standard and Poors with another credit warning, this time about Japan. I don't expect the Japanese government to say this was a "political decision" as our present bunch of nimrods did. But the fact is that credit becomes a new expense unless it is repudiated, and it just seems we've come to the tipping point.
@Amen
"I find it odd that housing prices are still declining yet this real estate ETF continues to advance. A quick look at its holdings indicate that the majority of real estate may be commercial. That shoe is going to drop soon enough.
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/04/morning-corner-42611.html?showComment=1303847610431#c5219520053070272228
"it just seems we've come to the tipping point..."
---
It just seems we've come to the KICKING point (as in - can down the road)...
There... Fixed it!
I had lost track of the ol' Rough Rice. That pattern does look constructive for sure.
Carl Lewis kicked off primary ballot due to residency requirement
http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/blog/fourth_place_medal/post/Carl-Lewis-kicked-off-primary-ballot-due-to-resi?urn=oly-wp139
"Democrats are expected to appeal.
They say Lewis purchased a home for his mother in New Jersey in 2005 and bought another one for himself in 2007. Though he signed the contract that August, Guadagno determined Lewis didn't move in until after the Nov. 8 deadline. She also cited Lewis' recent voting record in California as a reason in her decision. Lewis last voted in California in 2009."
---
So let's see... He BOUGHT houses in 2005 & 2007 (right at the top of the housing bubble)...
Yup - sure sounds like the kinda guy Democrats want on the ticket!
And he VOTED in California in 2009??? 2009???
For what?
Is that another one of those "vote early - vote often states?
Beuller?
Looks like we'll take out 1350, will it hold?
SPX minor 18's...
1368
1350... you are here
1332
1314
1296
SPX major 18's...
1588
1537
1456
1375... you are going here, (not yet buddy)
1244
1112
1006
Anyone see I-Man or Karen lately?
This is the fourth opening gap up since 4/20/11. The rubberband can only stretch so far.
...on the 30 min SPX chart.
Obama addressing important news today....His Birth Certificate.
You'd think this would have been addressed at the time he ran for President.
This whole thing seems a bit silly to me.
If CSCO can break the 50 here it may be headed to $20?
it's in a nice channel right now, mid point of the channel is around the ~$18.10.
Ra,
I'd guess today's gap completely closed before the day is over, it's a tiny little gap on what I'd think is going to be a volatile afternoon. I think the 4/20 open gap is probably the most important since the most recent lows, apparently traders were coming out guns blazing that day....er, something was blazing that day, maybe not guns.
@Andy T
He called the investigation "amusing"...
First of all, if it was so AMUSING, why did he spend $2,000,000 to keep it sealed for so long?
Amusing (to me) would be to save the money if it was so easy to prove all along...
@Andy T
Also... on that Obama birth certificate...
It lists the age of his MOTHER as 18...
Her birthday is November 29, 1942...
9 months later? August 4?
Cutting it kinda close that Daddy-O wasn't a statutory rapist...
Speaking of Obama, saw this on Dealbreaker the other day:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703461504576231121265117538.html
Daniel Loeb, founder of Third Point LLC, was one of the biggest Obama fund-raisers in 2008, rounding up $200,000 for him, according to campaign-finance records. In the decade prior, Mr. Loeb and his wife donated $250,000 to Democrats and less than $10,000 to Republicans. But since Mr. Obama’s inauguration, Mr. Loeb has given $468,000 to Republican candidates and the GOP, and just $8,000 to Democrats. Hedge-fund kings have feelings, too, and the president appears to have hurt them…Mr. Loeb is part of a shift in political allegiance within the world of hedge funds that also includes such big names as Steven Cohen’s SAC Capital Advisors and Kenneth Griffin’s Citadel Investment Group. Managers and employees of hedge funds directed a majority of their contributions to the GOP in the 2009-2010 election season, a pattern not seen since 1996, when the industry was much smaller.
Any thoughts on AZN chart?
