TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.23.11

Morning Corner 2.23.11

Silver (weekly info)
new high 32.30
trend=up
high= 32.30
rev= 29.27; mid= 30.79

Weekly candle could form a shooting star. From how it looks now it would have to close near the lows. The reason is that a shooting star with a red body is more bearish than one with a green body. But shooting stars are not the best reversal candles. A hanging man w/ a red body (too late for this), a dark cloud cover (still possible) or bearish engulfing (still possible) usually give better results.

Wheat (weekly info)
no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 973.00
rev= 900.00; mid= 936.50

Foods made from wheat should start getting less expensive. At least it offsets the increase in gas prices. Today wheat closed below its weekly 3LB reversal price (there's still W-Th-F) and if it continues then the monthly 3LB mid is the next level of support. Support becomes the 38.2% retrace at 796.58 if that fails.

Mad skills...

290 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 290 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/22/news/economy/detroit_school_restructuring/index.htm

Michigan approves plan to close half of Detroit schools; February 23, 2011 at 7:16 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703775704576161382499336732.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

China Plans Overseas Iron Ore Asset Spree

"China Iron & Steel Association Vice Chairman Luo Bingsheng told an industry conference Wednesday China would seek to derive 40% of ore imports from Chinese-invested sources by 2015."; February 23, 2011 at 7:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Amen Ra,
How wd a Hanging man candle be a better reversal candle than a red shooting star. I mean, in the latter, people who bought at the highs are already underwater and would sell at the break of the lows thus driving prices even lower.
What am I missing?

Prashant; February 23, 2011 at 7:47 AM
AmenRa said...: Prashant

A hanging man is a refusal to trade at a higher price. A line in the sand. A shooting star is a failed test of new highs but did trade higher. Both require confirmation.; February 23, 2011 at 8:26 AM
Jennifer said...: Ahab -- re: gold miners, I couldn't find the Hickey newsletter (got caught up at the pediatrician's office) but the gist of it was 1) proven gold only, no exploration companies that don't have an actual gold find, 2) no foreign govt risk -- don't want that mine to get up and running only to be seized in a nationalization spree. He wasn't focused exclusively on juniors and there were probably a few other metrics, but those were the biggies. Don't know if you subscribe to the Gary Savage daily newsletter, or if you just read the free blog. Gary's total portfolio allocation as of Sunday night was 30% SIL/ 35% SLW/ 65% AGQ. I admire his confidence in his convictions, but I could never handle that sort of portfolio allocation personally. I have not read yesterday's update yet so I don't know if he made any changes based on yesterday's bearish engulfing action in the miner space.; February 23, 2011 at 8:27 AM
Jennifer said...: Ahab -- re: Gary Savage (again!) no portfolio changes based on yesterday's action. His entire investment thesis involves the dollar failing to hold 77.50 though.; February 23, 2011 at 8:33 AM
karen said...: good morning! up early to JBTFD.. oh, I guess i should have done that at yesterday's close : (

It's another DGDF day! wow! but glad i didn't buy the dip in copper.. it's down another .7% right now..

ps.. thanks for the scoop, Jennifer.; February 23, 2011 at 8:47 AM
karen said...: you all know how i hate this company: Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. has reported 1Q net income of $3.4 million. The company however received a 1Q net tax benefit of $20.4 million, on pre-tax basis the company reported a $17 million loss.; February 23, 2011 at 8:53 AM
Jennifer said...: Yesterday, Tom Demark said that there needed to be downside follow through today for his call of a top to be confirmed.; February 23, 2011 at 8:54 AM
CV said...: @karen (8:47)

Well I'm happy to say that I didn't OVERPAY for my nickles...

Oh no wait... If it's DGDF, maybe I did!

Tough market!; February 23, 2011 at 8:56 AM
CV said...: I believe today is an OPEX day expiry in PM's...

If so, and the dust is settled, and therefore the banks rally, it might be tough for a big follow thru day...

