TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.25.11

Morning Corner 2.25.11

New Highs New Lows

Even though the SPX and Dow closed lower there were more new highs than new lows. That might more to do with the late push in the afternoon. Dip buyers? Knife catchers? Nothing wrong with trying to fake the bullish case…not that there is anything wrong with that ;-)

Comparative Currency Performance

From 2007 (pre GFC) to present. Obviously Gold (+101.48%) has outperformed all fiat currencies. Hard to believe the Yen (+43.66%) is doing better than the Swiss Franc (+32.12%). The laggard is DXY (-8.90%).

90 Day Treasury

From what I see here the Fed will not be raising rates anytime soon. ZIRP forever.

I've uncovered an unknown Nostradamus document. It said the identities of those pictured are The Fed, Bank of England, ECB and IMF.

243 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 243 Newer› Newest»

AmenRa said...: I still don't know why futures are higher. Smells of desperation.; February 25, 2011 at 8:29 AM
Ben22 said...: CV,

went to bed kind of early last night and didn't see your post, but yeah, it's def. a bromance, ROR.

here's one of the primary issues I've considered about the Hard Asset militia is

If you have a lot of gold, or silver, or nickels. Lets say you've got $450k of any one of those.

you aren't very mobile

if the shit really hits the fan, I think mobility will be important

Maybe I've just seen too many movies and those images are stuck in my mind but in true crisis I'm not sure of many examples of where you can just stay put and not have any issues, unless maybe you are in the far northern part of Canada, or in the woods in Alaska somewhere.; February 25, 2011 at 8:40 AM
CV said...: It said the identities of those pictured are The Fed, Bank of England, ECB and IMF

Well then "eff you" & the horse you rode in on! :-); February 25, 2011 at 8:41 AM
BinT said...: TBT today, Lefty?; February 25, 2011 at 8:47 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.whenshtf.com/showthread.php?38524-US-Warns-Extreme-Food-Prices-Will-Stay

US Warns Extreme Food Prices Will Stay

...Last week unleaded was 2.97. Filled up yesterday morning at 3.12. Late afternoon 3.15 at the lowest place in town...

...Interesting times..; February 25, 2011 at 8:58 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

Grill Baby Grill!; February 25, 2011 at 9:01 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

Aren't you glad that you have that "Hamstermobile"! :-); February 25, 2011 at 9:02 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: CV:

You should read the comments on the above post. Garden planting fools, I mean!

for a minute I thought it was a garden site..... :); February 25, 2011 at 9:02 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

Yeah... I can't wait to see everyone put a "topsy turvy" tomato plant on their back porch...

Yield???... Probably about a two dozen or so 3 ounce tomatoes (for the whole growing season)... (roughly 15 calories each)...

24 X 15 = 360 calories TOTAL YIELD

---

That's about enough to get you thru breakfast for one day (if you're on a diet)...

ROR; February 25, 2011 at 9:11 AM
CV said...: tilapia bitchez!; February 25, 2011 at 9:12 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: CV:

We are planting a bigger garden this year too, but February is too early here. The Prius is great, and you don't have to put the 2k 220 charging system in that is required of the all electric vehicles...although that can be circumvented..but requires a lot longer charging time.

I wasn't sure I'd like the little car, but it handles great. I filled up for 21 bucks yesterday, and the guy in the v8 truck behind me just stared at the pump when I left..made me grin..; February 25, 2011 at 9:13 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

When it eventually conks out you can convert it to a planter! :-P; February 25, 2011 at 9:17 AM
CV said...: Looks like UPRO did a stock split...; February 25, 2011 at 9:19 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: or a hottub...; February 25, 2011 at 9:19 AM
CV said...: I guess it was getting too expensive for bulltards to JBTFD...; February 25, 2011 at 9:20 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: UPRO might be the worst investment possible at market turns...; February 25, 2011 at 9:20 AM
karen said...: good morning!! loved the morning post!! everything is up today, and nothing down lower than 1%.. we must be living in a perfect world..; February 25, 2011 at 9:21 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: IF this is a market turn...

give me a minute on the tea leaves...; February 25, 2011 at 9:21 AM
karen said...: Bruce.. you don't think the market is turning do you.. JBTFD; February 25, 2011 at 9:22 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

Hottub!!! Now you're talking...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5LaCZsynnQ; February 25, 2011 at 9:22 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: We had a storm with wind last night..wasn't worried until one of the neightbor's cows went flying by the bedroom window...when you live on the top of a little mountain the wind can be, uh, worrisome..; February 25, 2011 at 9:25 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: A couple of points:

US GDP is 14.7 T
QE2 is 0.6 T

QE2 is therefore 4% of GDP. We have a +2.8% increase.

So BB is masking a 1.2% deflation.
Turning Japanese, indeed.; February 25, 2011 at 9:27 AM
CV said...: @ben (8:40)

I don't see any point in "mobility"...

Why make it harder on yourself than it already is? You put a stake in the ground and try to do the best that you can...

If you're lucky, you can "co-op" a small group (or tribe)...

