Morning Corner 4.1.11

WTI (weekly info)
new high 105.40
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 105.40
rev= 79.89; mid= 92.65


Just when you think the situation in the Middle East is settled. WTI breaking out to new highs. Price shock at the gas station coming to a pump near you.



Natural Gas (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 4.415
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 4.415
rev= 3.805; mid= 4.110


The alternative to nuclear had a weekly 3LB reversal last week. This week seems like a lot of indecision. It is holding its SMA(89) on the weekly chart. Also is very close to breaking back above its monthly 3LB mid. It also has held the one of the upper trend lines. A break of 4.660 will take out the next trend line (for this week anyway).



Seems appropiate for today...

44 comments:

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Forget the 107.06...my error. I meant 107.25...all better

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/harry-dent-major-crash-coming-stocks-commodities-already-20110331-080715-415.html

Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out


...Scary, isn't it...Aaron put this man on to help us?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent

Criticism

"Dent makes heavy use of charts, cycles, and trends, apart from his demographic theories in predicting short and intermediate term economic and stock cycles. His work is based primarily on the assumption that most long term stock market performance can be explained by long-term trends and charts from the past. His critics question the assumption that clues to all major stock market events can be found in the relatively short history of well functioning stock markets in the world. His work has been criticized also for heavy use of data dredging- where it is easy to find patterns in past data and assign predictive powers to them when many such patterns occur in every data collection purely by chance. Dent has been criticized also by many economists for being downright wrong in several of his predictions. In fact, www.maxfunds.com, a financial reporting site awarded him the The "Ultimate Charlatan"[2] Award. They write: "The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History ...." In his 2006 work, Dent predicted, “The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the NASDAQ['s] advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009 … The Great Boom['s] resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010.” Of course, those who read The Roaring 2000s, Dent's 1999 masterpiece, should soon be buying each of us a turkey with all the fixin's."

...Why do they trot these guys out? I think I like Macke's crayon...

Leftback said...

London calling. LB here.

A bit jet lagged and hungover at the same time after getting hammered last night. Waiting for the NFP number before heading to the airport.

The most important employment report in the history of the universe..

Readers may be curious about our activities - we have been short the long bond for a while and also long a pile of dividends and took a punt on some index longs at the Japanese earthquake sell-off. So it's been a profitable few weeks, and today is mufu momo day. But we will take risk off very soon.

Leftback said...

tick tock... where is everyone?

make some tea, bruce, old chap..

Leftback said...

and the number is..

+ 214k - this is a Goldilocks number

Consensus was 200k. This is a bond negative number, so we can go back to sleep now. Let's see where the bots trade this to by next Wednesday or so.

Next long bond auctions April 13 and 14. That might be the next big turn in the markets, so look for the correlations to break down around then, for now it is EURJPY positive, carry trades are go...

AmenRa said...

Labor force participation rate unchanged
Weekly hours unchanged

Wage growth nonexistent. Fed happy.

AmenRa said...

Yen trading below its weekly 3LB reversal price (1.19030). Carry trade back on in force. Damn.

AmenRa said...

1333.58 is the 100% rise from the low of 666.79.

Matthew said...

Welcome back leftback.

The price action in euro denominated bonds was quite amusing while you were gone.

I also took the opportunity to raise my equity position by about 1/3 during the risk purging. I have already started to cut back.

I think that we are at one of those points where nothing (other than cash) looks particularly appetizing. I suspect that I will just chill out until something looks good. I suspect, given trends, that high IG credit will be my first in, but who knows.

Wait and see.

Matthew said...

(I will obviously be cutting back on my equity overweight while I "chill out").

CV said...

@Matthew

"Chillin" here too (not that I'm trading - just buying physical PM's on dips)...

...but

This past week had me on the edge of my seat, wanting to add before a possible next leg up...

But I've decided I'm going to chill...

I can very easily see silver falling back into a trading range (between, say, $32, and the most recent high)...

If I get lucky - there might be a dip below $30 for a day or so (but I'm not predicting it - just see it as a possibility)...

If I'm WRONG about what I'm saying here (an the price breaks out), I'll sit it out because at some point, this $36 level probably needs to base (and the 'basing' process may take 6-8 months in my estimation)...

CV said...

Say what you will about the Fed (& banksters) being crooked...

