And The Oscar Goes to... (2011 Version)

BEST PICTURE NOMINEES

- A "treatment," in Hollywood parlance, is a concise overview of a screenplay -

(So let's just say that by the time CV gets his grubby paws on it in a blog post - it's a "mis-TREATMENT")

CV's "mis-treatments" for this years Oscar nominees...

BLACK SWAN (click to see trailer)

A New York City ballet company is preparing for the production of Swan Lake, choosing to cast a new lead to replace current star Beth MacIntyre as the Swan Queen. However, the lead must maintain an adequate portrayal of both the White and Black Swans. Nina Sayers, a dancer, is picked to compete for the part alongside several other young dancers, including newcomer Lily. Nina lives with her caring but overbearing mother Erica, a failed dancer turned amateur artist who... BLAH BLAH BLAH... Can I cut to the chase?... Effin "Dancing With the Stars" MEETS "Tiger/Soccer Mom", set in NYC (where all that banker bailout $$ passes thru to make you think THIS IS THE PLACE to BE)... Add in the fact that Natalie Portman (although CV ADORES her, and wants to father 10 children with her, happens to be one of the "CHOSEN PEOPLE" (which Hollywood typically likes to honor)...


THE FIGHTER (click to see trailer - requires Flash 8)

Inspirational docudrama exploring the remarkable rise of Massachusetts-born, junior welterweight title winner "Irish" Micky Ward. A determined pugilist whose career in the ring was shepherded by his loyal half-brother, Dicky (Christian Bale) -- a hard-living boxer-turned-trainer whose own career in the ring was nearly sent down for the count due to drugs and crime... If CV liked the film (which "I did" this one), then I won't "mis-treat" it here...







INCEPTION (click to see trailer)

In a world where technology exists to enter the human mind through dream invasion, a highly skilled thief is given a final chance at redemption which involves executing his toughest job to date: Inception... Yeah - and in a world where technology exists to "front run" asset purchases, and use twitter accounts to seed the rumor mill, highly skilled thieves line their pockets, so JBTFD (but not on this film winning any important awards)...







THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT (click to see trailer)

The son of a same-sex couple seeks out the sperm donor who made his birth possible in this comedy.. The committed parents of two teenage children, Nic (Annette Bening) and Jules (Julianne Moore), are about to send their daughter, Joni (Mia Wasikowska), off to college when her younger brother, Laser (Josh Hutcherson), asks for her help in tracking down his biological father. Reluctantly inquiring with the sperm bank, Joni leaves her number so the office can pass it along to Laser's father. Enthusiastic at the thought of meeting his long lost offspring, Paul (Mark Ruffalo) musters the courage to reach out, and the family tree grows a new branch... Um, yeah, I guess... Since when did your average weekly "sit-com" become BEST PICTURE material?


THE KING'S SPEECH (click to see trailer)

The story of King George VI... When his older brother abdicates the throne, nervous-mannered successor George "Bertie" VI (Colin Firth) reluctantly dons the crown... Though his stutter soon raises concerns about his leadership skills, King George VI eventually comes into his own with the help of unconventional speech therapist Lionel Logue (Geoffrey Rush)... Before long the king and Lionel have forged an unlikely bond, a bond that proves to have real strength when the United Kingdom is forced to flex its international might... And what might the UK be needing to "flex" against pray tell??? It couldn't have anything to do with the holocaust now could it??? Oh the suspense is killing me!



127 HOURS (click to see trailer)

Inspiring survival drama based on the incredible TRUE story of Aron Ralston, who became trapped alone in a Utah canyon for days after slipping on a loose rock, and resorted to extraordinary measures in order to make it out of his dire predicament alive... Drifting though the canyons alone, deep in thought, however, the explorer who presumed he was ready for anything quickly discovers just how fast things can spin out of control when a rock gives way as he shimmies down a crevice, and pins his hand to the unforgiving wall of stone... Over the course of the next 172 hours, Ralston tries everything he can think of to free himself, flashing back to small but memorable events in his life - as well as forward to the future that he might enjoy should he manage to wiggle free - as his body begins the slow process of shutting down... Eventually realizing that the only way out is to leave part of himself behind, the exhausted, delirious adventurer draws his cheap made-in-China multi-tool, and does what it takes to survive... If only he were gay or killed a few nazis with his free hand while stuck, this might stand a chance of winning something...