If worse came to worse, you "Jesse James" your stash (and come back for it later)...; February 25, 2011 at 9:28 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Completely agree with AR. ZIRP forever.

NOBODY ESCAPES THE ZERO BOUND.
4 or 5% GDP required to exit the event horizon.
But gravity is too strong.....; February 25, 2011 at 9:29 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Oh, Lefty....Karen says she loves it when you start cipherin'.....; February 25, 2011 at 9:29 AM
AmenRa said...: AUDJPY is up while EURJPY is down. This will not be easy for the bulls. One false step and whoosh!; February 25, 2011 at 9:30 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

Better "cows" than Miss Gulch!; February 25, 2011 at 9:31 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The bond market has four alternatives:

1) Self-sustaining recovery, front end 4%, rear end 5%
2) Turning Japanese, front end ZIRPed, rear end 2%
3) New Normal, more or less where we are, 1% 2y and 3% 10y.
4) Armageddon, rear end in hyperspace.

The bond market is pretty smart, and it is voting for 3) with a chance of 2) and a tiny probability of 1).; February 25, 2011 at 9:32 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Amen. I agree fully with your 9:30. Many more stresses than 3 months ago...; February 25, 2011 at 9:32 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Can we bet the trifecta, Lefty?; February 25, 2011 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: How about the "quinella?"; February 25, 2011 at 9:37 AM
AmenRa said...: WFC upgraded to a conviction buy by GS.

"Turn those machines back on!"; February 25, 2011 at 9:38 AM
Anonymous said...: for ben-

"BOB PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows"

http://tinyurl.com/4f33kh6

gotta roll out . . .; February 25, 2011 at 9:42 AM
ben22 said...: Leftback,

9:29

would 4 or 5% GDP do it?

Nominal GDP in Japan was over that several times in the past 20 years if I'm not mistaken, yet there they still are.

The Zero Bound is a bottomless pit.

I think this is part of the reason the NLY makes sense.; February 25, 2011 at 9:46 AM
ben22 said...: I don't think Prechter is right about that ahab

we might get close but I think the March 09 lows will hold.; February 25, 2011 at 9:47 AM
bob said...: Good read by Bronte

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/02/small-hedge-fund-managers-lament.html; February 25, 2011 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: silver is looking h&sy on the 5 min and hourly.. over at finviz..; February 25, 2011 at 9:54 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41764727

Market Falling Because of Math, Not Middle East

“It’s a bunch of servers pinging each other,” said Reggie Middleton, editor of BoomBustBlog.com. “The market nowadays is dominated by the same traders at the same five banks that went to the same business schools which taught them the same quantitative trading programs.”

...very acerbic; February 25, 2011 at 9:55 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: would 4 or 5% GDP do it?

Only if sustained for a year or more.

Nominal GDP in Japan was over that several times in the past 20 years if I'm not mistaken, yet there they still are.

They only did it for one or two quarters.

The Zero Bound is a bottomless pit.

Correct.

I think this is part of the reason the NLY makes sense.

Yes. All the dull, world not ending plays make sense.; February 25, 2011 at 9:55 AM
Anonymous said...: EURUSD doing enough on the down side to make me smile.
Should help Karen take silver down too....

(imagines K in silver panties and 5 inch heels...)

waits for yellow card...; February 25, 2011 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: bob, i've gotta read that but you've gotta watch this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iWVBF61tLI&feature=player_embedded; February 25, 2011 at 9:57 AM
karen said...: The second we go red, I'll put my red shoes up (and black french panties); but don't hold your breath..; February 25, 2011 at 9:59 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

Anyway... My point was (from your 9:02)...

9 out of 10 people can't even grow a friggin "Chia Pet"...; February 25, 2011 at 10:02 AM
ben22 said...: Ahab,

I will point out though that at least Prechter understands how to read sentiment data properly.

Take note all the people saying that the big one week drop in bulls on AAII is "bullish" for stocks because it's a contrary indicator.

The 10 week average, as he shows in that video, shows higher bulls/bear ratio than what we had at the peak in 2007 at the all time nominal highs.

You can decide which is more important.; February 25, 2011 at 10:04 AM
Anonymous said...: (holding breath......); February 25, 2011 at 10:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Take note all the people saying that the big one week drop in bulls on AAII is "bullish" for stocks because it's a contrary indicator.

only very short term bullish....; February 25, 2011 at 10:05 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

LB being the 1 in 10 who can... I've heard he has them scattered all around his flat in Manhattan! :-); February 25, 2011 at 10:06 AM
karen said...: oooh.. some of us can be glad we exited EDZ when we did.. it'll be a buy again soon.; February 25, 2011 at 10:07 AM
karen said...: Consumer sentiment rises to three-year high: Univ. of Mich.
02/25/2011 10:05:12 AM; February 25, 2011 at 10:07 AM
karen said...: I can only imagine LB having banana plants..; February 25, 2011 at 10:09 AM
The Bernank said...: Yes we have no banana (plants); February 25, 2011 at 10:10 AM
Banana Ben said...: But we can print them as needed; February 25, 2011 at 10:11 AM
ben22 said...: would 4 or 5% GDP do it?

