OK so here's a quickie for OPEX Friday... Not much to report except that S&P futures are tanking and perched perilously on support... The SNB is reportedly selling Euros... The Government is lying to you... & there are people on TV who will tell you how to trade all this mess... Here's the quick rundown...

Senior NOAA Scientist Admits He Lied That Gulf Spill Oil Is Gone, Puts Administration's Spill-Disclosure "Credibility" In Question

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/senior-noaa-scientist-admits-he-lied-gulf-spill-oil-gone-puts-administrations-spill-disclosu

Top Oil Expert: Geology is “Fractured”, Relief Wells May Fail and Oil May Leak for Years … BP is Using a “Cloak of Silence”, and Refusing to Share Even Basic Data with the Government

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/top-oil-expert-geology-fractured-relief-wells-may-fail-and-oil-may-leak-years-bp-using-cloak

Treasuries Rise, Stocks Fall on Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-20/asian-stocks-decline-yen-strengthens-on-concern-global-growth-is-slowing.html

Hear that people? Stocks are falling because of "the economy" (so go back to your "Cheerios" - try not to spit them out as you read idiotic headline teasers).. Here's what it looks like on one of those fancy heat maps...

And all this could have been avoided if you didn't go out and buy that STUPID McMansion (on Bush's watch)...

Hey, but look, even if you made a poor decision (cause that bad man had you fooled), you can "double-down" & RE-FINANCE it on Obama's watch... Then take all your clothes off and go down to the beach and help him "kick somebodys ass"...

Brit millionaire offers one million dollar to streak naked in front of Obama

http://www.newkerala.com/news2/fullnews-22853.html

Confused as hell as to how you should trade all of this? Well, the FAST MONEY traders on CNBC got your back on that one (literally - they DO - they have your back squarely in the crosshairs of their high powered rife scope)... Your FIRST TRADE this morning (according to "Kelly"), should be to buy PUTS...

Also from Kelly... Buy TLT right after a meteoric rise...

I don't know about anybody else, but it seems like Kelly is trying to do this to your portfolio...

(Note: If the market REALLY tanks today - Kelly's trade may be a good one - but "FIRST TRADE"? - C'Mon Man)...We'll see how it goes, but if it doesn't work out, people around the FAST MONEY desk might be singing...

But that shouldn't be too hard... They've always been good for a nice SONG & DANCE...

SPX 60 min. 10 weeks

short yellow bus version

TBT

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

219 comments:

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CV said...: Well -

PM "opex" is next week so a little mini "meltdown-a-rino" should be in store early next week...; August 20, 2010 at 3:55 PM
Leftback said...: "There's also the question of what Geithner is issuing. I thought they were emphasizing the 7-year and 10-year notes over the 30-year bonds."

CORRECT. If that's the case, then no flattening of 10s30s. DOH !! They don't really have to buy 30s anyway, b/c there are not that many 30y govies in the world and there is always healthy demand from foreign investors.; August 20, 2010 at 3:57 PM
CV said...: My question is... when do they start offering 50's?; August 20, 2010 at 3:59 PM
AmenRa said...: SPX looks like a hammer. Great. Perfect for a MOmo Monday setup. Arrgghh.; August 20, 2010 at 4:01 PM
CV said...: weekly don't look like no hammer...; August 20, 2010 at 4:01 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

Daily. Long term is measured in days not weeks (not now anyway).; August 20, 2010 at 4:02 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Personally, I think Geithner ought to sell as many 30 year bonds as he can.

But, of course, "long term thinking" for a politician is about four years.; August 20, 2010 at 4:03 PM
CV said...: oh. I forgot (rolls eyes); August 20, 2010 at 4:04 PM
CV said...: @DL

Amen just told you that "long term" thinking is measured in DAYS...

I suppose that applies to politics as well...

get with the program!; August 20, 2010 at 4:05 PM
arbitrage789 said...: And I remember back in August 1981.... I was just starting to follow financial markets....

I remember thinking at the time that it was idiotic to be issuing 30 year bonds at all.; August 20, 2010 at 4:08 PM
Leftback said...: If I had a hammer....

The thing is, I have no EFFING idea what 10s30s will do, and I am actually GOOD at this - bond trading in a QE environment, I mean.

So how can someone who has proven that he is a TOOL, come out with a call on 10s30s..?