Just saying... No chips on the table here...; February 23, 2011 at 8:58 AM
CV said...: just a bunch of "ifs"; February 23, 2011 at 8:58 AM
karen said...: no way we will go red today.. 1365 coming soon!

http://cyclewave.homestead.com/stockcycles.html; February 23, 2011 at 9:03 AM
CV said...: I'm going on memory alone here, but it seems to me that the "pattern" for about the last 6 quarters (going all the way back to "karens top" and before), has been:

- some kind of volatility spike near the middle of the quarter (a week or so on either side of the middle of the quarter - then more or less a rise into the end of the quarter)...

The noticeable 'exception' to that was the June '10 period (post flash crash), when the market was still nervous, and QE2 hadn't been invented yet...; February 23, 2011 at 9:10 AM
ben22 said...: eh...one could just as easily argue the dollar, while not by much, and despite monetization of 3 trillion, amazingly, has been going up for 3 years now. The bottom should drop out at any moment, no doubt.

I couldn't be happier as I scrolled about 10 sites this morning to see many people mention down dollar up markets and JBTFD. All the Dorothy's are trading today, they all want to see that money green horse at Oz. So remember, close your eyes, and repeat after me:

There's no Beard Like Ben's
There's no Beard Like Ben's
There's no Beard Like Ben's

and make it rain.....; February 23, 2011 at 9:13 AM
CV said...: @ben22

didn't you say yesterday that 1324 would be an area of resistance to get through?

Futures are "up", but they're not THAT up...; February 23, 2011 at 9:15 AM
Jennifer said...: Futures aren't up anymore :-); February 23, 2011 at 9:21 AM
CV said...: In any case...

As far as the dollar is concerned, whether it goes UP or DOWN the "nickles" are safe...

& considering it would be "illegal" to melt them down to slag bullets... I suppose I could just do a "David vs. Goliath" and use them as slingshot projectiles...

Someone holding FIAT could learn origami, and fold them into paper airplanes to throw at people...

I make a mean switchblade out of rubber bands & popsicle sticks too!; February 23, 2011 at 9:21 AM
karen said...: Chet.. look again.. LOL!

Ben, you are gonna get me thru this year with my sanity intact.. thank you!; February 23, 2011 at 9:22 AM
karen said...: Ben, what does it mean when dress hemlines lengthen again? My latest BG email:

Great Lengths: Springs Longer Silhouette; February 23, 2011 at 9:24 AM
karen said...: copper down 1.62% now..; February 23, 2011 at 9:27 AM
karen said...: FYI and LOL (sorry, i can't help it.. markets/commentary have me in hysterics : )

zerohedge
Today's POMO is a tiny $1.5-2.5 billion; February 23, 2011 at 9:29 AM
bob said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7aDstrDMf0

What about this?; February 23, 2011 at 9:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Thanks Jenny- still battling the flu- pretty much been sleeping for 2 days. At the moment, I have an overwhelming desire for an orange? It's all I can think about- my kingdom for an orange!

Are you a subscriber to Gary Savage's premium content and thus the newsletter? He seemed to make a lot of sense to me.

I-Man- you got a chuckle out of me yesterday when you said there was some folks in your office who outperform and have zero methodology-

so how do they pick their trades?; February 23, 2011 at 9:32 AM
karen said...: That NEO-Wave email really upset me with this last sentence yesterday:

While economic conditions have improved greatly since 2009’s low, NEoWave warns a new downturn (lasting 1- to 2-years) is beginning. As is always the case, markets anticipate future economic reality.; February 23, 2011 at 9:32 AM
karen said...: Nomura Predicts $220 Oil If Just Libya, Algeria Cut Output http://is.gd/AzHLWs; February 23, 2011 at 9:34 AM
bob said...: Copper nearing support, will it hold?; February 23, 2011 at 9:37 AM
spoonman said...: Ra - thanks for the Jimi. Love it.; February 23, 2011 at 9:38 AM
CV said...: @ben

Not trying to put you in a pissy mood this early in the morning (or YOU karen) but on this...

one could just as easily argue the dollar, while not by much, and despite monetization of 3 trillion, amazingly, has been going up for 3 years now

You yourself like to (and probably RIGHTFULLY do) employ the tactic of backhanding a "one off" comment that doesn't seem to have any statistical relevance...