Only if sustained for a year or more.

ROR

Average Annual GDP from 1975-1999 in the US was 3.2% and that was during the greatest expansion of credit ever, anywhere.

good luck to us getting to 4-5% sustained....; February 25, 2011 at 10:12 AM
CV said...: I hear Orange County housewives are good at growing "IM"plants...; February 25, 2011 at 10:13 AM
ben22 said...: Anon,

10:05

there's no statistical evidence that a one week drop in one single sentiment survey, or all of them, means anything for the short term.

i'd suggest a look back at the 2002 and 2008 years an AAII, tell me if those large one week drops were short term bullish on those years.

sentiment is only secondary, and the larger established trend in sentiment is the one that matters, unless you have some figures to prove otherwise.; February 25, 2011 at 10:14 AM
spoonman said...: Interesting: Mish on JGB's. Not with a bang, but with a wimper.; February 25, 2011 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: cursing the aussie right now..

jjc in a bounce before resuming lower? i think so..making its right shoulder as a matter of fact.. of course, above 59 and i'm changing that theory..

who was the genius that bot upro yesterday when spx was sub 1300 ?? Tepper is ridiculing us now.; February 25, 2011 at 10:20 AM
karen said...: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2011/0228/investing-gary-shilling-financial-strategy-hard-times.html

The current shock and awe over China parallels the fear and admiration of Japan in the late 1980s. Back then many Americans believed they'd soon be run out of business by Japanese firms or end up working for them.; February 25, 2011 at 10:22 AM
18 said...: Here's some stats b22...

1296 is a 18, 36 and 54 multiple... just saying

Still have a 1375 (+ or - a few) target on the major 18's.; February 25, 2011 at 10:27 AM
karen said...: guys.. please stop the world (but don't melt) i need to be gone for 20 min..

thank you 18! I love it when you chime in : ); February 25, 2011 at 10:28 AM
wunsacon said...: >> It said the identities of those pictured are The Fed, Bank of England, ECB and IMF.

Sure it's not Reagan, Clinton, Dubya, Obama?

Ok. How 'bout Charlie Sheen, Lindsay Lohan, Tiger Woods, and Justin Beiber?; February 25, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Backhoe Billy said...: This week was just a little backfill before we build this pile higher!; February 25, 2011 at 10:41 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: By the way, when I sold my treasuries a day or two ago, I bought non-callable 10 year cd's at 3.7 with all of it. So, if I really thought we were headed for long-term inflation, I assure you I would not have done so. But I do keep my mind open for different ideas, and sometimes when I think people are too narrowly focused, I may argue the other side of the debate....

That said, I will convince CV to buy one of these little Prius thingys...just wait!; February 25, 2011 at 10:45 AM
I-Man said...: I'd be all about those CDs if I had a pile of cash to put in em...; February 25, 2011 at 10:47 AM
I-Man said...: Not 10yr tho...; February 25, 2011 at 10:47 AM
I-Man said...: Have a feeling we're gonna be in for some great CD rates in the years ahead...; February 25, 2011 at 10:48 AM
I-Man said...: Trade the equity, commodity, bond, and currency markets for money, stash the money in high quality bank paper at a modest rate...

Thats the I strategy.; February 25, 2011 at 10:49 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I-Man:

I now like to be able to know what my income in say, two years, will be. It allows me the safety of making riskier bets if I wish and if the time comes. I wouldn't have considered this 15 years ago, but now it makes sense to me at least, as I contemplate what I'd like to do in the next 5 years or so. ..just cash flow at a rate I can live with..; February 25, 2011 at 10:53 AM
I-Man said...: That and building my farm and herd of livestock... theres a jet boat in there somewheres, and a bow.; February 25, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/britain-s-economy-contracts-more-than-estimated-as-boe-divide-on-remedies.html

Britain's Economy Contracts More Than Estimated

...Lefty spent most of his money in the colonies...; February 25, 2011 at 10:54 AM
I-Man said...: Understood, Bruce.

I dont doubt your ability to secure cash flow, or live comfortably modest in a valley in East Tennessee.; February 25, 2011 at 10:54 AM
Anonymous said...: SPX 1318.89 is roughly 50% of the hi-lo last few days...; February 25, 2011 at 10:54 AM
AmenRa said...: Anon

The weekly 3LB mid is 1-3-1-8-1-3.

Can't make it easy for the algos...; February 25, 2011 at 11:10 AM
I-Man said...: There is an insanely huge upside trade setting up here...

The next meaningful pullback on the 1min chart is the one I'm going to bid.; February 25, 2011 at 11:10 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Dern Canadians!

Exporting more cold air to Tennesse this weekend. Surely they will run out soon enough..; February 25, 2011 at 11:14 AM
Anonymous said...: ...Lefty spent most of his money in the colonies...

Karen has very expensive taste in panties....; February 25, 2011 at 11:16 AM
karen said...: fun and games still on! I barely missed a thing..