But this merry-go-round "dog and pony show" that they appear to try and orchestrate using a combination of...

- QE jawboning
- Reporting fudging
- Accounting changes
- MSM cheerleading
- teleprompting
- & SHEEPS general stupidity &/or distraction propensities

Well... No doubt it'll all come crashing down some day, but they seem to be pretty deft at can kicking

Matthew said...

@CV

Physical metals are one of the most amusing investments. I have my gold, silver, and platinum in a safe here and it has an amusing effect on my (from an investment perspective).

1. I don't check to the price/value very often.
2. It's a pain in the ass to move into and out of positions, so I don't bother trading it (which is fine because it is more of insurance against government temerity anyway). For example, my silver position is triple the initial value. Normally, I would have been out of it a long time ago.

CV said...

@Matthew

Physical metals are one of the most amusing investments

I know what you're saying (and I pretty much agree)...

Actually, I don't think of them as INVESTMENTS... Instead, I think of them as INSURANCE POLICIES...

That's why I'm out of stocks & bonds anymore...

Fiat paper WILL (someday)... I don't want to say "go to ZERO", but let's take the middle ground and say you'll be OFFERED less than what you think it's worth (which is basically WHAT IT BUYS YOU TODAY) when it is converted to something else, and/or SIEZED in the name of national security (whereby you won't be able to REDEEM or WITHDRAWL it completely)...

It'll be doled out to you incrementally over a long period of time (never keeping up with real inflation), out of that LOCK BOX (ror), that they promise you they're keeping it safe & sound in (with the pitbull on guard)...

The only reason I check the prices (often), is because I want to find new, best, entry points...

Key word here is ACCUMULATION...

- Same way I accumulate nickles
- Same way I accumulate PVC pipes
- lumber
- flour
- rice
- beans
- cocoa
- sugar
- cooking oil (that's DL you hear laughing)
- seeds
- propane
- panels
- turbines
etc.

I'm really HOPING (as much as all of you people are) that the world doesn't fall apart on my(our watch)...

I'm just not 100% sure (like the Bernank is), that all of this engineering & academic lab experiments are going to work...

So I'll take the STUFF now (thank you very much)... :-)

AmenRa said...

CV

Make sure there are no "Men in Black" in your fitness classes. ROR

Anonymous said...

I hear ya CV, but, most people are on the other side of the fence about saving (in different ways). Stopped by a Subway sandwich place a couple of days ago while traveling. I was behind a few girls when they ordered. One of them said "I should have just brought my lunch, these are so expensive." Another girl said "don't worry, you buy the sandwich you want, I'll get the chips and drink." I'm thinking most of our working class may be in this situation, not sure what the near future is going to be and afraid to spend $5 on lunch. My point is, I doubt she can stock up on most supplies, much less buy PM's.

CV said...

@AmenRa

I kno right? :-)

CV said...

@Anon

The PM's are just an extension...

I'd consider it prudent to have 20% of your net worth allocated to PM's...

For someone whose net worth is $175... That means one silver round...

For someone whose net worth is $1,750,000, that means 10,000 oz of silver or 250 ounces of gold (or combination thereof)...

CV said...

Now look at it this way...

If silver goes to $80 (like Louise Yamada charts it)... 3,000 oz (now) of silver basically nets you the same to get you to your ratio...

Or, if you own the 10,000 oz and the price triples, you could peel some off if it meant that it took the % of your net worth to something greatly exceeding 20%

Andy T said...

Silver carving out yet another pennant pattern here nearer the highs (60min chart).

Awesome.

CV said...

@Andy (11:36)

Yeah, I'm really on the fence about this (as explained 10:21 above)...

Reason being... I've been cobbling together some cash for awhile waiting for a DIP to buy...

Instead... It may actually break out...

What I need to do is stick to my "discipline" in thinking that OVER TIME this thing is going higher...

But it's hard to get out of the TRADER mentality of "ticks"...

It's sort of like wandering around the grocery isles looking for the 79 cent sale on chicken roasters...

CV said...

Who here thinks that with the Russell 2000 breaking free... that the SPX isn't going to go to new highs for the year...

That was a 'survey' (not a tease)...

And CORN... WTFF?

AmenRa said...

Corn has taken out its high from early March.