THE SOCIAL NETWORK (click to see trailer)

Director David Fincher (Fight Club, Seven) teams with screenwriter Aaron Sorkin (The West Wing) to explore the meaning of success in the early 21st century from the perspectives of the technological innovators who revolutionized the way we all communicate... The year was 2003. As prohibitively expensive technology became affordable to the masses and the Internet made it easy to stay in touch with people who were halfway across the world, Harvard undergrad and computer programming wizard Mark Zuckerberg (Jesse Eisenberg) launched a website with the potential to alter the very fabric of our society. At the time, Zuckerberg was just six years away from making his first million. But his hearty payday would come at a high price, because despite all of Zuckerberg's wealth and success, his personal life began to suffer as he became mired in legal disputes, and discovered that many of the 500 million people he had friended during his rise to the top were eager to see him fall... IOW - besides being persecuted in the holocaust, it's tough being Jewish because there are tons of people who always want to take your money away from you...


TOY STORY 3 (click to see trailer)

Pixar returns to their first success with Toy Story 3. The movie begins with Andy leaving for college and donating his beloved toys -- including Woody (Tom Hanks) and Buzz (Tim Allen) -- to a daycare. While the crew meets new friends, including Ken (Michael Keaton), they soon grow to hate their new surroundings and plan an escape. The film was directed by Lee Unkrich from a script co-authored by Little Miss Sunshine scribe Michael Arndt... In similar news, on the first Saturday in May each year, they stuff 20 horses into gates at Churchill Downs for the "Run for the Roses"... Ladies wear fancy hats, and people drink mint juleps to see 1 horse get draped in roses... In the sports section in the newspaper the next day contains a list of  the "other" 19 who... ALSO RAN...


TRUE GRIT (click to see trailer)

Fourteen-year-old Mattie Ross (Hailee Steinfeld) joins an aging U.S. marshal (Jeff Bridges) and another lawman (Matt Damon) in tracking her father's killer into hostile Indian territory in Joel and Ethan Coen's adaptation of Charles Portis' original novel. Sticking more closely to the source material than the 1969 feature adaptation starring Western icon John Wayne, the Coens' True Grit tells the story from the young girl's perspective... Perspective??? Perspective???... OK, I'll stop here and make an apology for what seem to be "anti-semitic" comments at every turn... But that's just it... Hollywood is all about "perspective" (who's TELLING the story)... So you you can count on Hollywood using the Coen Bros to tell stories (each year), and "introduce" new stars (like Hailee Steinfeld)... THAT's the "perspective (in ODD years, of course... In EVEN years, the cowboys are of the "Brokeback Mountain" type)... In a couple of more years, they'll figure out a story in which a liberal, no nukes, save the whales, stop global warming, cowboy rides in and frees the prisoners in Auschwitz...


WINTER'S BONE (click to see trailer)

Her family home in danger of being repossessed after her meth-cooking dad skips bail and disappears, Ozark teen Ree Dolly (Jennifer Lawrence) breaks the local code of conduct by confronting her kin about their conspiracy of silence. Should she fail to track her father down, Ree Dolly, her younger siblings, and their disabled mother will soon be rendered homeless... And alas we have our "token" nomination (used as contrast & spotlight alongside all the smart & witty homosexuals, and "Chosen Ones" who are busy saving the world from injustice)... If you're not one of the aforementioned, you're "meth-cookers" who skip out on bail and have very few teeth... You're probably a "tea-partier" too... This is a lesson & reminder to make sure you vote for Obama so your life can be all about Napa Valley & Hamptons wine parties, and goodness knows NOT devolve to this nightmare...

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AND THE OSCAR GOES TO...THE KING'S SPEECH

Can I simply help???... The 'Oscars' (as CV tried to express last year to you all last year in my OSCARS POST) are 'formulaic'... Indulge me while I re-iterate the CRITERA...

- Royals, Actors, Period Pieces, Triumph over disability, Righting 'Social Inequity' (by Jewish standards), ANTI-Nazi... GOOD!!!

- Anything else... 'In the running' aka - "ALSO RAN" (especially if you made a lot of money for Jewish producers)...

That's not as ANTI-SEMITIC as it sounds... But of course it WOULD BE if I happened to be GETTING PAID for something (or any REALITY such as that)... But who the hell lives in a REAL WORLD anymore'???... Most likely NOT 'traders' (who - INSTEAD - live in a fantasy world of ticks and candles)... But don't take MY word on that... I'm just the dude who opted for the DIFFERENT color pill...

Alright... The SIMPLE DIRTY...

In BEST PICTURE... Here's the checklist...

