DXY (weekly info)new low 74.11
trend=down
low= 74.11
rev= 75.72; mid= 74.92
DXY is doing all it can to avoid taking out last weeks low. Probably can hold the low until BB's press conference. It's getting to the point that no matter what BB says the DXY will continue to move lower. NO QE3 then DXY falls to prop up the market. More QE3 then DXY falls because of dollar debasement. Win -win.
90 Day UST (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 0.040
rev= 0.160; mid= 0.100
Doesn't look like traders believe the Fed will be raising rates at this weeks meeting.
2s-30s Spread (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 4.01
rev= 3.53; mid= 3.77
This spread has been trading sideways for a few weeks now. It has been making higher lows. It also has been able to get back above its weekly 3LB mid. It has a declining wedge look to it where the apex the very near.
52 comments:
Case-Shiller WTE (again): http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-fall-again-in-feb-case-shiller-2011-04-26
-3.3% YoY
DXY has already tested its low from last week of 73.74. Ruh roh?
On the 30min SPX chart today was the 3rd opening gap up. The 3rd is usually the exhaustion gap.
A few Refineries down in Texas City today with power outtage issues....causing a rally in cracks.
Anyone else see Memphis dismantle San Antonio last night? Tim Duncan looking like an old man at the age of 35.
Even stayed up and watched OK vs DEN (who fell apart).
They are really, really trying to take out 1344. Hoping to trigger buy stops.
Consumer confidence rises. Hope (hoping for relief) & change (do yo have any spare?).
The previous high (1344.07) has been breached. So now what?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-dealers-warn-over-debt-ceiling-2011-04-26
Wall Street dealers warn over debt ceiling
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Wall Street dealers of Treasury securities on Tuesday ratcheted up the pressure on Congress to lift the debt ceiling, warning of the potential disruptions to financial markets and the broader economy from not acting.
In a letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner but squarely aimed at Congress, the dealers identified six possible negative consequences from not raising the ceiling. Geithner, speaking in New York on Tuesday, separately called on Congress to raise the ceiling and expressed confidence that the Republican leadership understands the implications of not doing so. Republicans are in control of the House of Representatives and have demanded unspecified spending concessions in return for increasing the debt limit.
“Action is urgently needed to increase the statutory debt limit,” said J.P. Morgan executive Matthew Zarnes, the chairman of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. “Swift action would also help ease the existing uncertainty in financial markets that could begin translating into real market impacts well before Treasury exhausts extraordinary actions at its disposal to postpone a default.”
DXY has already tested its low from last week of 73.74. Ruh roh?
Hate to sound like a broken record... But I think that DXY is pining to visit those 72ish & 70ish levels... (been saying that for quite awhile now)...
Then - you have the Labor Day holiday in Europe next week (market open here)... Easy to move prices to hit targets on those dynamics...
Euro at 1.46... (above 143.50 - to me - still says it's going to 1.50)...
So... ARBITRAGE - ARBITRAGE - ARBITRAGE for these days (between forex & 'mods)...
& for fun... You have the Bernank doing his press conference tomorrow... My only question is, which direction will it take? (and if you THINK I'm referring to 'policy' - naw, I'm thinking more along these lines)...
PLAYOFFS?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE
THE BEARS ARE WHO WE THOT THEY WERE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_N1OjGhIFc&feature=related
THIS AIN'T NO JOKE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucoioaAMEQs
I'm 40... I'M A MAN
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-lBP0Adb5g&feature=related
---
Should compete with DWTS for 'ratings'...
S&P500...no problems setting a new high today....
@Andy T
S&P500...no problems setting a new high today...
All just a proxy for the worthless dollar (which will get a brief bounce someday - but is doomed as a reserve currency due to the loss of America as a hedgemonic entity)...
This is all just fiddle faddle to pussyfoot the dollar on what would 'hoped' to be a palatable glidepath down...
That won't happen until the 20 to 40 year charts prove that to be the case...
