A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: Who threw paint on the masterpiece I was creating?
SPXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Tested and held the 23.% retrace (1303.70). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1340.43). Now trending down on daily 3LB. QE2infinity. JBTFD?…
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Further below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.46). Below weekly 3LB mid.
VIXDark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1385.10). Back below upper trendline. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Above all SMA's. Closed above 1.3782 (fibo .09). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3534).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Back below its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Also still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.34).
IQIBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Closed at its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day (failed to confirm bullish harami). No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 37.25).
DJ TRANS AVGBullish thrusting day. Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5298.10).
TLTSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above SMA(55). Above lower trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 89.92). Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal (down).
WTIDark cloud cover day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back below the 23.6% retrace (96.95). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 87.66).
SILVERBearish engulfing day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Couldn't hold upper trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.58). Blythe brought out the big guns.
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 2.24.11
Another solid day of consolidation in US fixed income markets. HY was flat, IG had a modest bit but investors were still keen to flee to the safety of Treasuries.
Munis have had a good week, and so have mortgages, as at least the "rate risk" has been squeezed out of munis for now.
EM bonds are steady but variable. Remember that Chinese and Indian markets are struggling but Russia and Brazil are fine for now.
The curve has flattened a bit, 2s10s now at 282 bps, 2s30s at 381 bps, and as we pointed out 10s30s had to come in from where it was. So those who dig the long bond have had a good week.
Corpies: LQD 0.11%; AGG 0.02%; JNK -0.01%; HYG 0.08%
Govies: TLT 0.64%; IEI 0.04%; TIP 0.36%
Munis: IQI 1.28%; MUB 0.51%
Mortgages: MBB 0.27%
Specialty: ZROZ 1.90%; TBT -1.20%; EMB 0.11
We did nothing, we had a very small hedge on and got stopped out. That's telling us not to hedge for now. We started a EURUSD short today and we were bottom fishing for NZT as our falling knife. Sticking with about 39% fixed income.
AGG 15%, TLT 10%, JNK 9% LQD 5%.
Equity longs (all divs) 16.5%
Short EURUSD 7%
43 comments:
Crude Oil 96.83 -1.27 -1.28
Natural Gas 3.873 -0.063 -1.60
Corn 696.50 -5.75 -0.82
Soybeans 1329.25 -2.25 -0.17
30yr Bond 121.53125 +0.71875 +0.59
10yr Note 120.046875 +0.234375 +0.20
NY Gold 1402.5 -11.5 -0.81
NY Silver 32.045 -1.259 -3.75
http://www.ino.com/
(AP:ORLANDO, Fla.) Authorities say a Walt Disney World employee has been charged with sexually assaulting a single mother he lured to central Florida by offering her free theme-park passes and hotel discounts.
The Orange County Sheriff's Office says 31-year-old reservations clerk Wilbert Brookins was charged Wednesday with sexual battery.
Authorities say the woman was trying to make a reservation several weeks ago when Brookins offered to use his employee discount. Brookins spent the day with the woman and her two children Tuesday at the Magic Kingdom. The woman told investigators that Brookins assaulted her in her hotel room that night after she fell asleep...
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897674687665710
more reason to Short..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DIS&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
nice wrappage Ar y Fixxy ~
AAIP
My word there are a lot of charts up there AR! I wish I was happy about more of them, laughing.. and thank goodness for a new thread! The other was a hair long in tooth : )
I am already having nightmares about the overnight..
oh i forgot, a green shoot?
Boeing lands $30 billion contract for Air Force refueling tankers
02/24/2011 05:25:45 PM
I am already having nightmares about the overnight..
Hopefully Libya will be resolved and we will wake to a reverse gusher in the black stuff.
Sleep well, and may the night bring you peace and tomorrow bring you happiness.
afiatbnl
amen to that
I've been working on a personal project (very amusing) and haven't been around much lately.
I've been sitting on my hands in the inwestment world. Today, I trimmed way back my euro exposure way back. Given the recent action in the high quality fixed incomes here in the States, my trimmings will be converted to cash. I don't see any sense in accumulating more at these levels.
Congrats to AFIATBNL on the EM short. You have a set of brass ones playing in that sandbox. Those move too fast for me to short.
I'm BAAAACK!
If this were "Screenwriting 101"... The "script" would have an addendum (in parenthesis) inserted right there that says ("faintly audible murmurs of 'OH SHIT HERE COMES THIS GUY AGAIN' heard throughout the crowd")... I'm keeping to my 'Oscars' theme in a disguised attempt to PROMOTE and hold interest thru this weekend...:-)
I want to say this...
I mean this MOST SINCERE... This is the 2nd time this week that I'm saying this...
THIS IS AN AWESOME GROUP OF BLOGGERS!!!
