Weekend Edition - Week 9 NFL & NCAA Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals

2010 NCAA Picks: 28-16-2
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +5
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$340)

NFL Picks: 44-40-4
NFL (unit picks differential): +4
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+$10)



MICHIGAN (-3) at Penn State - 2 units
Penn State  41 - Michigan 31 - (-$220) - Incorrect
OHIO STATE (-25.5) at Minnesota - 1 unit
Ohio State 52 - Minnesota 10 - (+$100) - Correct
Washington State at ARIZONA STATE (-21) - 1 unit
Arizona State 42 - Washington State 0 - (+$100) - Correct

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - results" Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Iowa, Marshall, Bowling Green, Georgia, USC, TCU, Cal, Idaho, UCLA

Anyone who involves themselves with the process of sports wagering will inevitably come across some TOUGH BEATS... Last week's MICHIGAN STATE/NORTHWESTERN game fell squarely into that category (turning a 3 unit win into a 3 unit loss in about a minute of game clock)... Go re-live my comments on last weeks thread if you missed it... I don't want to re-live it... I will instead, get to some thoughts on this week...

I'm continuing on my theme from last week (in that CV has GIVEN YOU the last 3 #1 ranked teams in the nation to go down in succession [Alabama, then Ohio State, then Oklahoma, 1-2-3])... This week... OREGON should be on the slab (playing USC down in Los Angeles)... USC is on NCAA probation, so really they have nothing to play for, so THIS is their Super Bowl... I'm not going to lay units on it this time though, just a "nod" towards what I think a potential wager should consider...

I'm also LAYING points with two visitors in the Big 10... (Ohio State & Michigan)... I'm never keen on laying points (especially on the road)... But the two opponents (Minnesota & Penn State) are EXCEPTIONAL dogmeat squads this year... It's hard to believe that there's actually value in those lines... I'll add Arizona State to the mix as well because Washington State is dogmeat, but ASU just got whooped last week and the public is dropping them like a hot potato...

In my "non-unit" edges, I don't know why I'm picking Iowa against MSU... MSU has a horeshoe up their ass this year (and proved that to me last week)... Marshall should be winning some games and this might be the play... They are the "anti" MSU as they have a skunk up their ass... I just like Bowling Green because Central Michigan shouldn't be laying double digit points to any team not named the Penn Stae junior varsity girls volleyball team... GEORGIA (with Green back in the lineup), can play some ball... And lastly... TCU... Well, I'm taking TCU & Boise State in every game until the BCS decides that it's ranking systen is FOS... I'd love to do a Missouri-Nebraska pick, but don't feel I have an edge on that one either way...

CV will be in Annapolis on Saturday (for the Duke - Navy game)... Homecoming... Go Middies!

Week 9 NCAA Picks: 7-5-0
Week 9 unit pick differential: +0
Week 9 wager total: (-$20)


NFL Preview:
Week 8 Injury Report (for FANTASY PLAYERS):

I'll have the NFL fantasy write-ups later in the morning...

BYE WEEK: (Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia, Cleveland, NY Giants )


Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (in London, 1:00 EST)
Line: 49ers by 2

This is what has become the annual NFL game at Wembley Stadium in London... I really don't know why the NFL does this crap... Ostensibly, it's to try and "market" the league around the world, and in hopes that there may exist franchises in other countries some day... Let me just tell you... IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN... American football is nothing more than an amusement to soccer crazed fans around the globe... And ask Canadian Football fans what they really think of the NFL...

The tough thing here is the time zone... It's hard enough, mid-season for players who would like nothing more than to sit in a whirpool all week at their teams training facility, to pack their bags, get out of their routine, stay in a cramped hotel, eat crappy food, and play a game which is 9 hours off their internal clock... I mean, they already want to expand the schedule to 18 games... No WONDER the players want to strike...

But, if I have to make a call on this game, I suppose I'll side with the 49ers (reluctantly)... The "luckiest" person here may be Alex Smith who got pounded into the turf last week in 49ers and is out for the season... The 49ers will be starting former Heisman trophy winnerTroy Smith (who actually didn't play that bad in Baltimore when he had the chance)... I'm cautious going AGAINST a team (Broncos) who got embarassed last week vs. the Raiders... But since this game is being played on the outskirts of Mos Iseley... I'll stay with the 49ERS for (1 unit)...

