Morning Corner 3.24.11

EURUSD (weekly info)
new high 1.4137
trend=up
high= 1.4137
rev= 1.3660; mid= 1.3899



Are we witnessing a double top in EURUSD? Came very close to its 11/10 high. Thanks to Portugal the high may now be in. Currently the weekly candle is bearish thrusting but may turn into a dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing before the week is over.



IWM/SPY Liquidity (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.6010
rev= 0.6281; mid= 0.6154


For a market that seems ready to break down, liquidity is still increasing. Is it retail coming in at the end of the trend? Has The Bernank issued the all clear? Are we approaching the edge of the cliff?

147 comments:

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42244041

Germany Steps Away From European Unity

...If this speculative article is true, this would be the most important news of the year, in my opinion. It would mean that the Germans have decided to take care of Germany, and that peripheral Europe may not be salvagable in the EU as it currently stands. Remember Germany now has a balanced budget amendment that goes into full effect in 3 years. No other country in Europe, save possibly Switzerland, has made any overtures in this manner.

I would think, if I were a betting man, that Germany will do very well no matter what happens to the rest of us. I am not as convinced about China.

Sorry I haven't posted much lately. We've been very busy. Rebought the UPRO and a couple of Japan funds.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/moody-s-downgrades-30-spanish-banks-maintains-ratings-for-santander-bbva.html

Moody’s Cuts Ratings on 30 Spanish Banks After Country Downgrade

AmenRa said...

So what happened in the AH to push futures to these extremes? Anyone? Bueller?

karen said...

good morning!! hope i didn't miss much in last night's thread.. i managed to nab David Stockman interview which I listened to part way.. had to go to bed.. btw..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/worst-texas-drought-in-44-years-eroding-wheat-beef-supply-as-food-rallies.html

1302.. was the overnight high??

AmenRa said...

karen

I think the AH session is trying to setup a blow through stops type of morning. Because they've failed in their efforts so far.

karen said...

The dollar is getting ridiculous now.. i think it is a buy..

karen said...

this is amazing.. mind boogling: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/amazing-statistic-in-housing-market.htm

Sales are now just half the pace of 1963 -- even though there are 120 million more people in the United States now.

karen said...

oops..

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/amazing-statistic-in-housing-market.html

karen said...

UFB, open.. AR at 9:17.. dead on.. tho many were waiting for 1304 to short.. so we will see.

karen said...

http://ewallstreeter.com/syndicated/38382/capital-one-financial-down-dividend-item-to-blame

and now that's it.. i'm not going to subject you to my link fests any longer!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I agree with whoever said that jobs are a big reason the housing market isn't recovering. Plus, well, 100% financing, loans to non-qualified buyers, and yada yada and yada...

karen said...

i'm watching copper today.. if it doesn't return sub 53 (along with FCX) than forget shorting anything..

karen said...

Bruce! please tell what your brother got!! I love your home.. and how far away is he from you?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

He is probably going to buy the buy of a lifetime. 4000 foot home built in 1998 (gorgeous), full basically new barn with horse stalls (very nice), separate 3 car garage with MIL upstairs furnished, bordered on one side by all year mountain stream (about 7-8 feet wide), 8 acres, spring fed pond, and he will get it for 2/3 the listing price of 2 years ago. (Wife's husband died.)

This is a steal. I could not believe it when he and his wife took us out to see it.

bob said...

Glad someone else sees these things-

http://www.forexlive.com/175623/all/irish-govt-no-expectations-of-rate-cut-on-bailout-loan-at-summit

The summit to end all summits (we were led to believe) will not sort out the final details of the Irish bailout nor the final funding metrics for the ESM (the goal of the summit). Other than that, it will achieve all its goals…

Unreal…

Bruce in Tennessee said...

He will be about 12 miles from our farm.

karen said...

bruce.. if permissible, can you send us a link to the listing? or maybe post some pics on your foto blog when time permits? the latter might be better to preserve privacy.. i'd love to see architecture, landscape, etc.. not interior pics, necessarily.

karen said...

way to go BAC! down, LOL.. great work by the fed and treasury creating these SUPER TBTFs

karen said...

Keith McCullough
Americans aren't dumb enough to take on The Bernank's dare to lever themselves up again

HARDLY TRUE! many credit card debts were negotiated for cents on the dollar.. others written off..

ben22 said...

