TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 8.18.10

Morning Audibles 8.18.10

Many of you have already seen this, but some of you might have missed this interview of Kyle Bass "telling it like it is" on CNBC...

Sorry it took so long to get that up here, but the code was kind of funky working with BLOGGER (as many things are), but I finally cracked it... As is often the case... "The last P well, that's not that simple"...

So if your computer starts sparking up and catching fire and the internet shuts down you have several options (to be done - in order):

1. Call Michael DELL (for customer service)
2. Blame it on Bush
3. Get Obama to "pay for it" (along with your gas & mortgage)
4. Pull Al Gore off the massage table and have him invent another internet
5. Whiz on over to the Hamptons and attend a party
6. Blog about it upon your return

Got that?

287 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 287 of 287 Newer› Newest»

karen said...: Ben @ 3:01, your last sentence explains this then:

"Retailers Remain Among Session's Strongest. As a group they now sport a 2.1% gain. They have been out in front of the broader market all session."; August 18, 2010 at 3:04 PM
CV said...: @McF

For it to "sink in" to j6P that equities are on the ropes we're going to need to see 976

plain and simple...

Why?

Because it's the next link in the daisy chain (from a CNBC reporting perspective), and lord knows that's where they get their news...

976 is a 20% "correction" from 1220...

At that point, the talking heads start saying "we're IN A BEAR MARKET"... You and I know that that is a bunch of baloney (and that we've been in a bear market since 200)... But 61.8% of them still think we're in a recovery bull market...

Once they start piecing together

- Flash Crash
- Death Cross
- Downward revisions to GDP
- High unemployment
- Hindenburg Omens
- and a 20% "bear market" buzz

They'll get with the program...; August 18, 2010 at 3:06 PM
CV said...: @karen (3:04)

Back to School; August 18, 2010 at 3:08 PM
karen said...: The only Back to School item my son is getting is a ONE WAY TICKET!; August 18, 2010 at 3:10 PM
karen said...: this day calls for a vodka watermelon lime martini..; August 18, 2010 at 3:12 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

I think it does, buying bonds was a great idea....a while ago. Johnny could be out in front here for a while, just in time to hold the biggest bag of them all.; August 18, 2010 at 3:13 PM
CV said...: @karen

LOL

Look at the fractals (on 10 minute charts) of the last 3 days...

Then look at the same fractals from the 1088 lows (14 days ago)...

Very similar thus far...; August 18, 2010 at 3:14 PM
McFearless said...: "this day calls for a vodka watermelon lime martini"

hmmm...yeah, I could get into that.; August 18, 2010 at 3:14 PM
karen said...: the icing on the cake! PIMCO

McCulley: The central bank has a profound duty to meld itself with the fiscal authority, until the fat risk of deflation is eliminated; August 18, 2010 at 3:15 PM
CV said...: "just in time to hold the biggest bag of them all."

Well - people were STUPID enough to vote for people who are in the process of creating the largest debt in history...

So they might as well just complete the YAHTZEE OF STUPIDITY and lose their life savings buying all of what will become bad debt...; August 18, 2010 at 3:18 PM
mcHAPPY said...: CV

980 is around the level I'm looking at to end minute 1 then a rally back to 1080 range. The gap at 1120-1116 makes me nervous if we go down sifnicantly here.; August 18, 2010 at 3:18 PM
CV said...: @karen

after that last comment:

McCulley: The central bank has a profound duty to meld itself with the fiscal authority, until the fat risk of deflation is eliminated

Yes, I would concur... Concur that...

"this day calls for a vodka watermelon lime martini"

MAKE MINE A DOUBLE!; August 18, 2010 at 3:19 PM
karen said...: And, to think of the power/money these fellows wield..; August 18, 2010 at 3:21 PM
CV said...: @mcHappy

well that would be PEFECT then...

We get the big 20% CRASH... (won't be 20% at once - but from April we'd be down 20%)...

J6P rushes in and buys the BONDS that the BD's have been bidding up...

IB's take the cash and buy risk assets (equities)... Averages rise back to 1080...

Piece of cake...

