Weekend Edition - NCAA & NFL Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread - wager totals include the vig lost])

2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 57-40-2
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +2
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (-$110)* (do as I "say" not as I do - the REDUX)


2010 NFL Picks (aggregate): 93-76-5
2010 NFL (unit picks differential): +31
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+2,950)

Gameday/week writeup...

We're coming to the end of the line before we get to these games are ridiculous because there should be a playoff system, the NCAA are a bunch of greedy bastards, the festive college bowl season...

Think it's hard predicting college football games? (look at my WAGER TOTAL numbers in NFL vs. NCAA - even though the aggregate picks are fairly evened out)... What's the takeaway? Watch, but don't BET on college football... Anyway, that whole thing is about to gett even more difficult because during bowl season, you get to try and figure out a bunch of "out of conference" match-ups with degenerate kids who have spent the last month cheating on, studying hard for final exams instead of doing what they're paid to do, told to do on the gridiron... Think coach Saban & coach Kelly are tough guys? Try professor Obama vonDunham in "The Politics of International Basket Weaving"... Now THAT's a tough final!

Anyway, once again, here's CV's system (which hardly applies this week - except for noted exceptions)... Many of the games this weekend are CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS (so they're being played at neutral sites)... You have to factor that into the lines...


- Take live home dogs (regardless of what you think)
- Start fading "BCS #1" ranked teams as soon as the rankings come out
- Take Boise State & TCU regardless
- "Go the other way" (in which CV handicaps the Penn State game)
- I had Virginia Tech working for awhile as well, but that's more or less run its course now that they're in the ACC Championship game

Notes to that (this week)... The "live home dogs" is just about ended... It worked yet again this week with Fresno State... I also had Arizona State (which I gave you mid week), but the rule didn't apply there, as they were VISITING team... I took ASU for other reasons... On Saturday, the "live home dog" rule will apply to Louisiana Tech, Oregon State & Washington State... Note: It will NOT apply to South Carolina or Nebraska (because both are conference championships being played at neutral sites)... The system usually works better when the game is being played under the lights/mid-week, but I'll go along with the calls this Saturday anyway... If I had to peel one of those games out, it might be Washington State (because the Washington Huskies are still eligible for a coveted spot in a muffler or weed eater bowl at some town that only has bus service in & out)... ESPN doesn't send Erin Andrews to those towns (because the locals might get too drunk and crash their pickups)...

The "FADE BCS #1" ranked teams might apply EXTRA in this case... Because 13 times, in the past 12 season, believe it or not, the #1 ranked team LOST in the final week of play... IT'S TRUE!... However, that was always when either an SEC or Big 10 school was waiting in the catbird seat to take over either the #2 or #1 spot... With TCU perched at number #3... I expect the refs of the Oregon game, and the Auburn game to be instructed to be handy with the yellow flags (in case a good play is made by either OSU or USC)

... Or, you'll see a bunch of "whoops" missed extra points...

(Footnote: the schools that Oregon & Auburn have to get through today to make it to the BCS National Championship game, are nicknamed the "Cocks" and the "Beavers")... I won't editorialize on that one...

TCU, & Penn State are idle... Boise State is playing, but they get deleted from consideration this week according to another rule... Don't take teams laying huge point spreads the week following an emotional loss...

So... Finally... The Picks... (pick in BOLD CAPS)

ARIZONA STATE (+4) at Arizona - (1 unit) Thursday Night
Arizona State 30 - Arizona 29 - (+$100) - Correct
Illinois at FRESNO STATE (+5) - (1 unit) Friday Night
Fresno State 25 - Illinois 23 - (+$100) - Correct
Nevada at LOUISIANA TECH (+8.5) - (1 unit)
Nevada 35 - LT 17 - (-$110) - Incorrect
Washington at WASHINGTON STATE (+5.5) - (1 unit)
Washington 35 - Washington State 28 - ($110) - Incorrect
Oregon at OREGON STATE (+17) - (1 unit)
Oregon 37 - Oregon State 20 - ($0) - Push
unlv at HAWAII (-34.5) - (1 unit)
Hawaii 59 - Unlv 21 - (+$100) - Correct
CONNECTICUT (+2) at South Florida - (1 unit)
Connecticut 19 - USF 16 - (+$100) - Correct

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - [results] Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: West Virginia, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, UCF


Week 14 NCAA Picks (ATS): 8 - 2 - 2
Week 14 unit pick differential: +1
Week 14 wager total: +($180)

Week 13 NFL picks and game write-ups posted before Sunday kickoff...


 Houston Texans at Philadelphia Dog Killers
Line: Dog Killers by 9.5

CV took the Dog Killers for 3 units
Philadelphia 34 - Houston 24 - (+$300) - Correct


I realize that many of you rely on my picks each week to put food on the table and feed your families... But this week I'm going to do something a little different... I'm not putting any units on any of the EARLY GAMES (tho I will make a "pick" simply to fill out the card and let you know whhich direction I'd be leaning...

Why do this? (you say)... Several reasons... Number one, I've had a pretty decent week (hitting ALL my mid-week picks for multiple units), plus doing well on Saturday NCAA... So this is the stock market version of "booking profits"... I don't want to turn a winning week into a losing one...

