TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.24.11

Morning Corner 2.24.11

ES (daily info)
new low 1305.50
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1305.50
rev= 1342.50; mid= 1324.00

ES daily candle doesn't look like a reversal. This could be a morning star starting to form but we're not really in a downtrend…yet. But failing to close above the weekly 3LB mid continues to indicate weakness. The new candle forming isn't screaming strength.

Swiss Franc (monthly info)
no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 1.0714
rev= 0.8360; mid= 0.9537

Now at all time highs. Intervention failed last year. Not sure what they may have to do to get CHF lower. The more Europe implodes the higher it will go. Last month formed a bearish harami but that will not get confirmed. Currently the month may close higher and will begin trending up on the monthly 3LB.

Get your mind right before the absurdity of the market drives you insane...

349 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 349 of 349 Newer› Newest»

ben22 said...: "It's against the law to place blame (says Prechter)"

Um, no, that's not what he says, not even close.

but if people here would rather blame others for their bad trades, feel free, nobody is stopping you.; February 24, 2011 at 12:37 PM
CV said...: @foghorn (12:34)

"Weapons of Mass DISTRACTION" (2.0)... - lol; February 24, 2011 at 12:43 PM
karen said...: a lower low in bac today.. just sayn'; February 24, 2011 at 12:44 PM
karen said...: NicTrades Nicola
At turning points correlations usually go to ratshit anyway; February 24, 2011 at 12:45 PM
I-Man said...: @ K

Then we got more selling to do!

:); February 24, 2011 at 12:46 PM
Jennifer said...: I feel like this is a bear trap.; February 24, 2011 at 12:46 PM
CV said...: @ben

Paraphrasing to make a point...

And saying that didn't change the essence of what Prechter implies... IMO

Which is "don't blame others for bad trades" (as I interpret it)...; February 24, 2011 at 12:48 PM
karen said...: NicTrades Nicola
Is $NEM going to break the weekly bear flag?; February 24, 2011 at 12:49 PM
I-Man said...: In all seriousness, maybe we need to see 11964 on YM before the onslaught...

If that happens, it will complete 5 waves down from the 2/18 high, Neely will probably be right, and we will retrace hard to form our lower high.; February 24, 2011 at 12:50 PM
CV said...: @ben

Hey... But who am I? to "interpret" anything anybody SAYS properly?

Obama campaigned on "hope & change"... I INTERPRETED that to be a hollow message (which didn't convince me enough to vote for him)...

It seemed convincing enough to others though...

Or did I INTERPRET that wrong too?; February 24, 2011 at 12:52 PM
I-Man said...: For reference, the 2/3 YM low was at 11933...; February 24, 2011 at 12:53 PM
CV said...: Gadhafi blames bin Laden, drugs for Libya unrest

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41753687/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/?GT1=43001

LOL - I guess Ghaddafi doesn't read Prechter...; February 24, 2011 at 12:58 PM
Mr. Sack said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vS2FxHwviU; February 24, 2011 at 12:58 PM
CV said...: Wis. stalemate: Deal struck, cops sent to Dem homes

MADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin state troopers were dispatched Thursday to try to find at least one of the 14 Senate Democrats who have been on the run for eight days to delay a vote on Republican Gov. Scott Walker's proposal to strip collective bargaining rights from nearly all public employees.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41755772/ns/politics-more_politics/?GT1=43001

Can't wait until Colbert gets a hold of that one...; February 24, 2011 at 1:01 PM
CV said...: ...and don't we have IRISH ELECTIONS tomorrow?

ba-da-BOOM! :-); February 24, 2011 at 1:03 PM
CV said...: Where's HARRY WANGER?

I'm sure he's the only one who has "priced all this in" by now...; February 24, 2011 at 1:04 PM
karen said...: http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/study-finds-cellphone-use-changes/; February 24, 2011 at 1:07 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBnSv3a6Nh4

Gov. Walker.
What a douchebag.

foghorn; February 24, 2011 at 1:11 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Yield Whores might enjoy another 12% divvy payer:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-24/magyar-telekom-has-fourth-quarter-profit-after-tax-credit-1-.html; February 24, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Anonymous said...: Let's discuss the cell phone "brain changes" study. First of all, the changes were small and you get bigger changes from THINKING (admittedly dangerous in the US of B). Hmm. Now let's delve a little deeper....

Given the relationship between holding a thing by your ear (cell phone) next to your insulation (hair) for an hour that produces heat, and the consequent rise in local skin temperature, and the effects of changes in temperature on local blood flow (increase it to get rid of the excess heat) you might wonder why they didn't do the obvious control experiment of holding a LAND LINE phone by the ear for an hour.

Your ear gets pretty hot, although as a man I can't stand phones n wld rthr txt or evn sxt if a ht chck ws so nclnd

It doesn't take a PhD to think of these things.