Oh & by the way... With the averages back up at 1080... Johnny will see it as "safe" to wade back in... wink wink...; August 18, 2010 at 3:22 PM
AmenRa said...: Is this the week we break 500k in weekly claims? It's getting close.; August 18, 2010 at 3:24 PM
McFearless said...: these PIMCO comments are too much. just too much, and it's like they just keep flowing them out every few minutes the last few days.

CV,

"STUPID enough to vote for people who are in the process of creating the largest debt in history"

same exact limbic system hi-jacking there as happens with markets.

C'mon Brain!; August 18, 2010 at 3:26 PM
homer said...: mmmmmmmmm - vodka watermelon lime martini.
mix proportions, if you please (after the close); August 18, 2010 at 3:27 PM
CV said...: @Amen

They're going to have to UNCAP that oil spill in the gulf to keep people on payrolls...

Oh the conundrums one faces as a Dairy Queen manager on vacation...; August 18, 2010 at 3:27 PM
CV said...: @McF (3:26)

Does Obamacare cover "lobotomies"?, I wonder; August 18, 2010 at 3:29 PM
McFearless said...: regarding the dollar, I'm very uneasy with the EWI count on the dollar because they've got an extended wave in the wave 1 position, even RP admits he's maybe only seen that once or twice before in his entire life.

how probable is this?...AT struggled to find a non-forced five waves in a couple of those moves up, which is a stike agains the idea of an extended wave 1 as far as i'm concerned, the chart is still bullish imo, but much like I've parted with EWI's market count, I prefer a slightly different count on the dollar as well.; August 18, 2010 at 3:30 PM
Geithner said...: "The central bank has a profound duty to meld itself with the fiscal authority"

The Fed is a completely independent agency.
(Suckers); August 18, 2010 at 3:31 PM
McFearless said...: "Does Obamacare cover "lobotomies"?"

probably, it would seem many of his biggest followers have already taken advantage of this procedure, the rest of us have to wait until 2014 though.; August 18, 2010 at 3:33 PM
McFearless said...: two days in a row of puke into the close?

no way "they" would allow that

bwahahahahaha; August 18, 2010 at 3:34 PM
karen said...: i keep my ketel one in the freezer and have been keeping cut up chunks of watermelon with fresh lime in my refrigerator... i simply poured the juice off the watermelon into a glass with the icy vodka and voilà !!; August 18, 2010 at 3:34 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Anyone feeling a BTE jobs report tomorrow? It would certainly appear via the charts.; August 18, 2010 at 3:37 PM
McFearless said...: good thread from Mish:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/why-is-bad-advice-so-common.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29; August 18, 2010 at 3:38 PM
CV said...: @karen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LxC3M-Yngs; August 18, 2010 at 3:38 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

it's a little cheaper but did you ever try Three Olives Vodka?

Last year during holiday I bought a bottle of the root beer so I did root beer vodka mixed with...root beer. this is also when I grew a beard, which had nothing to do with the vodka.

oh, that was fun.; August 18, 2010 at 3:39 PM
McFearless said...: a few weeks ago I busted on Doug Kass for his forward operating p/e justifications, I hadn't realized until I read mish that Hussman had already destroyed that:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070820.htm; August 18, 2010 at 3:41 PM
karen said...: get this and read the single comment so far:

American International Group Inc. is laying the groundwork for its first debt offering in two years, in what could be a crucial measure of whether investors think the bailed-out insurance giant can stand on its own and ultimately repay taxpayer funds.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704557704575437531460138128.html\; August 18, 2010 at 3:42 PM
CV said...: @McF

Here's what happened to me when I tried mixing something with root beer...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znoSaHwbHYg; August 18, 2010 at 3:43 PM
Leftback said...: We haven't exposed Karen's Top, although we might see it tomorrow.
Anyway, LB still has a post about melons:

Tasty Melons; August 18, 2010 at 3:43 PM
karen said...: Ben, never heard of Three Olives Vodka.. I just buy what costco sells : )
but, LOL.. have you already started in on your martini?!; August 18, 2010 at 3:44 PM
Leftback said...: “People just like a sweet, little melon,”