Short term 'onlookers' will see a break of 70 and think that there's only 'air under there'...
It's not going to work that way...
It'll rise from the dead AFTER it has it's Wil E Coyote moment... For no other reason than the 'thinking' will be that it's going to zero at that moment, some will pile on to that, only to get KILLED by the money printers...
Fade that prediction at your own risk...
Doesn't friggin matter to me... I've already place my bets...
AmenRa said...
The previous high (1344.07) has been breached. So now what?
UP-UP-UP anD aWaY?
me, prolly gonna sell the last 1/4 of SSO calls I'm sitting on, wait for the next set-up... either up or down.
"Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday a strong dollar "will always be" in U.S. interests and that the Obama administration would not undercut the greenback to spur growth."
..And not a soul said anything when he said this. Not a soul called him a liar.
..
"The bottom line is that this market is once again knocking on the door of the previous highs. That is not a sign of a market that is "peaking" at all. Markets that have peaked have no business going back to its previous highs. It seems like a higher probability event that we will take out 1344 sometime this week. The wave count, though, suggests that if we do break to new highs this week, it will likely be a "bull trap" as there is a zone of technical resistance between 1367 and 1380."
http://www.newsday.com/classifieds/real-estate/sagaponack-homeowner-to-demolish-44m-home-1.2838249
Sagaponack homeowner to demolish $44M home
"Sometimes 6,165 square feet and ocean views just aren't enough.
The owner of an oceanfront mansion in Sagaponack that once rented for $900,000 a summer plans to tear down the property and build an 11,268-square-foot abode in its stead.
The village last month approved the demolition of the two-story home and earlier this month approved the construction of a new home on the 6.5 acre lot that would allow views of the water from the first floor that a sand dune obstructs."
"Citing a Sotheby's International Realty agent who had handled rentals of the property, Newsday last year reported that David A. Tepper, the New Jersey billionaire hedge fund manager behind Appaloosa Management, had purchased the property. A call to Tepper was not returned Monday"
...Tepper reigns!
BinT...
See, the Dollars are 'filtering' out to the real economy!
Tepper makes billions front running the USG...
And, then he puts money back into the local Sagaponack community.
hahhaahha
The bottom line is that this market is once again knocking on the door of the previous highs. That is not a sign of a market that is "peaking" at all
IMNSPO (In my not so popular opinion)...
This is no different from last July...
The "month before" Jackson hole... S&P miraculously found a bottom at 1010 because, wink wink, nod, nod, the PD's were tipped off that QE2 was coming... FRONTRUN IT!...
Maybe it's a little different this time... But the effect is the same...
IOW... The "wink wink nod nod"now, is that no matter what, if equities do a sell off in the QE2 termination period, something will come to the rescue at some point... Call it QE vapor, or whatever...
Probably some technician figured out that the SPX would need to get to somewhere in the 1400 - 1450 range or something, so that the DEPTH of the OMG the market is selling off moment would be something that could be fairly effortlessly supported without making peeps run for the hills...
I'd be starting to look for giant H&S patterns right now if I cared...
Last week (or the week before) I commented about this extensively (when I was talking about QE vapor)...
I drink alone...
Fed Confidence in Transitory Inflation Pickup Hinges on Subdued Wage Gains
"The Mossville, Illinois, homebuilder also hasn’t given his crew of two a raise in two years and says they shouldn’t expect one soon. Their predicament illustrates the downside of what Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen calls “transitory” inflation: Household purchasing power is shrinking because wages and salaries aren’t keeping pace with food and energy prices.
Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are also finding no evidence that higher prices are boosting expectations for wage increases, suggesting underlying inflation and consumer spending will remain low. That’s why officials led by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will be in no hurry to withdraw record stimulus after completing a $600 billion bond-purchase program in June, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JP Morgan Securities LLC."