BTW the head of NIDA was on this paper and she is a massively overblown egotist. I hope this crashes and burns.; February 24, 2011 at 1:19 PM
karen said...: no thanks: MYTAY avg vol 17k shares (not to mention new yearly div .25 from 1.66)

Magyar Telekom Nyrt. rose to the highest in almost a month after the Hungarian phone unit of Deutsche Telekom AG unexpectedly reported a fourth-quarter profit following an income tax credit.

Net income dropped to 7.5 billion forint ($37.6 million) from 10.2 billion forint a year earlier, the company said in a statement to the Budapest bourse today. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for a loss of 9.9 billion forint. Magyar Telekom, which reported a loss of 7.3 billion forint before income taxes, booked 17 billion forint in tax credits for the quarter.; February 24, 2011 at 1:23 PM
CV said...: It doesn't take a PhD to think of these things

But we DO need PhD's to run economic dream teams & central banks...

Otherwise - what would become of us?; February 24, 2011 at 1:24 PM
karen said...: Chicago on verge of breaking snowfall record set in 1896 - NPR News http://n.pr/dPqmyT; February 24, 2011 at 1:25 PM
Yield Hog said...: Yes, the new dividend is a bit less appetizing. Good catch!; February 24, 2011 at 1:25 PM
CV said...: @karen (1:25)

The "snowjob" capital of the world breaking a snowfall record (while Obama & Rahm) are in POWER...

Seems appropriate to me...; February 24, 2011 at 1:27 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

I find that a child could understand prechter's views on taking responsbility for trades, they need no interpretation nor do they need to be twisted around to reveal their true essence, they are black and white statements, nothing at all like a political advertisement.

You seem to really be into the "gut-feel" thing, which is fine for you, others want and have a methodolgy and they follow that in order to make sure when they have a gut feel, which some traders believe kills you, then you use your method to ignore it.; February 24, 2011 at 1:27 PM
Jennifer said...: These 1300 level tests are exasperating.; February 24, 2011 at 1:30 PM
Anonymous said...: All you need to know about trading...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVS1OsGs7uU; February 24, 2011 at 1:30 PM
ben22 said...: From a wave perspective I would state the trend has changed, I still think Neely has the proper count as he has since around mid August.

Still, this might be something worth keeping an eye on before getting too bearish:

the McClellan Market Report:

"One of our favorite tools in years past was the 9-month cycle, which is also sometimes referred to as the 40 week cycle.
Our analysis of several years of data showed that the actual period tended to run around 185 trading days....Since [2007], however, the major lows have been coming about every 164 trading days...Projecting forward, we can count 164 TD from the July 2, 2010 bottom and get a date of Feb. 25, 2011."

I'm shutting my tickers off until next week, the stage is set now.; February 24, 2011 at 1:31 PM
Hugh Hendry said...: LOL. Birinyi's stocks that can't go down....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-laszlo-birinyis-teflon-20-must-short-momo-names

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that they are widely owned by HFs so they tend to TRADE TOGETHER....

Laszlo.... really. You are a silly man.; February 24, 2011 at 1:38 PM
Hugh Hendry said...: I know the ladies <3 me.; February 24, 2011 at 1:38 PM
CV said...: @ben

You seem to really be into the "gut-feel" thing, which is fine for you, others want and have a methodolgy and they follow that in order to make sure when they have a gut feel, which some traders believe kills you, then you use your method to ignore it

---

I'd simply counter that it's a sword that "cuts both ways"...

You've chosen one path over another (with regards to your trading)... Which is GOOD because I frankly like people who take a stand and make a committment...

But let me casually add another perspective from my line of work...

You wouldn't believe how much the TECHNICALS vs. GUT thesis resembles this phenomenon...

IOW - Sometimes, to be successful, I have to be a "technical" instructor (teaching & communicating basically BY THE BOOK)...

Other times (and you only know it when you see it), you have to throw the playbook away and "schoolyard" it...

I can't pretend that would work in YOUR job... But at least it defines my POV... It's something that is REAL... I have to apply this PROFESSIONALLY...

That's all I'm saying... But I'm in a punk ass profession, so what the hell do I know about life?; February 24, 2011 at 1:38 PM
Anonymous said...: We do seem to be putting in a BOTTOM. Does anyone have a nice bottom icon that they can bring in here? Not you, chaps....; February 24, 2011 at 1:42 PM
CV said...: @ben

And by saying this...

"I find that a child could understand prechter's views on taking responsbility for trades, they need no interpretation nor do they need to be twisted around to reveal their true essence"

My sincere apologies for NOT being as smart as a 5th grader and understanding that Prechter is so black and white...; February 24, 2011 at 1:42 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

I lost too much money trading on gut feel, for myself, it meant I was guessing, I found working off instinct in markets typically meant I was just running with the herd.

some people can get away with it, there are lots of good traders out there that do it, or should I say feel it.

I am not one of them

I'm not saying anything is wrong with it, I'm pointing out to you that not everyone believes that sometimes you throw away the playbook.