I LOVE THE HELL out of every second that everyone takes the PASSION (and RISK) to pound out their ideas on a keyboard and LAY IT BARE before everyone else...
It's VERY EXHILARATING to me (so I hope you all continue)... I doubt I have to worry about that because I'd assume that after all this time, that's something that's stamped out in the 'character' of each and every one of you...
BEN... I want to say to you personally that I LOVE when you 'take CV to the mat' on various things... I think you're WILDLY SMART... & you're like a BROTHER to me... You really are!
This blog is SPECIAL people... Please give AMEN RA (who is doing YEOMANS WORK at the moment)... & Andy T (the "divine creator" of all things GOOD), your continued patronage...
I'll be around to provide COMIC RELIEF from time to time (not because I think the blog 'needs' it)... But instead, because I NEED you guys more than you need me... And only because since I DID MY SERVICE for exactly ONE YEAR, I feel a small 'tithe' of emeritus status is the nominal fee for that effort...
Basically what that FUCKING MEANS is that I'm now that 'clown' GREENSPAN... Who I suppose, has earned the right to collect appearance fees to blather a bunch of economic BULLSHIT from time to time until he croaks...
ROR
Yours Truly... CV
Oh... & 'Short Crone'... nice to see you (& your words) around again...
CV
@AMEN RA
Here's what CAUGHT MY EYE (on the quick & Dirty) of your thread (which was impeccable, as always)...
- JBTFD?...(SPX)
- Spinning Top (DXY) (TLT) (10YY)
- Dark Cloud Cover (VIX) (WTI)
- Bullish Thrusting (DJ Trans)
- Bearish Engulfing/Harami (Gold/Silver)
All on a Thursday???
My thoughts??? (which are probably about as VALUABLE as "Easy Al's" thoughts)...
---
Tomorrow is Friday... Last Friday of the month... day AFTER PM "expiry"... Day of PRAYER in the Muslim world...
So...
No FEAR "going IN" to the weekend... JBTFD on all your favorite "Cramer" stocks because Harry Wanger's "indices" seem oversold (I-Man can give you the EXACT ticks on this)... The Muslims are busy PRAYING (and disoccupied on the task of putting a bullet into Ghaddafi's skull because it might mean LESS virgins to ravage in their afterlife if done on the day of prayer)...
SO ALL IS WELL!!!
So then... The rest of us INFIDELS can all dress up over the weekend... We spend time to prepare and snack on hors d'ourves... and then sit captively to see which Jewish people HOLLYWOOD decide to 'honor' amongst their ELITE with little gold statuettes...
Then on Monday we can worry about if the world is going to hell or not...
CV (aka - the "Soothsayer" in Shakespeare's rendition of JULIUS CAESAR)... See? All you "shrims" thought I was just some JOKER who predicted the outcome of SuperBowl winners (which - to my knowledge - I fashioned CORRECTLY - WAY the fuck back last August - I recall)... Must have been PURE LUCK! :-)
This is the third AH session that futures are higher. It didn't work before and it won't work for tomorrow.
@Amen (8:56)
You might just be right...
In any case... THE FED (& M2 interpretations) ought NOT to have anything to do with anything...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/adjusted-monetary-base-goes-vertical
interesting day-
I was thinking the bottom was going to drop out there for a bit-
the Irish elections tomorrow may have real repercussions but may not be felt until the actual policies are voiced-
the bullish side of things always seems to me to be the wrong side- but I've been wrong for a while
ahab
I think Ireland will make their position known this weekend. Probably on Sunday night right before the Asian markets open.
I'm not so sure about that Ra- sure there may be some rhetoric bandied about-
but until the new ruling party/parties say exactly what they plan to do as a government-
that's when the rubber hits the road . . .
LOL!! "My thoughts??? (which are probably about as VALUABLE as "Easy Al's" thoughts)..."
How am i supposed to regain composure??!
ahab
I don't think they want to waste time. If anything they'll announce that they want to "discuss" the situation with the IMF asap.
it's interesting in looking back at the top in April 2010.
The day of the top last April there were 634 stocks on the NYSE that hit new highs.
When we reached the high on Nov 5 2010 there were 492 stocks that hit new highs.
Last Friday, despite the S&P being more than 100 points higher than April 2010, only 350 stocks made new highs.
over a year later and it's now more accurate to say it's become a stock pickers market.
we'll see Ra- without looking not sure of the timeline of events that will happen with the bailout as structured-
if the time is critical- than what you say would make more sense-
but if not- sometime it takes a while for a government to get the wheels rollin'
AR, at 8:56, "Make it so!"
And, for my one & only Chet, "Intuition, however illogical, is recognized as a command prerogative."