'cept this: Fed takes down $7.24 billion during POMO. $23.97 billion submitted.; February 25, 2011 at 11:17 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Effing NZT still struggling under the rubble. Poor Christchurch, my best wishes go out to the Kiwis every day, as well as my investment.; February 25, 2011 at 11:18 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Today's POMO 7-10y.

Tsys are fairly steady here - a 4.51 on the long bond.
Remember we now have 4.60 as the top of our trading range.

Nobody will short Ts until Ghaddafi is pushing up the daisies.
Doubt we will see selling until middle of next week.; February 25, 2011 at 11:20 AM
karen said...: spx under 1320 is not going anywhere but down..

the person that tweeted this may have foot in mouth by the close: "For those of you who opted to sell short the market yesterday, clamoring for it to collapse: enjoy your dickless torso this weekend."; February 25, 2011 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: if nzt bounces next week, you might opt out of that one.. lol! you KNOW what i am dying to say, but i won't !!; February 25, 2011 at 11:22 AM
I-Man said...: Here's the pullback...; February 25, 2011 at 11:27 AM
Anonymous said...: "For those of you who opted to sell short the market yesterday, clamoring for it to collapse: enjoy your dickless torso this weekend."

That has to be someone young and stupid. But whatever. Tools can be amusing. Not that we ourselves are short. Or Dickless.

In fact we are Long.

We hold NZT, and added to our core this week, but this is a bit of falling knife activity and we intend to mainly trade around the core holding. The strategy usually works b/c the yields of these divvys are eventually irresistible to value investors. Stops are in, though...!; February 25, 2011 at 11:28 AM
karen said...: that last ten min down in dia and spy was done on volume..; February 25, 2011 at 11:31 AM
I-Man said...: LMAO...

Who said that, LB?; February 25, 2011 at 11:33 AM
Anonymous said...: No idea, K found it on Twitter, love those 22 y-o permabulls.; February 25, 2011 at 11:35 AM
karen said...: okay, i-man, i-too can see a bullish set up in the works.. but, i'm not sure there are enuf gung-ho buyers at these prices.. exhaustion and precaution may win today.; February 25, 2011 at 11:36 AM
I-Man said...: The risk/reward is good...; February 25, 2011 at 11:37 AM
I-Man said...: You think this market is going to let anyone still short from yesterday out this easy?; February 25, 2011 at 11:38 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41763051

Cramer: Don't Let Oil Futures Change Your Game Plan

..The article is typical Cramer. Don't waste your retinas...but the comment below is priceless:

pjkdenver | Feb 24, 2011 08:24 PM ET

Cramer definitely knows a lot, but he's also hard to trust when he has two links, one right below the other like this:

Cramer: $4 Gas Could Lead to Double Dip
Cramer: Don't Let Oil Futures Change Your Game Plan

Now, that's diversified; February 25, 2011 at 11:38 AM
Anonymous said...: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/QID/tab/2

I think the dude who did this research should be fired-

let's see China and India have the largest populations on the planet, followed by the USA-

so not a tough extrapolation based on population numbers alone- so easy a 5th grader could do it (so why not just hire a 5th grader?)

but that makes the super broad assumption that China's and India's populations will prosper- and that all the hinterland rural folk become good middle class consumers (and all the issues that places on resources and demand)-

I'll guess we'll have to just wait and see . . .; February 25, 2011 at 11:41 AM
I-Man said...: Getting closer...

Just a few more jiggles...; February 25, 2011 at 11:42 AM
bob said...: K, had to go out for a moment...

Are you trying to tell me I can't dance?; February 25, 2011 at 11:44 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: It also assumes, let's see, that the minority Muslim population will accept little things like, well, women in the workplace or even bosses, that in China there won't be a severe disruption from, say, a population that tires of communism,......just to start.; February 25, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Cold Steel said...: You think this market is going to let anyone still short from yesterday out this easy?

Heh heh heh.....; February 25, 2011 at 11:46 AM
I-Man said...: Taking a shot here... might be one more stop lower tho.

But I'll take a shot at this one just in case...; February 25, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Anonymous said...: China there won't be a severe disruption from, say, a population that tires of communism

They will be fucking sick of capitalism after the RE market crashes and takes the banks down with it. Apts in China = 100 x average salaries. Things that make you go hmmm....; February 25, 2011 at 11:48 AM
karen said...: As UMichigan Finds Confidence At 3 Year High, Rasmussen Says Investor Confidence Plunges To 2011 Lows http://is.gd/UjsL5f; February 25, 2011 at 11:48 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "Not that we ourselves are short. Or Dickless."

