Morning Audibles 7.29.10 - Within & Without

OK so I "apologize" in advance for CV's constant harping about this stupid EXPANDING WEDGE...


Notwithstanding... SURVIVOR CAPITAL is... FROM TIME TO TIME... when it's not a JUKEBOX... supposed to be a blog that expends more electrons discussing trading strategies instead of trying to colloquialize campfire messages while singing KUMBAYA and eating smores... 


Last time I checked, the "kumbaya/smores" behavior was the prime directive of a girl scout troop (CV admits to liking their cookies though)...


Back to the aforementioned WEDGE... OK... I'm going to sport a few images of it... WITHIN & WITHOUT... But first, a little musical accompaniment...

WITHIN YOU WITHOUT YOU

WITH OR WITHOUT YOU

As for the CHARTS... Here's the WITHIN... Y'all saw some of this yesterday...

This is CV's "incessant & idiotic" harping about the WEDGE from 1065 (flash crash low)...

A somewhat wider view (with future extension hypothesis)...

Now HERE is where CV's EXPANDING WEDGE starts to look ridiculous... But hold tight...What would happen if one drew those diagonals all the way back to the FEB '10 lows)?... And why?... The HAMMER candle on 2/5/10, closed at 1066... Nit-pickers... TAKE YOUR SHOT RIGHT HERE... 

Eh CV... Who cares about FEB '10? Let's extend those (1065) diagonals all the way back to '07... So that we can REALLY PROVE what a clown you are...

I know... You're a SERIOUS money manager... Give me something USEFUL for crying out loud... I WANT DOW THEORY dammit!... I'll stand for NOTHING LESS... Show me the $TRAN... Now!... CONFIRMATION BITCHEZ!

Well that doesn't tell me anything... I need a LONGER term view... Screw the WITHIN... Show me the WITHOUT! (Note: selected LEVELS of $TRAN in this chart were congruent with the dates of 1065 levels... Granted, it seems a little "messier", but not if you APPLY the $TRAN levels to RSI)

Good luck with your trades... NOW & FOREVER... Bitchez :-)

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane: Don't watch me. Watch FX instead. There you will find my essence.

SPX
Spinning top day. Still holding above 1110. Well above the SMA(21) and above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1110.88). Holding the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1064.88). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed to get above the SMA(144). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Below the 61.8% retrace and tested the 50% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.56).



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam. Arrghh!" Still below the SMA(89) and SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.95).



GOLD
Bearish long day. Below the SMA(21), the SMA(89). Tested but held the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". Closed below 14.6% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1195.10).



EURUSD
Doji day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Back above the SMA(89). Tested and held 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2943).



JNK
Bearish short day (too much "hair" for hanging man). Tested and failed the 76.4% retrace (by .01 but hey it still failed). Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed the falling window from 5/4/10-5/5/10. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 36.43).



GS
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(89). Still below 147.91 (fib .236) again. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 140.25).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Tested and failed the 14.6% retrace (by 1 bps). Running away from the 0.0% retrace at 28.83. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).



SLV
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the SMA(21), SMA(89) and now the SMA(144). Closed at the 61.8% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.12).

Morning Audibles - Stocks are going to Pluto!

Well... Since EVERYONE agrees that stocks are going to Pluto (and, after all, when is a consensus ever WRONG)?...


We might as well take a look at Pluto and see what it's all about, and what it's up to these days...

Hey look... LIAM NEESON is there heaving Breakfast On Pluto... LIAM, Why don't you get with the program, back away from the cornflakes, and RELEASE THE DAMN KRACKEN!...

No doubt that Pluto is wild and crazy place... OK... Enough COMEDY JOKES!... Hell, I thought that recently astronomers were talking about how Pluto wasn't even an official planet anymore... It's too small or something... And if that's the case, why should it figure in astrology? It wasn't even discovered until 1930 (probably an insignificant year stock-wise)... So how can ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY prior to 1930 have any application to Pluto? Of was the "telling" of history retrofitted to the discovery of Pluto?