1. The Director (of the nominated film) also gets nominated... IF NOT, you stand NO CHANCE...
2. If NO SCREENPLAY NOMINATION... You're effed as well...
3. So at this point, you're down to "The Social Network", "True Grit", "The Fighter", "The Kings Speech" & "Black Swan"
4. Once you've narrowed the field down to this, you have to get to SOCIOECONOMICS... You can't really put "True Grit" into that category (because DOG knows todays society is THOROUGHLY lacking in
that characteristic - You might say the same about "The Fighter" [because we live in a society whereby ANY & ALL ills can be soothed by benevolent "Sugar Daddy Puppets Presidents funded by bankers... NOT THEIR FAULT, of course, just that they somehow got HIJACKED in their rhetoric along the way - best to leave with a POCKETFUL OF hope & especially CHANGE than 'nada'... right? right?]...
5. So if you haven't figured it out by now, we're down to "Black Swan", "The King's Speech", & "The Social Network"...

I gotta say that based on the recent events in the MIDDLE EAST, I'm tempted to go with the "Black Swan" variable... But CV has to peer LONG into the future (& recent PAST, for that matter)... Meaning??? Voting has most likely ALREADY occurred (that is... BEFORE the aforementioned "Black Swan" actually hit the headlines - & Ghadaffi & MuBARAK started fueling jets on the tarmac & loading them with gold bars)...

So while HISTORY may favor that result, TIMING, unfortunately, DOES NOT... But on that same note... "The Social Network" LOSES a bit of appeal...

Last Year, CV correctly predicted "The HURT LOCKER" would win the Oscar (practically on the SAME divination of criteria)... I'll stick with my guns and say that "THE KING'S SPEECH" will win on the same...

And before you go about dismissing my predictions... Consider this... Here were my OSCAR PREDICTIONS from last year...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010_02_28_archive.html

There are 6 major categories I treated... BEST PICTURE, BEST DIRECTOR, BEST ACTOR, BEST ACTRESS, BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS... Last year, there were 7 nominees in the BEST PICTURE category (and 5 in all the rest)... For you "math whizzes" out there, the ODDS of getting a YAHTZEE (picking ALL 6 correctly would be)...

.143 X .2 X .2 X .2 X .2 X .2 =  .0000457 (roughly equivalent to the chance of getting a balanced federal budget, OR, the S&P closing "red" on any given day while THE BERNANK is still Chairman of the "Feed US Your Reserves")...

You'll CORRECTLY note that I hit 5 out of 6 correctly... And in the one category (supporting actress), I DID manage to narrow the field down to TWO nominees (the eventual winner - MONIQUE) made the final cut for CV... But I went with my "heart" in the final decision... So let that be a lesson to all you TRADERS out there... Don't trust your heart!... Trust your research!

Lastly - If you're wondering if last year was just a FLUKE??? Well just ask "Miki"... Who is "Miki"??? Miki is my "EX"... We're still very good friends... She's not a regular contributer on this blog because it's not her dish... But she did "chime in" on that thread...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/03/weekend-edition-and-oscar-goes-to.html?showComment=1268025330608#c3344847591324726800

She'll tell you that I practically "ace" this thing year after year...

Now... THAT SAID... I'm going to tell you that this is the MOST DIFFICULT field of nominees that CV has had to sift through in over a decade... But that's NOT an excuse... I'm still shooting for PERFECTION here...

I'm going to finish this thread by tomorrow morning (with the 5 other categories)... But I wanted to get it started... I hope you'll join me... I'm still more of an NFL guy, but the OSCARS are fun for me...

Cheers!

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BEST ACTRESS NOMINEES

ANNETTE BENING - THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT

Annette Bening plays Nic, a successful doctor who has raised two children with her female partner and must confront the problems that arise when they seek out their biological father... Well OF COURSE she is a lesbian successful doctor... If not, she'd probably be busy looking for her "meth lab" running dad who was violating parole... Instead, this "dad" is just some scraggly bearded jolly fellow just thanking his lucky stars to be able to hang with such wonderful people...

NICOLE KIDMAN - RABBIT HOLE

Adapted for the screen by David Lindsay-Abaire from his own Pulitzer Prize-winning play, director John Cameron Mitchell's Rabbit Hole stars Oscar winner Nicole Kidman and Golden Globe-nominated Aaron Eckhart as a married couple who find their relationship on life support following the devastating loss of their young child. The further their relationship deteriorates, the harder the grieving parents fight to keep it alive...

JENNIFER LAWRENCE - WINTER'S BONE

Her family home in danger of being repossessed after her meth-cooking dad skips bail and disappears, Ozark teen Ree Dolly (Jennifer Lawrence) breaks the local code of conduct by confronting her kin about their conspiracy of silence...

CV likes Roger Ebert's take on this...

"The movie heroes who affect me most are not extroverted. They don't strut, speechify and lead armies. They have no superpowers. They are ordinary people who are faced with a need and rise to the occasion. Ree Dolly is such a hero..."

FLOTUS for the rest of you...