..I think there is a problem with this line of thinking. If you are systematically reducing the value of the dollar, you don't need wage inflation to create the wage-price spiral. You have the diminishing dollar-increasing price spiral. Lots of ways to skin a cat...
Cv,
I watch CNBC and Bloom every single day. I'm not sure where you get the idea that your thoughts are not popular opinions, on the contrary, they are general consensus amongst pundits that appear on those two channels.
AT, 12:16
"Markets that have peaked have no business going back to its previous highs"
so you reject the concept of a double top? I'm not sure I can buy into everything stated there, I've not seen too many examples of a primary change in trend not putting in a topping formation and instead going straight down, it could have been stated this was a problem in early march since we turned straight down from the 2/18 high to 1306 in the cash. Our last primary top had peaks that were nearly identical in summer 2007 and then in October we slightly exceeded those highs.
Logically I would think you'd have to see a topping process at this stage, the rally is over two years old with only one meaninful pullback which was last spring/summer, it would seem to me distribution is going to be a process, rather than "an event".
Are you just focused on the very near term with those comments?
Yeah, that was only a "short term" call on the 1344 level..based on the way it was "teasing" the recent peaks...it just seemed like a forgone conclusion we would trade at least marginally higher.
Wud agree that the concensus opinion is that the market will "never fall to far" because the Bernank will always "step in"....
AT,
without going into great detail if you still count this as an X wave what/how would you label a peak in the 1370 region and is the likelihood of a retest of the 1250 zone out of the question now? I'm assuming given the strength of the move from March lows that you have dropped the idea that we'll see 1220's on this wave.
The candles on SLV from yesterday and today are shaping up to be very interesting in revealing near term direction for a few more days to maybe a week or two. I spent about an hour reviewing your count yesterday on the Silver futures. Far be it from me to want to jump to label anything an impulse, but that really looked to be a decent squiggle count you showed.
Also, I'm curious, last night I was on my Mac, I was sending out party invitations, talking about wealth redistribution with my wife, and I just felt that people were people and I knew I graduated from college.
Today at the office I'm on the PC, and I "feel" different. Normal?
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=6430211
Q: Archie, let's finish with you. You had this terrific college and pro career. And then you have three star sons, two of whom grow up to be Super Bowl MVPs. Does it ever just stop you in your tracks?
Archie: You know, I said to [Olivia] one night -- I was in bed, reading something about the boys in a magazine -- and I said, "Honey, we've been married 35 years now. Did you ever, in your wildest dreams, think you and I would have children that would do these amazing things?"
And she said, "Archie, very seldom are you in my wildest dreams."
...That is what you get from a talking rib...
ben22: I don't think the x-wave concluded yet...a move to 1370 would be by b-wave within the x-wave.
Surplus Lures Speculators… But Beware the Fallout
At the end of last year, silver’s surplus – defined as the difference between supply and fabrication demand – checked in at 173.4 million ounces. Looking ahead, Barclays Capital estimates 2011 to be “another year of record supply,” thanks to increased mining activity.
Simple economics lend credence to the prediction, too. As market prices increase for any commodity, so does the incentive for producers to generate more. And with primary silver mining cash costs checking-in under $6 an ounce, I’d say there’s ample incentive to ramp up mining efforts.
As Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, said, “There’s no convincing economic reason for why this [silver rally] is happening. It’s still a market with a very large surplus.”
And that’s precisely why investors should proceed with caution.
A Correction Could Be Swift and Severe
According to The Silver Institute, investors plowed $5.6 billion into silver in 2010, almost doubling 2009’s total. But there’s no reason why this money that poured in can’t stampede out just as quickly.
Case in point: When the financial crisis hit in 2008, silver tanked almost 50% in just four months time. (By comparison, gold prices fell about half as much).
The fact that the bulk of silver investments are currently being made in highly liquid, exchange-traded products, like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), increases the odds of a swift and severe correction. (Last year, investors bought 494.98 million ounces of silver via exchange-traded products versus 101.3 million ounces of coin and physical silver.)