As for punk ass professions, I thought that was mine?; February 24, 2011 at 1:44 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: hey lefty, riddle me this:

When are rates going back up?; February 24, 2011 at 1:46 PM
Jennifer said...: Let's not have so much fun arguing that we forget to wave goodbye to 1300. What was that about putting in a bottom?; February 24, 2011 at 1:47 PM
karen said...: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/02/24/dont-let-the-experts-shut-down-your-brain.aspx; February 24, 2011 at 1:47 PM
CV said...: "As for punk ass professions, I thought that was mine"

---

That's what the "sheeps" in the linked survey (from 2006) surmised...

Don't put those words in CV's mouth...; February 24, 2011 at 1:48 PM
karen said...: the TED talk.. i always love these..

http://www.noreena.com/2011/02/noreena-on-how-to-use-experts-and-when-not-to/; February 24, 2011 at 1:50 PM
ben22 said...: dude, stop taking everything so personally

I do think you are smarter than a fifth grader, and most adults in fact

what I was getting at there is if you are going to start to discuss Prechter in detail you might want to try reading him first, he's easy to understand, it's not some mystery, you can go to a big box broker for that, they'll contradict themselves at every turn there.

I'm getting the impression that I must have said things along the way to confuse you or other people here about what waves are, this is part of the reason I said I don't want to have e-wave discussions anymore unless people are willing to read the books and practice it. Most people think e-wave is for lunatics.; February 24, 2011 at 1:50 PM
ben22 said...: That's what the "sheeps" in the linked survey (from 2006) surmised...

Don't put those words in CV's mouth...

Again, stop taking everything so personally

it was a joke.....; February 24, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I do recall a bubba on TBP when I used to read it, from New Orleans I think, that bought a boatload of QID when the great recession started. Fine move so far. But he became enamored of his calculations, and held on to his boatload of QID far too long. I even posted once that I would sell some of it, this was about at the max...but he explained to us all that he was sure of his figures. I imagine some of you here remember his name.

Sometimes the gut helps to augment the dry calculations you've done.

and yes, pigs get slaughtered...; February 24, 2011 at 1:52 PM
AmenRa said...: Jennifer

The water is very cold...; February 24, 2011 at 1:52 PM
CV said...: @Jenn

Let's not have so much fun arguing that we forget to wave goodbye to 1300. What was that about putting in a bottom?

The "bottom" (for CV) has nothing to do with 1300...

At this point, it probably has more to do with the moment in time that it will actually NOT be illegal to melt nickles (because the FIAT they represent will have been deemed out of existence)...

or for LB - it may have something to do with karens iconography...

so it's all relative...; February 24, 2011 at 1:52 PM
RPH said...: -BnT

Who is Steve Barry?; February 24, 2011 at 1:54 PM
ben22 said...: yeah, that was Steve Barry on the QID

he should have read that quote from Neely today; February 24, 2011 at 1:54 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Yep.; February 24, 2011 at 1:55 PM
AmenRa said...: Andy T

1303.70 was the 23.6% retrace of the Nov 10 low to Feb 11 high.

We are rapidly approaching weekly 3LB reversal prices. Fasten your seat belts.; February 24, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Jennifer said...: CV -- I only meant for today....I'm much more in the melting nickles camp than my comments here may have indicated. My husband thinks I'm certifiable. But hey, we have a lot of peanut butter. And pasta. Now I just need some recipes that use both, but only for 2 out of the 5 of us.; February 24, 2011 at 1:56 PM
Jennifer said...: I bought the march 133 puts 15 minutes ago and they are up 12% already. Nice, I think that pays for the over priced dinner with parish priest auction purchase.; February 24, 2011 at 1:58 PM
ben22 said...: @Jennifer,

I don't like to fade McClellan.

tomorrow is their bottom date on that cycle, we all knew we were way overbought, even bulls were looking for some correction. I know some other techs I respect are looking at similar dates.

I-man has a gann line he's been working on for a long time now as well that I have in the back of my mind that is still very valid.

I think we are going down hard now, but I thought that last spring as well, and we did....for 3 months.

If Neelys count is correct then the C wave will last at least a year, so I'm with him in that if you have shorts it's better to lock in some gains right now and watch for a day or two, keep some of the shorts on.

I got burned bad last year by holding shorts too long, trading my forecast rather than the markets, it effed my whole year up.; February 24, 2011 at 1:58 PM
AmenRa said...: FTR the SPX daily 3LB will be trending down with a lower close today. The SPX weekly 3LB is showing weakness by not being able to get back above the weekly 3LB mid and continues to move closer to the weekly 3LB reversal price.; February 24, 2011 at 2:03 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: When are rates going back up?

If you mean the overnight rate from the FED, not this year. FUHGEDDABOUDIT.

Japan, bitchez.

Our bottom obsession today was purely iconographic.
We do love to see bottoms, but only when they are so perfect.; February 24, 2011 at 2:05 PM
CV said...: @ben

Again, stop taking everything so personally

Normally - I don't (take things personally)...

But frankly, CV has been in a 'defensive posture' on this blog for a few weeks now... Mainly because I believe my expressed ideas to be in the minority...