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys (1:00 EST)
Line: Cowboys by 6.5

Tony Romo is probably out for the season... Frankly, I don't think it makes much difference... John Kitna is a capable backup with a lot of NFL experience... He's never had as many weapons to work with as he does right now... But the problem with the Cowboys aren't their "weapons" it's their offensive line...

The entire NFL is weird right now though, and if the Cowboys go on a run, they could still finish 8-8 (which just might make the playoffs... I've been kind of hinting though that a NEW COACH in Dallas will finally come to pass at the end of this season... It'll be down to John Gruden, or Bill Cowher... CV was leaning towards Cowher, but I've changed my mind... I really think that Jerry Jones wants to draft Ryan Mallet (Arkansas) in next years draft... This is the perfect cover... Cowboys lose games, move up in the draft, and have the ability to pick up Mallett... Gruden is known as a "developer" of QB's... Romo is now damaged goods (but probably has a few years left)... Gruden would suit that idea perfectly...

I've already told you how much the Jags suck... The lines makers are "insulting" (the Cowboys) by making them only 6.5 favorites at home (probably due to their 1-6 record and the fact that the public HATES betting with backup QB's)... It's unknown if the Jags will be going with a backup themselves (from St. Cloud State). as they did last week, or if Garrard will play)... Possibly the only interesting thing to the Jags is the fact that their LONE win this year came against fellow Lone Star state rival the Houston Texans (who are in the same division as the Jags)...

Nevertheless, the Jags are underachievers, and I doubt the Cowboys will have much problem covering a line that's less than a touchdown... Kitna seemed to "find" something with Dez Bryant & Jason Witten at the end of the Giants game last week... So by next week you can expect the return of Roy Williams going back to being a crybaby... The only thing that makes me nervous here is the idea that Dallas might just be "writing off" the season... So I'll make it a soft play of COWBOYS for (1 unit)... 

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (1:00 EST)
Line: Lions by 2.5

Matthew Stafford will be back in the line-up for the Lions here... This line puzzles me a little... It's like Vegas is giving the Lions some EXTRA CREDIT for Stafford being back... Surely it is an upgrade, but it's not like Shaun Hill played that poorly while Stafford was out... The Lions have been putting up some numbers and "hanging" with almost every team they've played... They hung 40+ points on the Rams (who are NOT, I repeat ARE NOT doormats anymore)...

But this seems a little excessive... With a home field advantage, Vegas is basically saying the Redskins and Lions are about equal... I'd disagree with THAT... The Redskins have been up and down this season, but they've beat some quality teams... (Er, um, yes, that's saying that the Cowboys & Bears are "quality" teams)... They've also beat, the Packers, Eagles, & played the Texans tight... The thread is that ALL of the above mentioned teams, SHOULD be able to put a quality team on the field for a game... All of them have proved that NFL teams don't always play their best, week after week... So the Redskins have just taken what has been given to them... You can't fault a team for simply doing what it takes...

That's why I have to side with the REDSKINS here... But I'm only doing it for (1 unit)... The last few years, the Redskins & Lions have always, mysteriously played tight ballgames... The Redskins were actually the team that the Lions broke thru against after that horrible 0-16 year... So maybe they have some confidence... REDSKINS for (1 unit)...

Green Bay Packers at J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets (1:00 EST)
Line: J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets by 6

There's nothing to tell me I should take the Packers here... Except for... Wait, let me re-phrase that... There's nothing to tell me I should GO AGAINST the Jets... There - that reads better...

So why am I going against the Jets then? Simple Math... The Jets have been a covering machine this year (and I'm not just talking about Revis & Cromartie)... They've been covering point spreads in very difficult situations (Miami, Denver, New England, Minnesota)... The only one they failed to cover was the first week against Baltimore...

Even though the Packers were CV's pick from the NFC to go to the Super Bowl (and STILL ARE - BTW)... The Packers have played "ho-hum" football this year... But they have been totally wracked with injuries... This week they get gack Al Harris, Atari Bigby, & Ryan Pickett on defense... Even if those players are still not 100%, the "experience" factor could pay off against a Jets offense headed by a young QB (Nacho Sanchez)... On the offensive side, nobody doubts that Green Bay has weapons, and certainly THESE weapons are the most the Jets, despite their formidable defense, have seen all year... It'll come down to pass protection for Green Bay... To their advantage, Chad Clifton has been playing better as his health has improved, and Brian Bulaga has really come on...