And if ever there was an indication of at least a short-term peak in prices, it’s “cash-strapped people lining up to sell their silverware,” as Barron’s reports:...
http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2011/04/14/truth-about-silvers-rally/
AAIP
In re: Macs vs. PC
The first Mac i ever bot was the I-Mac back in 99-2000....it sucked ass. I'm sure it was a bad model and maybe a 'one off' bad design or something; but, i did drink the apple kool-aid once and didn't like the way it tasted.
Maybe I'll try again...whenever I want to feel "cool" again.
Otherwise, I can buy a really cheap desktop (@Sam's Club) that tends to do what I need it to do...and the Windows 7 interface is really, really nice.
AT,
cool, thanks, that's what I figured, I guess the only issue I have then is that it starts to look a little similar to the last X wave, which I believe marked the the April 2010 top, which nominally exceeded January 2010, as a b wave within that X. A deeper downdraft would probably eliminate some of that similarity but just doesn't look like the market is about to do that here.
thanks again man
PS: Neely has gone full bull, I don't agree with his counts, but certainly admire his ability to flip on a dime.
Wud agree that the concensus opinion is that the market will "never fall to far" because the Bernank will always "step in"...
Hang on for a minute...
To be clear... CV DOES NOT... I repeat... DOES NOT subscribe to the notion that markets will "not fall too far because the Bernank will always step in"...
Nosiree! It's NOT what 'm saying (or have been saying)...
Instead... I'm saying that most of the market makers seem to have latched onto that idea for now (and have since QE2 started)...
So... if that's the "going" consensus opinion as you described (1:33), then that oughta be the bias of the general way the market trades until proven otherwise...
Why would I want to be idiot enough to fade that bias?
The day will come when that is going to be tested, but that day isn't here yet...
It wasn't even apparent in the period between the February highs & the March lows... Why? Easy... Because QE2 isn't technically over yet... So for all anybody knows, nobody has decided anything yet...
Let me be hypothetical and ask a stupid question...
What if the Feb top to the March lows = the "idea" that QE2 was going to end... Then, the "idea" was that QE3 would come along was the reason the market is now back to challenging the HOY's, the dollar is about to fall off a cliff, the Euro is looking like it wants to print 1.50, gold got to $1520, silver got to $50... yada yada...
Just ENTERTAIN ME on that notion for a second...
Well, laughingly... the famous consensus opinion is going to be a bunch of market players who want to decide that the Fed is... IN FACT... all powerful...
It's not ME that's saying that, it's a bunch of MOMOS who have their very livelihood predicated on the notion that if the Fed just pulls the rug out, then their playmoney candyland vanishes...
We've long crossed the Rubicon that until the RESET button is pushed, and we get to the Ron Paul/Robert prechter land of...
- End the Fed
- Dow 400
- Bondholder haircuts
then the only game in town is to keep playing in the casino...
The money has already been lost, but the patrons are still milling around playing with MONOPOLY money because the casino operator feels bad he's taken all their money and will offer them free drinks on the house if they continue to mill about playing with the monopoly money...
Someday, the casino operator will probably decide it'll be time to stop giving out free drinks, OR, the people will realise they have better things to do than to get a cheap thrill & buzz tossing down drinks and playing with Monopoly money...
“I still have a target for silver to reach the $187 level,” Weber said. “I’ve had this for nearly a decade now. There’ll be corrections at some point – we’re actually overdue for one. But I think silver will be the best investment of this era.”
On the surface, that appears to be a bold statement. But the reality is that silver is already outpacing gold. Since it’s January 2000 average, silver has shot up 690%, while gold is up 421%. Looking at the shorter term, since July 2010, silver is on a major bull run, doubling in price. Gold, on the other hand, is up just 24%.
So what’s happening here? Why is silver outperforming gold?
