It's easy to grin
When your ship has come in
And you have the stock market beat
But the man worthwhile
Is the man who can smile
When his shorts are too tight in the seat
Judge Smails
Just a simple chart here as the bulls still seem to be in charge here trying desperately to make Doug Kass & Abbey Joseph Cohen like geniuses.
Even a bear would have to acknowledge that despite 5 straight green candles, equities probably still have a little more room to wander on the upside...
Based on the "look" of the chart, CV is looking at several different levels.
- The candles have pierced their upper bollingers (which isn't really a MAJOR indicator, but put it on the checklist).
- DAILY candles aren't showing any negative divergence yet, but the shorter timeframes (like 5 and 10 minutes are).
- Since the flash crash, a lot of work has been done in a PRICE CHANNEL (indicated by the blue lines). I left out the "tails" of some of those candles, or cases where the CLOSING LEVEL fell back into the channel promptly.
- Could we do some activity in creating an UPPER price channel? That would bring some of Andy's ideas of 1150 level into play if it happens
- Overhead resistance MAY be provided by the 200MA &/or the 50MA
- From an "18's" perspective, probably 1098 would be a likely target
- Some higher FIBS have yet to be tested (either vs. 1131, or, vs. 1220)
- What's interesting to CV is that that "piercing" candle (at 1131) occurred on the opex Friday (for June)... Could we be setting up for a replay scenario?
- We've now had two closes ABOVE the wicked June 29th candle... Another close above that level (today), ought to give some bulls some confidence.
$COMP is probably, silently, making its DARK CROSS today (which is unlikely to be heralded because Intel reports (with Google to follow on Thursday)...
All in all, another "ho-hum" day...
Judge Smails:
"Good, good. You know, despite what happened, I'm still convinced that you have many fine qualities. I think you can still become a gentleman someday if you understand and abide by the rules of decent society. There's a lot of...well, badness in the world today. I see it in court every day. I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. I didn't want to do it- I felt I owed it to them. The most important decision you can make right now is what you stand for... goodness... or badness."
317 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 317 of 317 Newer› Newest»June budget deficit $68 billion, Treasury says
2:00 PM ET 7/13/10 | Marketwatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $68 billion in June, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday, and said that the deficit was a little more than $1 trillion for the first nine months of fiscal year 2010. Income was $251 billion in June, the Treasury said, about $36 billion higher than receipts in June 2009. Spending was $319 billion in June, versus $309 billion a year ago. The monthly deficit is the 21st consecutive budget shortfall but is well below the year-ago figure of $94 billion.
@Nic
Slogan... Yeah, something like that...
Or... "real time commentary on who is stealing from you at the moment"
What I want to know about the official deficit numbers is, how much Enron-style, off-budget accounting is there?
@DL
Just add a few zeroes and it ought to put you in the ballpark...
Bagged two nice shorts, going for the long side now...
Karen,
I was certainly happy to unload my Ts recently at 3.95% or so on the long bond. But of course CV is right, we will see much lower yields (see JGBs) as US investment turns inward and gets all patriotic.
Keiretsu ichiban !
The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $68 billion in June
The monthly deficit is the 21st consecutive budget shortfall but is well below the year-ago figure of $94 billion.
The rationale here is that if you drive your car into a BRICK WALL at 68 mph you're WAAAAY better off than if you drive it into the same wall going 94...
Budget deficit was a part of weaker dollar and 10y auction story today.
Look for a mini reversal around midday tomorrow.
Nic has been all over a USDJPY trade.
Back towards the close.
I'm getting very close to taking a shot at some long calls on UUP again.
@LB
I frankly don't think these politicians even care about deficits...
At this point, I literally think they're eyeing all the balances sitting around in 401k's, trying to tabulate that total, and when they have to, they'll just scoop it all up for themselves... (you know - for the good of the COUNTRY)...
karen,
was that a quarterly bill?
I see a lot of budgets, you might have a leak...that's really high.
McF @ 2:16
Those guys in Southern Cal are draining the Colorado River.
Make 'em pay.
@McF
Naw... no leak...
That was just karen running the water so she could go running naked through the sprinklers...
funny how i can lose thousands on a stock position and not get as sick as i am over this water bill..
@karen
If you're using that much water just on a lawn, you ought to rip out the grass and put in some kind of bermuda that requires little water...
Many golf courses have switched to that type of scenario to cut down on water costs...
Karen @ 2:21
Yeah, funny how that works.
Scratch that... back to shorts...
1min macro.
cacti
ripped out back lawn and put in olive grove.. would like to do the same in front but that's a $50K project.. makes the water bill look rather dinky... i might do it if i didn't need to jump through HOA hoops..