I'm looking also at some prior year instances where Aaron Rogers was able to defeat Rex Ryan defenses (when he was DC for the Ravens)...

All in all, I'm hoping this will be an interesting game... If the Packers ARE the best the NFC has to offer, they're going to have to get off the schnide here... Most NFL team rankings don't even have an NFC team in the top 5... Most rankings have it... Steelers-Ravens-Patriots-Jets-Colts, then MAYBE an NFC team like the Giants, (who barely beat out Dolphins there)... Minnesota plays New England this weekend, so maybe (Chris Berman accent) "THE NORRIS DIVISION" can take it to the AFC East this week...

I'll take the PACKERS and 6 points on that chance for (4 units)...

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams (1:00 EST)
Line: Rams by 3

The Panthers got off the schnide last week by beating the (1-6) 49ers on a last second play to an unknown receiver as the 49ers were too distracted because they were afraid they'd miss their plane for London...

All I can say here is that the Rams DON'T appear distracted this year (and are still in legitimate contention to contend for the NFC West title)... Which is like winning a "Miss Sierra Logger" beauty contest... Steven Jackson may or may not play here after getting some pins put in his finger last week...

I think with things on the line, SJ will play, and that always helps the Rams chances... Let's put it this way... If the Rams ACTUALLY DO have any hopes of contending for the NFC West, it is these types of games that they simply must win... A loss here would be a huge setback (after letting one slip away last week on a last minute drive by Tampa Bay on the road)...

I'll go ahead and side with the RAMS here (on the short line), for (2 units)...

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST)
Line: Bengals by 1.5

This is a tough game to handicap because it goes against some of my principal rules... One of the primary rules is to NOT take teams that are either in a soft spot on the schedule, or just lost an emotional game...

That is a "double" no-no (because the Dolphins lost last week vs. the Steelers on that STUPID FRAUDULENT call by the ref at the goal line where Rothleisberger fumbled, but the refs awarded the ball back to the Steelers because of botched applications of officiating... It's a good thing I'm not Tony Sparano (head coach - Dolphins) because if I was, I'd have been levied about $3 billion in fines from Roger (donate to the "build a gold statue" in my honor fund) Goodell... It's a good thing I'm not Tony Soprano either, because someone would have been fitted for some cement shoes... But actually I think Tony Soprano had his $$ on the Steelers, and that's why the call came out as it did... The Steelers ALWAYS get those calls... It's no secret that the Rooney family made its money running numbers in the early days...

Anyway, another "no-no" is to NOT BET CRAPPY teams... Last week I said to BE CAREFUL betting the Bengals (because a loss there could send their season spiraling down in a hurry)... Well, despite good fantasy numbers by Carson Palmer, the truth is, they all came in junk time... The Bengals are in disarray and until they right the ship, I can't side with them... DOLPHINS for (0 units)...

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5

The Bills embarassed me (and my Ravens) last week... You should have seen Ray Lewis yelling and screaming at the entire defense of the Ravens (on the sidelines), towards the end of the first half (when the Bills were racking up yardage & points like the Ravens were some WAC teams junior varsity playing Boise State)...

The pep talk worked, and the Ravens managed to dig out of a large hole and come back to win the game... In any case, though, I think the experience had to do a lot for the confidence of this Bills squad... It just seemed that they were playing very "loose" (which is about all you CAN do when you haven't won a game yet)... Ironically, the Chiefs should be about where the Bills are right now, but they've managed to notch a few wins... I can't say though, that the "wins" by the Chiefs have come against the elite of the NFL (they've beat the Chargers-Browns-49ers-Jags- combined 8-20 records)... While it's never an easy thing to do (win an NFL game), it's quite a different thing to do when you are EXPECTED to win (and cover a high point spread)... The Bills, OTOH, are 0-6, but they've played the Dolphins-Patriots-Jets-Packers-& Ravens (all EASILY within the top #7 elite NFL teams)...

I'd expect the Chiefs to start doing what most athletes (or sports teams) do when all of a sudden they start realizing the unexpected gravity of their accomplishments... CHOKE!