Well, fundamentally, the silver market is different from that of gold. Silver is more than just a precious metal for jewelry, fine dining utensils, and other such consumables, or even as a safe haven investment. Silver is practical. And new applications for solar batteries, water purification, cellphones, circuit boards, plasma TVs and radio frequency identification devices (RFIDs) are helping to ignite silver’s demand.
In fact, 40% of silver demand is now driven by industrial uses, compared to just 11% for gold.
“Silver is still an excellent conductor of electricity,” stated Weber. “So however that electricity is generated, silver will always be sought after by industry.”
And this is what will separate silver from gold in the future.
Global Industrial Demand for Silver Rises Exponentially
By 2015, it’s estimated that global industrial demand for silver will increase 36%, from 487 million ounces in 2010 to 666 million ounces. Most of that increase will be for electrical contacts and photovoltaic (PV) solar cells. This is very big, even though PV cells use only 0.15 to 0.25 grams of silver each. In 2004, the solar industry consumed just three million ounces of silver. That increased to 50 million by 2010. And solar’s demand for silver will top 100 million ounces by 2015.
Globally, solar energy demand is expected to double in just the next three years. India alone is dropping $19 billion to add 20 gigawatts of new solar power by 2020. This year, India’s silver exports are expected to increase 25%, not only for solar, but also a wide range of uses.
But PV cells are exotic. The real sneaky consumer of silver is cell phones. Each one contains a mere 250 milligrams of silver. Now extrapolate that out among the 1.6 billion cellphones sold last year.
And the real key here is, because silver is such a great conductor of electricity, there are no low-cost alternatives. End users can’t simply switch to something else when supply gets tight and prices get high.
The Last Piece of the Puzzle
All this new industrial demand is helping put some wind in silver’s sails. But there’s another piece of the puzzle: exchange-traded funds (ETFs)...
http://www.investmentu.com/2011/April/why-silver-will-outperform-gold.html
ibid.
But PV cells are exotic. The real sneaky consumer of silver is cell phones
Or...
You could just go the "Nobel PEACE Prize winner in Chief" route, send 120 cruise missles into downtown Tripoli and/or puppet dictator du jour's country that's sitting on light sweet, and BLOW UP 3 tons of it at a time...
That's like 3 - 5,000 of granny's tea sets per pop...
...and the next war AFTER that will be fought on horses...
Neely can definitely CHANGE HIS MIND very quickly....
It's a good trait actually.
Well, those are interesting comments on silver to be sure, I also read a paper that made nearly identical fundamental arguments, problem is the paper was written in the early 80's without the 2000's technology type examples. This isn't to say that person is wrong, I just find it intersting that now so many articles just like that are making the rounds. Wouldn't that have actually been a valuable statement in say....1998 or 9, when cell phones, as an example, started to go mainstream? What makes it compelling now?
but who wants to debate all that right.....how about just pointing out some different things, like the fact that if you buy into those thoughts on silver, you also must assume that
1. Objective, conscious, rational decisions to maximize utility determine financial values.
2. Investors in financial markets typically use information to reason.
3. Investor decisions are based on knowledge and certainty.
4. Exogenous variables determine most financial decisions about value.
5. changing events presage changes in the values of associated financial instruments.
6. Economic principles govern finance.
All of which are implied in the underlying argument of the above, of course, the only problem is that if you subscribe to those 6 ideas then you also have to state that Financial price changes are essentially random, and therefore not predictable, and therefore any price target applied by such reasoning is just fantasy, but I realize this goes against convential wisdom.
I think it makes more sense to just state that the silver chart, despite today's action, still looks bullish, but technicians are just self fulfilling fantasy seekers themselves.
:-)
Andy -- is there a Neely update or are you commenting on a previous mind change? My email updates slowly....
Just commenting on ben's reference to the fact that Neely is full tilt bullish now...after being full tilt bearish just last month.