CV said...

B U K_ _ _E

just went negative for a blip...

CV said...

I guess the "half life" of JAWBONING Fed President speeches isn't what it used to be...

CV said...

Gotta go peeps...

Is it Easter this weekend?

If so... Happy Easter!

If not... Well- Happy easter anyway (whenever it comes)...

AmenRa said...

Added the bull pic...

AmenRa said...

It doesn't help that this is the first day of the month. On a Friday no less. Which unfortunately means it may carry over to Monday. Probably shouldn't worry about it until QE2 ends. Then the market may act more normal.

AmenRa said...

Another thing. Even though there was a weekly 3LB reversal down a few weeks ago the SPX never traded below that close. Which meant there was no confirmation. Then it closed above the weekly 3LB after two days. Bear rug.

AmenRa said...

BKX, XLF, JNK, IQI, LQD, MUB, TIP, HYG, AGG all higher. I've seen beatdowns before but c'mon man!

AmenRa said...

Andy T

Would the firs two ours on a five minute chart of the SPX be considered three waves up? Don't mind me as I don't know the lingo for EWT.

AmenRa said...

If the Yankees win on opening day is that bullish or bearish for the markets? I know someone somewhere has this type of stat.

AmenRa said...

Looks like someone decided to bolt for the exit...

AmenRa said...

Hello?

Andy T said...

Let me check that AmenRa.

Also, I-Spy Apple stock underperforming the S&P500....

Interesting.

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL

who likes that AAPL Chart from finviz ?

complete w/ "Double Top" ..

I'm thinking it's right-on/accurate..
~~
Crude Oil 108.12 +1.40 +1.31
Natural Gas 4.346 -0.043 -0.98
Corn 736.00 +42.75 +6.17
Soybeans 1393.75 -16.50 -1.17
30yr Bond 120.40625 +0.21875 +0.18
10yr Note 118.968750 -0.062500 -0.05
NY Gold 1429.0 -10.9 -0.76
NY Silver 37.740 -0.148 -0.39
http://www.ino.com/

AAIP

Anonymous said...

AT,

yeah, right? I'm thinking AAPL is some prime Call-fading material..

ibid.

Andy T said...

On a 5-min chart, I'd have to characterize that move from today's open to the peak as "five wave" advance, fwiw. If I was just view it in isolation, that's a five-waver.

AmenRa said...

Oh hell no! NYSE TICKS after the close hit a new high tick of 1121. I don't know why. I did hear that Blackrock is being added to the S&P later today.

Anonymous said...

By MARY CLARE JALONICK
Associated Press

(AP:WASHINGTON) Like it or not, many restaurant diners will soon know more about what they are eating under new menu labeling requirements proposed by the Food and Drug Administration.

The new requirements will force chain restaurants with 20 or more locations, along with bakeries, grocery stores, convenience stores and coffee chains, to clearly post the amount of calories in each item on menus, both in restaurants and drive-through lanes. The new rules will also apply to vending machines.

The calorie counts, will apply to an estimated 280,000 establishments. Required as part of health overhaul legislation signed into law last year, they are designed to give restaurant diners information that has long been available on packaged goods cooked at home. The FDA estimates that a third of calories are consumed by eating out.

"We've got a huge obesity problem in this country and its due in part to excess calorie consumption outside the home," says Mike Taylor, FDA deputy commissioner for foods. "Consumers generally when you ask them say they would prefer to have that information."

But don't expect calorie shock when ordering at the movie theater, where a tub of popcorn can contain well north of a thousand calories _ movie theaters are exempt, along with airplanes, bowling alleys and other businesses whose primary business is not to sell food, according to the FDA.

Alcohol will also be exempted, according to the agency. Margo Wootan, director of nutrition policy at the advocacy group Center for Science in the Public Interest, says that could be misleading to consumers...."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68977662807001

what flippin' G*rbage..

ibid.

BinT JBingTFD said...

Good to hear from the Lefty...on the road today and missed the entire market. Visiting the new grandson and his mother won't let me pinch him, so I am trying to behave.

Plan to buy more UPRO until Mr. Market tells me no. I sort of feel like the old tech days...


Gorgeous weather...

BinT said...

later...see you guys Monday

AmenRa said...

BinT

Enjoy the time with your family.

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