Morning Audibles 9.2.10 - Secret Sauce

So we had a big "long white candle" day yesterday... Bulls are out again right... And there are blogs (and opinionaters) all over the web to explain why... Some will even tell you they FORECAST the move... Apparently these are individuals who possess some kind of "SECRET SAUCE" which we all want a dollop of... Right? RIGHT?


We'll get to that later... First I want to to get to the long white candle (from yesterday)... Here's what it looked like...

Actually, it looks to me like there have been a whole bunch of these since the April highs... They're not so uncommon after all... But, I can't say either they happen all that frequently (if you consider the aggregate number of candles)... The records will tell you that they RARELY happen in "bull markets"... More troubling is the fact that despite the fact that PRICES RISE when they appear out of nowhere, the "net sum" of prices has gone down... If you look closely, they seem to disappear altogether as they either reach, or peek over the red and blue lines (which are "moving averages", and other indicators that market TECHNICIANS put to use)... 


But TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is for sissies... How can one determine whether or not any form of technical analysis is valid? Who's the "Validation CZAR" in this country? What CV has found is that there are some around who are the first in line to "criticize" EWI theory, and as a substitute, grandstand around with their own genius ideas about how markets will behave... Here - I'll show you an example... I present to you "Thing 1 & Thing 2"...

Here comes that SECRET SAUCE I was promising, so get your pens & notebooks handy boys & girls...Thing 1 says...

Thing 2 (who operates in a perpetual state of agreement - as long as you're not a bully) says... I agree because that's what I do... When I'm not agreeing, I run around making sure everyone else agrees, and when that doesn't work I mesmerize everyone with cute puppy & kitten pictures until they soften up...

CV says... Hmmm... "ELECTIONS"... (or as an Asian might pronounce it... "E*ECTIONS" - no - we were doing Asian accents on yesterdays thread)... OK, so we've turned the calendar to September... We're in the final sprint to the November elections... So I guess this is the point where the GOVERNMENT MANIPULATORS (who - of course - always have their hand on the wheel and all things are firmly in their capable grasp) can just put the thing into cruise control... Capital Markets? Piece of Cake!...

We're on OTTOPILOT (as Thing 1 & Thing 2 point out), until election day... Otto the pilot will take it from here...


Since we have national elections every 2 years in this country (for now)... I decided to examine just HOW, on "ottopilot", things have been lately on this glide path & final approach...

2008 - Nothing to say but...DOH!

Meh... Must have been an abberation... Let's keep digging

2006 - Now that DUBYA knew how to "control" things... Right?

2004 - Hell yeah! That's what I call an ERECTION!

2002 - Eddie Munster's Hairdo?

2000 - Must have been all that missing WH China

1998 - Was LTCM running for Congress?

1996 - Al Gore "invented" control, right?

1994 - Holy Smokes - The Charlie Brown Shirt Pattern

1992 - It's the ECONOMY Stupid!

1990 - Grunge Never Looked So Good

1986 - "What the...?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41lTZaHMTCw&feature=related

1984 - Only Walter Mondale to beat and that's the best you could do?

1980 - Get Carter

Y'all can do whatever you want... The only thing apparent to me (over the past 30 years since I've been a registered voter), is that if one attempts to attach a GOVERNMENT MANIPULATION theme to CAPITAL MARKETS in the run-up to an election... and sees CORRELATION, or CAUSATION... Well to me, it has about as much correlation as this...

Or they might be smoking this...

Which, I suppose is OK if you're anonymous trader (using practice money)... But I'd think that someone who manages large chunks of OTHER PEOPLES MONEY (and accepts a certain responsibility for doing so)... Comes prepared with some better tools (instead of just coming "AS" a tool because the time period coincides with that of Halloween)...


Or there's always the nifty GLADIATOR outfit as well...

ROCKS