Karen-
intuition:
a woman knows her man's been cheating when he comes home smelling of liquor and perfume- and walks in the door, slaps her on the rear end and says "your next chubby" . . .
lol
ahab!! LOL!! no, no, no, my husband's line was.. he got to drunk on tequila to call and tell me he woudn't make it home.
on other news-
it appears the Quackdaffy has lost control of most of his country-
makes you wonder if the King of Saudi Arabia is a pretty shrewd dude . . .
too, not to , of course.. : )
forgive me my typos and I will for you yours.. pls.
Karen-
not forgiven . . .that typo is seared in my mind forever
it will probably play out to be one of my more painful memories:-)!
also- looks like I missed a ton of comments today (CV- that dude I am certain could have been a top caliber typist in the day)-
sadly- Mr. Gibson (douche bag) kicked me out of typing in 8th grade (I wasn't taking it seriously enough- okay then!)
but here I found myself in college begging and paying all the women I knew to type my papers- what a show!
So maybe Mr. Gibson knew a thing or two (still a douche bag)
cv@7.43
X2 on most of those comments...
very unique group of characters 'round these parts.
Though, I think that should be the last time you mention how much you like us all....
'lest this become too lovey dovey... not that there's anything wrong with that.
>> CV said...
>> Y'all better go out and buy yourselves some 55
>> gallon "food grade" barrels (for storage) before
>> they stop making 'em...
CV, why would they stop making them? Because the plastic becomes too expensive and therefore no one buys them?
ahab.. (again, dying of laughter!) you got that right on Chet...I have called him on his typing skills numerous times..
wunsacon-
fuck the barrels . . .get some ammo and some guns . . .and whatever your neighbor's have is now yours-
unless they shoot you first (a risk on trade)
I had never seen that JS clip.. i am now.. unraveled : )
my son dropped i/home mid way and said he had seen it 5x at least..
well "AT" thanks for the further enlightenment!
Wunsacon- and I do mean that . . .about "risk on", the real "risk on" (your life) that people substitute with gambling, trading, etc . . .
the extreme sport folks however- actually do put their life on the line- for the adrenaline-
there something to that . . .it's not all about safety . . .
i meant dropped "in/home" not that it matters.
Karen-
haven't you ever seen the tagline on a post where someone says something somewhat non politically correct and constructed as:
blah, blah, blah, blah- "not that there is anything wrong with that"-
that's all from that Seinfeld episode . . .
@K.
Yeah, that episode was an instant classic....it immediately created a phrase that became part of pop culture. That's probably the point at which you know you've got something "big" on your hands...when phrases from your show/movie make into pop culture.
From the Wikipedia Entry on the "The Outing"
"According to the "Inside Look" interviews on the episode's DVD release, the original script was almost abandoned due to fears of offending the gay community. When writer Larry Charles casually used the phrase "not that there's anything wrong with that" in a discussion about salvaging his episode, Jerry Seinfeld immediately realized if that line was added to the script, it would be socially acceptable. The line would soon afterward become a catch phrase (Jason Alexander maintains that it is the most popular to originate from the series) and the episode won a GLAAD Media Award.[1] Seinfeld has stated that he is particularly proud of the episode, saying that it simultaneously satirizes both homophobia and excessive political correctness."
Oh jeez...
Gotta catch up on a buncha posts now...
To start with... (since it wasn't acknowledged but still resonates - FOR ME)...
- Ben - you're like a BROTHER to me... & that DOESN'T fucking equate to "BROMANCE"... (which solves ANDY's dilemma - I hope)... I just like a guy who HAS THE BALLS to always "think it out" like you do...
- I wish I'd have added AHAB before... (7:43)... Y'all know something??? It was actually AHAB & CV who REALLY started this casino about a year and a week ago... True dat...
- Andy & Amen... What I said above... ANDY... You're the one who deserves credit for all of this... REALLY... How could anybody ever gone from Ritholtz to here without you?... AMEN - You've been what the Italians would call the "TIMONE" (the STEERING RUDDER) all along... While your DAILY input came along AFTER the start of this blog, it's REALLY what has gathered everyone around the DINNER TABLE (or now - BREAKFAST TABLE) every day... In CV's world, breakfast tables & dinner tables are IMPORTANT... Call me "old fashioned" (but I think 12 years living with families in ITALY convinced me of that notion)...
- karen... :-)... C'Mon man! -lol... You gotta understand CV... Just ask Carolyn... She's someone who has looked into my eyes and can tell you what CV is all about... I haven't changed in 20+ years... So it seems USELESS to change at this point... My REAL PEOPLE & FAMILY skills are better than my typing skills...
@wunsa (10:16)
Not sure the EXACT answer to that one...
My BEST answer is this...
