A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
See what happens when you don't feed the bear over a long weekend?
Creditcane™: My masterpiece.
SPXBearish long day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Obviously no test of 0.0% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1343.01). QE2infinity. JBTFD?…
DXYBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.61). Below new weekly 3LB mid.
VIXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above all SMA's (in one fell swoop). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 15.69). Back in the "fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1375.10). Must have the precious.
AUDJPYBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21) & SMA(144). Still below its 85.4% retrace (0.8368). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 0.8404).
JNKBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Back below its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Also back below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.34).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 37.25).
IQIBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. Failed its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Back below its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).
XLFBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 17.18).
WTIBullish long day. Back above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back above the 76.4% retrace (94.11). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 87.17).
EEMBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. Back below its 38.2% retrace (45.06). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 46.48).
Case-Shiller Composite (10 City)Home prices made a confirming low on the monthly 3LB. Just putting that out there.
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 2.22.11
A female investor reviews the asset classes....
She reflected wistfully... you know, there was a Texan fellow, but he was oily and after a few quick spurts he went down again quickly.
Then there was Mr Goldfinger, shiny and alluring, but kind of cold and metallic, and a girl could never get anything out of him, really.
Mr Stock, well, he was all very exciting to begin with, all his talk about how much Growth he was offering... but when it came to my needs, he didn't really offer anything, and when I called him Small Cap he became a bit soft and then just sort of deflated and went down rather quickly.
Mr Bond, you offer Return of Capital, and you do seem very steady, and the nice thing is, a girl knows you will hold up your end long enough to give her some yield. I want you, Bond....
Corpies: LQD 0.28%; AGG 0.36%; JNK -0.76%; HYG -0.82%
Govies: TLT 1.50%; IEI 0.62%; TIP 0.79%
Munis: IQI -1.77%; MUB -0.47%
Mortgages: MBB 0.34%
Specialty: ZROZ 2.19%; TBT -2.91%; EMB -0.61
Well, there you have it. Ladies prefer Gentlemen who prefer Bonds. We sold some AGG and some TIP today, reducing F/I to 37.5%. We closed our EEM and FXI shorts for a large profit.
Party on.
18 comments:
Pretty good work out there ACROSS THE BOARD (comment wise), by the crew of regular posters here...
Fantastic!
a "hat tip" (from CV) to you all!
CV
The move today was similar to a daily 3LB reversal and confirmation all at once. The fact that we closed below the weekly 3LB mid so early in the week puts the bulls in the spotlight. So they need to step up or get run over. Another problem for the bulls this week is the Ireland elections.
Did anyone notice that the NYSE and NASDAQ had more new highs than new lows? The JBTFD crowd are still hanging on...for now.
speaking of 'Cocoa'/"Chocolate Cupcakes"
here's a take..
http://www.magnetmail.net/actions/email_web_version.cfm?recipient_id=198771319&message_id=1241840&user_id=SOSLAND&group_id=527584
and, a different tangent..
http://www.bakingbuyer.com/News/News%20Home/2011/2/Blommer%20Cocoa.aspx?NewsLetter=true
Baker's Workbench..
http://www.bakingbuyer.com/videos/bakers%20workbench.aspx
AAIP
What’s the next niche to be filled? It may well be “healing spices” and other ancient food ingredients, according to the Center for Culinary Development (CCD), San Francisco, CA, in its most recent “Culinary Trend Mapping Report,” issued in December. Consumers are engaged in trying out new foods and diets in hopes of curing what ails them, the report stated. Such curative foods have roots in ancient times.
CCD maps culinary trends, rating them with its trademarked Trend Map tool by where they are on their way to mainstream acceptance. In this ranking system, Stage No. 1 represents foods just now appearing in upscale, ethnic and independent restaurants, while Stage No. 5 characterizes those closest to broad penetration and seen on popular grocery store shelves and in fast food and quick service restaurants.
“Our current report focuses on wellness trends that tap into ancient wisdom, which is getting new life among consumers,” explained Kara Nielsen, CCD trendologist.
The report identified docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), an omega-3 fatty acid touted with brain health claims and to be at Stage No. 5. Agave nectar, considered a natural, healthful, plant-based sweetener suitable for bakery use is noted as well into the Stage No. 3 ranking (seen in mainstream chain restaurants and smaller grocers). Hemp, fermented foods and sprouted foods are in Stage No. 2 (featured in some specialty stores and magazines). Many of these involve ancient grains and traditional Asian foods that consumers view as less processed and more nutrient-rich. Healing spices such as holy basil (native to India and used in Hindu religious tradition) and tumeric are at Stage No. 1, just now being incorporated in energy bars and teas.