NLY getting into the danger zone

Jennifer said...

CRZO lost its moving averages.

Jennifer said...

Couldn't overtake ES VWAP on that little move up.

karen said...

Walgreen's is buying drugstore.com so it's up 111%.. how great would it have been to have owned that!

karen said...

Myanmar just got a 7.0.. 2 of them from twitter reports.. only one showing here:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

ben22 said...

ketih McCullough in some ways appears wrong

at the very least, the idea that the beard will support markets is mainstream, and margin is at 07 highs....which is leverage of course

ben22 said...

@J,

re: CRZO

look at that chart this morning! it seems to be falling under its own weight and there are no gaps

also, thanks for the link last night to the volume review on the futures taking out the small lot orders, that was a lot of interesting data

Jennifer said...

Ben -- glad you liked that. They find some really interesting stuff over there. (Of course, I'm not sure what to do with most of it!)

AmenRa said...

Durable goods WTE in all categories. Consumer comfort index at its lowest in years. WTI holding above 105. Silver about to break 38. Yet the market is still trying to push higher. Bah humbug.

karen said...

FXA.. we can't go down til it does.

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

I've seen stuff like that before where you set Level 2 to show only lots of 500 or greater. One of the ways to watch the big boys.

AmenRa said...

Hee hee. The algos keep looking for buy stops just above 1300 but keep finding sells instead.

Jennifer said...

If this turns into a repeat of yesterday I will be really upset.

karen said...

and FXE at HOD.. everything makes perfect sense.. yup.

Jennifer said...

Remember the older financial advisor I told you about a long time ago (friends w/ my dad, spent a week hanging out in his office 2 summers ago) well they are visiting my folks now (and undoubtably spending some time on that nice green pictured above...) well, he had a ton of clients in ...Lubrizol. Needless to say, they are all very happy.

Jennifer said...

I have some issues with this most recent SPX 60 minute candle. It should not be green.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

Check your e-mail...

Sorry, busy.

BinT

Jennifer said...

EEM looks shortable here.

Jennifer said...

whoa -- huge trin move

ben22 said...

ok, here's something I'll throw out for discussion

how many people try charting in log scale but with arithmetic fibo retracements?

ben22 said...

@Jennifer,

now Im' not remembering if it was in that link but on top of all the volume information, did you see the spike in P/C ratio yesterday?

Bears need a reversal today or tomorrow at the very latest

Otherwise, we might need to learn to paddle in another direction for a while....

I'm staying patient for now.

ben22 said...

@AT,

On SPY, the 61.8% retrace of the whole move is 130.53

if we retrace above that does it squash the d wave in your view?

also, what do you think about the idea of a diametric rather than an ET going on here

the d wave shouldn't have been this strong it seems

AmenRa said...

That 10:55-11:05 move was to close that damn gap from 3/14. Without the extra push it would not get filled. Now that that's over can we get on with the down move? WTI now holding above 106, silver blew through 38, gold at new highs.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

106.23...it won't be pretty soon..

ben22 said...

a bull flag within a bull flag within a bull flag within a bull flag

great if you are long!

karen said...

Lawrence McDonald
Euro Dollar (1.42) strength is bizarre in the face of a Portugal meltdown, mkt clearly pricing in ECB interest rate hikes well ahead of USA

bob said...

Ben

I don't like log scales because, almost by definition, they make recent trends less easy to see.

Over decades it may be a different story.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

What'd ya think?

karen said...

Bruce, I didn't receive anything from you.. not sure what email address you used for me..

karen said...

CAT new high today..

Jennifer said...

So...think the Neely trade is going to get stopped out?

karen said...

Laszlo Birinyi: Market Is Only Halfway Through Bull Run http://dlvr.it/LKcS1

AmenRa said...

This market is like watching a traffic accident in slow motion...

karen said...

last 3 days, spy could not get above mid point on 6 month BB chart.. today it opened above and took off.

Jennifer said...

SPX 60 min 50 sma is at 1309.87 -- looks like we will get there. Should be resistance, but today, who knows.

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

That's odd because the 50% of the 0%-14.6% retrace on the monthly 3LB is 1309.86.

karen said...

