Three different topics were covered in this week's "Commentary:" Apple, the S&P 500 and Gold.
Short Story Longer on APPLE:
Apple's stock is showing rather sharp Daily RSI divergence. Given it's "special place" as vanguard of this bull move, this stock needs to be watched closely. Medium Term support comes in at the $323-326 zone. This will be the "battlezone" for bulls and bears.
CNBC ran one of their useless audience "Poll Questions" on Friday:
"What's your favorite tech stock, other than Apple?" They then listed five different companies you could pick.
Think about what that question implies...
It reminds me VERY MUCH of the time that Tiger Woods was winning almost every tournament and Major he entered. Whenever I did "Golf pools" to pick the Top Finishers in a Major, the rules always were you had to exclude Tiger Woods from your slate of picks, "because everyone is going to pick Tiger to win." In other words, there was a time when golfing "talking heads" would pose the question: "If you had to pick someone to win the Major, other than Tiger Woods, who would you pick?"
So, is Apple the Tiger Woods* of Tech Stocks?
As with most things in life, that question will be answered in the "fullness of time."
* In case there are some non-golfers out there, Tiger Woods is no longer an elite golfer who is favored to win every tournament he enters. It's very difficult to maintain an extremely high caliber of competitiveness over longer periods of time--the body tends to break down and then the mind yields to the pressures. Additionally, new competitors (some who copied Tiger's swing) inevitably enter the field in search of the big money and glory.
Hmmm....
Perhaps there might be something to an Apple/Tiger Woods analogy.....
40 comments:
the AAPL 'story' is interesting...
seems like an apt comparison to TW, as well..
also, that "Price/RSI"-divergence-Chart should be a 'bell-ringer'/'eye-opener', at least, for the perma-Longs/AAPL fanbois..
and, those 'last' Candles look like S***...
March '011 Puts
330.00 AAPL110319P00330000 4.80 2.19 4.75 4.80 7,381 13,603
335.00 AAPL110319P00335000 5.85 2.85 5.85 6.00 6,285 26,337
340.00 AAPL110319P00340000 7.30 3.45 7.20 7.30 13,657 35,292
are those going to get Paid? would seem unlikely...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AAPL&m=2011-03
Q: , above, from this idea..
http://www.optionpain.com/CurrentPain/Current-Pain-demo.php
AAIP
I'm sure that as soon as they re-introduce the "NEWTON", the stock will soar to $1000...
insightful post, fellows.. laughing because it so reminded me of Chet, and I now see he was co-author.
a bit of weakening in future land this evening..
@karen
I didn't "co-author"...
I've just been too lazy to ever organize the content of this blog since I got it started so all posts have that stamp on them...
I'm not like the other guys that spend all their time tracking down the IP numbers of ANON posters...
Come on this blog and say what you want...
What CV has to say is...
"Silver bitchez"... "Nickles bitches"... "Seeds bitchez"... And see??? What good did saying that ever get me???
Simply ridicule...
Oh well - I'll go back to my seeds now...
@Andy
So... you "top ticked" $32 on that stash?...
Try $34.26 tonight...
Want to 'take the other side' of that "$50 vs. $21" bet we were discussing last night?
I did think the Tiger-Aapl comparison had your stamp on it, but i'll concede that it could have been all "andy"
anyway, i've been on the long side of a fat gold ramp in the overnight before, only to see it all gone by morning.
maybe it will be different this time.
@karen
Whatcha payin at the pump these days?... Over $4???
Maybe you ought to 'fill up' this evening before the placards change tomorrow...
WTI
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/von%20havenstein/WTI%202.21.jpg
CV's "long standing" theory of crazy "PM" moves on holiday weekends (where the "holiday" is only on one side of the pond or another), rings true this weekend...
Actually, I "STOLE" that theory from Hugh Hendry about a decade ago...
Post of the day (from a ZH poster) on the WTI rip...
---
by Ragnarok
on Mon, 02/21/2011 - 16:16
#982794
Consumer spending and credit card use will be up! BTFR!
ROR
Chet, 3.79-3.80 (chevron) for premium just yesterday.. my nearest costco is about 3.70, interestingly enuf.
@karen
I'll ask you the same question tomorrow...
might be time to start putting a little ACETONE into the tank (if things get desperate)...
don't "spill it" on the paint tho!
Re: Hussman
I can't tell whether the majority of ppl really think the guy isn't a great investor, but risk adjusted, his returns have been nothing less than fantastic. I know it's easy to pull up a two year chart and say how did he miss this run, but anyone with a grounding in stats has to know that any fundamentally driven, slow money investor is going to lose to the market over periods of years. The question is how risk controlled is he and how much is he getting paid for his risk. On both accounts, hussman is near the top in my mind.
Viva la long bond.
a petite rally in the dollar, correlating with a slim sell off in futures indices..
speaking of 'distillate' costs..