NATALIE PORTMAN - BLACK SWAN

The latest film from maverick virtuoso director Darren Aronofsky ("The Wrestler," "Requiem for a Dream") choreographs some new moves for several familiar romantic-with-a-capital-"R" themes... Natalie Portman (who CV has always admired), get's the Mickey Rourke (Wrestler) part here by association... Some have snubbed this as "Showgirls" (without Elizabeth Berkley & Gina Gershon flashing their tits & coochies all over the screen)... I'll stick to the "artists passionate about their art" theme... It's really an audience tossup (CV is going to have to actually side with what I believe the DIRECTOR'S intent was to put this in the can - therefore, Natalie Portman gets a hall pass [as "should have" Mickey Rourke] for taking it to the nines)...

MICHELLE WILLIAMS - BLUE VALENTINE

"Blue Valentine" tells the story of David and Cindy, a couple who have been together for several years but who are at an impasse in their relationship... No wait!!! STOP THE PRESSES!!! That's the most unique situation I've ever heard of!!! (Now let's make the JUMP STEP as to why this deserves OSCAR consideration)...

While Cindy (THE FEMALE) has blossomed into a woman with opportunities and options, David (THE MALE) is still the same person he was when they met, and he is unable to accept either Cindy’s growth or his lack of it...

Ba-Da-Boom! Well I suppose this is a step beyond last years MEN'S SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMINEES which included:

- A guy (male) bringing you the bad news that your son died in a war started by George W. Bush
- A white South African (male) who only finds redemption when the follows the wishes of nelson Mandela
- A philandering author (Tolstoy)
- Another white dude (male) who rapes and kills your teenage daughter
- A white "nazi supremacist"... (male, of course)...

So since they HIT THE HOME RUN last year (with the WORST of the WORST), this year, it shifts to reminding you how hard women have to work to overcome these annoying males...

Snark off... CV is very happy MW was nominated here... She deserved it!

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AND THE OSCAR GOES TO...NATALIE PORTMAN - BLACK SWAN

When it comes to the "acting" categories, it's not as FORMULAIC as BEST PICTURE is concerned... Well, I should actually say "IT DAMN WELL IS" (but in a different way)... Instead, the "criteria" are:

1. Performance (but "performance" often has little to do with delivering lines on camera - it REALLY has to do with PREPARATION)...
2. Sacrifice - which is an offshoot of #1 above... Make a personal not of all the actors and actress nominees who have "shed pounds", "developed a stammer", or otherwise gone "OUT OF THE BOX" to perform a role... Examples of such are DE NIRO/Raging Bull, HOFFMAN/Rain Man, HANKS/Forrest Gump, SWANK/Boy's Don't Cry, THERON/Monster, HUNTER/The Piano, WOODWARD/The 3 Faces of Eve, RUSH/Shine, CAGE/Leaving Las Vegas, LEWIS/My Left Foot, and many others...
3. "Body of Work" puts you in the running as a tiebreaker (as it did for Jeff Bridges last year in the ACTOR category)...

So how did CV go about "whittling away" nominees this year??? WILLIAMS & LAWRENCE were just happy to "get in" (and their nomination was a way of saying - "keep it up kid" - especially because you BOTH are heroes who have to pull out all stops in order to survive against those scumbag males - we don't know how you do it - but KEEP IT UP - the world needs MORE of your types)...

KIDMAN had the dishonor of having to SHARE her "overcomance" with a male character, so her performance gets taken down a few notches (besides - she FAILS in the "Body of Work" category for the OPPOSITE reason of which it's intended... Which is to say... She ALREADY won an Oscar... Of course there's nothing to say you can't get more than one, but oftentimes the EX OSCAR WINNERS are paraded out just to give CREDIBILITY to the rest of the field (ask Helen Mirren, Bette Davis, Meryl Streep, or a few others)...

So we're down to NATALIE PORTMAN & ANNETTE BENING... Let me just say... THIS ONE IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR CV... Really - Annette Bening should get the honor (based on my cheat sheet)... She has the pedigree... She SHOULD have won in 1999 for "American Beauty" but got nosed out by Hilary Swank (BOY'S DON'T CRY)... So think about it... Remember what I said above, "SACRIFICE" being an ingredient... Swank won the SACRIFICE that year because she played a TRANSGENDER role (and in Hollywood, if you're basically a "gay, jewish, liberal political activist, who has been WRONGED by white males"... you're GOLDEN)... But that year, Bening's role was a wife who was actually kind of neurotic (vs. Kevin Spacey - who the PUBLIC kinda thought was "cool" in the end - and of course ended up getting a bullet in his head for basically just wanting to say "fuck you" to his job, buying a 1969 Pontiac Firebird, getting stoned, and fantasizing a little about screwing his teenage daughters best friend)...