52 here today, overcast skies and damp from overnight rain.. i just make a blazing hot fire.. it is the end of march.. haven't put run the heater once this winter and won't give in now : )

karen said...

dont' even look at agq from january..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I used the address on you blogsite...sorry I am so intermittent today, we're swamped.

karen said...

just did some charts.. the real number for the spx today is 1311 or so..

bears can JGTFU at that point, imo.

will send to ben. 1300 was a line in the sand, but 1311 is absolutely it..

AmenRa said...

karen

Shhh!! The algos might hear you :-)

BTW 1311.11 is the weekly 3LB mid.

karen said...

Bruce.. there is nothing in that gmail address inbox.. odd. i will go to your blog and email you my address..

karen said...

okay, bruce that doesn't work because i don't see your email there : )

I-Man said...

YM 12210 tomorrow morning, 3/25, should cap it...

ben22 said...

Bob,

yes, short term trends wont' show up much on the log

many ta's (most?) swear by log charts though over periods of more than 3-4 years

arithmetic seem to show price retracements better

I utilize both but have much more confidence in log charts long term, the idea being with people working with all different amounts, what matters are the percentages.

karen said...

agree.. i take log out of 3 and 4 year charts..

I-Man said...

Speaking of retracements... just for kicks take your fibs out of the scale, and sub in the plain old geometrical proportions of 100, 75, 50, 25, and 12.5...

Might be surprised by what you see...

ben22 said...

@Jennifer,

I primarily operate off the weekly trades right now with Neely's service, nothing stopped out yet.

karen said...

this is something to see! you must look at these charts on the different scales..

http://pragcap.com/commodity-prices-world-demand-fun-with-government-data

karen said...

$compq MUST stay below 2740

karen said...

i made a special case for he dow, because it's THE PEOPLES index.. 12200..

karen said...

131.50 spy..

ben22 said...

what's with the google homepage today, what's that design supposed to be?

ben22 said...

this all makes sense in bizzaro world:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Euros-Collapse-Is-Not-cnbc-1267399148.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

I-Man said...

At first glimpse, I thought it was Houdini...

karen said...

this is an interesting video, not from the aspect of women in finance but the discussion on investor risk appetite.. it is from 8 March.. Japan earthquake was 3-11.. (yikes, 11 is shaping up to be a scary day of the month..)

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67405792/

AmenRa said...

Someone is knocking down the silver price. Someone else is working on WTI.

Monday is looming for PMs.

Nothing will come of the EU summit.

I-Man said...

For Bob:

http://www.thedailybell.com/1922/EU-Bust-Up-Seems-Closer-As-Portuguese-Default-Looms.html

ben22 said...

I was watching that show Pawn Stars late a few weeks back, guy brought in an actual set of Houdini's cuffs, can't remember the number but they were worth a lot of money.

Jennifer said...

APMEX just sent me an email w/ an ad for silver below spot. Top?

I see I missed another oppty to BTD while I was away.

bob said...

I

EUR went from 14050 to 14224 on the news.

Reality matters little, leverage matters big, and retail shorts are SCREAMING right now.

bob said...

I

And look at the 1h on the EUR now...is that another flag?

karen said...

i love the euro but it doesn't even have a cohesive tax system to back it up..

if euo makes a lower low (17.68 previous) I may just go for it.. missed YCS but it only woulda been good for one lousy point and has since languished..

72bat said...

ben -
Harry Houdini 137th Birthday Google Logo

karen said...

excellent, imo:

http://www.dynamichedge.com/2011/03/24/hand-crafted-short-squeeze-reversal/

karen said...

from the same blog: I’m feeling like we’re at the crossroads of a big sentiment trade. The market doesn’t owe you new highs because you were “brave” enough to buy the nuclear meltdown trade. By the same token, like the market doesn’t owe you new lows because you were prudent when others were reckless.

Hopefully we have a little bit more two-way trade in the near term before we go back into grind mode. I’m very cautious here. Remember, the market owes you nothing.

http://www.dynamichedge.com/2011/03/21/complacency/

I-Man said...

Not sure, havent even been watching it, just saw the 1.42 print earlier and was giving Jah Bob some props...

Could be, I'm long for another run and gun in the YM. Looking at 12138 or so for this one.

Anonymous said...

jbtfd

I-Man said...