So the dollar is better now (in this polaroid of time, than it was in March of 2008)... TRUE...

So I gusee that means it's going to be higher in 2014?, and then higher than that in 2017?

I also see that it's done 2 "golden crosses" (50MA over 200MA) during that same period (neither of which confirmed much except that the 2nd one, coincidentally occurred in August 2010, and co-incided with a FAILED H&S...

A subsequent RALLY to regain that H7S level (around 81) failed at the 50MA and has since darted below the 200MA)...

The 50MA & 200MA appear to be heading for another DEATH CROSS challenge at the moment...

In a nutshell... It would be impossible to make ANY kind of intelligent prediction as to whether the dollar rallies strongly from here, or goes down to test the 70 levels...

As for the subject of "monetization"... I'll concede the point to you that the levels ARE IN FACT higher than 2008 (despite $3 trillion)...

I'm sure it's PURE COINCIDENCE that the last DEATH CROSS and failed H&S came at EXACTLY the same time that QE2 was discussed at Jackson Hole...; February 23, 2011 at 9:39 AM
Jennifer said...: I-Man -- yesterday (I think it was yesterday) you said that when you really make it, you are putting a trading desk in between your bedroom and your bathroom. I went on a house tour once, about 5 years ago now, where the homeowner had a huge mirror in the bathroom. In the mirror, somewhere between the top of the glass and your reflection beneath, was a streaming ticker. I've never seen anything like it before or since. Still have no idea how they did that. Cool though.; February 23, 2011 at 9:41 AM
Jennifer said...: Ahab -- yes, I subscribe to the SMT premium service. You get a nightly newsletter M-Thurs, and a weekend update, along with COT info in a spreadsheet. Its good, but frankly, it was better a year or so ago, before the obsession with gold took over. AR's charts are better. But, I learned a lot of basic TA when I really needed it. Service wise, its one of the best as far as what you get for the $. (Maybe I could publish reviews of subscription services? Think people would pay for that?); February 23, 2011 at 9:44 AM
CV said...: I'm referring to those "crosses" as showing on WEEKLY candles...

I'm pretty sure I'm about to be 'schooled' now on how there is no relevance in TA to golden crosses or dark crosses... (which I may actually believe because the DARK CROSS which happened after the flash crash last year never turned into anything much)...

I'm sure it had nothing to do with QE though... it was probably just a bunch of traders who started "pricin in" & feeling good about... THE ECONOMY...; February 23, 2011 at 9:44 AM
CV said...: @jennifer

I spend a lot of time watching the DIY network (home improvement projects)...

That "mirror fixture" of embedded TV's and such, is something that you can option for... obviously...

IOW, some people have these things... I think the last thing I'd want in my life is a stock ticker in the bathroom...

When I-Man puts one on his fishing boat, you'll know that ALL HOPE is gone... :-); February 23, 2011 at 9:48 AM
karen said...: ForexLive Jamie Coleman
New blog post: Oil up better than $2; Saudi rumors http://www.forexlive.com/168785/all/oil-up-better-than-2-saudi-rumors; February 23, 2011 at 9:50 AM
Anonymous said...: New investment advice from the man who said put it all in stock (circa 1999) because the Dow's going to 36,000:

"Investors should divide their portfolios among the major asset classes, Glassman says--stocks, bonds, and cash--and they should re-balance this asset allocation whenever the levels get out of whack. What investors who take this approach give up in potential returns, they'll make up in safety and peace of mind."

laugh out loud; February 23, 2011 at 9:51 AM
CV said...: @karen (9:50)

March is about the time when there are a lot of refinery shutdowns for maintenance...

They have to reconfigure the cracking towers to prepare for a switch from heating oil to gaso...

I'd expect that regardless of what happens in the middle east, we're about to see another 10 to 20 cents at the pump shortly...

