TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles

Morning Audibles - 1.7.11

OK... So making the usual rounds last evening I came up with this...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

from BR...

"Another thing: I have been adding more curated content to the Think Tank — not just the usual circle of authors, but additional people..."

Great! can't wait! Right? So first thing... Bright & Early this morning we get...

Exceprt (more like INTRO):
"U.S. stocks were mixed today, holding onto most of this week’s gains ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated nonfarm payroll figures. Anticipation is running high"

Jack McHugh

---

So let me get this straight, Ritzy makes the supreme effort to bleat about this fancy new stable of Arabian horses, and the first line penned tells me...

- what stocks did yesterday
- how that compares to the weekly performance

(both of which I could have easily figured out on my own if I'd just have sat & watched "The View" or "Oprah" with a tape ticker passing by underneath, and passed the time adding or subtracting droplets of water into an Erlenmeyer flask to reflect an up or down tick)...

But now comes the "piece de la resistance"!... drumroll please!

"...AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED NONFARM PAYROLL FIGURES..."

(cue the "Hee Haw" Donkey Laugh)

Actually - I like Jack McHugh (so it's nothing against him)... It's just this seemingly non-stop campaign for everything on the planet to wind up as a hyperbole ...

For fun, I actually decided to Google... "the most important in history"... Nothing scientific here, I just clicked on the first page that came up in the search for that one... It's a hoot (or "Hoot-Smalley" as Michelle Bachmann might call it)...

http://top-10-list.org/2009/10/24/ten-most-important-history-events/

The signing of the Constitution was the most important event in history (according to this site)... Yeah - tell that to a Latvian Milk Farmer... Anyway, it becomes insufferable if you go in and read the things that were nominated (and more specifically - the explanations why)...

It's clear that whoever wrote that crap was getting paid by the job, not the thought, or man-hours... Here were some of my favorites...

#9 Death of Jesus - "Jesus was the founder of Christianity"... Yeah, he "founded" it... Sat down right there in a room and said "Hey guys - let's FOUND a religion"... We'll name it after... ME!... Yeah, that would be good, I like my name... It'll go DOWN IN HISTORY forevermore (the way that Mondays & Thursdays will never be the same again since the two recently anointed great prophets put their eternal stamp on those days)...

God created the world in 6 days... On the 7th day he rested saying "this day is reserved for ME"... (but nowadays 2 out of those other 6 have been weaseled away from the great God Almighty himself!)... Hallelujah! Can I get a witness?!?!

People will drink wine and eat little wafers in my honor... They'll pass along stale fruitcakes, and tie bows onto Lexuses in December... & they'll paint eggs and eat chocolate bunnies in the spring... Hey! I like this FOUNDING business..."

Anyway - go take a look at this page for kicks... At minimum, it'll relieve the nervous tension you have building up inside you while you're waiting for the MOST IMPORTANT NFP NUMBER IN HISTORY to be released... Here it is again... Observing "car wrecks" is very inspirational...

http://top-10-list.org/2009/10/24/ten-most-important-history-events/

I decided to do my own MOST IMPORTANT list... Why? Because I've recently become a candidate for the MOST IMPORTANT SILLY ASSED BLOG IN ALL OF HISTORY! I walk to work every day...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqhlQfXUk7w

No list would be complete without...

The Most Important Phone Call in the History of the World

What could this kid possibly be talking about on the phone at a moment like this?

The Most Important Cab Ride from the Airport in the History of the World

The Most Important Souvenir Shop in the History of the World

"What? You mean to tell me you're out of the little "pissing King Tut" statues?

I had my heart set on one of those!"

Oh wait... Time Out!... Another "whopper of a revelation" yesterday from TWSW(redesigns his)B (which, by the way, was the Most Important blog re-design in the History of the World)... Anyway, says TWSW(RH)B "One last item: I am debating bringing on a researcher/intern. I am not sure about the position"...

Not sure??? (says CV)... Why not start by dialing up the intern responsible for:

The Most Important...Ummm... "Book Signing"... In the History of the World

The Most Important 80's Tune in the History of the World

The Most Important Teleprompter in the History of the World

I'm going to cut it off right here and go eat the Most Important Breakfast Feast in the History of the World!

Go make your own history today... Or don't!... I doubt anyone will really notice what you do unless you shove it right in their face and halfway down their throat...