...We never would accuse you of being short, Lefty.; February 25, 2011 at 11:50 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Yeah, but capitalists usually have people actually live in cities they build....; February 25, 2011 at 11:52 AM
I-Man said...: The Chinese are capitalist for the duration...; February 25, 2011 at 11:52 AM
18 said...: ""Taking a shot here... might be one more stop lower tho.
But I'll take a shot at this one just in case... ""

It is at 1314, an 18 #, going long on an 18 retrace is a 100% good trade! (54% of the time).; February 25, 2011 at 11:53 AM
Nefarious B.I.D. said...: King Kong ain't got nothin' on me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkNDQD0gkAU; February 25, 2011 at 11:53 AM
Anonymous said...: I-Man @ 11:52-

qualify that broad assumption-

unless you're joking . . .; February 25, 2011 at 11:55 AM
I-Man said...: I'll take 54%...

:); February 25, 2011 at 11:55 AM
karen said...: Economic Burn
TOWN WITH 20K RESIDENTS IN NEW JERSEY HAS $147 MILLION IN DEBT!
http://bit.ly/ecMnCt; February 25, 2011 at 11:55 AM
I-Man said...: Not joking at all...

Democracy and capitalism arent going away in China.

They have only just begun.; February 25, 2011 at 11:56 AM
Anonymous said...: ...We never would accuse you of being short, Lefty.

We are short Euro today but that's all.
The liquidity tide is still flowing.
Gushing, really, would be the best description.; February 25, 2011 at 11:57 AM
Anonymous said...: TOWN WITH 20K RESIDENTS IN NEW JERSEY HAS $147 MILLION IN DEBT!

UFB, you can see now why Meredith W is right and munis are a cesspool. I mean think of your local weasels and how corrupt and venal they are. Then think of them issuing a bond..... no wonder she has been savaged. She will win though.; February 25, 2011 at 11:58 AM
Anonymous said...: I-Man-

so forever then?

that's funny

I wonder if Rome thought the same thing . . .; February 25, 2011 at 11:59 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: ..its the Dickless part we're a little confused about....; February 25, 2011 at 12:01 PM
I-Man said...: Forever as far as we're concerned... until something better comes along.; February 25, 2011 at 12:02 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: BTW, NJ, NY, CT and RI have a lotta mayors and financial people with Eyetalian names, so there is no QUESTION about any shred of criminality associated with those members of UPSTANDING FAMILIES.

Avoid MUNIS. Avoid like the plague. Fantastic yields will be the reward for your patience, cynicism and suspicion.; February 25, 2011 at 12:02 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Meredith for SecTreas....; February 25, 2011 at 12:02 PM
Meredith Whitney said...: If you can see one cockroach, there are always thousands....; February 25, 2011 at 12:03 PM
Anonymous said...: NZT surging off long-dated support !!!

Just needed to cheer myself on.; February 25, 2011 at 12:03 PM
I-Man said...: Boning Meredith was about as fun as reading the WSJ...; February 25, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Anonymous said...: "its the Dickless part we're a little confused about.."

On twitter, ZH has brad pitt's torso as their icon. It is more than a little weird.; February 25, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Anonymous said...: so . . .the communist party lays down its arms and walks away peacefully?

and everyone's happy?

no civil war, Tibet doesn't secede, Communist party doesn't start killing unarmed demonstrators?

or are you under the impression they are a democracy now?; February 25, 2011 at 12:07 PM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll out again- all be good; February 25, 2011 at 12:08 PM
karen said...: oh, no! copper!! JJC above 59.. damn, damn, damn; February 25, 2011 at 12:09 PM
karen said...: Nomura: eurozone debt issuance next week will be biggest this year (€29bn). Overwhelmingly core, not periphery - bar one €3bn Spain auction; February 25, 2011 at 12:12 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Lovely chart. You can see the rally in Ts during the summer (leveraged HF entering) and the subsequent retrace (leveraged HF leaving).

http://dshort.com/charts/Treasury-Yield-Snapshot.html?treasuries-FFR-since-2007

Crescenzi was on cnbc this morning - says look for govies in EMs where risk is actually compensated. In fact if global economy slows, yields may fall so you get appreciation as well as a honking yield. The ones he has in mind I am sure are Brazilian govies at 12.5%. We like this idea. Bear in mind that some EMs will blow up so don't go EMB.; February 25, 2011 at 12:14 PM
karen said...: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/manhattan/perv_don_shmear_me_GzYV0fJYoWleFsSTrQyaJK#ixzz1EzRnEfbN

Billionaire Jeffrey Epstein: I'm a sex offender, not a predator; February 25, 2011 at 12:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Nefarious-

great clip! Ahab has now left the building . . .; February 25, 2011 at 12:15 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/aig-says-risk-of-losses-has-increased-on-46-6-billion-muni-bond-portfolio.html

ROFR. AIG may have to take write-downs.

Can't we just kill them? A lot cheaper.; February 25, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Can't we just fire everyone at AIG and just hire back the ones we want?

...Wait, wrong post...; February 25, 2011 at 12:27 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41723432/ns/business-world_business/

'I won't pay' movement spreads across Greece

"ATHENS, Greece — They blockade highway toll booths to give drivers free passage. They cover subway ticket machines with plastic bags so commuters can't pay. Even doctors are joining in, preventing patients from paying fees at state hospitals.