Jennifer,
nothing since yesterday, but I'm sure you saw his projections, he's got a line drawn just below 1,500 now, or to 1450 anyway.....woo hoo bulls!
it's basically a mapping of the inverse H&S pattern that everyone can see, most people seem to think that pattern is a foregone conclusion but the neckline hasn't been broken enough for it to be confirmed, didn't we all learn the lesson about trading H&S's prior to confirmation in the summer of 2009?
Yeah, I saw ...just checking. I agree with you -- too obvious. I would think at a minimum there would be a little shakeout at the neckline before we go higher.
of all classical patterns, a failed head and shoulders is one of the most profitable in terms of beating buy and hold and it's ability to reach a 10% gain or more after confirmation, so maybe watch for that as well
"it's basically a mapping of the inverse H&S pattern that everyone can see, most people seem to think that pattern is a foregone conclusion but the neckline hasn't been broken enough for it to be confirmed"
My guess is... Just a guess...
But the dollar doing an exploration into those 72 or 70 levels would be all "the consensus" needs as a cover to take SPX to any 1450 level that Neely might be talking about (Disclosure: I don't have his projections in front of me so I'm just paper napkining my logic)
Next big OMG!WTFF??? moment might come next Monday or Tuesday when Europe is closed for a holiday on Monday but New York is open...
There will be the "neckline break" (probably in GAP fashion if my instincts are right)...
of course, THE WIZARD will be doing his best Jim Mora, or Dennis Green tomorrow... Giving the perfect opportunity to WRONGFOOT the sheeps before the weekend...
"Daisy... Daisy"
...and hell...
I haven't been looking at individual stock charts for awhile, but it sure sinks in off the top of my head that BANK STOCKS &/or REITS would be prime candidates to make a run on any upward break...
As I said, I haven't looked at any of the charts, but one would have to consider that the CRAP of THE CRAP would outperform in a move like that...
CV,
Why put so much weight into what the dollar does to make near term market proejctions?
So...
Time to whip out the ole "Crap Stock Rolodex" :-)
I need a close and hold of 1350+ for me to become very bullish. 1332 and 1314 still may be tested. Don't think we'll see 1296 again this or next month. If we do, I'll be a big buyer at 1242... of course these are all "18's".
@ben (3:54)
Appropriate question...
Just a hunch... Really (I'm being totally sincere when I say this)...
It's not what CV thinks... It's what I believe to have been the behavioral pattern, really, since 2009...(IOW - what I think 'others' are thinking)...
It boils down to nothing more than the aggregate of folks who are either:
1. Completely clueless
2. Know a few things, but don't want to rock the boat as long as they're not getting screwed
3. Really know it's fucked, but can't do much about it...
When you add up all those profiles... The BIAS is to "pretend that the emperor HAS clothes"...
It doesn't matter that he doesn't... And it doesn't even matter AFTER the first person stands up and says out loud that he doesn't...
It's the point of ACTING ON IT that matters...
Basically - we're not there yet...
That's just my interpretation of it...
Damn. Closed above the weekly 3LB reversal price. At least there are three more days before it's official.
@ben
and also... on this...
"Why put so much weight into what the dollar does to make near term market proejctions"
I'd tend to split that into two categories:
CATEGORY 1 would be: "Why put so much into the dollar...STOP"
Someday, somewhere, somehow, the dollar is going to lose reserve status... I'm willing to go out on a limb right now and say that THAT TIME is happening right before our eyes...
That's not to say that it's going to CRASH & GO TO ZERO... But it's in the process of 'stepping down'... That's why I've been on the 72, 70, etc. expression lately...
Take all the important moments in the history of the dollar (since 1913), and it probably would give a better notion of what the destiny of the dollar is...
Plot it against anything you want..
- 1929 crash
- FDR
- 1963
- 1971
- Plaza accord
- NASDAQ crash (2000)
- 2008
All the dollar is looking for is what I'd call a "glidepath to obscurity"... It had a good run, and not much serious competition...
That period has ended...
Oh wait... I forgot "Category 2"...
CAT 2 is just a near term expression of that...