Anyway - 12 years later - Annette Bening is a lesbian doctor (so she's OBVIOUSLY evolved - both intellectually & spiritually)... I'm sure she's WAY smarter... Smart enough to start her own blog where she spends her time searching IP numbers of comment posters who she doesn't like so as to CENSOR their input on humanity... I suppose... I'd bet that someone like RITHOLTZ would want to have her as a regular contributor on TBP...

Peeps... That's pretty hard to go against...

But juxtaposed vs. that is Natalie Portman... It takes A LOT for an actor/actress to change their body in a way to get in to a role... CV "knows" this (via personal training experience)... Furthermore - CV thinks that Natalie Portman will win an OSCAR, for something, someday...

So this is really hard - RIGHT NOW - to differentiate the two...

They BOTH qualify on most of the criteria I'd mentioned...

- Both get the nod on "Body of Work"
- Both get the nod on "Sacrifice"
- Performance - ironically, becomes relative, in this instance

Part of me wants to say that it OUGHT to go to Bening (simply because of AGE factor - which means - how many more "shots" will she have vs. Portman)... But I'm going to go with NATALIE PORTMAN here... I might get this one wrong...

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BEST ACTOR NOMINEES

JAVIER BARDEM - BIUTIFUL

This is the YGFBKM department... Alright, let me explain that... What you need to do is to link back up the comments I made LAST year with regards to Penelope Cruz...

Oh? So you're THAT lazy and spoiled? (well here's the link)...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010_02_28_archive.html

And BTW, if you're THAT lazy and spoiled that it's a MAJOR tragedy/suffering to "link click"; scroll down to what I said a year ago on this subject while you're sitting there with a glass of wine in your hand... Then DOG help you!!!

So NOW "The Academy" (as I said last year), needs to insert its Penelope Cruz... No Penelope Cruz movies this year??? No problem... Just put her new husband in there (who happened to win a token 'bad haircut' OSCAR before because he starred as a scumbag male in a "Coen Bros" movie)... How hard is that (to round out a field)???

JEFF BRIDGES - TRUE GRIT

Take Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart/True Grit) & Colin Firth (A Single Man/The King's Speech)... Mix 'em up and what do you get??? Answer: Two ACTORS who could basically 'swap' Oscar statuettes on any given year (or the GIVEN years - as fate may have it)...

CV correctly predicted Jeff Bridges would win last year in "Crazy Heart"... Let's say I'da been WRONG... Well in that case, he'd have won this year for playing the "Rooster Cogburn" role (who I ALERTED to you all last year - but I'm sure nobody was paying attention in the same way that nobody pays attention to my "nickles bitchez" & "tilapia bitchez" comments)... After all, CV is just a MADMAN (a hairtrigger away from being the Unabomber - or in some parts, spelled "Unibomber")...

Statuette won (4JB)... CV correct (unacknowledged correct prediction - as per usual)... Colin Firth still left on the sideline (we'll get to that later)... Rooster Cogburn... Still DA MAN! (but you have to be a homosexual COWBOY [NOT John Wayne] to win an OSCAR these days)...

JESSE EISENBERG - THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Umm... What do you want me to say??? Would you prefer me to make the "Chosen One" argument on why he was nominated? (kinda like Natalie Portman - but with less credentials than she???)... The HARVARD argument??? You know - like all people that need you to tell you how to run your lives need to either come from Harvard (or be "backstopped" by Harvard - or in some cases "handpicked" like cotton by Harvard)... POLITICS ESPECIALLY...

Frankly - I can't say whether this dude will ever make it onto the scene (or not) of the "FLAV OF THE DAY" pinups (think ERIN CALLAN, BLYTHE MASTERS, & CO. - in a 'female' sense, of course - but WHAT'S REALLY THE DIFFERENCE anymore anyway?)... Next???

COLIN FIRTH - THE KING'S SPEECH

Backup to the Jeff Bridges argument (above)... This race is between Jeff Bridges & Colin Firth... Luckily, it's not as difficult as BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE category (because Jeff Bridges already won last year)...

Colin Firth PAID HIS DUES in "A Single Man" because that single man was an "in the closet" homosexual... I don't want to spend paragraphs on that subject (because MY POINT isn't to beat that horse into the ground)...

In this case... COLIN FIRTH deserves consideration (not to mention that it fills many OTHER arenas such as "anti-holocaust", director awards, and such)...