Some call it civil disobedience. Others a freeloading spirit. Either way, Greece's "I Won't Pay" movement has sparked heated debate in a nation reeling from a debt crisis that's forced the government to take drastic austerity measures — including higher taxes, wage and pension cuts, and price spikes in public services."

.....hmmmmm...let's see now. Here in Bernakeville, taxes will have to go up soon and austerity measures WILL be introduced...(See Britain).......hmmmmmmm....; February 25, 2011 at 12:33 PM
karen said...: you know, LB, AIG weekly chart bears a striking resemblance to NZT weekly.; February 25, 2011 at 12:36 PM
karen said...: is this a slow motion day for anyone else??; February 25, 2011 at 12:37 PM
I-Man said...: Compared to the last couple of trading sessions, yes indeed.; February 25, 2011 at 12:38 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: What would John Galt do.....?; February 25, 2011 at 12:39 PM
karen said...: jjc is really something on various time charts! as long as it stays below 59.15 it's bearish, i think..; February 25, 2011 at 12:42 PM
karen said...: Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel says the key to the current market correction is oil. http://j.mp/h0lBtZ; February 25, 2011 at 12:43 PM
Anonymous said...: K

http://www.forexlive.com/169503/all/aud-copper-moving-hand-in-hand-again-trendline-resistance-tested; February 25, 2011 at 12:44 PM
Anonymous said...: Heavy buying of NZT began at 7.68, the December low.
We were in there.... nice to see charts working.

NZ had an quake. NZT has a decent business in a sound country.
AIG are pillocks and thieves and are owned by taxpayers.

We would love EEM 46 next week and then short the piss.; February 25, 2011 at 12:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel says the key to the current market correction is oil.

Amazing insight !!!! ROTFLMAO....; February 25, 2011 at 12:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Siegel - fuckwit.; February 25, 2011 at 12:47 PM
Mrs Siegel said...: Be nice to my Jeremy. He's a good boy.; February 25, 2011 at 12:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Crude Oil 97.21 -0.07 -0.07
Natural Gas 3.974 +0.102 +2.63
Corn 722.00 +25.50 +3.67
Soybeans 1373.00 +43.75 +3.30
30yr Bond 121.75000 +0.21875 +0.18
10yr Note 120.046875 +0.234375 +0.20
NY Gold 1407.4 -8.4 -0.60
NY Silver 33.000 -0.180 -0.56
http://www.ino.com/

Fixxy,

re: NZT

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NZT&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

that Chart looks like G*rbage, no?

and, what's up with that weak-a** Options Chain?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=NZT+Options

AAIP; February 25, 2011 at 12:49 PM
Cold Steel said...: You know how I please you
I am here to SQUEEZE YOU.; February 25, 2011 at 12:50 PM
karen said...: maybe there is a god: Saudi raises oil output as Libyan exports disrupted http://yhoo.it/gsS06R; February 25, 2011 at 12:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Marky,

Go back and look at the DF chart before it bottomed.
That was one of our best falling knives of all time. (+35%)
All we needed was a call to TEPPER. LOL.

He has to be looking at this.
Trade in front of the whales (near the bottom).
Not in front of the steamrollers (at the top).; February 25, 2011 at 12:52 PM
Anonymous said...: maybe there is a god

There must be since you are with us.

also, there is beer.. right I-Man..?; February 25, 2011 at 12:53 PM
karen said...: anon at 12:44, i know! everyone is cursing the aussie today.. some are rethinking their short calls.. quite perplexing all in all!; February 25, 2011 at 12:54 PM
I-Man said...: No Jah, know fear.

Know Jah, no fear.; February 25, 2011 at 12:55 PM
karen said...: okay.. gotta focus on dto now.. as long as it holds 51.. i can make out a bullish pattern into today's close..; February 25, 2011 at 1:00 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Massive snoozer. In bonds especially.

Next week we will have some fun.

PMI and PENDING HOMES - MONDAY
ISM - TUESDAY
ADP - WEDNESDAY
CLAIMS - THURSDAY
NFP - FRIDAY

Plus the fallout from Ireland... EURUSD negative?

All in all, a chance of some DOLLAR POSITIVE and BOND NEUTRAL to NEGATIVE data later in the week. The week after has 3y, 10y and 30y auctions. So we would be sellers next week at some point and then buyers at the auctions.; February 25, 2011 at 1:04 PM
bob said...: AUD keeps bumping along overhead resistance, very hard to make a bear case on it, technically; February 25, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/

Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3756 -0.0046 -0.33%
USD/JPY 81.78 -0.13 -0.16%
GBP/USD 1.6099 -0.0039 -0.24%
5-Year Treasury 2.173 -0.013 -0.59%
10-Year Treasury 3.431 -0.007 -0.20%
30-Year Treasury 4.522 -0.013 -0.29%
ibid.