I'm not fishing here for a "oh no CV, it's not that way at all" statement from anyone... Just saying that that's my GUT at the moment...

It happens all the time...

I'm a group fitness instructor... So I see that certain people take my class for awhile, then LEAVE and start doing something else...

You pass by these people in the corridors, or make eye contact while they're entering other classes...

You're left with your interpretation of what dynamic changed...

In the end, you have to be like Lazlo's "TEFLON" (because it's USUALLY not the worst [they hate your guts])... Takes awhile to EXPERIENCE that to know it... I've had almost 30 years of dealing with it...

If you don't believe me... Go ask "Amare Stoudmire" how he FEELS in Madison Square Garden in a few months now that MELO is in town...; February 24, 2011 at 2:05 PM
Jennifer said...: Ben,
Thanks for the comment, but not to worry. I'm already out, had the sell order placed before my comment above. That is a trade I couldn't hold for more than 1/2 an hour, too much leverage for sure. Plus, options really only work (for me, at least) when price moves in a straight line. I think this move is due for a retrace at a minimum. I would like to believe that we have put in a top, but even if we have, it should be retested on some time frame(s), which should make a nice trading opportunity. A peaceful resolution of the Libya situation could spark a nice relief rally.; February 24, 2011 at 2:05 PM
CV said...: @Jenn

But hey, we have a lot of peanut butter. And pasta

I'll turn you on to some THAI dishes (that use peanut butter & noodles as the base)...

Very tasty!

Pays to search around the globe for eats... :-); February 24, 2011 at 2:09 PM
I-Man said...: Sometimes your gut feel is a profitable thing... but not blind gut feel.

If there werent other players out there actively fading your rules, or what you see... then it would be different.

Sometimes the "dumbest" trades turn out to be the ones with the biggest gains.; February 24, 2011 at 2:12 PM
I-Man said...: BTW...

Low of day so far... YM 11964... (see the 12:50)

All praises to JAH.; February 24, 2011 at 2:13 PM
I-Man said...: My coach would have said it would be extremely DUMB to bid that 11964...

Case in point.; February 24, 2011 at 2:15 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

I think the correct observation is that when any one of us regulars from this blog leave it, we are immediately the minority wherever we are.

I really think that applies to everyone here, we're just a different breed, which is likely why we are all still here

i've tried to retire from this blog about a dozen times in the last year, but every time I do, I realize I don't have a lot of people in my day to day that I can have honest conversations about this stuff with.; February 24, 2011 at 2:15 PM
karen said...: uso dropping like a rock..; February 24, 2011 at 2:15 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

"Sometimes your gut feel is a profitable thing... but not blind gut feel"

---

See - now THAT is a good point!...

But I'd venture to say that most people who contribute to this blog ANALYZE things very deeply (and are therefore PREPARED and/or TRUST their "gut" at the moment of truth)...

To go along with that, they possess the HUMILITY to exit as fast as possible if they detect their gut deceived them...

You yourself seem to be exemplary of this...; February 24, 2011 at 2:16 PM
I-Man said...: The key to success in trading is embracing the losses.

If you can see them as "kind discipline" and not an affront to your ego, you are ahead of the pack.

But if you get pissed when you are wrong a few times in a row... you are dead.; February 24, 2011 at 2:19 PM
CV said...: @ben

"i've tried to retire from this blog about a dozen times in the last year, but every time I do, I realize I don't have a lot of people in my day to day that I can have honest conversations about this stuff with"

I'm just sticking around until my OSCARS post this coming weekend (then I'm hitting the dusty trail - jk)...

But I'll be around later to take my LUMPS (from karen) when silver crashes...

But the OTHER hand will STILL be buying PHYSICAL SILVER and collecting nickles hand over fist... :-); February 24, 2011 at 2:19 PM
karen said...: http://ibankcoin.com/scott_bleier/2011/02/24/last-bastion-of-hope-or-dont-worry-tech-is-strong/; February 24, 2011 at 2:21 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

But if you get pissed when you are wrong a few times in a row... you are dead

The only time I get "pissed" is when the Ravens cough up a 21-7 lead at halftime with 3 3rd quarter fumbles...; February 24, 2011 at 2:21 PM
CV said...: ...or any time I see Justin Beavers face on a screen; February 24, 2011 at 2:22 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: I seem to have got off the floor now.; February 24, 2011 at 2:22 PM
Cramer said...: Four HORSEMEN. Bitchez.; February 24, 2011 at 2:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Still red, Karen.....

:-); February 24, 2011 at 2:23 PM
I-Man said...: Dude that pissed me off too... I picked Baltimore for the SB last year.

Mrs I picked the Bears/Pats... I had Philly for NFC.; February 24, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Jennifer said...: Back up to the top of that funny trendline on the SPX hourly chart. We can't escape it.; February 24, 2011 at 2:24 PM
I-Man said...: That is no mere trendline girlfriend...; February 24, 2011 at 2:26 PM
CV said...: @karen

"uso dropping like a rock..."