There are PANTHEONS of actor awards that will stay bubbly atop the minds of Academy Award recollection (think CROWE/Gladiator, HANKS/Forrest Gump, HANKS/Philadelphia, HOPKINS/Silence of the Lambs, DOUGLAS/Wall St., KINGSLEY/Ghandi, DE NIRO/Raging Bull, FINCH/Network, NICHOLSON/One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, BRANDO/The Godfather, HACKMAN/The French Connection, SCOTT/Patton, POITIER/Lilies of the Field, PECK/To Kill a Mockingbird, HESTON/Ben Hur, GUINNESS/The Bridge Over the River Kwai, BRYNNER/The King & I, BRANDO/On the Waterfront, COOPER/High Noon, OLIVIER/Hamlet, CROSBY/Going My Way, STEWART/The Philadelphia Story, TRACY/Captain's Corageous, CLARK GABLE/It Happened One Night)... I doubt Colin Firth will make it into that pantheon, but he's earned something here...

JAMES FRANCO - 127 HOURS

I'm not sure what to say here in that I loved this movie, but I realize, at the same time, it doesn't stand a snowballs chance in hell of receiving a BEST ACTOR Award... Which means if I go [snarky] and say "also ran", that comment doesn't depict my true mood...

OK... Let's just get to it (and I'll summarize the rest in the... Umm.. "SUMMARY")...

If this TRUE STORY dude had just been gay or Jewish, he might have a chance (but that's not the case)... His MAIN value, therefore, is to exist as a candidate (that will never win), versus a:

- dude who MIGHT HAVE won last year as an "in the closet" fag, but lost out to a Hollywood legacy who was "owed"
- a "Hollywood Legacy" who WON last year because he WAS owed (especially because he'd appeared in previous Coen Bros movies called "The Big Lebowski" [which DID earn its stripes - BTW])...
- A Jewish dude, played by a Jewish actor, in a movie produced and distributed by Jewish conglomerates, in a scenario where all involved make tons of money, create mountains of lawsuits, and tell us that OUR VERY EXISTENCE is predicated on their "infiltration" prowess on society
- A Spanish foreign actor (in a year dearth of Penelope Cruz - the HUSBAND of - actually)... Who gets to be trolled out because he co-operated with various Jewish film companies & directors...

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AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... COLIN FIRTH - THE KING'S SPEECH

Not "undeservedly", by the way... I have to apologize, again, for what seems to be "anti-semitism", and/or "homophobic" commentary here... But these are angles you'll NEVER read on MSN, or any of the other commentary and/or opinion blogs you may read AT LARGE...

As stated somewhere above... The "movie" is how you see it in the WRITER - then- DIRECTOR - then - ACTOR interpretation (in that order)...

My "viewpoints" are largely based on the VIEWPOINTS that I percieve to have been "suppressed" in the past generation or two (due to what is logically the OVERSHOOT in response to oppression in the other direction)...

So basically I say...

- WOMEN - Revolt! (because you were repressed for many years)
- AFRICAN AMERICANS - Revolt! (because you were repressed for many years)
- JEWS - Revolt! (because you were repressed for many years)
- MINORITIES - Revolt! (because you were repressed for many years)

Have at it... EVERYONE!... It's your time to do so (Ecclistaices even tells you there's a TIME for it)...

But CV "NEVER" remembers a moment in his life that he actually exerted any of this oppression on any one of you... Worse - CV "mostly" remembers being the subject of retaliation (simply by category)... But that's MY cross... I'm not bothered by it (to any larger extent than to express it it in 'social commentary' via literature - or a BLOG, as the case may be)...

If it OFFENDS you as such... Then GO AHEAD!!! You take the time to write this shit!

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMINEES

CHRISTIAN BALE - THE FIGHTER

True life story of boxer "Irish" Mickey Ward and his trainer brother Dick Eklund (Bale), chronicling the brothers' early days on the rough streets of Lowell, Massachusetts through Eklund's battle with drugs and Ward's eventual world championship in London... IOW, "Door #1", this white guy battles with drugs and can barely keep his ass out of prison...

JOHN HAWKES - WINTER'S BONE

Door #2, this white guy loser cooks meth in a a lab and hides from the law...

JEREMY RENNER - THE TOWN

Boston bank robber Doug MacRay (Ben Affleck) falls for a woman his gang had previously taken hostage... Over the years, Doug's fearless partners in crime have become something of a surrogate family to him; Jem (Jeremy Renner), the most dangerous of the bunch, is the closest thing Doug has ever had to a brother. But a divide begins to open between the two career criminals when Jem takes bank manager Claire Keesey (Rebecca Hall) hostage during a particularly tense heist, and the group subsequently discovers that she hails from their own tight-knit suburb...

Door #3, this is the "scariest" white punk in a gang of white punks...

MARK RUFFALO - THE KID'S ARE ALRIGHT

In Door #4... We finally escape the "criminal loser types", but Mark's character (Paul), get's showcased here to essentially "remind" men that the only real use for them in life is as sperm donors to successful lesbian doctors whose name happens to be "Allgood" (Annette Bening)...