268 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 268 of 268 Newer› Newest»

ben22 said...: Ben Inker from GMO in late 2007, this seems to fall on deaf ears as I constantly see people talking p/e and trying to compare it to back in the day:

"Earnings are not measured the same way they used to be. While historical price-earnings data are based on net earnings, analysts now use operating earnings, which tend to inflate the collective bottom line by about 15%, he says. Of course, as the "e" in p-e rises, the ratio falls, making the market look cheaper."

guess its one of those apples and oranges things that only matter if you want it to.....; January 7, 2011 at 3:19 PM
karen said...: darn it i blinked.. : ); January 7, 2011 at 3:19 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Karen,

Lefty was exaggerating. I have it on good authority that the last reunion his mother took him to, at age 8, one of his cousins who was hosting it told her to leave her monkey outside.

He still cries about it today...; January 7, 2011 at 3:19 PM
CV said...: NEW CHART IN THREAD

CV's view on things...; January 7, 2011 at 3:30 PM
karen said...: NEAT, CV!! my line in the sand! also.. NOW there is an H&S forming on SPY.. and this could be the right shoulder!; January 7, 2011 at 3:34 PM
karen said...: I should have added H&S on a 30 or 60 min chart over 5 or 6 days..; January 7, 2011 at 3:35 PM
karen said...: oh darn.. they took out my sand line.. i want a do over!; January 7, 2011 at 3:36 PM
karen said...: or, i want the H&S to take over now.. the bigger one.; January 7, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Jennifer said...: Re: selling cash secured puts -- I went to a seminar at the CBOE in July of '09. It was fascinating for many reasons, just not the subject matter. The target audience was pension fund managers mostly (I went to this one because it fit best into my schedule and I'd won the thing at a school auction). The educational branch of the CBOE, called the Options Institute, clearly exists to drum up more options business. The group as a whole simply could not grasp the resoning behind selling cash secured puts as an alternative to being invested in some allegedly low risk fixed income product. They were collectively resistant to 1) options products -- they couldn't grasp that if you are the seller of the wasting asset the fact that it wastes away is a good thing 2) anything new in general -- they had such limited discretion that any "new" investment approach would need approval at so many levels it was too mind-boggling for them to comprehend 3) committing to purchasing something at a future lower price -- too much fear that it would be dramatically lower than their chosen strike price and they would look dumb. Not sure they could have looked dumber as a group than they already did since no one seemed to even understand what was happening in the world at large. I met a few interesting people though so overall it was worth it for me.; January 7, 2011 at 3:36 PM
karen said...: KeithMcCullough
bulls trying their best to make this mkt not close down for the 2nd day in a row for the 1st time ($SPY) since November 29/30; its a battle; January 7, 2011 at 3:37 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: This does have kind of an unfinished feeling about it. You could certainly argue that there might be some follow through on Monday.

But we are not trading stocks. Just fading the move in bonds.; January 7, 2011 at 3:37 PM
Jennifer said...: My tonsillectomy patient is not making a good recovery so I don't know when I'll be around -- she's napping now though so I'm getting caught up.; January 7, 2011 at 3:37 PM
Jennifer said...: Back to puts -- I think it all comes down to a lack of good math skills. Throw in a little market bias, and the weird fears that kick in when prices go down, and you get lots of irrational behavior.; January 7, 2011 at 3:38 PM
I-Man said...: I get the feeling that no one playing really knows who is fighting the tape at this point.

My gut is we're going higher, but yall know that already.; January 7, 2011 at 3:40 PM
Matthew said...: "Telecoms are off again, today. We own NZT, T and VZ. We also own BIG Pharma (MRK, BMY, PFE). We own NLY and CIM."

LB:

You are making me nervous. I own T, NZT, and CIM. (I don't own any big pharma because I am too stupid to analyze a dev. pipeline). I am not accumulating any of these, but I will on any significant dip.

You also seem to be watching the same spreads as I and have a similar FI strategy.

Ben might also be similar (albeit, he never tells any of his positions).

I don't like it when people do what I do. It usually happens when I am in a herd and don't know it.; January 7, 2011 at 3:41 PM
karen said...: Mathew.. no worries.. half of LB's trades are delusions.; January 7, 2011 at 3:43 PM
Jennifer said...: Matthew -- I felt the same way in late '08 when all my favorite bear blogs started cross-referencing each other. The next thing I knew, we were up something like 800 points in one day at the end of October.; January 7, 2011 at 3:43 PM
I-Man said...: Lets all play nice, now...; January 7, 2011 at 3:44 PM
CV said...: @karen

If it's a time triange that's trying to complete, it looks like 127.26 - 127.41 could be a range that it would like to settle into that probably has another day to maneuver around within...