LB can only concur with this sentiment.; August 18, 2010 at 3:44 PM
karen said...: those are my melons!; August 18, 2010 at 3:45 PM
McFearless said...: C,
lol, that was me with my last episode with a bottle of Port.; August 18, 2010 at 3:45 PM
McFearless said...: ha, no I'm still at work, maybe later tonight but I've got a few meetings later on.; August 18, 2010 at 3:47 PM
karen said...: too bad i'm out of vodka.. i have two melons left.. : (
out of tequila, too, if truth be told : (
out of stellas, crying now.. got wine, tho.; August 18, 2010 at 3:48 PM
Leftback said...: Johnny Cougar has gone off his rocker:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digital-living/4038226/John-Mellencamp-Internet-is-like-A-bomb; August 18, 2010 at 3:48 PM
McFearless said...: is that melons link safe at work?; August 18, 2010 at 3:49 PM
Leftback said...: "..i have two melons left.. "

LB is sure they are real and spectacular....; August 18, 2010 at 3:49 PM
Leftback said...: McF,

Quite safe, but don't get juice on the keyboard.; August 18, 2010 at 3:50 PM
McFearless said...: Who's crazier Johnny Cougar, or Prince, who made similar comments recently.; August 18, 2010 at 3:50 PM
karen said...: CV.. i would never try to one up you on youtube!! laughing hysterically.; August 18, 2010 at 3:51 PM
McFearless said...: lot of people I know don't like watermelon, I've always like them a lot.; August 18, 2010 at 3:52 PM
karen said...: Ben, those little melons that LB linked to are the best! costco sells them 2 for the price of one, laughing.. I buy 4 at a time.; August 18, 2010 at 3:54 PM
McFearless said...: "some smart people, the China-Russians or something"

yes, the China-Russians hacked us...

and the internet destroyed the music industry...uh, I think not.; August 18, 2010 at 3:54 PM
CV said...: @LB

I'm 100% SUPPORTIVE of anything (device or whatever) that degrades the sound quality of JCM music...; August 18, 2010 at 3:54 PM
karen said...: oh great.. under 1095 is all i want! oh, that and a big.. um..

i've only had one.. can you imagine me on two?; August 18, 2010 at 3:55 PM
McFearless said...: we had a costco membership but we got rid of it. Only two people in the house. It was really nice for paper towels and stuff like that but we only have one fridge in the house, just not enough room to store 20 chicken breasts, etc.

I could see how other places it'd be worth it for the alcohol, but I live in DE, we have Total Wine here.; August 18, 2010 at 3:55 PM
karen said...: really, i can't believe LB gave that mellencamp article OUR blog space.. saw it earlier and wouldn't even look at it.; August 18, 2010 at 3:56 PM
CV said...: @McF

You can get a 100 pound PROPANE container at COSTCO for $79...

Someday soon, you're gonna need one (or 3)...

Filled with propane, while you're at it...; August 18, 2010 at 3:57 PM
McFearless said...: you know, for someone that is all about "america" and this being "our country" he sounds like his ass is a little chapped that he can't charge top dollar anymore for all his music, he's more than happy to sell out for a 30 second tv commercial that I have to hear over and over and over and over again.

probably also feeling bad about being such a big Obama supporter, maybe if he gets his wish the internet will be taken away.; August 18, 2010 at 3:58 PM
karen said...: Ben.. I'm a household of one with interlopers (my word of the week).. costco still works for me.. their organic carrot juice is a staple as well.; August 18, 2010 at 3:58 PM
Leftback said...: You guys don't like MELONCAMP?; August 18, 2010 at 3:59 PM
McFearless said...: I'm glad he did, I always though JCM was a douche, now I know he is.

i'm just going to come out with this as well since we are about to close, I'm just not a huge Rolling Stones fan, I've never been able to just sit around and listen to the Stones.; August 18, 2010 at 3:59 PM
72bat said...: moon and stars a favorite melon around here

karen - this wine?
Tarima Monastrell Jumilla 2008? "Grade = Outstanding. Silky and sexy with juicy, jammy black and blue fruit, lots of spicy characters, and a plush finish."
been tippling this recently myself; August 18, 2010 at 3:59 PM
Leftback said...: ....under 1095 is all i want! oh, that and a big.. um..