---

Anecdote - my mom just called me on the telephone not 10 minutes ago and said that she went in to a place to eat just now, and within the 30 minutes she was in there, she came out and the advertised price for gas at the station across the street went up 20 cents...

So make what you will out of that "SHOCK & AWE" occurrence...; February 24, 2011 at 2:27 PM
I-Man said...: (sorry about the lack of comma placement); February 24, 2011 at 2:27 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

I had Green bay & Baltimore (so I had half of it right)...; February 24, 2011 at 2:28 PM
CV said...: karen's ZSL price point just went green...

So any minute now she needs to be coming on here and saying something happy! :-); February 24, 2011 at 2:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Still red.

Probably working on iconography.; February 24, 2011 at 2:32 PM
karen said...: no, i'm here, it's just that the zsl trade hasn't been very exciting.. you'd think slv would drop to 31.. faster..; February 24, 2011 at 2:34 PM
I-Man said...: Sickest trade ever.; February 24, 2011 at 2:36 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

you would be happier if you counted to ten sometimes, too.

CV has his own particular point of view, many of us do.

And there are those of us who would NEVER use a financial advisor again. From a hobbyist's standpoint. I have discussed investing with my friends over the years and there is widespread ill will against many of them. It is there and is real...

Churning, lack of performance, shunting to in-house or proprietary funds, the never ending "front-end load"...when people have an advisor, and they still lose their shirts, they resent it....

some of the people in my profession are the worst investors possible. Frankly I think it is because they don't spend any time on a daily basis studying, and many don't find it interesting....

but realize that you will catch more flies with honey than with vinegar...; February 24, 2011 at 2:37 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We have seen the lows in SPY for this round. Fun stuff.
Looks like K is getting a reprieve now in oil/silver.; February 24, 2011 at 2:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Bruce
Looks like some nasty weather headed your way.
It is just now getting here, NE Tejas.
Good luck.

foghorn; February 24, 2011 at 2:39 PM
CV said...: Funniest thing I read today (on ANY blog)

"Hey Guys,

I went to see my buddy at the coin shop this morning.

I expressed interested in buying two more Silver Maples. He reached under his display and placed two on the counter and said, "How about these? Your son sold them to me yesterday, mentioned he found 'em in a busted medicine cabinet and needed cash."

I busted out of the shop shouting every cuss word I knew two or three times each.

When I got home, I found my son (Jesse) relaxing on the sofa and he said, "Check out my new video game!". I'm easily distracted so I focused on the TV, what I saw blew my mind.

In the video game, my son played some average guy walking down a street. Suddenly he punches a woman in the face, runs to a car, yanks out the driver, steals the car, drives it full-speed into a brick wall, leaps out with a bazooka and fires a rocket into a passing station wagon.

After seeing that, I started screaming at him about selling my Maples. I finished my rant with some choice expletives and "those Maples were to help us survive MAD MAX, not buy video games to virtually experience MAD MAX!!!"

After my blood pressure settled down, my son let me try out the video game. I have to admit it's entertaining. The phone rang a few times, but we ignored it cause of a recent rash of crank calls.

I was starting to get a hang of the game when my son said, "try tossing a few grenades into that building". So I did, and I quickly learned there are consequences to bad behavior in the game. Apparently I blew up a police station, and was suddenly surrounded by cops. I received a serious beat down, I was surprised given the game's graphic nature, that one of the cops wasn't brandishing a broken broomstick.

The phone rang again, I decided to pick it up. It was the wife asking why I hadn't picked her up from the salon and what I was doing for the last two hours...

When I picked up the wife, I was expecting sparks to be flying from her mouth, but she was surprisingly calm... until she asked about my trip to the coin shop. I said, "Well honey, we have a little problem. Your son, Jesse.. pawned our Maples and bought a video game lacking in any sense of morality, a 2-liter bottle of Mountain Dew and a bag of Ranch-flavored Doritos."; February 24, 2011 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: twitter a tweet with this--ReutersBreakingNews
Oil traders cite rumor that Libya's #Gaddafi shot pushing down #oil prices; February 24, 2011 at 2:40 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Foghorn:

It has been raining all day...at least the damnable snow has stopped a few weeks now...; February 24, 2011 at 2:43 PM
CV said...: @karen (2:40)

But NEWS STORIES don't move markets...; February 24, 2011 at 2:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Gaddafi just missed me in 1989.
I flew Pan Am 103 - a week after the bombing.

He deserves no pity, has had blood on his hands all his life.
Belongs with Hitler and Pol Pot.; February 24, 2011 at 2:44 PM
CV said...: I wanna know what kind of "chaser" you drink after a GHADAFFI SHOT...; February 24, 2011 at 2:46 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.imagesocket.com/view/2011/01/25/panties513jpgy45.jpg

Ya'll leave Karen alone,
for a while ;>)

foghorn; February 24, 2011 at 2:49 PM
CV said...: @Jennifer

"A peaceful resolution of the Libya situation could spark a nice relief rally..."