'round these parts, good 'ol 87 is ~3.17.9
the dude that was, previously, at the Pump, that I pulled up to, had pumped himself 1.572 Gallons for U$D 5.00 ..
most all the 'Fuel', generally available, is watered back w/ '10% Ethanol' ...
ibid.
cv--,
Posted 12/2/2010 Printable Fact Sheet
Mission
The RQ-170 is a low observable unmanned aircraft system (UAS) being developed, tested and fielded by the Air Force. It will provide reconnaissance and surveillance in support of the joint forces commander.
Background
The Air Force's RQ-170 program leverages the Lockheed Martin Advanced Development Programs and government efforts to rapidly develop and produce a low observable UAS. The RQ-170 will directly support combatant commander needs for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to locate targets.
The RQ-170 is flown by Air Combat Command's 432nd Wing at Creech Air Force Base, Nev., and the 30th Reconnaissance Squadron at Tonopah Test Range, Nev.
Point of Contact
Office of the Secretary of the Air Force, Directorate of Public Affairs, 1690 Air Force Pentagon, Washington, D.C. 20030-1690; 703-695-0640.
http://www.af.mil/information/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=16001
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Lockheed+Martin+RQ-170+drone
ibid.
re: Argent
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/argent
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-failure.html
@cv. The goal was not to "top tick" Silver by any stretch of the imagination...
I'm diversifying into nickels...
It seems pretty clear that Silver will want to try and go for the Hunt Bros. highs of 1980...$35.70-$41.50/oz.
I actually started the process of selling about 2K worth of Silver rolls yday...I got $13.85/1964 Kennedy Halves today....So, because of the nature of selling these things via 24 auctions, I definitely got lucky...
Seriously, if I had someone come to me and say: "Look, I'm long XXX Silver...been holding for speculative/inflation reasons. What should I do here." I would have to advise letting "some" go into the Hunt Brothers high. I really think there will be some psychological selling pressure just above here.
So, my "bet" would be we see high 30's..maybe even a 41.50 "tick," but that this thing takes a "breather" from there.
If Silver takes out the 41.50 highs, then there's Wave room up to 56, then 67.
LB likes JG..
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/insight-of-the-day-jeffrey-gundlach-on-muni-bonds/
So, oil is off a smooth $2bucks from the highs....nice.
another NZ/Christchurch earthquake:
Multiple aftershocks reported in Christchurch; city runs out of ambulances - 3news.co.nz http://bit.ly/i8lArC
OOC (out of curiosity) when was Nickel ever a 'Monetary Metal'?
but, as I said b4, if one is going w/ the 'Nickel Hedge', I'd be wanting a 1/2 dozen decent Drill Bits to go with them..
or, one could, always, go this way..
http://www.apartmenttherapy.com/sf/how-to/nickel-tile-floor-a-seattle-bathroom-renovation-127976
(please note, just funnin', don't, really, care what peep do with theirs..)
AAIP
http://www.instructables.com/id/Use-Coins-as-Washers/
Dollar up stocks down correlation has been reestablished.
I still can't believe the market was green on Friday. I mean, who was actually buying going into this weekend? The middle east/north africa is actively being set on fire by mobs of angry peasants. Of course, we'll probably bounce after a little sell off tomorrow morning. How many S&P points down do you think it will be before some pundit says "fears are overblown"? I'll take 5. Buying opportunity of a lifetime...
Beautiful charts as always Andy.
spoonman
ES already 15 points or more down. I hope folks aren't using stop limits because it's going to get Evil Knieveled.
Ra -
Futures don't count.
No stop limits here(right now). Picked up a few puts on Friday and took some pain for my troubles. Awaiting the flush/bounce sequence with eager anticipation.
an evil Knieveling would be exciting, though...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-21/record-u-s-cattle-hog-prices-seen-on-shrinking-herds-increased-demand.html
people may care to pay attention to 'animal'-Prices..
a side of Beef, in the Freezer, could turn out to be one of one's better 'investments'..
in re: Nickel and Copper Prices. One of the reasons I thought there would be a psychological ceiling to Copper at ~4bucks was because of the Peso/Penny "arb." Obviously, there isn't enough Penny's and peso's in the world to sate demand when some country really wants some Copper.
So, now Copper has taken out the 4.00 barrier decisively now. As long as that metal remains above 4.00, it looks very bullish to me.
So, I'm not sure Nickels (75%Copper/25% Nickel) will every be a "monetary metal," but with a current melt value of 7.3c per Jefferson Nickel, I really don't mind accumulating $2k worth of nickels. For whatever reason, the Randall's groceries stories here are very accomodating when it comes to giving the rolls...
@11.34
Perhaps the trade is: Sell Junk Silver; Buy a Side of Beef and come charcoal.....tide one over for the summer BBQ season.
spoonman@10.53.