@karen
If your olive trees are producing olives, just grow some new trees from seed, silly...
Do you want CV to come out and be your gardener?
i know.. i'm going to get some comparisons from my neighbors. that way i'll know for sure if i just need to do a leak search.. however, i have a sump system and it hasn't been pumping into the street.
was there a topstep vid today, or just the sonar report?
Dow 11,500 by September
there was a top step as well, 1098.5 I think they said as next resistance
"Dow 11,500 by September"
Of what year?
I-Man.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hskGK65nYLs
nic posted wrong link : )
Oh Soz ...
I am having brain fog issues
gratsi, gratsi
A voice cries from the wilderness... in a tongue only one can hear...
It says, "sell them, lloyd."
So, the playbook for today and tomorrow - a squeeze into the close - more COLD STEEL. INTC reports, CRAMER pumps TECH and then JOHNNY wants some b/c JOHNNY loves tech.
ASIA follows and the Aussies and Mrs Watanabe sell some yen and buy some kiwis. We open up, take a good look at the KT, and then meander until about noon into the 30y auction, then we have a reversie.
The only doctor I <3 at the moment:
http://www.cboe.com/tradtool/webcast.aspx
Alright, LB...
Putting your analysis to work right here, right now.
I just added a little bit more short.
Seems a lot of this late afternoon jazz is AAPL coming back from being down 4% earlier...
I meant, BUY em lloyd...
You guys might like this -- interesting fib numbers applied to the number of days post start of downturn...
http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/
-Jennifer
Tweet from MrTopStep:
buy stops above 1096 and again above 1098 to 1102
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/07/bipolar-market-in-one-chart.html
Hmmm...sorry if this double posts. My post vanished into the ether. ANyway, I thought you might like this. Applies fib numbers to the number of days out from start of downturn.
http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/
-Jennifer
Jennifer
I like tomorrow as a turnaround day. But I also think we may drift listlessly all summer, like 2008.
Great find on the alphahorn blog, thanks!
Still waiting for my 1107 mid number to hit, then reverse trend, even if it only for a few hours, or, maybe days
18
MrTopStep again:
despite the ESU trading 1094.25 the locals in the pit did not buy into that offer, only 100 traded , Smith Barney just sold 500 down to 1093
I wouldn't remind a repeat of summer 08 in the least:
May 1, 2008: 1413.90
August 25, 2008: 1282.83
I'll sit on my Sep and Dec puts and do a whole lot of nothing.
18,
yeah, I thought about that level, but since I don't day-trade felt I had a good set up at 1095-1097. I can bleed for a bit.
Pain don't hurt
Roadhouse
not sure i understand this but from ZH:
Welcome to reverse distribution. The Bid-Offer stack in the ES is telegraphing the intentions of market participants who can't wait to offload positions, yet are doing so in a way that is pushing the market higher: any bid-side interest is occurring via market trades lifting the ES price courtesy of a massive ask-side inventory which however is locked into limit positions and refuses to go VWAP or market. Yes - sellers outnumber buyers two to one, but unlike panicked shorts who are urgently covering exposed positions, are willing to wait to get their desired price. And with every lift, the NBBO ratchets up one notch higher, creating a feedback loop. The more ask side interest, the faster the market rips, even as the imbalanced market with much greater sell-side interest clears progressively higher! Nothing like selling causing rising prices in this latest installment of the bizarro market.
that 1107 is interesting because there is that gap at 1106 from 6/22
"creating a feedback loop"
oh what a bunch of rubbish
if that actually happened how does the loop ever end....this kind of idea never holds any weight..sorry, rant off.
After two big squeeze days into a technical roadblock (the KT), LB is going to take off some of the risk position that was entered at around 1040.
Not doing anything very bearish, just getting balanced. The sentiment extremes that launched the swing trade have now passed. It's time for JOHNNY to take on those longs.
excellent trading leftback
Owe you a beer, LB.
This chart from that alphahorn blog is very good imo...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_-p17nqJfPI8/TDyfaCEtEpI/AAAAAAAAB-0/yVmO12w9Xg8/s1600/tnx.png
So, thx, also, Jennifer.
Karen, that 3:21 is a great explanation of exactly what I've been seeing in this runup.
ZH apparently expects the market to go down every day.
And then proceeds to throw a tantrum when it doesn't.
@jennifer
3:11 link
that 5 down is a bit tough to swallow on TNX imo.
2 and 4 look an awful lot alike don't you think?
and the 3rd wave looks a lot more like an ABC, 3 distinct waves.
the main thing though is how short 3 is, it leaves no room for error with the count on that fifth wave, 3 can't be the shortest.