So much for that notion (at least in terms of how those who stuff the RUMOR MILL are concerned)...; February 24, 2011 at 2:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Maybe a Jaegermeister?
Master Hunter no.

foghorn; February 24, 2011 at 2:53 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703775704576162350542651930.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us

Illinois Bond Sale Gets Done at a Cost .

"Illinois officials were forced to promise a yield that is about two percentage points higher than was paid by companies with similar credit ratings in recent bond offerings. The state's bond rating is one of the lowest among the 50 states."; February 24, 2011 at 2:54 PM
AmenRa said...: Silver forming a bearish engulfing. Blythe has pulled out the big guns.; February 24, 2011 at 2:57 PM
Jennifer said...: The state's bond rating is one of the lowest among the 50 states.

Rahm's gonna help change that, right?; February 24, 2011 at 2:57 PM
karen said...: http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/02/23/oil-prices-101-whys-our-crude-so-expensive/; February 24, 2011 at 3:00 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Illinois = Greece
S and P ratings = HOPE it will CHANGE.

Future of munis - clavadista de municipades

Yield hogs lie in wait.; February 24, 2011 at 3:01 PM
CV said...: All I have to say is this... (My LAST comment of the day THANK DOG)...

Assuming the "Ghadaffi has been shot" rumor proves false...

In a world where somebody can use an electronic medium like TWITTER to move billions of dollars in the market around in flash milliseconds, and PROFIT off of that (with likely ZERO risk - because a HAYWIRE result would likely be backstopped by taxpayer funded bailouts)...

Well... It's NO FUN for me to "play" anymore in that kind of casino...

That's why CV is all about PHYSICAL these days (and I hang around here because I like the camraderie of all you chaps and chapettes)...

I'm NOT here to piss anyone off by these comments... So I hope nobody feels any ill will... If you DO... Then I really did try my best just to be entertaining and meant no harm by it...

Hasta manana!

CV; February 24, 2011 at 3:01 PM
karen said...: http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/2011/02/24/saudi_arabia.html; February 24, 2011 at 3:01 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: oil-prices-101-whys-our-crude-so-expensive/

Because we are gunning it with massive leverage.
It's WHAT WE DO.; February 24, 2011 at 3:02 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: How is the device, Giles?

Has ample liquidity been collected from JOHN E?; February 24, 2011 at 3:03 PM
karen said...: Interesting: Intraday chart of XLF shows massive volume spike that kicks off a rally off the lows
http://twitpic.com/43by26; February 24, 2011 at 3:03 PM
Anonymous said...: That's not surprising... We "fast tracked" a lot of Nazi's into this country after WW2...

The physicists went into rocket design, but Hitler also had these "psy-op" dudes... They basically went to form the CIA...

More goodies from the "Bush family legacy"...

February 24, 2011 11:03 AM

cv--,

no kidding, was called 'Operation Paperclip'..

http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Operation+Paperclip

AAIP; February 24, 2011 at 3:07 PM
karen said...: zerohedge
ICE hikes oil margins; February 24, 2011 at 3:14 PM
AmenRa said...: I have to bring this up again. Almost every headline I've seen today states "Durable Goods higher" for whatever reason. But somehow they left out their favorite metrics: ex-Trans and NDCG ex-Aircraft. Is it because ex-Trans was -3.59% and NDCG ex-Aircraft was -6.93%?; February 24, 2011 at 3:16 PM
karen said...: probably the real reason crude sold off.. LOL; February 24, 2011 at 3:16 PM
Anonymous said...: ICE hikes oil margins

LOL.; February 24, 2011 at 3:17 PM
ben22 said...: Bruce,

all due respect, but counting to 10 could apply to both of us, I didn't appreciate you calling me son or telling me about how to go about my business in trading or even your assumption that I'm trying to make money to retire. You don't know me. You'd be surprised to know how much money I've made doing this, and you flipped out about Hussman and repeated a bunch of baloney about his returns that was wrong but you were so angry you couldn't see it.

Anyway, I am very sorry for being such a dick about it, you are 100% correct I should have counted to 10, or 20 in this case. As much as you pissed me off, you didn't deserve that. I would also appreciate though you not assuming you know how happy I am in my day to day, I'm beyond thankful for what I have, and I'm very happy in general, don't confuse my disgust for certain things in this world with me being angry all the time.

As for advisors,

here's my opinion on the topic.

1. I don't care at all what the general public thinks about my job. I do care about what my clients think of the job I'm doing. We do a client satisfaction survey every two years, I scored 100% on mine in 2008 and I scored 100% on mine in 2010. That's all that matters to me, the rest is noise. I didn't think I deserved that score in 2010, but that's what clients gave me. In 2008, I thought I deserved it.