Thanks for that.
oops on gold and silver.. not sure if anyone read my 8:39 "anyway, i've been on the long side of a fat gold ramp in the overnight before, only to see it all gone by morning."
Andy @ 12:03, i'm with you on "the trade" if we can substitute Ahi for beef : )
>> It reminds me VERY MUCH of the time that Tiger Woods
Very good observation, Andy.
AT,
have you done any, recent, work on Oil?
have any belief in U$D 150-200+ / Oil ?
and, coming by June?
AAIP
@Andy (12:03) Anon (11:34)
I'm with you on that... BEEF...
Been there done that already... Really just replacing the "stock" going back to 2008 (which has been under deep freeze since then (and still tastes just as fresh as the day it was put in)...
Anyway - I'll give you all some hints (about buying beef) if you're interested (because despite the food I grow, I'm at the grocery store about 4 times a week (just 'shopping', you know - usually with the intention of buying something like a few grapefruits and things like that)... I ALWAYS wander by the meat section to see what's on sale...
I have finally seen a noticeable uptick just about ACROSS THE BOARD (not only on meat types, but also cuts)...
- Whole Roaster Chickens
- Breasts
- Assorted other pieces
- Pork loins
- Bacon
- Chops
- Spare Ribs
- Baby Back Ribs
- Eye of Rounds
- Filets
- Ground Beef
- Ribeyes
- Sirloins
- Briskets
Here's the short-ish story...
- I do most of my shopping for these at either BJ's/Costco/or Giant... If I can, I like Giant because they have a REWARDS program where you can get up to 30% off on gas at Shell... So every little bit helps...
- For almost 3 years, I didn't see a noticeable change on anything (prices)...
- Recently, all the "base" prices on JUST ABOUT everything have gone up (mostly the BEEF)...
- The best (and most useable VALUE) you basically still get are with the PORK LOINS and WHOLE CHICKENS... (Around $1.99 a pound for the PORK LIONS & 99 cents a pound for the WHOLE ROASTER CHICKENS)...
- Living in Italy, I learned how to use ALL of these (but here in America people are lazy about cooking so it seems they tend to avoid these)... I'm guessing that's why they stay on the shelf and the prices stay relatively low
- Ironically, when it comes to BEEF, it's the more EXPENSIVE cuts that tend to get a "markdown" every once in a while... For the life of me, I can't remember getting FILETS for under $9.99 a pound, then, after Christmas, all of a sudden BJ's had them marked down to $7.99...
- That only lasted a week, as they're back up to $9.99... It goes to show you though... Go snooping around JUST after holidays (as they "stock up" - then have to clear inventory)
- It's kind of "seasonal" that way... BEEF after Christmas, Chicken & Ribs after Memorial Day & 4th of July... Yada yada... Easter & Labor Day are other good holidays... Thanksgiving too, but interestingly, "baking" items (flour, brown sugar, etc. are cheap then)...
- Also, GROUND BEEF is rarely on sale... I'd be afraid to buy it anyway because of what I believe is being put in it these days... I'd just "grind my own"...
Probably the best POUND FOR POUND meats out there are PORK LOINS & WHOLE CHICKENS... Pork LOINS because they are boneless and mostly all lean meat (to eat)... WHOLE CHICKENS are cheapest, but some of that is skin & bones (but they stretch a long way because of making soup & stock)...
BEEF WISE... The FILETS & RIBEYES are the opposite sides of the T-BONE... So in a steakhouse, they cook that up (which has a tenderloin on one side and your basic New York strip on the other)... Package wise, you find better deals on either one or the other... Probably more "bang for the buck" actually buying the FILETS (because 90% of people see they're the highest price and avoid them)... If they're PREPPED into medallions, you can pay as high as $17.99 a pound (which I saw the other day)... I was like, "WTF" (because I'd just bought about 30 pounds of them at $7.99)...
Anyway - If anyone is looking to stock a freezer, that's the way to go...
I do this partially to save money... But partially because of the fear that in times like these (where everyone around the world starts freaking out because of revolutions and stuff)... Well - my guess is that hardly any people have any of these things in freezers in their homes right now...
So if they all decide to run to the store tomorrow, not only might I NOT be finding any $7.99 deals on FILETS, I might not find any FILETS at all...
I suppose there's always "Chick Fil-a"... I suppose...
BTW
Pork Loins - Americans have not much creativity about... They think of it just as ending up as an average pork roast...
But I like to do a lot of Asian style things (like dim sum/potstickers), fried rice, pork lo mein, etc... So they're PERFECT (and inexpensive for those dishes)... Better because they also go perfectly with other basic vegetables that one can grow at home (carrots, cabbage, herbs, etc.)...
Beats dropping a hundo at "PF Changs" anyway...
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