Morning Corner 3.2.11

Swiss Franc (weekly info)
new high 1.0774
trend=up
high= 1.0774
rev= 1.0064; mid= 1.0419



I guess we can see where some of the money is going for safety. Because it's not the dollar or it would have been much higher after yesterdays sell off. This and commodities are the new safe havens (for now).



TED Spread (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 0.2220
rev= 0.1490; mid= 0.1855



It's actually turning down. Really??? I want what they're smoking!

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

The Bears had something to say about that first day of the month trade.

Creditcane™: Sometimes the obvious trade is the wrong trade. Keep stops tight.

SPX
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Back below the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed below daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.66).



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(89) & SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "complacent" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1401.10). Well above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Above all SMA's. Closed back below 1.3782 (fibo .09). No daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3534).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Back below its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Also still below lower trend line. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 40.78).



IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Closed above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still failing SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.61).



EEM
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (45.06). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.48).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Back above upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.86).



XRT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 50.12).




RBOB Gasoline
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Closed back above the 14.6% retrace (2.96). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 2.87).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 3.1.11

A modest risk-off day, that included a POMO of 30y bonds. Despite the drop in equities, the only big winners today were IQI and TIP, as the oil scare continues to inflate the TIPS market, and the heat is off munis for the time being. All in all, this wasn't very bullish action in bonds. ADP tomorrow, claims and NFP lined up after that to bash fixed income in the nose, and then when all that is done, supply next week.

Corpies: LQD 0.00%; AGG -0.08%; JNK -0.48%; HYG -0.15%
Govies: TLT 0.29%; IEI 0.13%; TIP 0.58%
Munis: IQI 0.51%; MUB -0.19%
Mortgages: MBB 0.07%
Specialty: ZROZ 0.29%; TBT -0.56%; EMB 0.05%

We were sellers of AGG today, and put a hedge on.
Down to 29% F/I now. 8% hedge.
We bought some SPY (5%). We are short EURUSD (7%).
Go Bucky.

Although with Libya gurgling on we could be wrong, today smells like resistance for bonds, and we think there will be weakness from here into next week's auctions.

Morning Corner 3.1.11

DXY (weekly info)
new low 77.28
trend=down
hlow= 77.28
rev= 78.13; mid= 77.71


Any questions?



Silver (weekly info)
new high 32.92
trend=up
high= 32.92
rev= 29.33; mid= 31.13


It's a done deal. Silver shorts are in the frying pan. The pain of keeping prices down has turned into torture.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: What do you want from me? Can't deny herd behavior at certain times of the month.

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held above SMA(21). Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed above daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.66).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Held SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1388.60). Back above upper trendline. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Above all SMA's. Closed back above 1.3782 (fibo .09). No daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3534).



LQD
Bullish long day. Back above SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 108.13). Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



MUB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 99.26). Still above the weekly 3LB mid.



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still failing SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.61).



CRB
Spinning top day (body is >10% of hi-lo range). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 344.36).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Back above upper trendline. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.30).



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Tested and held 23.6% retrace (53.16). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 55.56).

Morning Corner 2.28.11

Silver (weekly info)
new high 32.92
trend=up
high= 32.92
rev= 29.33; mid= 31.13



Last week was major indecision. Seeing that futures gaped higher on the open the direction has been chosen. The 161.8% from the low of 8.90 was $23.30. We've closed the week above the 261.8% of $32.20. The next minor and major fibonacci's are the 332.8% at $38.52 and 423.5% at $46.59.



Loonie (weekly info)
new high 1.0221
trend=up
high= 1.0221
rev= 1.0115; mid= 1.0168



This move higher in the Loonie (Canadian dollar) has not seen reason to stop. It is now above its 76.4% retrace. How does this affect the price of oil that they export to the US? Is this another reason why oil prices continue higher? Canada is the largest importer of oil to the US by far. See http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html for the top 15 oil exporters to the US.