2. I blame the advisor for most of what you say above, but people need to take some responsibility too. If the advisor recs prop funds to you, you are under no obligation to say yes to them, same thing with all the advisor recs, people can say NO. It's also nearly impossible for brokers to churn anymore. Front end load funds, I hate them so if you don't want to pay them, then take your money somewhere else, Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, etc, tons of places you can go to get no loads. People may not be interested in this stuff but they still have to take at least some general responsibility to understand what is going on. If the response is that 'they can't understand it' then they should only be in cash.

3. As for those of you who would not use an advisor again. What's the logic there, one advisor is bad so all of them are? That's just silly.

4. On the lack of performance front, the reality is that most people have unrealistic expectations. Let me give you a specific example that may or may not change your view of things

I have a client that invested some money with me in early 2007, he's never had a down year since he's been with me and he's up after my fees about 30% over that period of time through the end of last year.

I got an e-mail from him January 17th this year.

"just got my December statement, I'm not happy at all with this performance, we need to talk"

he was down .6% in December, not for the year, just that month. .6%. Why was he so mad? Well, the market was up 6% for the month as I'm sure you remember, and I didn't keep in lock step.

Now, you tell me, is that appropriate? Am I not performing because in December 2010 he far unerperformed the market?

If you say yes, then I agree, do not ever bother hiring an advisor, there is no such person that beats the market every single month.

I'm not so fast to let people off the hook with this stuff as some of you are.; February 24, 2011 at 3:18 PM
karen said...: slv did get to 31.. : ); February 24, 2011 at 3:20 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

3:01

do you have Stock Operator book?

Please buy it, don't even have to read the whole thing, I just want you to read the story about Consolidated Stove toward the end.

if you think making rumors fly to get a quick profit in markets based on things that arent' even true is something new you have to read that book! The consolidated stove story is the best one in the whole book imo.

it's always been like this dude, you can still play.; February 24, 2011 at 3:20 PM
Jennifer said...: Big turn around in gold.; February 24, 2011 at 3:21 PM
Jennifer said...: While mommy was otherwise occupied, my son spilled chocolate milk on a yellow toile chair. Crap.; February 24, 2011 at 3:22 PM
karen said...: wow.. dto volume very big today..

zerohedge
ICE WTI 1st month margin hikes by 50% from 600 to 900. NYMEX to follow any second now; February 24, 2011 at 3:28 PM
Andy T said...: Silver....

Support comes in around $31/oz...they need to hold it there....; February 24, 2011 at 3:31 PM
Jennifer said...: This turned into quite the reversal. I wasn't elegant about it, but I managed to make money in both directions, which is a skill I've been working on for a while now.; February 24, 2011 at 3:33 PM
I-Man said...: Nice work, Jennifer...

ANY time you make money, its a victory.

Shit, I even count the trades that get clipped at breakeven as wins...; February 24, 2011 at 3:37 PM
I-Man said...: Dont laugh, AT...

I know you did.; February 24, 2011 at 3:38 PM
Anonymous said...: We seem to be getting some relief. Crude is falling.

SPX is green now.... :-(; February 24, 2011 at 3:46 PM
Anonymous said...: I wasn't elegant about it, but I managed to make money in both directions

Damn. I can't even make money in one direction....

LOL.; February 24, 2011 at 3:48 PM
AmenRa said...: Damn near all options on the SPX are down. Calls and puts. Stops killed off everywhere.; February 24, 2011 at 3:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Slightly red with nine minutes to go...

There is a God.; February 24, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Shortcrone said...: So in defense of ben, who is much more talented than me, I'm losing 2 clients this week. One, a retired gent who has been sitting 80% in cash because he can't make up his mind or take any risk at all or move forward on any of the many ideas we've given him, is wondering why his account isn't growing fast enough to pay my fee. The second, and I kid you not, is leaving because I'm not a tea partier and my advice cannot be trusted as a result. So there. Nothing to do with markets at all. Just feelings. Now, if I'd delivered 25% returns I doubt my politics would be under consideration.; February 24, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Lest we forget why we are here:

http://www.ianfraser.org/an-irish-financier-tells-it-like-it-is/; February 24, 2011 at 3:56 PM
I-Man said...: If you delivered 25%, then compliance would be after you.

:)

Good to see you, Crone.; February 24, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Keep an eye on Wisconsin. Quite a few lederhosen wearers there.

http://nakedempire.wordpress.com/2011/02/24/may-1933-hitler-abolishes-unions/; February 24, 2011 at 3:57 PM
Shortcrone said...: No, no, I-man, there is never any risk when you deliver higher returns, lol. Only when you underperform does compliance get interested...; February 24, 2011 at 3:58 PM
Anonymous said...: Still slightly red... can't stand the excitement.; February 24, 2011 at 3:59 PM
AmenRa said...: Anyone want to begin with this evenings financial news headline?

"Stocks close well off their lows. Bears defeated."

