SKEW (daily info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 130.45
rev= 118.54; mid= 124.50
Still trying to find a way to better understand Skew. I'm waiting for my data provider to get the historical for Skew so I can do a better analysis. The bottom chart is the spread between Skew and Vix. The rising wedge has been broken to the upside. Above 100 indicates more OTM action than ITM or ATM action in SPX options. Skew is for tail risk. The apex of the wedge is around 4/25/11-4/26/11.
New High New Lows (daily info info)Somehow the NYSE and NASDAQ managed to close higher yet there were more new lows for each index. Divergence, conundrum, quirk, magic trick or mystery meat are the terms that come to mind when seeing this. Yes I know it's a little colorful.
ANF (weekly info)new high 69.82
trend=up
high= 69.82
rev= 59.02; mid= 64.42
Last week made a new high on less than 50% of the volume of the previous week. It also looks like it is trying to form an evening star pattern. A lower weekly close would form the pattern but a close at or below 63.58 (midpoint of long candle) would be an even better formation. But this week may be just some profit taking before starting the next move higher.
Hello Everyone.
Last night, AmenRa and I decided to make a few changes to this site because, quite frankly, this Blog has changed in the last few weeks.
CV, who founded Traders Anonymous, will no longer be an administrator. AmenRa (the lead contributer) and I have taken over all administrative duties and responsibilities. We've invited CV to be an author if he would like to be involved in some authorship role.
The intent is for this Blog to get back to its "roots," which is trading and technical analysis. The Comments section will remain open and uncensored, though we will reserve the right to moderate where necessary.
As a "personal aside," I know that several of our good friends have left this site in the last few weeks for various reasons. The primary 'strength' of this blog, and almost any blog for the matter, is the contribution of the commenters/readers/friends. We value those friends and their ideas.
My hope is that folks decide to add their voices back to the discussion again, if only on occasion. This particular blog will never "go away" or be shut down. If there's no demand for the analysis and/or people don't feel like commenting in the future, then we'll probably just stop posting threads "some day." Either way, this blog will remain public and open to all.
Best Wishes to Everyone,
Andy T.
Do you know what today is?
Not a recommendation per se ;-)
75 comments:
Don't look now but gold over $1500 and silver tacking on about a dollar a day (nearing $45 as we speak)...
In CV's 'newly defined' role as author/contributor to this blog I'm going to try my best to honor the wishes of Andy T & Amen Ra during the DAILY (read: "Market Open" hours), and keep the topic on either trading or newsfeeds...
I might let loose a little more during the "After Hours" threads (and/or on the weekends)...
TRADING WISE
Many of you who read this blog know that CV has been "yakking up" silver basically since Jackson Hole last August...
While some may want to paint me as a blind silver nut... The reality is far from that... I'd put a "price target" of $50 on that quite a long time ago (and have stuck by that pledge)...
It kind of "freaked me out" for a moment this morning when I clicked onto the futures and saw a $44.44 price on silver...
Why?
I'll cut here and post up a different comment on the "number '4' in Chinese...
In Chinese culture, certain numbers are believed by some to be auspicious (吉利) or inauspicious (不利) based on the Chinese word that the number name sounds similar to. However some Chinese people regard these beliefs to be superstitions. Since the pronunciation and the vocabulary may be different in different Chinese dialects, the rules are generally not applicable for all cases.
Because of the supposed auspiciousness of certain numbers, some people will often choose, attempt to obtain, or pay large sums for numbers that are considered to be lucky for their phone numbers, street addresses, residence floor (in a multi-story building), driver's license number, vehicle license plate number, bank account number, etc.