Anyway - This is how PLUTO is supposed to matter (size notwithstanding)...

http://www.evolvingdoor.ca/miscarticles/what_is_the_cardinal_cross.htm

Pluto is the agent of transformation and rebirth. It is connected to death and it can sometimes lead us to encounter and deal with death in the world. However, physical death is just one of the many layers of meaning in Pluto. It is about endings that reach so deep they spawn a regeneration process. Transformation is the transition of change between the old and the new; between death and rebirth. Pluto's endings are a necessary end to what was, in order to release energy which then fuels the transformation process and then facilitates the rebirth into a new form.

http://www.mountainastrologer.com/planet_tracks/pt_archive/nept_pluto/nept_pluto.html

* July 30-31, 2010: This marks another intense few days. Mars joins Saturn at 0° 49' Libra, opposing the Moon, Jupiter, and Uranus in Aries and squared by Pluto. Again, large masses of people may be affected by so much planetary energy concentrated near the cardinal points. Since cardinal signs are action-related, there may be a lot of people on the move (demonstrators, troops, refugees). The Mars-Saturn conjunction is on the Midheaven in Indonesia, China, and the South China Sea, creating conditions for a crisis in that area.

* August 6-7, 2010: A cardinal grand cross is formed, involving Jupiter-Uranus in Aries, Pluto in Capricorn, the Moon in early Cancer, and Venus joining Mars and Saturn in early Libra. The Sun at 15° Leo makes stressful aspects (45°/135°) to the entire grand cross. We'll need to remain calm and balanced to deal with the relentlessly stressful aspects this summer. The electricity grid may be threatened; unusual Earth or weather changes could be part of the picture.

Since CV sucks at stocks charts, I decided to re-apply my energies into doing astrological charts... My first effort is on this "Cardinal Cross" thingy... So - Here it is, I think there ought to be something in there for everyone...

And OK... If 1065 does, in fact, happen to be important... What's wrong with this scenario? The LD was broken on the upside (but that happens all the time, and as of this point, it's wavering and is screaming OVERBOUGHT)... Also, the 50MA is comfortably within the boundaries (perhaps heading towards the apex)...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane, wherefore art thou o' Creditcane?.

SPX
Bullish short day. Gamed the market above 1110. Well above the SMA(21) and now above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above the weekly 3LB reversal price. Tested and passed the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1064.88). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…yes (after the 3rd try). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Still below the 61.8% retrace and looking to test the 50% retrace. New low on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.56).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam. Arrghh!" Still below the SMA(89). The SMA(144) defense has failed. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.95).



GOLD
Bearish short day. Below the SMA(21) and now below the SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". Closed below 14.6% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1195.10).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Back above the SMA(89). Tested and passed 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2895).



JNK
Spinning top day. Still looking to test the 76.4% retrace. Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed the falling window from 5/4/10-5/5/10. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 36.43).



GS
Dragonfly doji day (be careful out there). Still did not test SMA(89). Still below 147.91 (fib .236) again. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 140.25).



10YR YIELD
Doji day. Confirmed hanging man (barely so don't trust it). Didn't test the 14.6% retrace. Avoided retesting 0.0% retrace at 28.83. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Now trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4247.00).





LUMBER
Bearish short day. New home sales higher…BS. Still above the SMA(21). Holding above the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 194.60).

Sunday Evening Post - THERE GOES TOKYO!

CV Surrenders! THERE GOES TOKYO!...

I can't battle the ABC-x-ABC crap... I surrender... Therefore - I can only offer a musical anthology (a timely one at that - from  personal perspective - apologies to those with slow internet connections... This may end up being the SLOWEST, but BEST, "SC" post of all time)...

CV's solemn tribute to BEARS (and to CV himself, for that matter)...

GODZILLA - BLUE OYSTER CULT - 1978

ANDY T's tribute...

---ANDY T---

Good Evening Capitalists (provided Capitalism is still legal),

Embedded here are some thoughts on the S&P 500, DXY and a brief look at Gold.

Anyone else remember that violent puke out last Friday? It looked pretty scary last weekend but the technicals suggested we had experienced only an initial leg higher and that higher prices were likely. Indeed. The picture continues to look bullish for the next few weeks but some pullback/congestions seems more likely this week. The market finished right at key resistance, so if Monday starts strong, expect more follow through to the upside that would target 1130.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Side note musings:

I noticed some banter on other sites that implied that the "news" does move the market at times and that the "news" does not always follow the trend.

That idea is generally incorrect.

The NEWS ALWAYS FOLLOWS THE TREND. ALWAYS. An intra-week or intra-day "gyration" on some kind of "surprise" does not count as a "trend." That's just "noise" which is pretty meaningless when viewed on a longer term horizon.

I know that idea seems like an "absolutism," but in trading, as is in life, some things are "absolute."

Market Update 25 July 10

Frankly... CV isn't MUSING that much... Except in a different way... I "apologetically" discarded you all last Friday to tell you all that I was headed to the EASTERN SHORE (which is, the DELMARVA peninsula, the EASTERN part of the Chesapeake Bay) to do some CRABBING (which I did, & which I hope we'll get to a narrative of this week... time permitting)... What many of you do not know is that CV went to college (you know, the FIRST year before [probation bound] SoCal, at Salisbury State College (hey-at least I didn't have to change school colors) on the eastern shore of Maryland...