GEOFFREY RUSH - THE KING'S SPEECH

I gotta say that Door #5 had to be tough for the Academy... While they might have been able to dredge up another scumbag white male from somewhere (Dog knows there are enough of them to go around), how could they POSSIBLY leave out the guy who was really the REASON that a film like THE KING'S SPEECH existed in the first place (speech therapist Lionel Logue)... So if it is the intent to coronate "The King's Speech" this year, it would be pretty silly to overlook the speech therapist... It only helps that the whole shebang ended up giving England the courage in the throne to go out and fight Nazi's...

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AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... CHRISTIAN BALE - THE FIGHTER

This is probably the easiest category to handicap (for a lot of simple reasons)... There's not a lot of pedigree in the competition... Renner was nominated last year for The Hurt Locker, but this may be an attempt to keep his face fresh... Hollywood isn't sure if it wants to make an "action hero" out of him or not, so it has to put him into these "nominations" while the jury is still out... Rush played a role in "Shakespeare in Love" (which took home a lot of hardware - but is generally acknowledged as one of the WEAKEST Oscar winning Best Picture's of all time)... Hawkes is just a journeyman actor (who will find it hard to break out of the mold of the character he played in "The Perfect Storm" - He'll never get off that sword boat)... Ruffalo is a faceless face who is only here because his sperm was somehow useful...

So BRUCE WAYNE it is... The Academy likes actors who sacrifice for the sake of art (which Christian Bale did in preparing for this role)... It shouldn't be too hard... Besides, Bale winning will hopefully grease the box office for the next Batman epic...

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMINEES

AMY ADAMS - THE FIGHTER

I told you all last year that CV has an undying love for Amy Adams...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010_02_28_archive.html#AMY ADAMS.

She should have been nominated for "Julia & Julia" last year, but was left out (so maybe she's getting payback here - playing the love interest of Mickey Ward [Mark Wahlberg] in The Fighter)... If a nomination keeps her face fresh in the minds of the public, I'm all for it... Here she's "fighting" against a dual nomination in the category from the same movie... Unfortunately, often that doesn't work well for either nominees...

HELENA BONHAM CARTER - THE KING'S SPEECH

So... Marla Singer becomes Queen Elizabeth... I suppose it's hard NOT to get nominated plating the Queen of England... HBC has an interesting resume (which I suppose it depends what one was in to in figuring out where she fits in - the Marla Singer character [from Fight Club] always sticks out in my mind)... Of course, ZEROHEDGE practically has the franchise on that now... Most of her other more noteworthy roles needed a British actress, so of course she gets the call... "The King's Speech" is going to win a lot of major awards... Not sure if this will be one of them...

MELISSA LEO - THE FIGHTER

Melissia Leo plays the mouthy matriarch of the Ward-Eklund clan... You know, if she wins, that would be two years in a row for mouthy matriarchs (Monique - from Precious won last year)... I'm not sure where the Academy is going with this... Leo ruffled a few feathers recently when she had the gall to buy her own glossy (i.e. tacky) trade ads featuring a glamorous shot of the 50-year-old actress along with the word "Consider." And, with the Academy Awards, you just don't do that kind of self-promotion because, as we all know, nominees don't actually campaign for the prize... But SAG & Golden Globe wins cement her as the frontrunner here...

HAILEE STEINFELD - TRUE GRIT

The 31st "first time" role to receive an Academy Award nomination (playing the "Mattie Ross" character that Kim Darby made famous)... You gotta ask yourself why a principal character like that of Mattie Ross ends up as a "supporting" role (though Darby didn't receive a nomination in either category)... I think what you have to consider here is that this is a Coen Bros film (which is likely to lead to a lot more roles for this young lady)... Seeds, baby... Seeds...

JACKI WEAVER - ANIMAL KINGDOM

OK - So there was no Penelope Cruz movie out last year (which means, the "catch basin" for foreign films & actresses gets filled here since there's no Rinko Kikuchi, Sophie Okonedo, Shohreh Aghdashloo [what? you don't remember those names]... and frankly, the Academy has been pretty good recently in filling it's affirmitive action quotas with Jennifer Hudson, Queen Latifah, and MoNique just last year)... The token Brit nomination (usually a Helen Mirren, Judi Dench, Catherine Zeta Jones, or Rachel Weisz, was given to Helena Bonham Carter), so I suppose Jacki Weaver is just filling in for Cate Blanchett here...

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AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... MELISSA LEO - THE FIGHTER

I'm going to "punk out" and go with the chalk here... Melissa Leo won the SAG & Golden Globe Awards and that usually puts you over the top here... I really wouldn't be surprised to see an upset though... The Academy isn't too keen on self promotion, and Melissa Leo may have pissed some voters off... There are also some other things... Given the almost CERTAINTY that Christian Bale is going to win "Best Supporting Actor" honors, it would be very unusual to see the Supporting Actor/Actress categories swept by a movie which is NOT likely to win in either the Director or Best Picture category...

