AmenRa's Corner

Creditcane™: I work(ed) at MF Global...

SPX
Bearish long day (evening star confirmed). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Failing the 38.2% retrace (1241.13). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1285.09). QE2infinity. Back below monthly 3LB mid.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% retrace (77.27). Tested and held SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 74.88). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Held its 38.2% retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). Ran back into the hands of the "fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace (1714.40). Failing SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1757.30). Still above daily 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (1.3847). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.4201).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (38.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.74).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (21.37). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 23.95).



WTI
Bearish short day (confirming second hanging man). Held above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (92.96). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 88.53). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Bearish short day (evening star confirmed). Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (35.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (38.43). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.51).



HYG/LQD
Bearish short day (after huge gap lower). Now failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (0.7592). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 0.7966).



USDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (78.074). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.70). Let's see how long this lasts.



TLT
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (118.79). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 110.24).

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Morning Corner 11.1.11

FTMIB (weekly info)
new high 16653.55
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 16653.55
rev= 13664.91; mid= 15159.23

Odd that Italy's stock market would make a new high last week (but that could be due to the EU "solution"). Considering their 10yr is now greater than 6.00% shouldn't traders be heading for the exits? It's holding above SMA(21). It hasn't made it back to the 38.2% minor retrace.



IBEX (weekly info)
new high 9224.40
trend=up
high= 9224.40
rev= 8141.90; mid= 8683.15


Spain's stock market is acting like everything is fine. Yeah right. IT's trying to hold SMA(21) and the monthly 3LB mid. It's above the minor retraces but hasn't made it to any of the main retraces. The weekly MACD (9,15,7) has turned lower.

World Indice Update:

AmenRa's Corner

Creditcane™: Trick or treat dammit.

SPX
Bearish long day (evening star completed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (1286.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1238.25). QE2infinity. Back below daily 3LB mid.



DXY
Bullish long day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (75.83). Tested and held SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.62). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(144). Held its 61.8% retrace (26.16). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). Still running from the "fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish short day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace (1714.40). Tested and failed SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1757.30). Still above daily 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (1.3903). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3779).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(144). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (38.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.74).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Failing SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (22.11). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.28).



WTI
Hanging man day (which confirmed hanging man). Held above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (92.96). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 88.53). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Bearish long day (evening star completed). Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (35.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).



BKX
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (41.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.51).



HYG/LQD
Spinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7730).



USDJPY
Bullish long day (m&*&f*&* intervention). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (77.785). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 75.70). BOJ & MoF finally showed up.



COPPER
Bearish long day (evening star completed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (3.673). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.449).



EEM
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now failing SMA(89). Now failing its 50.0% retrace (41.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.16).

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Week Ahead Post: S&P 500

Happy Halloween All,

Just a few concepts to consider. I've had to include an "alternative" count in case the S&P500 keeps chugging. I'm surprised by how strong the action was on Thursday to the "Greek Debt" deal. Who thinks the Greeks are going to honor even 50%?

Oh Well....

On a related note, please see MF Global for an example of "reaching for yield" to juice the bottom line.  Jon Corzine, in a "shocking" development, dusts the company on essentially one bad trade.  Guess those Spanish and Italian bonds were a little riskier than we thought....

Market Commentary 30OCT11

Addendum:

The History of Halloween

AmenRa's Corner

Creditcane™: I will not be broken. I have been trained by the best.

SPX
Spinning top day (evening star forming?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(144). Tested and failed the 61.8% minor retrace (1286.32). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1238.25). QE2infinity. Had a weekly reversal up.



DXY
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (74.94). Failing SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.62). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Failing its 61.8% retrace (26.16). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 48.00). Still running from the "fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace (1714.40). Tested and held SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1757.30). Still above daily 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Held above its 50.0% retrace (1.4056). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3779).



JNK
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.74).



10YR YIELD
Bearish harami day. Tested and failed SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (22.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.28).



WTI
Hanging man day. Held above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (92.96). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 88.53). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Doji day (evening star forming?). Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and matched its 61.8% retrace (35.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).



BKX
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held above SMA(89). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (41.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.51).



HYG/LQD
Bearish short day. Failing SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 50.0% retrace (0.7942). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7730).



USDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (75.805). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.05). BOJ losing sleep again.

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.