Secondly, the public did very well versus Vegas yesterday as all the supported teams like Oregon, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Boise State, Nevada, & Auburn covered... The problem is, you have a whole slate of NFL games set up "lopsided" as well... I'm in this handicapping league (with about 90 other guys), we play for a pretty big prize... Anyway, come Saturday, each players "picks" are visible to all... I'm telling you... In the NFL, in most of the early games, EVERYONE is on one side or another, hardly any "mixture"... It's the equivalent of POMO or that other crap that goes on... Just buy the fucking dip has arrived this week in football wagering... Everyon just knows the Bears are going to cover against the Lions... And the Saints, Jags, Rams, Falcons, Packers, Colts, & Steelers are all EASY MONEY too...

So when I see something like that, I just stay away... If it's all that easy (and all these teams cover), Vegas sports will be shut down by Christmas... I'm pretty sure that will not happen, but with so many EASY MONEY games, it has created a lot of "noise", so it's hard to figure which one is the TRAP... One quick way to find out is to look at the ref crews... Carl Cheffers is doing the KC-Denver game (but the problem is, that's one of the games that is 52%-48%)... Scott Green is another trickster (but his crew is doing the New England - NY Jets game Monday Night)...

What I'm going to do here (because I'm feeling very strongly that a lot of these lines are going to come right down to the number)... Is offer a series of exotic bets (teasers)... In a 2 team teaser you can shift the line 6 points, in a 3 team teaser, you get to shift it 10 points)... It's usually a sucker bet, but this week it may be the best way to have a little action (on several outcomes), while locking in your profits and not giving much back if you lose...

Here are CV's "teaser" plays: (1 unit apiece)

Saints [change line from (-6.5) to (-0.5)] + Panthers [change line from (+5.5) to (+11.5)]

Saints [change line from (-6.5) to (+3.5)] + Panthers [change line from (+5.5) to (+15.5)] + Steelers [change line from (+3) to (+13)]

MONEY LINE PARLAY (Teams only have to "win" straight up)
Chiefs (-400); Lions (+190); Packers (-450); Falcons (-145); Chargers (-650); Colts (-240); Saints (-280)
Parlay Payout (on one unit) = $1560
wager: 0.5 units

MONEY LINE PARLAY (Teams only have to "win" straight up)

Chiefs (-400); Patriots (+190); Packers (-450); Falcons (-145); Chargers (-650); Colts (-240); Saints (-280)
Parlay Payout (on one unit) = $759
wager: 0.5 units


 Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EST)
Line: Vikings by 5.5
CV would "lean" to the Vikings

 Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (1:00 EST)
Line: Dolphins by 5
CV would "lean" to the Dolphins

 Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (1:00 EST)
Line: Flaming Thumbtacks by 3
CV would lean to the Jaguars

 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)
Line: Chiefs by 8.5
CV would lean to the Broncos

 Washington Redskins at New York Fumble Giants (1:00 EST)
Line: Fumble Giants by 7
CV would lean to the Redskins

 Chicago Bears at Drew Stanton Lions (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 4.5
CV would lean to the Lions

 San Francisco 49ers at 1921 Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST)
Line: Acme Packers by 9.5
CV would lean to the 49ers

(Pack going with the 1921 attire in this game)

(and you WONDER why Rex Grossman has had such a tough career in the NFL)

Rumor has it that if the NFL wants to move back to Los Angeles, West Hollywood is bidding for the stadium rights and would like Green Bay to consider a move...

Maybe when this guy becomes NFL commish...

 New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST)
Line: Saints by 6.5
CV would lean to the Saints


 Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:15 EST)
Line: Falcons by 3
CV would lean to the Falcons

(Bucs going with the "creamsicles" this weekend)

 Oakland at San Diego (4:05 EST)
Line: Chargers by 13
CV would lean to the Chargers

(Chargers going with the powder blue here)

 Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (4:15 EST)
Line: Seahawks by 5.5
CV would lean to the Panthers

 Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (4:15 EST)
Line: Colts by 5.5
CV would lean to the Cowboys

 St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (4:15 EST)
Line: Rams by 3.5
CV would lean to the Cardinals


 Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST)
Line: Ravens by 3
CV would lean to the Steelers


 J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets at New England Patriots (8:35 EST)
Line: Patriots by 3.5
CV is leaning to the Patriots

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Bernanke's pet dog

Creditcane™: Is this the best the bulls can do (on a weak NFP) to stop the inevitable?

Bullish short day (running out of steam?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1225.85). Holding above weekly 3LB midpoint. QE2infinity.

Three black crows pattern. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 38.2% retrace at 80.63. Back below 80.95 (major fibo from low). Back below SMA(89). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 81.19).

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 23.54). Getting comfy in the "no fear" zone.

Bullish long day. Well above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace has been holding. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1338.80). My precious.

Bullish long day (really?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace at 1.3129. Now above SMA(89). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.3009).

Spinning top day (failed to confirm hanging man). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Staying above SMA(144). Still above its 38.2% retrace (29.91). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 29.14).

Bullish engulfing day (now out of the triangle). Still below SMA(55) but above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing the Gann 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.30).

Bullish short day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4806.83).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the Gann 2x1. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 295.43).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above all SMA's. Still looking to test the lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.23).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 47.37). JBTFD...

Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above the 61.8% retrace at 88.36. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 85.73).

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Back below its 38.2% retrace (12.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.87).


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