"Oil down due to being overbought"

"There will not be a QE3 - US FedRes PR Dept"; February 24, 2011 at 4:02 PM
ben22 said...: @SC,

wow, that's crazy about the Tea Party. Really crazy. I get a little antsy whenever politics come up in a meeting, and lately that's happening a lot more often.

reality is there are lots of advisors trying really hard to do a good job, but people need to have realistic expectations and there are two people participating here, it's not all about the advisor.

there are crappy people in every job, but just because there are doctors that operate on the wrong limb from time to time, doesn't mean I think all doctors are bad or that i'd go marking them as least trusted profession.

Now, for a little socionomics

You know why brokers are so despised?

it's about the persona, not the person.

we have a country that for 25 years leading into 2000 loved the "money culture" and all that came with it, the best on wall street became celebrities, that is slowly changing.

moods; February 24, 2011 at 4:03 PM
I-Man said...: My bad, Crone.

I always thought Compliance Dept's were designed to prevent FA's from making money.; February 24, 2011 at 4:05 PM
Anonymous said...: and the SPOOZ and DOW finish....

RED.

Liverpool beat Prague 1-0.; February 24, 2011 at 4:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone want to begin with this evenings financial news headline?

Market UP, on THE RECOVERY.; February 24, 2011 at 4:09 PM
Shortcrone said...: When AUM rise, both the advisor AND the broker dealer's fees rise accordingly. When you don't play the game, they take notice.; February 24, 2011 at 4:09 PM
Anonymous said...: "I hate Illinois nazis"

http://vodpod.com/watch/841650-encounter-with-nazis; February 24, 2011 at 4:09 PM
Anonymous said...: we have a country that for 25 years leading into 2000 loved the "money culture" and all that came with it, the best on wall street became celebrities, that is slowly changing.

I would like for us to get to the stage where banksters talking about the markets on the subway get smacked over the head with baseball bats. That would be a BUY signal.; February 24, 2011 at 4:10 PM
Shortcrone said...: Well, thank goodness the debbie downers have gone away. It's up, up, up and away for the market now!; February 24, 2011 at 4:10 PM
Anonymous said...: When you manage OPM it's all about AUM not ROI.; February 24, 2011 at 4:11 PM
Shortcrone said...: We get judged according to our AUM, so I am less smart now than I was 2 days ago.; February 24, 2011 at 4:13 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Bond market suddenly has a whole different feel to it now. We don't think we will be hedging for a week or so.

People should remember that the POMOs, in addition to flipping bonds so P/Ds can buy stocks and other higher yielding assets, can also be used to buy bonds. So POMOs can support both markets.; February 24, 2011 at 4:14 PM
bob said...: When/if the dollar turns I expect full on flight again, bonds and stocks up....; February 24, 2011 at 4:18 PM
ben22 said...: @Anon,

I don't think you'll have to wait very much longer for that. if we are going down now, we aren't likely to go as low as 09' but I bet the mood will be worse.

problem for you is, you might not have the service you are used to on that subway either; February 24, 2011 at 4:18 PM
ben22 said...: @SC,

indeed, a few years ago someone wrote to Barron's to ask them if they really thought the advisors with the most AUM were the "top advisors"

I thought question was more than fair.; February 24, 2011 at 4:20 PM
ben22 said...: Has anyone found the answer to when POMO funds settle?

it's not instantly, I know that much, but can't find information on when they settle.; February 24, 2011 at 4:21 PM
I-Man said...: What's "POMO"???; February 24, 2011 at 4:22 PM
Shortcrone said...: A pomelo is a large relative of the grapefruit...; February 24, 2011 at 4:24 PM
ben22 said...: my buddy frizz sent this to me yesterday, you all might have seen it already, enjoy if not:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/denninger/denninger022211.html; February 24, 2011 at 4:33 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The Bond Report 2.24.11

Another solid day of consolidation in US fixed income markets. HY was flat, IG had a modest bit but investors were still keen to flee to the safety of Treasuries.

Munis have had a good week, and so have mortgages, as at least the "rate risk" has been squeezed out of munis for now.

EM bonds are steady but variable. Remember that Chinese and Indian markets are struggling but Russia and Brazil are fine for now.

The curve has flattened a bit, 2s10s now at 282 bps, 2s30s at 381 bps, and as we pointed out 10s30s had to come in from where it was. So those who dig the long bond have had a good week.

Corpies: LQD 0.11%; AGG 0.02%; JNK -0.01%; HYG 0.08%
Govies: TLT 0.64%; IEI 0.04%; TIP 0.36%
Munis: IQI 1.28%; MUB 0.51%
Mortgages: MBB 0.27%
Specialty: ZROZ 1.90%; TBT -1.20%; EMB 0.11

We did nothing, we had a very small hedge on and got stopped out. That's telling us not to hedge for now. We started a EURUSD short today and we were bottom fishing for NZT as our falling knife. Sticking with about 39% fixed income.

AGG 15%, TLT 10%, JNK 9% LQD 5%.
Equity longs (all divs) 16.5%
Short EURUSD 7%; February 24, 2011 at 4:33 PM
AmenRa said...: new thread; February 24, 2011 at 5:10 PM

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Morning Corner 2.24.11

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