Lucky numbers are based on Chinese words that sound similar to other Chinese words. The numbers 6, 8, and 9 are believed to have auspicious meanings because their names sound similar to words that have positive meanings
---
Four
Main article: Tetraphobia
Number 4 (四; accounting 肆; pinyin sì) is considered an unlucky number in Chinese, Korean, and Japanese cultures because it is nearly homophonous to the word "death" (死 pinyin sǐ). Due to that, many numbered product lines skip the "4": e.g. Nokia cell phones (there is no series beginning with a 4),[5] Palm[citation needed] PDAs, Canon PowerShot G's series (after G3 goes G5), etc. In East Asia, some buildings do not have a 4th floor. (Compare with the Western practice of some buildings not having a 13th floor because 13 is considered unlucky.) In Hong Kong, some high-rise residential buildings literally miss all floor numbers with "4", e.g. 4, 14, 24, 34 and all 40–49 floors, in addition to not having a 13th floor. As a result, a building whose highest floor is number 50 may actually have only 35 physical floors.
Number 14 is considered to be one of the unluckiest numbers. Although 14 is usually said in Mandarin as 十四 "shí sì," which sounds like 十死 "ten die", it can also be said as 一四 "yī sì" or 么四 "yāo sì", literally "one four". Thus, 14 can also be said as "yāo sì," literally "one four," but it also sounds like "want to die" (要死 pinyin yào sǐ). In Cantonese, 14 sounds like "sap6 sei3", which sounds like "sat6 sei2" meaning "certainly die" (實死). Not all Chinese people consider it to be an unlucky number as the pronunciation differs among the various dialects. In Chiu Chow, 4 is pronounced as "see" or "yes". It is seen to be a lucky number because Chinese people like things in pairs (four would equal two pairs). However, the superstitions regarding numbers from Cantonese people have been adopted by the other Chinese people.
OTOH - "8" is considered lucky in Chinese
EightThe word for "eight" (八 Pinyin: bā) sounds similar to the word which means "prosper" or "wealth" (發 – short for "發財", Pinyin: fā). In regional dialects the words for "eight" and "fortune" are also similar, e.g. Cantonese "baat3" and "faat3".
There is also a visual resemblance between two digits, "88", and 囍, the "shuāng xĭ" ('double joy'), a popular decorative design composed of two stylized characters 喜 ("xĭ" meaning 'joy' or 'happiness').
The number 8 is viewed as such an auspicious number that even being assigned a number with several eights is considered very lucky.
A telephone number with all digits being eights was sold for USD$270,723 in Chengdu, China.
The opening ceremony of the Summer Olympics in Beijing began on 8/8/08 at 8 seconds and 8 minutes past 8 pm (local time).[1]
A man in Hangzhou offered to sell his license plate reading A88888 for RMB 1.12 million (roughly USD164,000).[1]
The Petronas Twin Towers in Malaysia each have 88 Floors.
The Air Canada route from Shanghai to Toronto is Flight AC88.
The KLM route from Hong Kong to Amsterdam is Flight KL888
The United Airlines route from San Francisco to Beijing is Flight UA888.
In Singapore, a breeder of rare Dragon fish (Asian Arowana) (which are "lucky fish" and being a rare species, are required to be microchipped), makes sure to use numbers with plenty of eights in their microchip tag numbers, and appears to reserve particular numbers especially rich in eights and sixes (e.g. 702088880006688) for particularly valuable specimens.[2][3]
As part of grand opening promotions, a Commerce Bank branch in New York's Chinatown raffled off safety deposit box No. 888.
An "auspicious" numbering system was adopted by the developers of 39 Conduit Road Hong Kong, where the top floor was "88" – Chinese for double fortune. It is already common in Hong Kong for ~4th floors not to exist; there is no requirement by the Buildings Department for numbering other than that it being "made in a logical order."[4] A total of 43 intermediate floor numbers are omitted from 39 Conduit Road: those missing include 14, 24, 34, 64, all floors between 40 and 49; the floor number which follows 68 is 88.[4]
All of that is just "anecdotal" (about as anecdotal as sunspots, or [insert superstitious anecdote of your choice here])...
I've come to find that despite being a fairly disciplined bunch, TRADERS are also superstitious... Also, I've found that TAPE TALK 24/7 can be rather drab & meaningless if there isn't something ANECDOTAL behind it...