Also, as I mentioned last year (with "Up In the Air"), when you pit two nominees in the same film against each other, it's tough for one to win at the expense of another... Leo & Amy Adams are against each other in this category...

However... You could also make the case of saying... "If not then, who else"?... Helena Bonham Carter would be the first in line (because the Queen of England often wins [as in "Shakespeare in Love", or "The Queen"])... Hailee Steinfeld could win because it's a Coen Bros film, but the fact that Kim Darby was never even nominated for the same role would bother me... Jacki Weaver probably has no chance... So MELISSA LEO wins by default (but CV would like to see Amy Adams)...

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BEST DIRECTOR NOMINEES

DARREN ARONOFSKY - BLACK SWAN

Well at least we can say that Aronofsky is getting some overdue credit which was overlooked in "The Wrestler" a few years back... Aronofsky expertly toggles between the faux-realistic using his handheld camera & often stalking Nina from behind, just as he did with Mickey Rourke in his prior film "The Wrestler"...

It creates a certain "edginess" (which may or may not come to be understood by the old guard in Hollywood)... But at least now it's getting recognized...

ETHAN & JOEL COEN - TRUE GRIT

The Coen Bros get nominated!!! Whoodathunkit??? The first thing you have to ask yourself is... "Why did the Coen Bros take on this project"?...

The answer to that question probably lies in their quirkiness as moviemakers... They basically feel like they've reached a high enough plateau that they can take on things JUST FOR THE HELL OF IT (as if to say, "This is how we'd do it")...

While that sounds cocky (and probably is), if you manage to pull something like that off and not get ridiculed for it in the process, it further cements you as a legend... It's kind of like Bill Clinton picking up a saxophone and jamming with the band... It's hard to imagine this will win Best Director for them, but having them in the audience "as nominees" helps give credibility to the other nominees (in a year with no Quentin Tarantino films)... You're making a mistake if you try to compare True Grit to it's original, or even compare it as filmmaking to the other nominees...

DAVID FINCHER - THE SOCIAL NETWORK

You could say that this is the 3rd nomination in a row that brings sort of a new style of directing to filmmaking...  Fincher is best-known for dark crime thrillers like "Seven", "Zodiac", "The Game", "Fight Club", "Panic Room", "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"... What makes those (and this) unique is Fincher's "shot-on-digital-video" style... It makes everything come out dark and Moody... Comparing the:

- Hand held style of Aronofsky
- Quirkiness of the Coen Bros
- & this dark, moody, "shot on video" style of Fincher

We may have created a category of films to judge that are utterly impossible to compare in any "apples to apples" way...

TOM HOOPER - THE KING'S SPEECH

So what have we here?... I'll tell you... Mixed in with a group of directors who one could sit down on a marathon weekend of film viewing and see one good film after the next, up jumps HOOPER (who was basically a British TV director before this came along)...

This should deserve serious consideration (based on dynamics alone)... Here is what it has going for it:

- The movie was popular
- Classic filmmaking style
- A good cast of (nominated) actors & actresses
- will likely win Best Picture (whereas probably True Grit & Black Swan are longshots in that category)

Underneath all of this is that it would be "easier" to just hand the statuette to a NEWBIE, than to try and hack through the styles that the aforementioned directors bring to their craft...

DAVID O. RUSSELL - THE FIGHTER

Russell comes back after a long filmmaking hiatus, but there's nothing in his past that really stands up against the nominees... He's famous for having flare-ups with cast members, but ironically, in this film "The Fighter", the cast and crew bonded pretty well...

It's hard to imagine this film taking home the Director award (especially since it's likely to be awarded it's share of hardware in various acting categories)...

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AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... TOM HOOPER - THE KING'S SPEECH

This is another tough one to make the final cut on... The path to doing so basically went this way...

- Eliminate David O. Russell
- Eliminate the Coen Bros (just based on the movie itself)
- So you're left with the "styles" of Aronofsky, Fincher (vs. Hooper  - who is more classical but has less pedigree)
- When IN DOUBT (because you have two "styles" juxtaposed against each other - go with what stands out - & that would be HOOPER
- If instead, the choice would be made to go WITH a style, Fincher ought to win on pedigree...
- So that said - Fincher basically eliminates Aronofsky

With Fincher & Hooper as the final 2 candidates... One might say that Fincher has so much work behind him, he's going to end up being one of those directors who works and works and works, and finally wins something 10-20 years from now...

I'll take my chances with HOOPER (with Fincher next in line)...