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLT

91.95

TLT, to me, still, looks good..any dissenters?; February 25, 2011 at 1:06 PM
karen said...: unless AUD is a rising wedge.. i can make that case.; February 25, 2011 at 1:07 PM
bob said...: MEH

Looking at ZB, there is a range that was in place before the dump, we are near the top of that now. Would be adding near the bottom of that range, but not here.; February 25, 2011 at 1:08 PM
bob said...: K

Look at a REALLY long chart of the AUD, the 2010 yearly close was above major trend line resistance.; February 25, 2011 at 1:10 PM
I-Man said...: I want to see the long bond (ZB) rally in synch with the equities and the USD before I get anymore interested in the bonds.; February 25, 2011 at 1:10 PM
Anonymous said...: RE DTO, look @ WTI last 4 months... holy mother chicken!; February 25, 2011 at 1:11 PM
I-Man said...: Why short AUD? Its the strongest dog of the pack...

The EUR is the dog.; February 25, 2011 at 1:11 PM
bob said...: I

agreed.; February 25, 2011 at 1:12 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Let bonds come to you. There are plenty of shorts out there.
TLT may end up forming a smooth gorgeously rounded bottom.

Like.... like.... well, you know.; February 25, 2011 at 1:14 PM
I-Man said...: Here comes AT's ES 1320...; February 25, 2011 at 1:16 PM
karen said...: you short when there's a peak sillies.. lol..looks like it peaked in dec on a monthly chart to me and this was the bounce month.

anyway, it's a tell for us equities and the dollar so i have to watch it and accept what it does.; February 25, 2011 at 1:17 PM
karen said...: i'm just praying that copper is a bull trap.; February 25, 2011 at 1:17 PM
I-Man said...: If the market is playing nice, it wont prison rape the shorts lining up at ES 1320/ YM 12142...

But if it doesnt... ugh, its gonna be pain.; February 25, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Cold Steel said...: Prison rape is just another word for Bromance....; February 25, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Cold Steel said...: Just sharing the LOVE; February 25, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Anonymous said...: AmenRa said...
I still don't know why futures are higher. Smells of desperation.

February 25, 2011 8:29 AM

...The falling knife. She is a chainsaw...; February 25, 2011 at 1:24 PM
karen said...: ISM New York says delaying the release of February report that was scheduled for Monday. Larry Yun hired to double check numbers; February 25, 2011 at 1:25 PM
Anonymous said...: right, thanks for the feedback..

was thinking that the TLT Chart was, still, 'constructive'...

AAIP; February 25, 2011 at 1:26 PM
bob said...: K

Not long AUD, and could agree with you, as it seems everyone did at the beginning of the year.

The former top trend was from 12/96 to 7 2007

It's now right at about 1.022, probably a ton of stops above 1.018.

Another (bear) wild card is the bank, they have intervened before, and they, apparently, don't fuck around.; February 25, 2011 at 1:26 PM
karen said...: Scott Bleier
$$ DOW correction was 355pts or 2.8% over 18.5 trading hours. Retracement is 165pts. or 1.4% over 7.5 hrs.--So far...as of 1:30 Friday; February 25, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Anonymous said...: On the left, in the black corner... a tag team....

The FED, with a massive liquidity hose.
TEPPER and other WHALES.
COLD STEEL

In the red corner,

MISTER SHORTY

ding-ding... SECONDS OUT !; February 25, 2011 at 1:29 PM
karen said...: hey, what happened to 1320 ?; February 25, 2011 at 1:30 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: the TLT Chart was, still, 'constructive'...

Indeed. ZROZ too. One could hold some Ts and sleep soundly here. We are holding AGG, TLT and LQD with a bit of JNK.

The opportunities to ADD will be LEGION, Marky. Also great trading opps in ZROZ and TLT calls lie ahead.; February 25, 2011 at 1:33 PM
Cold Steel said...: I do my best work in the last hour, Mistress.
Sometimes all I have to do is thrust forcefully for 5-10 minutes.; February 25, 2011 at 1:34 PM
karen said...: LB.. do you think the 30 year will trade back toward a 3.5% yield then.. below our other esteemed doctor's new CD?; February 25, 2011 at 1:34 PM
AmenRa said...: Anon

The image of trying to catch falling chainsaws is hilarious.; February 25, 2011 at 1:34 PM
bob said...: LB

I like jennifer's idea of buying puts on the inverse ETF too, TBT.; February 25, 2011 at 1:35 PM
Brian Sack said...: A nutjob running around killing his own citizens. Possibility of civil war in that country. Oil near $100. Stocks up.

Not very bearish, is it? The reason?

Have you seen the size of my fire hose?; February 25, 2011 at 1:36 PM
karen said...: Charles Gasparino
Financial analyst Mike Mayo says Citi CEO Vikram Pandit broke federal law.; February 25, 2011 at 1:36 PM
Anonymous said...: China supplier health hazards, underage worker concerns for Apple
Posted by Suzanne Deffree on February 23, 2011

Sure, you want that iPad, and you know that it retails at about $499 and that, according to IHS iSuppli, it is built at about a $250 bill of materials, but what’s its real cost?

According to workers at an Apple supplier, popular touch devices are costing them their health. And separately, according to Apple, some suppliers are employing underage workers to build parts for its devices.