The "opposite" is true as well... Amen Ra & Andy provide one of those factors, CV, in the past, has provided the "other"...
---
Anyway - That is my best attempt at a description for the tone of any comments I might make...
Andy T & Amen Ra are FULL ADMINISTRATORS of this blog now, and as such, CV will play by THEIR rules...
For TRADERS out there, if anybody is interested... My "one trade" is that I've been riding the silver horse since last summer (thinking we'd probably see $50)... I still think that's likely...
We're running into some of my favorite calendar 'thingys' as well... For those of you who have been around awhile, CV has spoken many times about weird things happening in Forex & commodities markets around times where either European OR US markets were closed for a holiday weekend...
Last year, I'd predicted 3 months prior to May that the Euro would cross 1.29 on May 4th (which it did on exactly that date)... The significance there is that May 1st (CV's birthday) is the Labor Day holiday in most of Europe (which makes their markets closed until Tuesday (while the US is open)...
It 'seems' to me that gold, silver, the dollar, and the euro are in a rush to PRINT their technical peaks as well (and right now, what you're seeing is a little ARBITRAGE to get it to all come to some kind of harmonic convergence on or near the first week in May again)...
I still haven't settled on EXACT numbers... But I'd basically say:
- "Why the heck not [$50 silver]"?
- Euro (somewhere between 1.46 and 1.50
- Bucky, probably a test of 72
- Gold seems like it was "first one to the party" (having already hit $1500)... Remember what happened when it hit $1000... I've said it before that PM's seem to have a love affair with round psychological numbers (but I feel like I'm wasting my breath sometimes providing these observations for traders)...
So for now I'm going to hang with my $50 silver call... May 2 would be the first Tuesday AFTER the Labor Day holiday in Europe...
So basically, if it doesn't make it by then, the ride may be over... & it may just be that since there are 8 trading days until then, we start seeing a pretty wild ride...
My 2 cents
@Andy T/Amen
One thing you may want to do (since you have the ADMIN capabilities)... Is get in there and "change" the setting on POSTED BY...
It's still coming up as "POSTED BY CV AMEN RA"... (which gives the impression that I posted the thread)...
It'll also be handier to change that which will make "categorization" easier in the future for your LABELS menu...
Know what I'm saying?
Silver unbelievable. Very powerful.
@spoonman
Gotta say something... I'm glad I was (am) in silver with the PHYSICAL...
If it were a paper trade, I'm pretty sure I would have "flinched" by now, & exited the position...
I should have mentioned CHF in that sequence...
Looks like it may want to bust upwards...
I flinched in paper silver a long time ago, but still own physical. Contemplating selling some of that too, but haven't yet. I wake up every morning and silver is up another dollar though. Unless the end is upon us, this sort of move has to be retraced at some point...
Nice update to the theme, BTW Andy and Ra. Looks good. We took a small shot at FXI on the short side yesterday. That looks like it was a bad idea...We have been faithfully selling covered calls on TLT and been happy with how that has gone.
>> Investors and economists including David Kelly at JPMorgan Funds see that as a signal the Fed will keep its balance sheet at current levels by replacing about $17 billion a month in maturing mortgage debt with Treasuries.
Wasn't that already expected? And, further, as ZeroHedge posters have pointed out, that's tens of billions less per month than they've been pumping into the market for the past 6 months. So....
Without *more* shenanigans than that, I don't see how that even qualifies as "vapors".
@spoonman
Unless the end is upon us, this sort of move has to be retraced at some point...
Agreed...
The issue, IMHO, is with regards to the 'paper' & physical markets...
At the moment, it seems to be getting to the point that people are afraid to "short" silver any more in the paper markets (& at the same time, maybe the prices are too hefty to go making any new physical purchases)...
I get the sense that a correction, when it does happen, will happen very quickly (and really not happen in a way that is going to get a lot of people to go rushing to coin dealers to cash in their silver)...