MEAN REVERSION sounds great and is a wonderful principle for a normal economy, but QE environments are NOT NORMAL. It's like the Dark Side of the Moon, without sunlight, without the FED we would be effing close to ABSOLUTE ZERO. So you have to follow the pump.; August 20, 2010 at 4:10 PM
Leftback said...: The 30y became the reference for mortgages, to some extent.

This was the basis for my call earlier in the year, b/c if they lost the 30y, then GAME OVER for happy homeowers and RESET ROULETTE would ensue. Of course low rates will just prolong the agony for home prices....; August 20, 2010 at 4:13 PM
arbitrage789 said...: "prolonging the agony".

An art form, for Japanese politicians.; August 20, 2010 at 4:17 PM
CV said...: @LB

We're still in the midst of what will be a pretty large rat going thru the snake when it comes to RE-FI's (as I'm sure you already know)...

The duration was for all of 2010/2011/and into a little bit of 2012...

I'm certainly not going to stand here and make predictions on outcomes, but one thing I do know...

Those RE-FI's we're talking about are basically the 5 year ARMS on mtgs. originated as late as 2007...

After that... We're not talking bout much mtg origination of ANY kind...

Kno what I mean?; August 20, 2010 at 4:20 PM
arbitrage789 said...: “knowwhatimean” or “knowaddameen”

Provides better economy of letters, and space.; August 20, 2010 at 4:26 PM
Leftback said...: The Bond Report 8.20.10

A dull day if you just look at the numbers, but a thriller in the pits, I am sure. We opened with the AXE, Axel Weber, chopping a lump out of the Euro and causing the long bond to seek yet another new low yield, but this finally brought out sellers and the yield reversed up sharply in the afternoon. Spreads TIGHTENED by the end of the day, but HY had hung in well even in the morning.

Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG -0.14%; JNK 0.31%; HYG 0.24%;
Govies: TLT -0.11%; IEI -0.23%; TIP -0.12%

We added to our hedge in the morning, and then we sat. Is this the beginning of a grind higher for HY? Will LB's SPREAD TIGHTENER bring him more fame and fortune, as did the now-legendary 2s30s FLATTENER? Will the exit of MARQUEE NAMES from the TREASURY SHORT space in macro HFs signal that it is now time to ... SHORT TREASURIES? Will LEFTBACK appear on BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE?

Watch this space....; August 20, 2010 at 4:41 PM
karen said...: CV, in one respect TBT has fulfilled the minimum drop of the H&S on the P&F.. down 10 points (or the shoulder height) from the neckline, i.e., 42 down to 32.. dropping the full height of the head targets 25.. just sayin'; August 20, 2010 at 5:05 PM
CV said...: @karen

Sure... But I'm at peace with the 1.618 extension for now...

I'm really just toying with a bounce here (cover the gap), and the position is very small...

10% (gap coverage) and I'm probably out...; August 20, 2010 at 5:16 PM
CV said...: @karen

I'm not as much of a FAST TRADER as many may think (or frankly - I don't know what people think - or even if they do)...

I like these "designs"

- When something like TBT has such a perfect FIBO/symmetrical pattern (over a long time) - I'll bite...

- Same, basically, with the "indices"... I'm not interested in "wavelets"... Though I talk trading, reversals, & flow every day, I hardly act...

Quite frankly - I don't see the market BREAKING DOWN just yet...

I "liked" the 1065 level (as you did) a few weeks ago (and we both expressed that)... Guess what, the market hit 1065 today... Did I act? NO... Why? because I think I like 1050-1054 BETTER now... Will I get it? Who knows?

Here's what I've "missed" in the process...

- I "missed" 1010 (because I wanted to buy sub 1000)

- I "missed" shorting 1100 (because I wanted to see 1103-1107)...

I'll catch a move sooner or later... I'm patient...

Not making a lot of money here... But not LOSING it either :-)...; August 20, 2010 at 5:24 PM

TRADERS ANONYMOUS

Morning Audibles 8.20.10

Senior NOAA Scientist Admits He Lied That Gulf Spill Oil Is Gone, Puts Administration's Spill-Disclosure "Credibility" In Question

Top Oil Expert: Geology is “Fractured”, Relief Wells May Fail and Oil May Leak for Years … BP is Using a “Cloak of Silence”, and Refusing to Share Even Basic Data with the Government

Treasuries Rise, Stocks Fall on Economy

Treasuries Rise, Stocks Fall on Economy

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