But that will be GREAT because then "credit card sales" will be up (as a strong economic indicator)... ror; February 23, 2011 at 9:57 AM
Jennifer said...: Ford picked a bad day to announce a recall.; February 23, 2011 at 9:57 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Investors should divide their portfolios among the major asset classes - stocks, bonds, and cash

---

CV's investment advice is:

"Gas grass or ass... Nobody rides for free!"; February 23, 2011 at 9:58 AM
karen said...: Jennifer, this was out today on GM

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/gm-profit-may-be-pinched-by-new-model-costs-that-stung-ford.html; February 23, 2011 at 10:00 AM
karen said...: EEM up today.. flight to safety!!; February 23, 2011 at 10:01 AM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
Existing Home Sales: The NAR has basically admitted to cooking the books ; not sure why these #'s are relevant news anymore; February 23, 2011 at 10:02 AM
CV said...: @karen

Are you still "dancin with the devil in the pale moonlight" with ZSL?; February 23, 2011 at 10:06 AM
Jennifer said...: Thanks for the GM link, Karen.; February 23, 2011 at 10:07 AM
Jennifer said...: Something bad just happened in the financial space.; February 23, 2011 at 10:10 AM
bob said...: EUR broke through 1.3750....; February 23, 2011 at 10:11 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

maybe it's best to ignore what I was saying about the 1324 yesterday, only because I was trying to apply a wave count just on the day and I'm not one to place much confidence in a one day count, that was just the highside were wave 4 couldn't break through. If my count was even close though, I was looking for a day or two of sideways chop no higher than the 1324. Other wavers have already claimed five down victory....I'm not so certain.

As for FIAT, you forget dude, that could be a weapon

Paper Cuts!

@Karen,

re: hemlines

think in general, the shorter they are, the closer we are to a top, the longer, the closer we are to a low.

I once thought there was no way that could be applied over time, people were such prudes, say back in the 20's weren't they. but then I saw some picks of some sassy ladies in a study from the 20's.....wow.; February 23, 2011 at 10:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Crude Oil 97.37 +1.95 +2.04
Natural Gas 3.879 -0.028 -0.72
Corn 690.25 -30.00 -4.35
Soybeans 1311 -70 -5.34
30yr Bond 121.21875 +0.37500 +0.31
10yr Note 112.06250 -8.03125 -6.69
NY Gold 1407.4 +6.3 +0.45
NY Silver 33.265 +0.403 +1.22
http://www.ino.com/

I'll ask again, anyone seeing/'ready for' U$D 150-200 Oil?

AAIP; February 23, 2011 at 10:16 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

"You yourself like to (and probably RIGHTFULLY do) employ the tactic of backhanding a "one off" comment that doesn't seem to have any statistical relevance"

you want my response?

I think a lot of the comments here of late have been absurd, I'm bringing my own flavor of that to the dance. That's all.; February 23, 2011 at 10:16 AM
karen said...: Ben, these days hemlines are a poor gauge.. any length can be fashionable.. and ALL the men i know prefer short..

Chet.. zsl, i have 1k shares at 8.22; February 23, 2011 at 10:16 AM
CV said...: @ben22 (10:14)

Thanks...

I wasn't trying to pin you to a number (or a call), just trying to get an idea of how you were seeing things in your wave timeframes...

So anyway... looks like we're at that 1310 "gap" area...; February 23, 2011 at 10:18 AM
Anonymous said...: chicks in the '20s

"Flappers"

big reason they were called the 'Roarin' '20s'

ibid.; February 23, 2011 at 10:18 AM
ben22 said...: Ra,

two things

awesome video today

For better or worse, when I hear that song I think of Hulk Hogan....

and also

really appreciate your thoughts on the sticks, good stuff man.; February 23, 2011 at 10:19 AM
Anonymous said...: More news that matters:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/drinking-moderately-may-help-prevent-heart-disease-studies-say.html

Note that drinking moderately on a regular basis (France) is more healthy than weekend binge drinking (Belfast). WHOCOULDANODE?; February 23, 2011 at 10:20 AM
karen said...: Here is a real comment from me:

I do not believe that the market forecasts, discounts, or conveys anything except fear and greed.. economic realities be damned.; February 23, 2011 at 10:20 AM
ben22 said...: So anyway... looks like we're at that 1310 "gap" area...