That said, if a 'technical low' is then fairly quickly established, I think if we're at the point where a "QE Vapor" to QE3 scenario looks likely, then you're actually going to see the TBTF's going clandestinely long the physical (IOW, you'll start seeing 'backwardation' scenarios)...
There's pretty good chart support for silver at $26 (then at $20)...
So if you wanted to simply apply FIBOS...
- at $52, a 50% correction would hit the $26 level
- at $52, a 61.8% correction [to "zero"] would come in around $20
---
From my POV (which is unpopular), I only see those numbers getting hit if a complete REVERSAL in policy is made:
- no more QE's
- no debt ceiling raises
- austerity for all bitchez
Since I DON'T see any of those as likely... I'll continue to do as I've done for many months now...
WAIT & HOPE for the 'correction' to come...
Then... accumulate...
Test. I posted something, and then it vanished.
Prashant
@Prashant
Send all complaints to THE MANAGEMENT...
CV is no longer THE MANAGEMENT :-)
I've got posts vanishing too...
Maybe they'll show up later... (It was a reply to WUNSA)...
Blogger seems to be buggy today...
Spoonman -- your daily silver commentary cracks me up. Thanks for the chuckle.
AR -- just read this last night re: skew. Found it very helpful, maybe too simplistic for you though. macrostory.com/?p=2940
Sorry no link, still can't find the darn paste button. IE upgraded and left me behind.
...Trading the "18's"...
SSO June $54 and $56 calls bot 4/18 on the 1296 bounce... bot more yesterday on the 1305 (50% 1296-1314) bounce... sell 1/2 today, hold rest to see if 1332 is broken or 1314 support holds.
Jennifer
I know it's calculated using the volume of OTM options. If institutions are hedging they'll load up on them.
CV
You have no idea how long it took me to find out where to change that. It's not as obvious as one would think.
After the opening salvo NTSE TICK still didn't break +1000. Also couldn't get five bullish 1-min candles either.
@Amen (9:30)
Tell me about it...
More than a year went by and I decided to just forget the whole idea of trying to find it...
But if you have, in fact, done so... I might suggest that when you post the threads, that you use the TAGS function (something that I never did because I was all by my lonesome at the beginning)...
You'll be able to categorize the menu better going forward... I'm afraid I kind of left you a messy cupboard...
Remember way back when (2 days ago) the $150k/year S&P 500 Analyst put the US on Negative Credit watch and the futures sold off?
In these comments we suggested fading that action. Basically (Negative)*(Negative)=(Positive)
Pretty bullish "potential" set up on the S&P Futures now. A break above 1340 (june futures)/about 1345 on the SP500 cash would look like a "cup and handle" break out.
S&P officially in "no man's land" at these levels (1330)
Not as messy as the silver march to 45 and beyond.
Andy T
If the SPX breaks above its Feb highs then the move to 1400 will be very fast I'm afraid. Another stretch of not closing below its EMA(10) for days.
AT,
It would appear Neely has gone wild bull boy today....interesting I suppose.
He flipped to your X wave, now thinks it could be over.
Your thoughts?
TLT still firm, like the bottom of a cheerleader. Just under resistance...
AT and AmenRa,
Nice redesign on the blog!
RG
Real gaps plus days before reversal.
1/31/11-2/1/11 took 14 days before reversing.
3/29/11-3/30/11 took 7 days before reversing.
4/19/11-4/20/11 XXX days before reversing.
I'll take 3 days Alex for the win. Survey said...
>> TLT still firm, like the bottom of a cheerleader. Just under resistance...
Ah, thanks for reminding me to drive by my local high school later today.
(jk)
ben22:
I'd be surprised if that x-wave is already over. It would seem too short lived, but, the price action last few weeks is NOT bearish. Thats for shizz.
@wunsa
I keep trying to get a comment posted in reply to your (8:21) and it keeps disappearing...
It could be that some kind of 'setting' got changed when Andy did the re-design...
I'm going to try and break it into pieces (the post) because I suspect it may be too many HTML characters...