Reuters reported this morning that Chinese workers employed by Wintek at a factory making touch screens on contract for Apple have urged the iPad, iPhone, and iPod maker to help them in getting their grievances over chemical poisoning addressed by their employer.

Wintek, which makes touch screens for Apple, used hexyl hydride, also called n-hexane, from May 2008 to August 2009, but stopped after discovering it was making workers ill. Workers say their health concerns have not been address as thoroughly as they deem necessary and are appealing to Apple for help.

On top of this, our friends at EE Times report that Apple has a growing problem with its Chinese suppliers using workers under the legal age of 16 years. EE Times reports that Apple is aware of the problem, is not OK with the practices, and in some cases has required suppliers at fault to take corrective action.

These news items are two more examples of poor treatment of employees and questionable labor policies in China. By far, Apple and it suppliers are not the only companies impacted. Should Apple and other US-based companies that source from partners in China be held responsible, either ethically or legally, for suppliers’ policies and actions? Understanding that the US labor system is far from perfect, does news like this impact your view on work with companies in countries with lower employment standards and verifications? Voice your opinions below.
http://mobile.edn.com/blog/Now_Hear_This_/40570-China_supplier_health_hazards_underage_worker_concerns_for_Apple.php

AAIP; February 25, 2011 at 1:37 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 30y will ultimately go lower than anyone can believe, except for Gary Shilling. Right now a 4.33-4.60% range in place, next one up is 4.60-4.80 and the one below is 4.08-4.33%.; February 25, 2011 at 1:39 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Let's say we are printing a 1.0 GDP by Q3 or 4.
If that's the case, then a 3.5% 30y is probably right on the button.

A real double dip by Q1 2012 and we see a 2 handle. Easy.; February 25, 2011 at 1:41 PM
bob said...: Someone else like TBT puts too.

1700 june 28 puts traded today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TBT&m=2011-06

Ben, what was that about big volume moves on options?; February 25, 2011 at 1:41 PM
I-Man said...: ES high so far was 1319.50...

Got a feeling they will let it pullback one more time about 15 YM pts and then they will gun the crap out of it.

(I closed my long already, will reenter on the pullback mentioned above... the first folks to buy in a second ago will get screwed...); February 25, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Summer will be a nasty sausage making exercise where the market goes in with a lot of high P/E growth stocks and comes out with a lot of rotation into nice juicy dividend stocks leaving wounded egos and deflated multiples in the energy and commodity, tech and retail spaces.; February 25, 2011 at 1:43 PM
karen said...: believe it or not, i see a bullish set up on the usd hourly chart..; February 25, 2011 at 1:44 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Can't beat long dated TBT puts.

Bond yields fall, HFs flee the burning theater, TBT annihilated.
Bond yields steady, TBT decays.
Bond yields wiggle incessantly, TBT death by a thousand cuts.

New Normal and Double Dip back on MSM radar screens....; February 25, 2011 at 1:46 PM
bob said...: The bronte blog I posted earlier could be distilled down to-

long spx (or maybe better dow), short rus

Not new, but he goes through the methodology.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/02/small-hedge-fund-managers-lament.html; February 25, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Mr Market said...: DXY UP
Stocks UP
Treasuries UP

It's MORNING IN AMERICA.; February 25, 2011 at 1:48 PM
karen said...: bob, i did read that and thot there were some interesting bits..; February 25, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Anonymous said...: It's a bit boring K. Can you entertain us?; February 25, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Anonymous said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cnbc-22844419/-game-of-chicken-in-oil-markets-24315395;_ylt=Ai5.TJdvN05ELU49TQKEoz27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTExaW05ZDBnBHBvcwM2BHNlYwN2aWRlb3MEc2xrA2dhbWVvZmNoaWNrZQ--

As though it is ever anything else.... LOL !!; February 25, 2011 at 1:58 PM
karen said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/yellen-says-fed-could-use-communication-to-affect-easing-unemployment.html; February 25, 2011 at 2:04 PM
karen said...: oh, i'm so sad.. the dollar is breaking down out of my little dream scenario..; February 25, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Anonymous said...: the dollar is breaking down out of my little dream scenario..

The dollar isn't usually in my dream scenario.; February 25, 2011 at 2:14 PM
Anonymous said...: Sometimes it's almost as though it is just you and me....
Isn't that romantic?; February 25, 2011 at 2:14 PM
Cold Steel said...: Don't forget about me !; February 25, 2011 at 2:15 PM
I-Man said...: Havent bit yet...

It was hard not to go after that last one... but my target was not hit.

Might regret not taking it back at 12118...; February 25, 2011 at 2:16 PM
karen said...: $$ BANG. another big buy program--out of nowhere! 2:10pm
5 minutes ago

sure enuf.. i don't know what he's looking at exactly but he always calls 'em; February 25, 2011 at 2:17 PM
karen said...: fxa tagged 102!; February 25, 2011 at 2:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Trash rally today.

IWM leads QQQQ leads SPY leads DIA.
Don't bend over in front of the steamroller.; February 25, 2011 at 2:19 PM

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Morning Corner 2.25.11

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