By my clock, we're due for a minor trend change on the 3min YM chart at about 10 til 3pm, NY time.

Thats when I'm looking to book gains on this one.

bob said...

It peaked on tuesday, to the pip of that 261

ben22 said...

oh brother, BP is now short gold and silver again as of now

I should buy SLV calls back.....

karen said...

Prechter??

ben22 said...

So, it's the Houdini Rally!

I knew there must be a catalyst!

I-Man said...

Nurse, adrenaline shot please... the patient has flatlined.

karen said...

ha! i "advised" my husband-x to sell the usagx he bot as it was in the money yesterday and surely still today.. turns out he only threw 25k at it..

I-Man said...

Your "X" want to bankroll the I-Man for his June equity campaign?

Gonna be epic...

I-Man said...

That was a joke, btw...

"I'm just kiddin like Jason... unless ya gun do it."

:)

ben22 said...

yeah, not the oil company

ole bobby P.

I think this is about the 34th time shorting gold and the 62nd time shorting silver

I don't get the short term charts anymore but I used to send them to AT when I did so he can back me up here when I say they likely have a 1-2 label from today's highs

I don't even have the heart to laugh about it

I certainly don't share the euphoria on the pm's that many do....but shorting here?

bold

I-Man said...

Misguided to say the least... not with my money.

ben22 said...

oooh, look at it now, a third wave down is imminent in SLV

I'm tempted to buy this mini dip just to fade those guys, but that'd be stupid.

karen said...

acknowledgement that the crisis still persists:

Japan says must review nuclear power policy as crisis persists http://tinyurl.com/4v2d2y7

karen said...

Breaking: Yemen's president and top general are hashing out a deal to resign within days http://on.wsj.com/f4zeyQ

karen said...

nakedtrader.com
Hearing: NATO to take command of Libya.

ben22 said...

Check out this f**king chart

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=1204&mode=view

Jennifer said...

Ben -- went back and re-read the Neely stuff. I suspect that his perspective will have changed even though the weekly trades haven't been stopped out. ES has traded above both 1294 and 1304, which were important #s for the hourly and day traders. Interesting to see what tomorrow's update brings.

ben22 said...

oh....that's forking

8-)

ben22 said...

Jennifer,

he might not change much, might just move to the diametric interpretation instead

we'll know within 24 hours I guess

karen said...

ben.. best thing.. most interesting chart, i've seen all day.. thanks!

I-Man said...

Dont fuck with the fork, yo...

ben22 said...

suppose this gap will get closed now too....1320 next stop then....

ben22 said...

I don't agree with that blah blah about Newtons law though within the chart


it aint physics peeps!

karen said...

oh, sh*t on spx

I-Man said...

Its Gann in disguise... just like all other forms of TA.

haha...

karen said...

that's that! and a close above.. ugly.. btw bot dzz at 7.75..

I-Man said...

Alpha and Omega...

karen said...

hope these are famous last words: Dow industrials up more than 100 points in final hour of session
03/24/2011 03:26:24 PM

karen said...

why don't i cancel those headlines... so annoying and worthless.

I-Man said...

Whats the point of a lower high in a nascent downtrend if the herd isnt convinced its a downtrend yet?

If the herd thought this was a new downtrend, there would be no lower high to sell.

Just an observation...

I-Man said...

To put it bluntly, we need everyone who thinks this is just a "correction" to buy, and we need everyone who wants to short, or is already short, to get burned.

Then we have a lower high.

karen said...

Reuters Top News
Radiation scare leaves Tokyo short of bottled water reut.rs/eWzlYq

My friend was told if she tried to send water to her friends in Tokyo, it would be stolen..

ben22 said...

who needs water when you can print yen?

AmenRa said...

CME hikes silver margins...again.

karen said...

gld tryng to hang on to 50 ema on 60 min chart.. that's a false hope..

karen said...

AR, maybe the margin raise will be seen as bullish (i.e., desperate) as the last one? slv barely budged and took to the skies after the last raise..

karen said...

Bespoke
With 20 minutes left in the day, the Nasdaq needs just 4 more points to get to its 50-day. $$
(that's also my 2740 number..

ben22 said...

it has no impact, if people are bullish enough you could raise margin every day for a week and they'd just buy more

I think that's two in the last three months on silver right?

karen said...

topstep: Goldie sells 400 to 500 SPMs last 5 mins

AmenRa said...

ben

I believe so. The last one was when silver was trying to stay below $30.