So I'll take the BILLS here, for (5 units)...

I'll have afternoon game write-ups by gametime

Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at San Diego Chargers (4:05 EST)
Line: Chargers by 3.5

Here's another game that... WHADDYA SAY?... Let's just go ahead and play the game and see how it turns out... OK?... The Chargers stink, right? How can they be laying more than a field goal to the Flaming Thumbtacks with Chris Johnson? besides the Chargers woes on special teams, most of their WEAPONS are hobbled with injuries... Antonio Gates is racked up (playing hurt), and BOTH wideouts (Nannee & Malcom Floyd) are nursing sprains & hammies as well... Ryan Matthews fantasy owners (yours truly included), have been disappointed as hell...

I don't know people... What the hell would make CV interested in the Chargers (and their crappy 2-5 record)?

Well... Has anyone noticed that on defense the Chargers are ranked #1 vs. the pass & #4 vs. the run?... "Oh well... (you counter)... they haven't seen Chris Johnson yet"... True - but they HAVE faced Steven Jackson - the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (#1 rushing in the NFL, believe it or not - with Jamaal Charles leading the league in yards per attempt), Maurice Jones-Drew, and Darren McFadden, who is 8th in the NFL in rushing, #2 in yards per game, and had a FANTASY OWNERS WET DREAM last week vs. Denver... That's not a bad array to be #4 against...

So I guess the Titans think they're gonna throw, right? Against #1? Against the team that leads the NFL in sacks?

Look - I'm not going to sit here and say the Chargers are "all that" (with their 2-5 record)... But it seems to me that the MEME of the NFL this year is "pairity"... Whoda thot that the Titans would lead the AFC South in this moment, and Whoda thot the Chargers would be languishing behind the Chiefs, Raiders, & Broncos in the AFC West...

I'm guessing it's the SAME PEOPLE "Whoda thot" that the Flaming Thumbtack are a LOCK here (getting points)... I'll take the CHARGERS for (5 units)...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (4:15 EST)
Line: Cardinals by 3

Alright... It actually DOES get tiring doing a game write-up on every single NFL game... Look people... The Arizona Cardinals are DOGMEAT (it's unbelievable that they sport a 3-3 record)... They may end up 3-12 by the end of the season... I said "may" (because there are numerous instances whereby DOGMEAT teams can win games in the NFL)... I don't think this is one of them... Josh Freeman has, if you haven't noticed, displayed an incredible knack for pulling out games for this rebuilding Tampa Bay squad... They don't have all the pieces, but I'm convinced that they have MORE pieces at the moment than a Cardinals squad that is "picking up pieces" after Kurt Warner left them...

Max Hall isn't the answer... & if they're back to Derek Anderson now... Then CV will simply revert to "being like" Derek Anderson and throwing about 20 drunken interceptions per game... You'll see it in my weekly "Wednesday Night BLOG WARS against other sites trying to wax poetical on economics & politics"...

I prefer BIKINI WAXES myself...

I really should only put 2 units on this, but since I doubt I'll actually bet any REAL money on it, I'll take the BUCCANEERS and the points for (5 units)...

Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders (4:15 EST)
Line: Raiders by 2.5

These two have been amongst the two most mercurical and unpredicatble teams in the NFL this season... They're more mercurical than Mannwich trying to decide on which way a 5 minute candle is going to break when time (on the candle) expires...

CV is not interested in ANY of the above mentioned characters until they become anything other than your average everyday "Sloppy Joes" and embark on a pattern...

For shits & grins, I'll take the SEAHAWKS for (0 units)...

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (4:15 EST)
Line: Patriots by 6

Hey... here you go... Despite a "filtered" list of some interesting games, and NON-INTERESTING games early on... The NFL has graciously enriched humanity, this late SUNDAY AFTERNOON HALLOWEEN (before the elections & Fed meeting next week)... With a game to savor some chips, salsa, & beer on...

Let me be clear... CV "hates" both of these teams... So why am I interested?... I'm a complex kind of guy... I'm not like OTHERS in the blogspace (who prefer to "X-OUT" the rest of humanity simply because they don't ascribe to a certain code of ethics, or POV)... I believe in the richness & diversity of life... Therefore, I believe games like this have something to offer... MORE THAN THAT... It may be the most entertaining game of the week...