But I'm sure 'Daddy-O' didn't INHALE the poody before Nov 29 of the previous year...
ben22. Let's face it, there was some heavy vitriol directed towards the rich hedge fund guys...I know where my dollars would be flowing in response.
Think if I were a legit GOP Candidate, I wouldn't be mentioning the whole birther issue...leave it to the fringe folks.
AT,
Can't imagine the recent ignoramous statements about gas/speculators from the O are going to do anything but encourage them to send more capital to the GOP. Indeed, this shouldn't be a surprise at all.
Looks like WTI is taking that "leg" down...trying to fulfill that small scale H&S.
@Andy T
I was born in 1960... My birth certificate has footprints on it...
Guess they didn't do that in Hawaii...
it also shows my weight...
@Andy T
But really... The thing that bothers me most about the issue is the 'expediency' factor...
The basic idea that MOST PEOPLE DON'T CARE...
Or, they don't care enough to poke holes in the subject and ask legitimate questions...
When faced with legitimate questions, the tactic quickly shifts...
Fine... So we're supposed to swallow "hook, line, & sinker" that it's all LEGIT...
You can't even go into a DMV in the United States with a photocopy of a birth certificate and get a drivers license...
Anyway - again - what bothers me most is the lack of diligence to really settle the issue... It would seem that it is in the interests of ALL to do so...
AT,
That WTI chart you posted had a lot going for it, the H&S was probably the best pattern but one could argue a descending triangle or perhaps even a diamond formation depending on what time frame you were looking at, like a 60 minute vs. a 120,. the diamond is probably a stretch, it's a very profitable pattern but really hard to find in real time, I could force one on there though, if I had to.
@Ra,
Just curious, do you have any stick patterns you like to trade in particular or do you primarily use the 3lb for execution?
My guess is that the issue is still far from over... whether people want it to be or not...
What's missing so far is a Congressional inquiry (like when Clinton was "impeached" for lying under oath about Monica Lewinsky)...
These press conferences mean nothing...
I'd agree as much as the next person that it would be another waste of time for Congress to take up this subject... But I wouldn't doubt that it has crossed some minds, and could be wheeled out at any given time...
triangle with false breakout up on the daily?
ben22
Primarily 3LB. The market during the last few years has gone out of its way to negate reversal candle patterns.
Obama could have nipped the allegations in the bud a couple of years ago...or conversely, never dignified them with a response. Sans footprints..he opens himself up to "debate" about a counterfeit certificate.
Might not be a bad strategy if you want to deflect the hoi-polloi from something else...and don't misconstrue this CV...it's not "aimed" at you;-)
For a couple of minutes there...I forgot all about the Bernank...and today's to-do list.
I'm selling WTI here at 111.80. will run a stop at 112.20.
Mel...
"hoi polloi"....fantastic expression.
I thought it was common;-)
I'm working it into a conversation at some point today... maybe try to combine "rigmarole" and "hoi polloi" into the same sentence....
Sounds like a food truck menu.
The ol' headfake on the WTI....
As ben has pointed out...the "false" break of a H&S necklines are rippers and profitable going the other way. Geezo.
@Andy T/Mel
Even better... "AHOY POLLOI" (from marina scene in Caddyshack)...
Nobody thinks I can rally or that Precious Metals can fall.
@Ra,
I have no evidence of this but it seems like the best one's are evening star/morning star patterns
@AT,
I think people are going to get burned on the H&S on $spx, it's "too easy" seems all too similar to the big one in summer 09.
@CV
There's a bit of weirdness in the world which is hard to define...but certainly enjoyable. The recent golf talk had me thinking of youthful caddying jobs (and Caddyshack) a few minutes ago...and of going in the bush for a Taylormade...and coming out with rain gear loaded with morels...worth a couple of boxes of the things.
ben22
I like the hanging man an inverted hammer as single reversal indicators. Engulfing as two day patterns.