VIX is pretty darn close to where it was on 6/21/10.
all that said, loved the overlap with the SPX
dear lord, 4 straight meetings I've been asked:
"Is BP something we should get into"
just got another phone call asking the same
ufb folks.
Sold some equities, bought some Ts. Nothing big.
Still holding some modest risk-on positions in credit for now.
Don't think that the DXY or TLT are done falling yet.
Once they bottom out, then it's all back into Ts, Manny.
I-Man, LB will take a pint of IPA at the close.
Thanks to Nic for some timely advice and fine charts!
McF @ 3:38
"Dead money" at best.
If we hit 10349 in a minute, I'll make it two pints.
:)
Is that Karen dancing naked in the sprinklers?
We can almost see her Top again.
LB,
Explains the water bill.
I hate to be the delivery boy of bad news for bears but ii of 3 is so completely dead now, just forget about it.
There is no way in a ii of 3, among all the other things mentioned, that RSI would be staying where it is.
sorry, it is what it is.
Here comes the KT.
Sorry if this ends up as a double post.
Ben. To your question on the CMT. I just wrote level 1. You and Nic could pass level 1 with minimal studying. Probably no studying, other than the half page code of conduct. Next test is Oct, then next spring. So you could probably do Neely and CMT 1 before having to get to work on CMT 2. Some questions on CMT 1 are things like "What is the definition of an uptrend? A: Succession of higher highs and higher lows." Pretty basic stuff. I wanted to do it to get my mind working on other things and refreshing on concepts I hadn't thought about in a while. Hope this helps. Can't comment on level 2 yet, but the reading requirements more than double from level 1.
I've been a long time follower of the group back to the early TBP days. I always appreciate the idea flow here.
Ryan
Look at how fast we get outta dodge when the music stops...
Geez... dont everyone bail at once, now.
Someone took advantage of the opportunity to unload on the fool... check the volume on the YM 3:54 candle...
Ryan,
Thanks very much for that man. I'm likely to go for it. Why not. Sounds like the testing works like the CFA sort of.
CFA level one is simple, 2 and 3....uh, not so much.
"I always appreciate the idea flow here".
I like to think of it more as a symphony of idea flows.
Just when you think you're going to see the KT.....
.... Mr Market covers it up once again ....
Cue the Intel Earnings Panto....
look out, the order books are BEHIND YOU.
"I like to think of it more as a symphony of idea flows."
Elegant. CV as conductor, I-Man on percussion, McF on the bassoon, Nic on oboe, and Karen on flute.
Or a cacophony of ideas and the occasional pig grunt from LB.
Mr. Market is definitely a tease.
@Ryan
Some questions on CMT 1 are things like "What is the definition of an uptrend? A: Succession of higher highs and higher lows."
Wait... You mean the answer to that isn't...
"HFT aglos running massive ask-side inventory which is locked into limit positions and refuses to go VWAP or market."
Sorry - couldn't resist the ZH take on things :-)
well, that was some close eh?
what a crazy week already, I might shut that short down right away tomorrow.
no sleep for me tonight!
Wow thanks Ryan
I am going to look into it some more :)
I think I am pretty sure going to go for it too.
I-Man,
One pint or two? I am in all seriousness off to the pub !
bassoon....yes!
of course...that has the word ass in it
@LB (4:04)
When it all comes out in harmony, it sounds like 90 minutes (plus stoppage time) of a stadium of people blowing on vuvuzelas... :-)
go for two I
I have to go to a mtg at 5:30 but I'll be doing some vodka after that...I'm sweating right now.
I'm pretty sure prechter has the CMT.
it's a good thing to have, the longer this bear lasts the more popular TA is going to get, it'll allow for more opportunities for us if we go for it.
if not, well whats the harm in making your skills better?
Answer is that there isn't any.
Blow me
I may have anger issues, BITCHEZ.
Its two for you LB, put it on my tab...
Was short when you said that, and just at breakeven so I flipped- wasnt expecting that little mini squeeze- was expecting the last 15 minutes.
So thx for the hookup.
intel numbers out.. new def for BTE BETTER THAN EVER
Intel Reports Best Quarter Ever
4:15 PM ET 7/13/10 | BusinessWire
--Gross Margin 67 percent
--Operating Income $4.0 billion
--Net Income $2.9 billion
--EPS 51 cents
Intel Corporation today reported second-quarter revenue of $10.8 billion, up 34 percent year-over-year. The company reported operating income of $4.0 billion, net income of $2.9 billion and EPS of 51 cents.