"What if anything & everything" that we take for granted today were to become scarce?"...
So I think...
What is at RISK?
If "oil" is at risk, then PLASTIC is at risk... If plastic is at risk, then FOOD GRADE containment is at risk...
Sure - clay & steel drums are a substitute (and have been used before), but they're not AS cheap or convenient...
Anyway - that tends to be at the forefront of my MODALITY of thinking...
CV doesn't think... WHAT IS...
CV, instead, thinks... WHAT IF NOT WHAT "IS" BECAME SCARCE...?
kinda like that...
It's an exercise in FUTILITY... Because WE ALL KNOW that "as Americans" we have the outright blessing of DOG that we should possess our HEART'S CONTENT, and never WANT for anything (because - of course - of TECHNOLOGY)...
I'm kinda OLD SCHOOL... I just don't "count" on that as actually always BEING...
Call me CRAZY!
@Ahab
"wunsacon-
fuck the barrels . . .get some ammo and some guns . . .and whatever your neighbor's have is now yours-
unless they shoot you first (a risk on trade)"
That's funny man. I think that would be the main argument I have with the "hard currency" crowd that wants to horde monetary coins when the hyperinflation collapse goes down.
If we really "get" to experience something like that, I'd rather be long mostly ammunitions/weaponry and a lot of friends....
As CV asked me earlier this week: "How much would you pay for that last jug of milk."
I would submit that I wouldn't pay anything for that last jug of milk. There'd be a fight over it....
@CV.
Wasn't suggesting anything "bromantic" at all...not that there's anything wrong with that.
Anytime I can work a Seinfeld clip into a response, I do...
Ha.
Thanks for the H/T earlier...appreciate that.
Will revisit that Germany/Euro discussion from the other night when I sober up again....
@Andy T (11:02)
See?
That's EXACTLY CV's point... Mainly the bolded parts of this...
---
"If we really "get" to experience something like that, I'd rather be long mostly ammunitions/weaponry and a lot of friends....
As CV asked me earlier this week: "How much would you pay for that last jug of milk."
I would submit that I wouldn't pay anything for that last jug of milk. There'd be a fight over it....
----
CV used to LAUGH last year when I debated the same "theoretical" scenario with KING THOR the 3rd (or his appointed knave - as the case might have been)...
My point was that I was not worried about the theoretical BANDS OF RAVAGING MARAUDERS that were likely to descend upon my homestead and PILLAGE my stocks (perhaps that was just a projected sexual fantasy - who knows?)...
Anyway - I've always thought of the SCENARIO as different...
Rather - I've imagined a FUEDAL existence to be structured upon the "wits" of a conclave of ORGANIZERS...
So - the ORGANIZING brain of the Lord would have the wits to negotiate with a "band of ravaging marauders" in a way to reap benefits for the CLAN...
WTF ever... Something like like that...
In any case... if you're TOO DUMB A FUCK to be able to wile your way out of that type of scenario... Then I suppose you DESERVE to become impaled at the end of a spear...
At least that's the way CV thinks... Which is why I basically sleep with a great deal of comfort each night... :-)
M2 (aka - "THE FED HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH EQUITY PRICES" - Instead - It's all just a MARKET of individual traders "firing off the trade" with their E-TRADE accounts)...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chart-needs-no-introduction-or-explanation
"would have the wits to negotiate with a band of ravaging marauders"
Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates? Yes. Morons.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-ibcEJj_KI
No irreverance to the seriousness of the actual reality intended of oourse ...
(he says with rubber band and roll of nickels under his pillow)
"course"
"...That's funny man. I think that would be the main argument I have with the "hard currency" crowd that wants to horde monetary coins when the hyperinflation collapse goes down.
If we really "get" to experience something like that, I'd rather be long mostly ammunitions/weaponry and a lot of friends..."
AT,
I hear that, and, tend to agree (past a certain 'Price', PMs begin to lose their utility..) -- though, among some, they are a 'sign of mutual understanding/beliefs' and they'll give one a different kind of 'Currency', amongst that crowd..
that that Crowd may have what you desire is, to me, a selling point for keeping some around..
+ they're a great reminder of what was, at the min., we should remember: "Coins don't Lie."
AAIP
(hope that was clear..)
Thanks for the responses, CV, Ahab, Andy.
I bought some more NitroPak. (Wife thinks I'm less crazy this year than last year when I insisted we buy some.) Yeah, I know it's not enough. But, I will "accumulate" some every year (or semi-annually).
Went shopping for a used Prius. Even wasted dough on a pre-purchase inspection. But, didn't buy. I think I'll wait until gas prices double and then try to buy a luxury gas guzzler on discount. (Well, of course, that's contingent on continued employment.)
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