Rooster? Sounds like you've come to the right place, Karen.; August 18, 2010 at 4:00 PM
McFearless said...: my wife bought some organic drink a few weeks back at the store, looked like green sludge, was a bunch of fruit and veggies mashed into a drink, tasted awesome.; August 18, 2010 at 4:01 PM
McFearless said...: @72,

going to Ohio 9/2, Catawba, you know where that is?; August 18, 2010 at 4:01 PM
CV said...: @karen

There's this kind of juice that a girl in my class gave me a bottle of that's made from ALOE VERA concoction...

I kind of liked it...

I forget the name, but I have a bottle of it at the gym and after I go tonight, I'll let you know...

I don't even know who distributes it though...; August 18, 2010 at 4:05 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: CV:

You know I enjoyed your post this morning, but I grew up in the country. Where I grew up:

"So if your computer starts sparking up and catching fire and the internet shuts down you have several options (to be done - in order):

5. Whiz on"......

...Would probably have been number one at my house....; August 18, 2010 at 4:05 PM
karen said...: that's it.. LOVE it.. also, Costco is selling Volver.. another tempranillo that is good but in the $12 range.. that Tarima can be bot for $7 inc. tax!! shocking.. but wine is cheap as the dirt and the labor in spain.. the grapes grow unfettered in that climate..; August 18, 2010 at 4:06 PM
CV said...: OK... gotta go...

latas allagatas; August 18, 2010 at 4:06 PM
McFearless said...: hey karen,

this is one of the wineries in my hometown, my buddy Mario is taking this one over from his Dad:

http://www.mazzawines.com/

it's not cali wine, but they have some pretty good stuff, you should give it a try. This is my favorite one back home, but there are a bunch of others.

I've been sitting on a bottle of their ice wine for a few years, want to wait for the right moment to drink it:

http://media.pennsylvaniawine.com/ViewNewsItem.aspx?articleid=71; August 18, 2010 at 4:06 PM
karen said...: I have 21 new twitters.. and I only follow 31. that Kyle Bass interview has gone viral : ); August 18, 2010 at 4:07 PM
karen said...: General Motors files for IPO; amount and date of offering yet to be determined
08/18/2010 04:05:26 PM; August 18, 2010 at 4:08 PM
CV said...: @Bruce

Or... you could just change the order...

Then, you'd have...

Whiz on...

DELL
BUSH
OBAMA
GORE
BLOGS

Expediency is my middle name; August 18, 2010 at 4:08 PM
72bat said...: ben -
catawba just about 30 minutes away. damn! i'd invite you over for dinner but on 9/2 i will be winging my way to the arizona biltmore in phoenix for a family wedding that weekend. shite!; August 18, 2010 at 4:11 PM
karen said...: this is truly the PIMCO pièce de résistance, I beg you to sit down first:

Gross: If 5%, 6%, & 7% mortgages are refi’ed to 4%, it provides stimulus of $50bn-$60bn in consumption, & potentially lifts housing prices.; August 18, 2010 at 4:12 PM
McFearless said...: no kidding, I'll be in your backyard almost. i'm going to a pig roast there and then a wedding that weekend. small world.; August 18, 2010 at 4:13 PM
McFearless said...: well wait just a minute on that Gross statement right there, wouldn't that be a contradiction to those claiming that there has been no material impact on spending due to the millions of homeowners that just don't pay their mortgages and are therefore using that cash to consume somewhere else?

Wonder if BR will have anything to say about that comment.; August 18, 2010 at 4:15 PM
Leftback said...: "..If 5%, 6%, & 7% mortgages are refi’ed to 4%.."

Karen, If that happened, then there would be a lot of Tsy buying to hedge early pay-off risk. That is probably the proximal cause of what we saw last week and this, with the whole parabolic move being amplified by short covering, likely due to the MS 2s10s steepener unwind, which in turn caused the 10s30s flattener to unwind at the same time.