"Strong demand from corporate customers for our most advanced microprocessors helped Intel achieve the best quarter in the company's 42-year history," said Paul Otellini, Intel president and CEO. "Our process technology lead plus compelling architectural designs increasingly differentiate Intel-based products in the marketplace. The PC and server segments are healthy and the demand for leading-edge technology will continue to increase for the foreseeable future."
intc after hours trades halted
Wish I could put a few back I-self, but doing a little break from the alcohol.
now given the close we just had and those intc figures all I can think of is
markets don't top on bad news
9:30 am Wed can't get here fast enough imo.
some tunes for the the after hours:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsGIDFTURaY
"WASHINGTON — A Yemeni man held at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay for eight years has been sent home after a judge concluded he had no connection to al Qaeda and ordered his release, the Pentagon said on Tuesday." http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38229771
If he wasn't a terrorist before, he'll likely become one now. I can't believe Guantanamo is still a US possession.
It's going to be a JOHNNY HOUR to remember.
The KT is likely to be revealed in all its glory.
The afternoon may be another story.
YUM
OTOH is getting hammered after hours... (even tho it raised guidance)
This is deja vu, like last summer. Each earnings result a knife in a bears heart.
Karen, I am sure he will open a branch of McDonald's in Aden.
apparently still halted as i can't see any AH trading yet..
OK.
LB is MISTER THIRSTY. Stay thirsty, my friends.
See you all bright and early for the latest installment tomorrow!
YM gapped from 10290 to 10332 on the reopen just now... not too drastic.
I guess the "fool" wasnt that foolish tho, so I-Man is sorry, "fool". (You should probably sell, tho.)
:)
Nic, laughing, i don't even have the heart for a drink !!
Karen, you are still BTE.
LB-
I do have 3 of these in my fridge I wish I could give you tho, they're a hell of a temptation!
http://www.widmer.com/beer_deadlift.aspx
There it goes.. a nice point + pop.. up 5.66%.. oops or was.. no short squeeze that's for sure.
Distribution, huh Karen?
I-Man.. well, distribution unless we are joining the bull camp : )
Uptrends and Downtrends...
Strikes and Gutters...
Been playing with the uptrends for awhile, its about time to play downtrend again.
The whole 10400 - 10500 range on YM is full of resistance. I wouldnt be surprised to see it trade up there, but it will be choppy as all hell and distribution on the way up, if that makes sense.
If you think about the mechanics and psychology behind that ZH link, it makes total sense when you look at the charts.
You see it in order flow as well. Its all cat and mouse.
Retail sales... 8:30AM
One push in to the open and trap door.
Glad you liked Alphahorn. I had to miss the close today -- took sick cat to vet. Serge at ETF corner had an interesting post on what happened to FXI after it got the "death cross." If that plays out in SPX it will be horrible for the bears, but I get that the 50 might need to revisit the 200 for a while. http://etfstocks.typepad.com/
Thanks for making me feel welcome :-)
-Jennifer
Just looking quickly at INTC, they had actual REVENUE growth. Back over 2008 levels.
and Jennifer, thanks for all the great new links! wish you had spoken up sooner !!
Here's a good piece that throws a fresh perspective into the inflation/money supply/deflation debate:
http://www.singularity2050.com/2010/07/the-technosponge.html
Could also help to explain some of INTC?
Just some of the shenanigans that CME was onto in 2005... doesnt seem like much has changed... only now its worse!
“Flipping” or “spoofing”
􀂄 Occurred on Eurex in early 2004
􀂄 Trader entered large-size offer below current best
offer
􀂄 That offer attracted smaller offers from others
􀂄 Trader then canceled large offer, reversed to bid
side, hit offers he attracted, and profited as market
moved higher
􀂄 Some traders argued practice caused a disorderly
market
Taking improper advantage of
allocation algorithm
􀂄 Firm knows spread algorithm uses price and
quantity priority but not time priority
􀂋 Result: large orders at best price get larger share of fills
􀂄 Firm received several customer spread orders
􀂄 Firm entered unusually large proprietary spread
orders on opposite side of market before entering
customer’s orders
􀂄 Effect: lock out other sellers at same price, so that
firm could trade against its customer’s orders
􀂄 Firm then cancelled remainder of its orders
(Slides 18-19)
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@aboutcftc/documents/file/tac_101304_cftcppt.pdf
Thanks Jen for that chart. I regulary checkup on serge's site, somehow I missed it. we got more meltup coming tomorrow.
LB and Nic nailed it for last 9days. Good trades. I just started shorting early. half of my powder dry. wait untill 1130-1150.
DP
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