It doesn't have much MACRO meaning at all in the grand scheme of things...
IOW... 1450 S&P isn't important... Under 70 dollar is...
The gravity of one will (I'm guessing) have influence on the other IN REAL TIME for awhile...
Long term? They're probably mutually exclusive...
CV,
the point was that the dollar isn't perfectly correlated with any risk assets at any degree of trend, so I'm not sure I get the:
If the dollar is X then stocks are X type of forecasting on such a short term basis.
or put another way, why would the dollar being below a certain level be more of a confirmation of a head and shoulders playing out than the head and shoulders itself given the lack of clear correlation on such a short degree of trend? I'm missing how that's more valuable than the pattern itself or how one uses the dollar to confirm or negate the other.
Also, of course the dollar will lose reserve status someday, maybe right now, but that still doesn't tell you what it means for stocks or commodities, unless of course you subscribe to efficient markets as I put out above, then I suppose you are correct.
Last, I find it truly interesting that in all your events you say I can chart you leave out the most important "event" which was the 30year period of time where credit expansion here did something it's never done at any time before in terms of size and scope. Nothing more to read into here, I simply take interest in the fact that you did not list that as something to chart or as something that was significant for the currency, instead it all revolves around exogenous events (see pt 4 in my 3 pm post)
Also, I have to say, having a little trouble following your 4:02,....even if it's what you think others think....isn't it still about what you think?
You play any golf yet this year? I shot a 42 at some crappy course at PSU two weekends ago.
Also, of course the dollar will lose reserve status someday, maybe right now, but that still doesn't tell you what it means for stocks or commodities, unless of course you subscribe to efficient markets as I put out above
You're absolutely right... It still doesn't tell you what it means for stocks or commodities...
But I'm willing to guess... In the short term... that...
- If the dollar continues to languish here under 74
- S&P breaks out to new highs for the year
THEN...
A bunch of people (like the guy in your office that wants to buy Brazilian ETF's because of the Olympics... Tan Joe... Cramer... Erin B cups... Lazlo Indian Rice dish... Bob Piss on Me... AJ (S&P 1800)C... and whoever else the media wants to toss in front of your face), will all chime in with that conclusion)... And 'those guys' are THE MARKET, right?... It's NOT ME with my farmland & nickles...
Not that ANY of them will be right, but it has the potential to effectively "BUY A RIDE" for a month or so to 1450 before anyone even knows what hit 'em...
Add to that log pile that 'Neely flipped bull', and even Jeremy Grantham has gone full Malthus...
And you have a fairly simple cocktail for a little breakout here...
---
To sum it all up... "even if it's what you think others think....isn't it still about what you think?"
My answer is... "NO"... It's not what I think...
Well, it IS, and it ISN'T...
The IS part... Is why I've been out of the equity markets since last August... Because I got tired of playing the waiting game for what SHOULD (and probably will eventually happen)...
The ISN'T part is any simple market commentary that I make nowadays... Which is, basically... "The fools are still ruling"...
I, like yourself, don't believe in the long term idea that the so called "market manipulators" will achieve the PERPETUAL MOTION elisir...
But since 2009, I think enough have been swayed to the notion that "It's THIS, or DOOM" (which is probably true - depending on how DOOM effects you personally)...
So the game has been extended for awhile... It's like one of those European soccer matches in 'stoppage time'... U never know what can happen in 4 extra minutes, right? right?
---
I figured out, last August, that the BEST way for me to 'think what I think' (and actually not lose money in the process) was to GET PHYSICAL (not fiat)... Thus far, it's basically worked...
I was looking for converts back then... At this phase of the curve, I'm 'cautioning' freshly minted converts (tho the ride might not be over just yet)...
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No golf yet... I'm kind of itchin' to get out and hit some wedges or something... I have enough room on the property to actually put up a hitting area, and hit maybe 120 yard wedges to a tomato can and a flag...
Might just do it...
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