...
http://www.bakingbusiness.com/Features/Formulating%20and%20R%20and%20D/2011/2/Niche%20Trend.aspx?NewsLetter=true
We are inclined to think that we will see sideways congestion or a bit of a bounce, but that there may be more selling later in the week ahead of the Irish elections. This move down doesn't feel done yet, but shorts aren't bold enough to stay short overnight, so it will develop slowly.
Nice Bond Report....
Also, "chicks dig the long ball."
The Long Ball
We hope that all our friends enjoyed their TLT 90 Mar calls and TLT 94 June calls and other such amusements today.
Hi boys !!
TLT Calls 03-011
90.00 TLT110319C00090000 1.68 0.72 1.67 1.69 3,023 10,871
91.00 TLT110319C00091000 1.16 0.56 1.14 1.18 1,700 9,079
92.00 TLT110319C00092000 0.77 0.39 0.77 0.80 1,418 9,761
93.00 TLT110319C00093000 0.52 0.27 0.49 0.53 1,200 4,029
94.00 TLT110319C00094000 0.32 0.17 0.32 0.33 1,619 8,491
06-011
89.00 TLT110618C00089000 3.45 0.77 3.40 3.50 931 2,224
90.00 TLT110618C00090000 2.80 0.49 2.92 2.97 99 1,904
91.00 TLT110618C00091000 2.47 0.67 2.46 2.49 833 6,449
92.00 TLT110618C00092000 1.98 0.43 2.05 2.09 386 1,699
93.00 TLT110618C00093000 1.70 0.52 1.70 1.75 274 1,164
94.00 TLT110618C00094000 1.17 0.16 1.41 1.46 5 761
95.00 TLT110618C00095000 1.15 0.29 1.16 1.20 165 2,717
96.00 TLT110618C00096000 0.95 0.24 0.96 0.99 48 7,055
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT&m=2011-06
Fixxy,
I had peep asking, today, "what brand of Crystal Ball do you use?"
Gracias~! for pointing those out..
was liking the 'look' of that TLT chart ~last week..
also, back to the point, from earlier threads, ~"if you're going to be right, you might as well get Paid."
AAIP
AR,
You check out the Daily on the Silver candlestick today? I'm looking at the May Silver contract for futures...definitely a candidate for a big doji star...maybe even a "shooting star."
Andy T
I had looked at it earlier when I was choosing which charts to put in the post. The lower shadow/tail is too long for a shooting star (s/b <10% of high-low). Plus the previous day wasn't a "long day". So, to me, it's a bullish short day. The upper shadow/hair is pretty long and probably due to Blythe and others who were thinking about margin calls.
But this market has a tendency to spite TA & FA.
Andy T
more...
A quick scan back to 2007 (daily chart) sees three precursors to silver reversals. A dark cloud cover, bearish engulfing or opening lower.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/corn-stockpiles-falling-to-1974-lows-as-farmers-fail-to-meet-demand-growth.html
Farmers Fail to Meet Demand as Corn Stockpiles Drop to 1974 Low
Closing below weekly 3LB mid this early in the week.
example: You skated out onto the frozen pond thinking it was safe. You hear some ice cracking after you stopped (aka closing below mid). You have to get back to land before falling in (aka close the week above the mid or else). So at Fridays close is it "Whew I made it!" or "Somebody call 911!!!"
AR.. understatement of the year: "But this market has a tendency to spite TA & FA." lots of charts above.. thanks for putting it all out there...
and also thanks to "AT" for his perfect weekend picks.. aapl, gold, and the S&P!
i'm still reading this market as I did the magus when i was a young girl.. i knew it was over my head, but i kept trying to figure it out..
LOOK whom i'm going to see on the fifth!!!
Gustavo the Great!! I'm dying..
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=3841774n&tag=related;photovideo
YGTBFKM: http://tinyurl.com/4vbuca2
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner blasts UK's 'costly' light-touch regulation
In a rare moment of public criticism from a leading US policy maker, Mr Geithner said that authorities in Britain had "ran a strategy for a long time called 'light-touch approach to financial regulation' that was consciously designed to pull financial activity from New York and from Frankfurt and Paris to London".
At least the UK had a light touch. Our regulators grabbed their ankles.
SPX fair value around 1313. Futures showing 1318. Damn.
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