@wunsa
Let me try this way... (2 parts)
@wunsa
Everybody (from Jim Rickards to Bob Janjuah) has been chiming in on that one...
My take (when I say "vapors"), in application to your reference on that, is basically as follows:
---
I think you're basically right, in representing that it is quite a "haircut" when compared to the $100 billion a month liquidity injection since QE2 officially started...
However, let's use those numbers you put there...
$100 billion vs. $17 billion (let's say "6-1")...
What I'm saying is that I doubt you'll see a commensurate drop in equities that would reflect a 1/6 volume liquidity withdrawl... I say that for a couple of reasons...
(part 2)
1. Who is to say that the FULL POTENTIAL of QE2 has yet been achieved (Is the "top" in, or isn't it)... It makes no difference if that "full potential" I speak of is actually something fundamental... PRICE DISCOVERY has nothing to do with fundamentals (and idea that seems to have been LOST on people who have been so anxious to call a top on silver these past months)...
2. I'd guess the market will at least try to "make do" with the $17 billion for a little while (may only last a couple of weeks)...
3. At the first "hint" that the market is getting BORED with having no play money, QE3 rhetoric will start to "ratchet up"... (so "pricing" will not reflect the ACTUAL "QE Vapor", but the KNOWING that QE3 will, in fact arrive)... At that point, momos will start having serious 'performance anxiety'... The S&P will have started the year at 1250ish, and if half the year goes by and it's still languishing there (or below), they'll be anxious with ANY excuse to go higher... Thus, the "substitute" QE3 hope for QE Vapor mentality...
4. By that time, commodity prices would have hopefully corrected sufficiently to ease the inflationary pressures off folkses pocketbooks...
Remember something... Back BEFORE QE2... The 'Goldman' WHISPER number on QE2 was $2 trillion... The Bernank gave it $600 billion...
Keep that in mind (and dust it off later)...
University of Texas taking down 1Billion of physical Gold....
nice.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/264230-university-of-texas-s-gold-buy-is-a-game-changer
@ben22
If you read what I just described to WUNSA (assuming it doesn't disappear)...
I think my thought process on overall price action might go hand in hand with Neely flipping...
Tho obviously we are coming at it based on completely different reasons...
New high of the year on the DOW if anyone was looking...
Andy,
I agree, not sure that it's all over yet, it would have been short on time and very shallow on price, he's all over the place the last two weeks with his calls, as it should be with an X wave, I suppose.
Yesterday gave some 13/34 crosses as a warning for today, lots of put buying been going on as well.
CV,
look dude, I mean this in the nicest possible way, if I'm going to post over here I'm not talking about all the QE bullshit or even responding to theories revolving around it, it's a total waste of my time and all of us are in 100% speculation mode when we discuss it and what it does to markets. The only real important things I ever thought I said here had to do with concepts on money, in my absence I see that many people here have written off even the potential for the credit bubble to burst further deciding instead that Mr. Wizard has total control. That's fine by me, but I'm not going to bother having those discussions anymore.
I'm just over here reading charts with grandma...or putting it another way, I need to spend my time on things I can control, and QE isn't one of them.
@ben
A couple of weeks ago, I believe, AAPL's "weighting" as a percentage of the SPX was altered...(which was a drag on the index itself because of forced liquidation)...
We're seeing new highs on the DJIA, but no new high on SPX (over mid - Feb, yet)...
So with 3 straight, pretty decent green candles on that, and with them, what? reporting after the bell today?
Well - JTOL
AT,
the triangle on silver played out perfectly, that chart continues to spit out clear short term patterns that are being met, the bull flag we talked about several months ago seemed to be the kick off for all of them.
@ben (12:00)
I don't take it personally... I don't think you're being a dick at all...
But understand that if I do say something about it, I'm not trying to goad you into an argument about it...
CV,
now that's what I'm talking about man, 12:03
the apple chart looked "shaky" for a hot minute, not really bearish though....but it stopped dead on the 50 ma on the six month chart this morning
aour 'old friend' "the Soft Stuff" looks to have 'rolled-over'..