What we have here is a "saga"... Brett Favre is turning into a "TRAGIC-COMIC" figure (much like many characters in the blogosphere)... It's his own [Brett's] doing... He's held on TOO LONG... But the public clearly seems to DELIGHT in his ongoing escapades... I have to admit... CV does as well...

At stake here is the Minnesota Vikings (who missed making it to the Super Bowl by a couple of plays last year), trying to hold it all together and make another run with this RELIC at the helm...

I don't wish BAD for Brett Favre... ( I actually "like" him)... If I was an NFL head coach, I would have NEVER put myself (or the prospects of my team) at the mercy of this character for this season... But my name isn't Brad Childress, and I happen to do OTHER things...

The other side of that is that CV is also a firm believer in the notion that when you make a decision, YOU FOLLOW IT THRU... Now - that's not a BLIND philosophy (as it may sound)... It's just that FOR PERIODS you may have to dance with the girl you brought to the dance, and if it all ends in a big train wreck... WELL... You deal with that when it comes...

I swear, I could write 5,000 words on this game... But I'm just going to synthesize... THIS IS SOCIOECONOMICS 101... This is a crazy "effed-up" world that we're living in at the moment... Obama is out of control... The USA is out of control... It's fucking Halloween for dog's sake... Elections are next week... Tea-partiers are knocking at the door... Americans are likely to elect a bunch of FOOLS next week (to replace other fools)...

Sounds like a good place to take the MINNESOTA VIKINGS (& the points)... for (10 units)...

This is my OCTOBER PICK OF THE MONTH... on the last day... Crazy right? That's the world we live in folks... And that's the type of RISK that CV takes when he finds his perfect spot...


Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (8:20 EST)
Line: Saints by 1
CV leaning towards small unit play on Saints


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (8:35 EST)
Line: Colts by 5.5
CV leaning towards small unit play on Texans

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Market spent a whole week trying to enter the promised land…and failed. That's my M.O.

Spinning top day (body still too big for doji). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1178.10). Failed to take out monthly 3LB reversal all week. QE2infinity.

Inverted hammer day (careful dollar bears). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.65).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.78). The "no fear" zone is in the rear view mirror.

Bullish long day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1322.60).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4049).

Bullish short day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading range is still between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.66).

Bearish long day. Closed gap with a vengeance. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back below the weekly 3LB rev (26.88) but above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.95).

Spinning top day again. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4779.72).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 292.98).

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.89). Anyone see a triangle?


The QE2 Bond Report 10.29.10

Fixed income punters snapped up all forms of US corporate and government paper today, including photocopies of Bernanke's arse, as anticipation mounted that the Fed would buy all paper in the country including old copies of National Geographic.

Corpies: LQD 0.20%; AGG 0.21%; JNK 0.19%; HYG 0.04%;
Govies: TLT 0.94%; IEI 0.27%; TIP 0.33%
Hedgies: TBT -1.85%

We are on the sidelines here, exceot for our high yield.

Morning Audibles

Just in case you were wondering... The Elections & QE2 explained (by Charles Schultz)...

Obama: "I got Harry Reid his seat back!"

Rush Limbaugh & Glen Beck: "I got a majority in the House!"

J6P: "I got a ROCK"!

On QE2

Goldman Sachs: "I got a trillion to play with and pay bonuses!"

JPM: "I got a trillion to play with and pay bonuses!"

Every Hooker & Coke Dealer in Manhattan & on K Street: "I got a fresh new client base!"

J6P: "I got a rock!"

2008/Stimulus Package
"Let's sit here in the pumpkin patch... & you'll see the GREAT PUMPKIN with your own eyes!"
(2:30)... "Good Grief... I said IF!... I meant 'when' he comes!"

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Law of gravity…it's harder to push objects uphill. Just sayin'

Spinning top day (body a little too big for doji). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1178.10). QE2infinity.

Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed the 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.65).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 18.78). The "no fear" zone is in the rear view mirror.

Bullish engulfing day. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB (reversal is 1370.50).

Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4049).

Hanging man day again. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading range is between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.54).

Spinning top day. Failed to close gap. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back below the weekly 3LB rev (26.88) but above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.95).

Spinning top day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 4779.72).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 292.98).

Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.90). Black Fridays creeping earlier again. Holiday estimates may be too high.


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