I'm full of beans today...but the weathers gorgeous...the birds are singing...and I have to run...quite literally.
FOMC statement pretty much word for word as the previous statement. Duh. No mention of QE3. Maybe that's being held for the press conference.
I think in the 'press conference' he'll come out and tell us that subprime is contained...
That's what I'm waiting for... You know... the "all clear - steady as she goes"...
Because I need to be CERTAIN before I make any trades...
i like how he's being called the Bernank even on CNBC
Rosie a bull now...
"If the bull market will end when the last grizzled bear comes out of his den and comes to the table, then hold onto your portfolio, because it may well be dinnertime.
David Rosenberg, the curmudgeonly senior strategist and economist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, told clients Wednesday in his daily newsletter that he’s finally given up his long-held position that the market is heading for a thud, if not an all-out crash.
Even as the major averages have risen 90 percent off their March 2009 lows, Rosenberg hasn’t been convinced, arguing that the economy is still too weak and investor sentiment way too giddy to justify such a relentless rally."
Whoa.
DR ....
Geez.
Do you want to be right or do you want to make money?
I see Rosenberg has reached the same conclusion I have. I am still sh!t-baked about the future and none of the problems appear to have been even scratched the surface of being solved but it is what it is.
Stay nimble my friends.
@Andy/McHappy
It takes a lot of strength and endurance to swim against a never ending current of fiat being blown in your face everyday...
Not to mention the fact that THAT (despite occasional bouts of rhetoric), is what the 'sheeps' seem to be happiest with because it possibly puts off starving until tomorrow, and/or gives them yet another day to use that FIAT to buy something of lasting value...
In the past 3 years, I've got quite a collection of big cardboard boxes (from all the longer term big ticket things to help cope)...
So at worst, my cardboard box under the interstate will be a McMansion :-)
"A strong economy would be good for the dollar"
Here's what all the E-Trade babies had to say about that:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visual-summary-bernankes-prepared-answers-prepared-questions
Damn. Almost forgot that this week is EOM also.
@Amen
Hey Amen... Dig all those fancy little "slanty" bars on the charts from that link (on the last/open)
Overall - I'm kind of disappointed in the news conference...
I was hoping Bernanke would say something truly inspirational like:
"Due to recent advancements in helicopter technology, the time it takes me to "fix" things has been reduced from 15 minutes to 13 minutes"...
Wow, that is one hell of a powerful move up in silver.
@ Matthew, 4:05 PM
That looks like organic demand to me. STL
I'm not comfortable holding silver anymore. When I go into the city on Friday, I'm going to swap my silver bullion for platinum. In addition to relative value, I will also save precious space in my safe.
@Andy/McHappy
It takes a lot of strength and endurance to swim against a never ending current of fiat being blown in your face everyday...
@CV
"It takes a lot of strength and endurance to swim against a never ending current of fiat being blown in your face everyday...
Not to mention the fact that THAT (despite occasional bouts of rhetoric), is what the 'sheeps' seem to be happiest with because it possibly puts off starving until tomorrow, and/or gives them yet another day to use that FIAT to buy something of lasting value..."
No doubt - agreed.
There is a big difference between having your opinions and profiting from them versus having your opinions and losing money from them.
Opinions and outlooks can very much differ from current investment positioning.
One thing I love about Glenn Neely is he doesn't try to make a count work. If the charts change, so does his opinion, and he doesn't apologize for it.
So, again, do you want to be right or do you want to make money?
I'd be wrong everyday of the week as long as I was profiting while doing it.
For example, I'm an uber-bear - I've never lost that. But I've been long much more frequent than short the last few months. Despite wondering how the fallout of this is going to look, when that time comes I'll be sure to change my position so that it falls in lines with my opinions.
I guess what I am trying to say is I would rather make money and be wrong on my outlook than lose money and be wrong on my outlook - in the intermediate term.
BTW, does anyone know if EWI is still calilng for P3? I ask seriously.
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