I haven't looked at the EARNINGS REPORTING calendar yet... But AA should be out next week with...

"The Most Important Earnings Season Report of All-Time"...; January 7, 2011 at 3:45 PM
AmenRa said...: We took out R1 & R2 in the first 10 min on Monday. To see them get taken out on the way back down was too much for the bulls constitution.; January 7, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Matthew said...: LB is way more sophisticated than I am anyway.

For example, the temptation to enter the widow maker is constantly tugging his nuts. I suspect he will deftly enter the trade at the right time and avoid the cold steel.; January 7, 2011 at 3:48 PM
karen said...: CV.. i hear ya.. i'm still keeping an eye on BAC and GS.. as well as IBM.. AA is another for the Dow.. yikes..; January 7, 2011 at 3:48 PM
karen said...: And, I suspect that Mathew and LB are one in the same.; January 7, 2011 at 3:49 PM
CV said...: @AFIA2BNL (3:37)

"Unfinished Look"...

There's only one other acceptable theory on how to play these markets...

"Grip it and Rip it"...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_2KWie9hAQ&feature=related; January 7, 2011 at 3:49 PM
ben22 said...: Jennifer,

no worries, 8% per year, bank on it.

btw, pretty cool thing to win there.; January 7, 2011 at 3:50 PM
karen said...: Bruce.. did you buy today's dip? you know I want to, but i can't.. LOL.. I need to get a new religion..

I-Man.. I'm fighting the Pavlov Dog Syndrome.. that's why I'm not making any money.. : ); January 7, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Jennifer said...: Well..."won" might be the wrong word to use...it was a silent auction and I was the only bidder :-) It was pretty cool though -- even with the pain of lining up 2 full days of child care.; January 7, 2011 at 3:53 PM
ben22 said...: I wish I could say more direct positions I have but it could cause some issues b/c of the job if anyone caught on to me posting here

I'm not buying any stocks for clients right now, I still think some upside is left but I don't love the risk reward, some divvies are understandable though.

on the equity side I'm more about holding more cash right now for a larger short opportunity which I think is not too far away.; January 7, 2011 at 3:56 PM
I-Man said...: I hear ya K, I didnt deserve to make money today, but I still did... a rockin $30 that didnt cover my costs.

Even studs like the I lose money when they fight the trend.

If my boss sees how I tried to buy that dip a few times I will hear about it for sure.

Helps when you still manage to squeak out positive tho.

That being said, it was herky jerky today for sure, hard to keep my winners on, took alot of small gains and small losses.

Over-traded, basically.; January 7, 2011 at 3:57 PM
ben22 said...: ha, the only bidder, I would have been all over that

I bet this crew often finds interest in things other people don't give a second thought to.; January 7, 2011 at 3:57 PM
I-Man said...: I woulda bid that shit too...

:); January 7, 2011 at 3:59 PM
CV said...: @I-Man (other page)

"7 years of college down the drain!"

Senator "Bluto" Blutarsky; January 7, 2011 at 3:59 PM
karen said...: LOL!! "There is only one thing that determines the near-to-intermediate term market action; easy money and liquidity.
Do you wonder why the dip is bought? Look no further than ZIRP. Wonder why there is no pullback while QE I, II, etc. is underway? Why do you think indicators based on technicals or sentiment stretches to historic levels?
All of the comments of a government controlled market, of how the Fed Chairman lies to perpetuate his ends, and the conspiracy theories are all true. Buy until the money ceases to freely flow. I know that it seems awfully simplistic and that doesn’t mean to be stupid about chasing . But it is the 100% gospel and honest truth. Almost nothing, and I mean short of a nuclear war, really matters. This is what the entire Wall Street and Banking complex lives and dies by. Everything else is just noise.
That is all. Have a great weekend!"

http://ibankcoin.com/scott_bleier/2011/01/07/gonna-make-this-easy-for-you/; January 7, 2011 at 4:01 PM
karen said...: gotta run.. kept my faz.. any non-heathens, pray for me, pls.; January 7, 2011 at 4:02 PM
ben22 said...: so being stuck home a couple days now, and watching some day time tv all I have to say is

I'm 100% certain there is a GIB

I have "no doubt"

I feel like I need a shower after some of these shows; January 7, 2011 at 4:03 PM
I-Man said...: That Scott Bleier dude sounds like a real douche trader who cant make money.; January 7, 2011 at 4:05 PM
spoonman said...: Throw away your television, Ben. You'll be smarter. Trust me.; January 7, 2011 at 4:07 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We were a bit busy during that flurry of posts. In fact, we have added some (delusional) positions on the short side in Treasuries.