What fun.; August 18, 2010 at 4:18 PM
McFearless said...: is there a database somewhere that you can see how many mortgages are carried at each rate?

What I'm getting at is, how many mortgages are actually at 7%? Really for many years now you could have refi'd or purchased at almost any time and should have been able to lock in a rate way below that.; August 18, 2010 at 4:21 PM
72bat said...: ben -
leaving thursday afternoon and not back 'til monday evening.
unlikely, but should you be free on friday evening 9/3, i have a suggestion for dynamite live music as well as fine dining you would not believe to be found in the cornfields of sw ohio (karen can testify to my dining predilection); August 18, 2010 at 4:21 PM
72bat said...: karen -
ditto "Volver.. in the $12 range.. Tarima cfor $7 inc. tax!!" except ohio has state license stores so minimum pricing applies, tarima ~$9 as i recall, still... loving the vino; August 18, 2010 at 4:28 PM
McFearless said...: not sure of our plans Friday night yet, I'll shoot you an e-mail if we are going to be open, always up for some live music.; August 18, 2010 at 4:31 PM
Leftback said...: LB has more good inexpensive (and expensive) wine at his disposal than he can possibly drink.

Perhaps Karen could help to deplete my stores of liquidity...?; August 18, 2010 at 4:32 PM
karen said...: gotta run.. thanks for the fun..see you all later!; August 18, 2010 at 4:35 PM
Leftback said...: The problem with mortgages isn't interest rates.

It's the fact that Chuck and Connie Contractor bought a $350,000 house for $750,000 and took out a HELOC for Chuck's Harley a few years back, and now Chuck doesn't have much use for his nail gun skills, and Connie was laid off from her sub-prime origination job, so they have a pile of debt, declining income and an asset that is underwater.; August 18, 2010 at 4:36 PM
karen said...: ps.. apparently futures are droopy : ); August 18, 2010 at 4:36 PM
McFearless said...: RRE is still f'd

nuff said.; August 18, 2010 at 4:37 PM
McFearless said...: I think we are headed to Put In Bay at some point as well. I've been once before, that place is a blast.; August 18, 2010 at 4:40 PM
Leftback said...: The Bond Report 8.18.10

Today wasn't very interesting. The curve flattened slightly. Spreads were slightly narrower at the short end and slightly wider at the long end. POMO tomorrow.

Corpies: LQD 0.09%; AGG -0.11%; JNK 0.05%; HYG 0.17%;
Govies: TLT 0.27%; IEI -0.09%; TIP -0.06%

We did nothing. It was what we refer to technically as a shit trading day.; August 18, 2010 at 4:43 PM
Leftback said...: "ps.. apparently futures are droopy : )"

The Dong has been softening as well, Karen.
Perhaps your melons need to be paired with a new ingredient.; August 18, 2010 at 4:45 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Holy Clambake, Batman, even Todd Harrison is going Galt on us!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/seeking-trading-solutions-in-an-uncertain-world-2010-08-18

"Sun Tzu once said, "If your enemy is superior, evade him. If angry, irritate him. If equally matched, fight and if not, split and reevaluate." As we navigate this socioeconomic maelstrom, an increasing number of people are weighing their options -- and some of the smarter folks I know are "going dark."

What does that mean? They're selling businesses, unwinding trading operations or otherwise distancing themselves from the capital markets. The thematic reasoning is straight out of an Ayn Rand novel: "I can't compete and when I do, the rules of engagement change in the middle of the game. I'll let the powers that be vanquish themselves and return in three to five years to sift through the remains."; August 18, 2010 at 4:57 PM
Leftback said...: Bruce,

When failure is rewarded, why strive for success and be punished for trying? It makes sense to just unplug from the Matrix until the rule of the machines is eventually ended.

Until the present tax and regulatory structure is radically revised and the big banks are broken up and wound down, those Americans of an entrepreneurial nature will have to bide their time. Only when there is dinosaur blood in the streets will they return.

The big banks must cease to exist.; August 18, 2010 at 5:21 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Audibles 8.18.10

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