AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Up and down. Up and down. No stop is safe when I go up and down.

SPX
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Holding above trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Held the 38.2% minor retrace (1312.78). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1307.41). QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (74.94). Tested and held SMA(21). Holding its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 74.79).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Back below its 38.2% retrace (20.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.32). Extradited back to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1588.90). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1562.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURCHF
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (1.1491). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1589).



JNK
Bearish short day (confirmed hanging man). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed SMA(233). Failing its 61.8% retrace (40.20). Below trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.39).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (29.56). Further below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.97).



WTI
Bullish short day. Held SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (96.60). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 91.02).



SILVER
Bullish short day (evening star fail). Now above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the upper trend line. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (37.94). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.65).



BKX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 50.0% minor retrace (46.69) and held its 61.8% minor retrace (46.19). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 49.22).



HYG/LQD
Bearish short day (possible bearish thrusting). Holding SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.8201). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8332).

IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.

Morning Corner 7.15.11

ATHEN (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 1308.48
rev= 1232.60; mid= 1270.54

That didn't take long. The Greece stock index is already making a weekly 3LB reversal down barely a week after getting the bailout. It's still below all SMA's. It even gapped lower to start the week. No wonder Greece is already asking for the next tranche.



FT MIB (weekly info)
new low 19049.88
trend=down
low= 19049.88
rev= 20117.49; mid= 19763.69


The FT MIB (Italy Stock Index) started off the week in a serious down mode. As you can see it's now near its highs. Italy's bond auction went ok (thanks to China & ECB). The week did gap lower and is the second gap (continuation) so the down move isn't over.

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AT's Quick Glimpse on Silver and Gold below. It's been a while since I've Scribd anything on the metals. This is my best guess on what's going on with the 'shinier' things...

Silver and Gold Commentary 14JUL11

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

"We're inviting Bernanke over to thank him."

Creditcane™: I sponsored Bernanke in a marathon so he flipped the script in the Senate.

SPX
Bearish short day (didn't confirm inverted hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Holding above trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 38.2% minor retrace (1312.78). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1307.41). QE2infinity. Also now below the weekly and monthly 3LB mid.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (74.94). Tested and held SMA(21). Holding its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 74.79).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above its 38.2% retrace (20.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.32). Escaped out of the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (1588.90). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1482.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURCHF
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (1.1574). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1684).



JNK
Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(233). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (40.20). Below trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.39).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (29.56). Further below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.97).



WTI
Spinning top day. Held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (96.60). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 91.02).



SILVER
Spinning top day (evening star forming?). Holding SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the upper trend line. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (37.94). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 33.60).



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 50.0% minor retrace (46.69). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 49.22).



HYG/LQD
Bullish long day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (0.8128). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8332).



COPPER
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (4.430) but holding its 61.8% retrace (4.331). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4.282).

IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.

Morning Corner 7.14.11

Platinum (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 1677.60
rev= 1865.50; mid= 1771.55

Platinum has been trying to make a clean break above its 61.8% retrace (1716.65) but keeps pulling back to it. It's been stuck in a $400 range since May 2010. Trying to at least get back above its weekly 3LB mid this week. It's above all SMA's.



Rough Rice (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 12.90
rev= 15.89; mid= 14.40

Last week Rough Rice closed above its weekly 3LB mid and is now trading above its weekly 3LB reversal price this week. It's above all SMA's. It's also above its 38.2% minor retrace (15.92). Asian citizens are about to get pissed off…again. Expect more riots soon.



DXY (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 75.76
rev= 72.93; mid= 74.35

The dollar did all it could to get above its 61.8% minor retrace (76.49) but has failed miserably. It's back below its 38.2% minor retrace (75.10) which is also the monthly 3LB mid. It's testing the SMA(21) and it has held so far. You'll also notice that the SMA(55) has crossed below the SMA(89) and SMA(233) back in June 2011.

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S&P500 Short Term Update from AT:

This update is a little more general in nature but sticks to the same themes. Will do a Metals Commentary this evening before heading for another family weekend.

SP500 Short Term Update 13JUL11

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

"I let that bull get away. Now what will I eat?"

Creditcane™: I'll bet that didn't feel like the market closed higher. Did it?

SPX
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Holding above trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (1312.78). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1307.41). QE2infinity. Also still below the daily 3LB mid.



DXY
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (75.83). Tested and held SMA(21). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 74.79).



VIX
Bullish short day (another hanging man freed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above its 61.8% minor retrace (18.56). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.32). Escaped out of the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1570.70). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1480.90). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURCHF
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (1.1643). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1894).



JNK
Spinning top day (ugly confirmation of morning star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(233). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (40.00). Below trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.39).



10YR YIELD
Bearish engulfing day (in a downtrend no less). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (29.56). Further below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 31.97).



WTI
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (97.62). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 91.02).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (37.94). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 33.60).



BKX
Spinning top day (not a good morning star confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (47.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.64).



HYG/LQD
Bullish engulfing day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (0.8128). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8332).



TLT
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Trading above its upper trend line. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (97.39). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 95.37).

IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.

Morning Corner 7.13.11

SODA (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new high 75.68
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 75.68
rev= 51.45; mid= 63.57

SODA is trending up on the monthly 3LB (not on the weekly). This week is bearish but is not a reversal candle. It has closed below the 50.0% minor retrace (67.50). It's still above the weekly 3LB mid. Probably some profit taking just in case the markets weakness becomes pandemic.



GOLD (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 1557.30
rev= 1475.00; mid= 1516.15


The 1550 as resistance is history. The value of gold in all currencies is making new highs. Or said another way all currencies are losing their value. It's above all SMA's. The weekly and monthly 3LB are both trending up. Central banks all over the world have stocked up on Depends.


2s30s Spread (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up
high= 4.01
rev= 3.52; mid= 3.77

This spread has been in a tight range for months. The 2yr yield is low enough that it's the yield on the 30yr that determines the spread. Currently it's above all SMA's. It is now below its 61.8% minor retrace (3.84). It's also close to breaking below its lower trend line. Let's see what happens if there is a QE3.