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CT
AAIP
The candle on Apple a few days had the smell of "bear trap" all over it.
in re: Silver.
The short term pattnerns on Silver have been beautiful and predictable...the breakouts have been following through higher when they should.
@Andy T
During the March 2008 "top" on silver... The pattern basically played out over a span of 2-3 WEEKLY candles (before taking the elevator down quickly)...
Then it took a process of 4 months to "re-test" that top and finally retreat...
That "failed" test in July '08 came just on the eve of the '08 CREDIT crunch hitting full stride...
It got dumped (along with everything else), for 3 months before it hit bottom...
It had successfully RETESTED that bottom by January '09 (2 months before the S&P bottomed - & 3 months BEFORE the FASB rules changes were announced)...
barry ritholtz
Loan Sharks Rejoice – Greece 2-Year Notes at 20% ! http://dlvr.it/P8Yxf
looking a little double toppy out there on the daily, 13/34 cross as well....13 acting as resistance
ema's....
@Karen,
20% for two year Greek Notes?
Geezus. They've got islands and beautiful people there....
Think I'd probably lend it at that rate.
For reals.
don't look now AT, 22% is the number
what's a mere 10% difference though at this point.
They've got islands and beautiful people there...
From my personal experience, the 'beautiful people' on the islands aren't in fact, Greeks...
I just talked to a friend who is part Greek...
He wrote this to me:
"You do realize greeks have no intention in paying off debt?"
"the problems with the greeks is that much of the population lives in very rural areas (villages) where there is no government services/assistance/support; i.e. why should they pay taxes if they get nothing in return? plus the rich who could pay taxes are very sophisticated tax cheats..."
" i dont think i would lend at 50%..."
Verbatim.
So, Let me rethink that trade....
" i dont think i would lend at 50%..."
That in a nutshell explains all you need to know about the Greece financial situation.
Surely, this Greek nonsense can't go on like this, day after day.
Reissue the drachma already!
(Is that why the Euro is up, b/c Greece will be tossed out?)
If I was alive and trading this market I would be a giant insect.
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@Franz Kafka...
Been there...done that.
18's 1332 held resistance, twice, for how long?
sold 1/2 sso calls, no direction or when I'll sell the other 1/2.
You ain't got nothin' on me...
LB said...
Surely, this Greek nonsense can't go on like this, day after day.
...wouldn't have gone on this long except for, hmmmm, enablers? in the rest of the EU..
Merkel must wish she had a Wayback machine...
Must be a dull day...the alter egos are out :-)
Alter Egos are welcome.
Its 420 day. Alter egos are expected...
My bias is for a pop tomorrow morning into better resistance at 1340 and then we soften up (take profits) into the Long Weekend.
LB. Hope you're watching the Spurs/Arsenal match. It's been a "cracking affair."
Wonder what the odds are of Chelsea winning the EPL?
I'd take a long shot bet here.
@BruceInTenn:
Indeed. Enabling bad behavior has downside. Always.
AT
I feel the same, but, if we take out the recent SPX highs 1350+ might be quick.
I-Man
You around?
C'mon man... we miss ya
@Andy and Amen Ra
Nice redo and mods...Mr. Clean would be proud.
@Jennifer
It's been my good fortune to have rubbed shoulders with some interesting people over the last 35 years...Timothy Leary one of the lesser lights. One of my entertainment industry friends dragged him over for a dinner I hosted in the early eighties...for table wit and philosophy as it were.
He hogged the conversation...mumbling incoherently for about 90 minutes... before going face down into my veal piccata. So much for the LSD guru.
If that nonsense taught me anything at all, it's the following (cynical as it may sound):
"It's hard to lose money underestimating the intelligence of your audience."
I hosted a dinner
Bit of a re-edit dangle there...I'll leave it.
Sounds like, "I had a farm in Africa." lol
Hysterical! (veal piccata...yum...)
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