AmenRa said...

Maybe Goldie had an early peak at GDP...

karen said...

RIMM after the close.. should be very very bad.. androids and iphones rule.

Jennifer said...

SPX right up against trendline coming down from 1344 peak.

karen said...

Jenn.. i have that pegged at 1311ish on my chart.. AR, has 1311.11 as important 3LB #.

karen said...

oops.. and 131.50 SPY, or slightly under..

ben22 said...

@J,

AT knows way more than me about the Neo wave methods

he mentioned here a few days ago this gap getting closed at 1318-1320 area and said nothing about the count changing there so we might see nothing different from Neely tomorrow at all

unfortunately I've had to set that book to the side for a time to focus on some other ones.

Jennifer said...

Not sure exactly where it lines up, but this is what I see...

http://screencast.com/t/8iXFMs3ZqdEb

AmenRa said...

SMA(55) 1302.12
EMA(55) 1291.73
SMA(50) 1305.01
EMA(50) 1294.25

AmenRa said...

So todays goal was to stay above EMA(50) and try and get a close above SMA(50). That would hopefully convince the bulls all is safe in lala land.

Jennifer said...

Later, traders. I need some time to think about this (horrible) day!

karen said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/plaza-hotel-condo-sold-for-48-million-sets-manhattan-real-estate-record.html

I-Man said...

Later yall, off to hunt chrome slime rockets...

Andy T said...

I sold Silver today.

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/someone-leak-something


Something rather disturbing from a European trading desk...

TODAY TWO LARGE MACRO FUNDS OVER HERE HAVE GONE WILDLY LONG S&P. NOT LONG. WE TALKING 250% NET LONG. IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERTED ACTION ON GDP DGRADES FROM GS AND BOFA ARE THE LETTER DELIVERED TO BEN ON QE3. HUGE DIRECTIONAL BET WITH NEW CAPITAL PUT AT WORK. MOST LIKELY THE TWO INSTITUTIONS ARE COORDINATING ACTION WITH OFFICES IN CONNECTICUT. CHECK INFLOWS OF BLUE CHIP HEDGE FUNDS IN JAN FEB. APPLY 2.5 LEVERAGE. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOME 40-60BN PUT AT WORK PRIMARILY ON EMINIS AT THE MOMENT. WHETHER SOME EXTERNAL FORCE WILL LEAVE THEM HIGH AND DRY I DON'T KNOW. BUT IF ANYTHING SEEMED TO BE AT LEAST NOT TOO IRRATIONAL UP TO NOW, IN THIS THIRD WAVE, BE READY FOR REAL ROCK AND ROLL.

karen said...

i can't leave till rimm reports..

ben22 said...

AT,

dude, you be trading with Hochberg

good luck

any thoughts on market today?

AmenRa said...

karen

Must mean GDP might be negative. Ruh roh?

Anonymous said...

AR,

I've a hard time believing that D.C. would lay out a - GDP #, here...

we're getting into 'end of Month/QTR' and warming up for the 'Summer Vacay'-planning Season..
~~

This 'Market' looks well 'in-hand' ..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

RIMM has some serious f****** problems.

ibid.

the only thing that might 'save' the share price is 'short-interest'..

Anonymous said...

Pump Truck with Long Boom Headed to Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant
March 24th, 2011

…usually used for concrete pouring…

Via: Xinhua:

A Chinese-made pump truck with a long boom will leave Shanghai for Japan Tuesday after the owner of the troubled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant requested it, according the vehicle’s manufacturer.

The vehicle with a 62-meter boom is scheduled to be shipped Tuesday morning. It is expected to arrive at the port of Osaka, Japan on Wednesday or Thursday.

The vehicle was manufactured by Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. based in Changsha, capital city of central China’s Hunan Province, for a customer in Saudi Arabia.

On March 19, the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), which owns the Fukushima power plant, asked the Chinese embassy in Japan and Sany for the pump truck.

With the Saudi Arabian customer’s agreement, Sany decided to provide the pump truck to TEPCO free of charge. The vehicle, usually used for concrete pouring, is valued at 1 million U.S. dollars.

http://cryptogon.com/?p=21412

ibid.

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