Yup, the descending triangle measured at least to there yesterday, trying to identify what these gaps are...what was yesterday's gap? Can it be closed by bulls, or were these exhaustion gaps on the way up that are all going to get closed coming down.

I think some big players made it appear there was a little bit of buying interest late in the day yesterday so sucker some dip buyers, they "painted the tape" so to speak.

There are still stock operators.; February 23, 2011 at 10:21 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We are resting today b/c we are out of Wonga™ after our third 8% swing trade of the year (two short EMs, one lone EGPT).

Interesting today: EURUSD up, SPY down!! Correlation breakdowns. Also, see the long bond catching a bid as the Fed buys in the POMO. It will sell off this afternoon unless there is a TEOTWAWKI trade.

Generally we would be LONG of SHORT hemlines.; February 23, 2011 at 10:23 AM
CV said...: @karen

You've got some guts playing with that...

My "gut" tells me that silver, (despite looking NOSE BLEED toppy), may have higher to go...

BELIEVE ME... I'm not rooting against you here... All I own in silver is physical, and REALLY, I'd prefer for it to go down to $20 or $21 than to see it accelerate to $50 at this point...

I'm not in to HEDGING any physical with paper... So I'll just ride the price swings and watch from a distance...

I suppose I'm the "chickens***" in this crowd of bloggers...; February 23, 2011 at 10:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Here is a real comment from me:

I do not believe that the market forecasts, discounts, or conveys anything except the anticipated amount of liquidity .. economic realities be damned.; February 23, 2011 at 10:23 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

back to your dollar post:

"So I gusee that means it's going to be higher in 2014?, and then higher than that in 2017"

Nah, that's not what I'm saying, I'm simply busting the balls of trend extrapolators....I'm not even sure there will be a dollar by 2017, but that doesn't mean it can't have a large rally into 2012.

Of course, lately it can't get off the ground, but regardless, it's social mood on full display when you see people screaching that its DGDF and the lows were made 3 years ago. Sort of along the lines of my "everyone knows" post.

Trade accordingly, that's all.; February 23, 2011 at 10:24 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We are not playing this, but if you were so minded you would start TBT or buy TLT puts around here.; February 23, 2011 at 10:25 AM
CV said...: @ben

the "gap" I was referring to was on the S&P cash daily sticks between 2/4 and 2/7...

Anyway... it's covered up now...; February 23, 2011 at 10:26 AM
ben22 said...: damn CV, lots in that dollar post

1. Those are very poor H&S's with no volume confirmations which imo, you must have to trade them, that's why the failed, so they aren't relevant

2. Too many people follow the death cross, lessening the importance, again, just my opinion.

How many of those golden showers...er crosses have we seen be a non event since you set this place up?

I think lots.; February 23, 2011 at 10:27 AM
Anonymous said...: J-

check:
http://www.seura.com/

for the 'monitor behind the Mirror'-trick..

ibid.; February 23, 2011 at 10:27 AM
karen said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TJX-4Q-profit-falls-15-pct-on-apf-451740511.html?x=0

read the above.. they are raising their div..; February 23, 2011 at 10:28 AM
ben22 said...: also, I knew what gap you were talking about, i was convinced yesterday it would be closed

what I want to know though is if bulls have enough power to close that gap down yesterday, it's a tall order....; February 23, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Anonymous said...: got to Hop, I'll try to catch up later..

AAIP; February 23, 2011 at 10:33 AM
karen said...: Fortune Magazine
Major oil companies have at least $50 billion of deals with Libya. If Qaddafi falls, so will their profits. http://bit.ly/fosUmm; February 23, 2011 at 10:35 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Not much going on for us today, no active trades. NZT is stable after yesterday's Falling Knife/Kevlar Gloves activity.

We will be back in the afternoon with acerbic commentary and The Bond Report. Good luck to active trades today.