It is interesting that Matthew owns the same instruments, but not especially alarming. The "muddle through" school isn't all that large at the moment, but it simply espouses holding instruments that yield dividend or interest income, while using cash to enable trading around other stuff that goes up and down in a more volatile manner, like Karen's moods.; January 7, 2011 at 4:07 PM
ben22 said...: David Tepper wannabe

nobody replicates DT, nobody!; January 7, 2011 at 4:07 PM
Simon LeBon said...: "any non-heathens, pray for me, pls."

Don't say a prayer for me now..
Save it till the morning after.; January 7, 2011 at 4:08 PM
CV said...: Gotta run too... (back to the farm)...

I wouldn't recommend any plays on the LSU - Texas A&M game tonight...

Vegas finally blinked and moved the line to LSU -2.5... It means they're chasing a little and want to hedge a little...

The over/under moved to 55% over 45% under and bounced to 49.5

That would make me nervous too because it almost is telling you that this could end up to be an OVERTIME affair...

You get killed taking the UNDER if a game goes to overtime in college football...

I'll keep my powder dry (for Oregon)...; January 7, 2011 at 4:09 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We resisted the siren call of the widowmaker yesterday and avoided any damage today. You know we will be back to it when the risk/reward set-up looks good. Right now we don't see any big events to drive Bucky above the DXY 81 level. A break to DXY 83 would really release the hounds....

This commodity bull is gonna die but it's going to run around and gore a few more people before it rolls over....; January 7, 2011 at 4:12 PM
I-Man said...: Maybe if that Bleier cat bought a few more big shiny monitors he'd be able to see the charts better...; January 7, 2011 at 4:12 PM
ben22 said...: two things worth noting

lowry's is still stating there is strong participation on the upside, breadth is still there

Richard Russell's PTI recently hit a new high and is climbing; January 7, 2011 at 4:15 PM
Anonymous said...: So what Scott Bleier is saying is:

JBTFD.; January 7, 2011 at 4:16 PM
ben22 said...: based on after hours I wouldn't be surprised to see a gap up on monday; January 7, 2011 at 4:24 PM
Jennifer said...: whoops -- DOJ investigating FedEx and UPS for antitrust violations...that might put a dent in the dow theory.; January 7, 2011 at 4:26 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The Imaginary Bond Report 1.7.11

Not too difficult today. It was risk-off all day after the usual NFP non-confirmation of ADP pantomime (look out, the recession is behind you!) so Treasuries and IG were bid and HY was sold across the curve.

Corpies: LQD 0.50%; AGG 0.32%; JNK -0.50%; HYG -0.38%
Govies: TLT 0.53%; IEI 0.51%; TIP 0.32%
Hedgies: TBT -1.17%

We sold a chunk of TIP today, mainly to raise cash that we will put to work after the 10y/30y auctions. Ahead of that we are short the long end by 16% of our portfolio. We continue to hold 22% HYG, 3% LQD and now 10% TIP. So we are moderately hedged against rate risk for now. (In a strictly delusional kind of way, obviously...) Looking forward, we will plod along until we see outstanding opportunities to get into Treasuries if things continue to get exceptionally frothy in equities and high yield in the face of the recoveryless recovery.; January 7, 2011 at 4:26 PM
I-Man said...: No, he's saying that this is a "government controlled market", which is complete bullshit.

I think he's whining about how the market "is" because its not "what he wants it to be".; January 7, 2011 at 4:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Agreed, we are making coin most days and have a very limited amount of risk on, so we are not too unhappy. Don't fight the tape.; January 7, 2011 at 4:37 PM
I-Man said...: TJIF...; January 7, 2011 at 4:42 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Yup. Very decent week here, really.
The best trades were the ones we didn't put on.

A modest widow-maker made money, the HYG/TIP combo gained.
Add in the TP (Tepper premium) in DF and we did just fine.; January 7, 2011 at 4:46 PM
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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Audibles - 1.7.11

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