AmenRa's Corner 6.28.12

In a secret room in the subbasement of 33 Liberty Street...

In brightest day, in blackest night,

No shorts shall escape my sight

Let those who worship the shorts might,

Beware my power, PPT's light!!!

Creditcane™: Otra vez: Remind me to use my vacation days during EOM/EOQ ramps. Arrgghh!!!

SPX
Bearish short day (with long tail). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Still failing the 61.8% minor retrace (1343.55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1304.86). QE2infinity.

DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (81.70). Tested and held SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.29).

VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55,144). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (20.22). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.66).

GOLD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Still failing all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1634.20). Must have the precious.

EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (1.2710). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2647).

JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.11).

10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (14.71). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.65).

WTI
Bearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 0.0% retrace (81.14). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 82.92).

SILVER
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 100.0% retrace (26.60). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 28.14).

BKX
Bearish short day (w/long tail). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21,144). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.55).

HYG/LQD
Bullish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7646).

COPPER
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (3.359). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.441).

AAPL
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 50.0% minor retrace (577.84). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 587.41).

CRB
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (277.27). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 267.16).

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

AmenRa's Corner 6.27.12

Creditcane™: Remind me to use my vacation days during EOM ramps. Arrgghh!!!

SPX
Bullish long day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Still failing the 61.8% minor retrace (1343.55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1304.86). QE2infinity.

VIX VXX VXZ

TED Spread (weekly)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 0.3670
rev= 0.4030; mid= 0.3850

IBEX (Spain) (weekly)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 6876.30
rev= 6065.00; mid= 6470.65

ATHEN (Greece) (weekly)
-change (currently below mid)
trend=down
low= 485.18
rev= 689.86; mid= 587.52

FT MIB (Italy) (weekly)
-change (currently below mid)
trend=down
low= 12739.98
rev= 14359.50; mid= 13549.74

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

AmenRa's Corner 6.26.12

Creditcane™: Why won't you let me run wild for two days in a row?

SPX
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Still failing the 61.8% minor retrace (1343.55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1304.86). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (81.70). Tested and held SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.38).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55,144). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (20.22). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.66).



GOLD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Still failing all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1559.40). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (1.2710). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2699).



JNK
Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (38.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.59).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (14.71). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.65).



WTI
Hammer day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 0.0% retrace (81.14). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 83.00).



SILVER
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 100.0% retrace (26.60). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.49).



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.55).



HYG/LQD
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7646).



COPPER
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (3.287). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.434).



AAPL
Spinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 50.0% minor retrace (577.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 587.41).



CRB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (277.27). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 275.05).

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Week Ahead Musings...

I'm travelling to NYC in the wee hours of Monday morning to visit some good customers in Manhattan and Connecticut.  I'm going to skip any charts this week because there's nothing new to add to the conversation.

Last week we suggested selling the 1357-1365 zone which aligned with the 61.8% retracement of the entire move down from 1422 to 1266.  It was an area that was definitely going to be sold by technicians everywhere, so why not join in the "fun."  It's difficult to know exactly who buys into a bear rally right at the 61.8%, but we're glad they exist.

S&P 500 shorts should consider 1349 and 1364 as first and second level stops in the week ahead.

We've been liking the "look" of the Dollar for a few weeks now and suggested that being long was a "good idea."  That idea was "paid off" last week as the DXY spiked strongly from the 81.23 level.

DXY longs should consider 81.74 and 81.49 as first and second level stops in the week head.

Additional Musings....

In the last several weeks, the WTI market has witnessed an impressive structural shift.  In early May the Sep12 vs. Dec13 spread was $4.00 "backward," meaning that the near month Sep contract was worth $4.00 more than next years Dec contract.  As of this writing, Sep12 is now trading $3.00 UNDER the Dec 13.  The market is now in "contango."

You can never take that much from the mere "flat price" action of a commodity like crude oil.  Whether it's $140 bucks or $40 bucks, you can't tell much about the economy or the "strength" of the market by the price alone.  The real "tell" is the structure.

Contango Markets = WEAK
Backwardation      = STRONG

End of story.

So, not only has crude oil dropped precipitously in the last few months, the structure of the market has also been hammered.  The same story has also played out in the petrochemical and chemical feedstock markets, the building blocks of the global economy.

It's a very ominous signal.

Addenda

Miami Heat looked very impressive in the Finals.  That was a case example of "men" playing with "young men."  The Heat were just 'stronger' physically and mentally as they played with the scars and pain of past competitions.  I hope they Thunder can come back and be stronger, because I like those personalities.  My fear is that the they become the Portland Trailblazers (circa early 90's)...those good teams that failed to the likes of the Los Angeles Lakers, Bulls, and Pistons.  Only time will tell.

Pre-tournament, I picked Germany to win it all in the UEFA Euro 2012...I'm sort of loving that pick right now, though I would rather of seen them play the shitty England side as opposed to the tougher minded Italians in the Semis.

Germany vs. Spain in the finale would be something special....



SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Still failing the 61.8% minor retrace (1343.55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1304.86). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (81.70). Tested and held SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 81.38).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (20.22). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.66).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (1.2710). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.2699).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (14.71). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.65).



WTI
Bearish short day (didn't confirm bullish piercing). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 0.0% retrace (81.14). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 83.00).



HYG/LQD
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7646).



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