Anyway - My first semester of college was 1978... Some kind of crappy year that nobody probably remembers, RIGHT?... Now... You have to think that CV has been back to the EASTERN SHORE of Maryland a couple of times since then (even tho I moved to SoCal in 1979, then lived in Italy from 1994-2006)...

But UNTIL YESTERDAY... The following had NEVER happened...

I'm driving back (not a short drive from southern DELMARVA... Crisfield, [actually SMITH ISLAND] - is where I was at)... And the radio stations start to play a 1978 anthology of music (the time when CV was "18" , a freshman in college, and KNEW ACTUALLY LESS than he knows now [which is hard to believe, right?]...

So the PURPOSE of this thread is to SHARE with you all... MUSICALLY... Why CV knows absolutely NOTHING about the world... Why "Lady GA GA" and the CD 6 packs (of unknown YOU TUBE bands) that I see every week tell the REAL story...

See? The weekend that CV "graduated" from high school, in 1978, (and drove down to Ocean City, Maryland) with... Steve Sebastian (a NASA physicist), Mike Kim (an Air Force officer), Richard Catano (an Air Force officer), Steve Kierstead (an NSA cryptologist), and David Buie (a Coast Guard officer)... The truth is... CV drove because he was the only SOBER person in the graduating class that evening (CV was very "religious" those days... WORSE... a religious JOCK... so he OFTEN drove)...

Anyway - Coming back in 2010 - this evening... It was like going thru a VORTEX... As soon as I passed "Salisbury" (on Rte 13)... The station started playing a 1978 ANTHOLOGY (I kid you not)...

I don't want to elaborate... So all I can do is share (how much we SUCKED back in 1978, and how much more ADVANCED we are to have LADY GAGA these days - plus, JUSTIN BEIBER, & all these anonymous YOU TUBE acts - that I'm sure will be as popular as the following in 30 years)...

Thank GOD you're all not CV... (think about how much your lives would SUCK if the following were the tunes that defined your transition from youth to adulthood - like CV)... Think about it!... Compared to Lady Gaga & Justin Beiber... Your lives would certainly be DULL!... (No HOPE...EVER!)...

SURRENDER - CHEAP TRICK - 1978

HOLLYWOOD NIGHTS - BOB SEGER -1978

2 TICKETS TO PARADISE - EDDIE MONEY - 1978

DON'T LOOK BACK - BOSTON - 1978

(Bonus - PEACE OF MIND - BOSTON) - 1978

YOU REALLY GOT ME - VAN HALEN I - 1978

SHATTERED - THE ROLLING STONES - 1978

DUST IN THE WIND - KANSAS - 1978

WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS - QUEEN - 1978

YOU'RE ALL I'VE GOT TONIGHT - THE CARS - 1978

-BONUS-

CV has to make special note here... To some... NOMINATING "The CARS" seems trivial... But notwithstanding the SUPERSTARS of that era... THE CARS were "it" in that moment... So... let me add...

let the good times roll

best friends girl

just what i needed

bye bye love

movin in stereo

known (to most), from... you know

This... UNHERALDED... Might say MOST of what CV is trying to say... In fact, Springsteen performed this at "the CAPITAL CENTER (which has since been demolished... CV saw Aerosmith - David Bowie - The Beach Boys - Lynrd Skynrd & others at that venue)... He later wrote "Hungry Heart" based on the legacy... Anyway, this (following) is kind of what CV tries to bring to the table... INTENSITY WISE... This is what CV tries to do everyday (night)...

SPRINGSTEEN - PROVE IT ALL NIGHT -1978

In all... It wasn't such a bad year, 1978... But if you GOOGLE "Billboard Top 100 1978"... Hardly any of these songs will show up... Oh you'll get great DISCO tunes from Donna Summer, Heatwave, KC & the Sunshine Band, the Bee Gees, & of course, GREASE came out that year (as well as "Animal House") so you get a collection thereof)... But it DOESN'T tell you the story of what CV (and his drunk buddies) were ACTUALLY listening to on that trip down to Ocean City in the summer of 1978 (and which, strangely, followed me home last evening)...

Despite Andy T's ABC prognostications... CV is "hoping" that algos aren't as DRUNK as my former high school friends...

Either way... I'll have to use my WITS to get us all to the final destination in a SAFE way...

Good Luck... I hope you enjoyed the story... I hope you all enjoy CV ripping off the bandages from time to time...