To us the obvious Big Juicy One ahead is to short crude,
but before we dive in there, we want to:

1) Watch while it goes up until Ghaddaffi offs himself
2) Listen to Peak Oil / World War 3 Loonies
3) Wait until it stops going up on "The Recovery"
4) Watch Bucky become a little firmer
5) Watch Brent soften on a weaker Euro

- and then we will short the piss out of it.; February 23, 2011 at 10:36 AM
ben22 said...: ahab,

I don't think I said those guys didn't have a method, they just don't use gann or wave

they likely trade an algo instead

I know a few dow theorists that don't trade the theory, but an algo based on it for example; February 23, 2011 at 10:36 AM
I-Man said...: Will sidestep the important conversations about the USD, etc... and skip to the fun stuff:

@ Jenn

Actually, I said I wanted an entire trading desk, not only in my bathroom, but in my kitchen as well!

@ CV

Must attain the fishing boat first... until then, I am bumming trips from friends foolish enough to let me fish their boat and catch everything, or living in my musty waders that smell like sandshrimp and roe, redman spit, and stale busch.

@ Ahab

I got a chuckle out of myself with that comment, but its the straight truth...

How do they pick trades? Just casual glances at 1min/5min charts, maybe a peek at a 15min, and then just watch our software in certain conditions to help give them a risk gauge. Half these dudes are able to watch a trade that they put on retrace all their profits and just chill, and whereas I am hopping in and out trying to protect my gains, they are just riding it all out and most of the time going home with twice the cash, and half the trades. They've been doing this a lot longer tho, and most of them learned to trade in the early 90s, so they have seen a lot.

Aside, I have seen some of this development in myself... My charts are way less cluttered than they used to be, and I find that often, I see the lines that I would have drawn to keep a frame of reference, without having to actually draw them anymore.

Bruce Lee:

"Dont think... FEEL..."; February 23, 2011 at 10:38 AM
ben22 said...: I don't subscribe to peak oil, but why is WW3 for "loonies only"

that would seem at least a decent probability at this point would it not?

I don't know jack about international military, etc. but I do know that after great stock market declines, and especially after the bursting of credit bubbles, wars are the rule not the exception.; February 23, 2011 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: actually, i think euo could be a trade today..; February 23, 2011 at 10:40 AM
Anonymous said...: WW3

Oil has to get cheaper before they can afford it; February 23, 2011 at 10:41 AM
bob said...: K

http://www.forexlive.com/168799/all/a-few-hurdles-just-above-the-market; February 23, 2011 at 10:42 AM
ben22 said...: well, there you go, no algo needed

sounds like those guys are riding the waves, just a different surf board.; February 23, 2011 at 10:42 AM
I-Man said...: That same attitude/vibe applies to trade selection as well, many of those guys will place an order to buy or short, and just wait...

They will let the market come to them, and if it doesnt, no sweat... no fret. They will take the next perfect setup for them. They will not chase.

That takes confidence, peace, and just flat out discipline.; February 23, 2011 at 10:43 AM
George Bush said...: You think you need to be able to pay for a war?

My buddy Dick says otherwise.

You guys are stupid.

Now watch me hit this drive....; February 23, 2011 at 10:43 AM
I-Man said...: The algo's just kind of put the icing on the cake...

They can be every bit as much a hurt as a help, if you arent confident in what it is YOU want to do.; February 23, 2011 at 10:43 AM
CV said...: @ben22 (10:24)

I know that's NOT what you were doing (trend extrapolation)... I know you're smarter than that...

I just couldn't resist the opportunity to give you a harmless dose of what you (rightfully) do all the time...

Which is basically, to remind everyone to DIG DEEPER into 'causality' issues...

On the dollar... I gotta tell you I'm deeply MIXED...

When I first started blogging with all you peeps, I allowed myself to get steered towards "avoiding" the DGDF drumbeat...

But I must admit that I've lost a little faith in BUCKY (in general) over the same time period... It's not because I read all the chatter on other blogs... It's because I 'sense' that that is what's going to occur...

The problem is... There may be NO WAY of anyone ever proving their theory to be correct... WHY? Because as I've said before, if the "dollar is going down" it has to go down against SOMETHING... Well guess what? Those 'somethings' are other fiat currencies (which are equally, if not MORE worthless)...

So it's really only GOING DOWN versus anything PHYSICAL that you can buy with it...

And that's NOT to make a comment on the COMEX prices on this or that (which may fluctuate)...

So for EVERYBODY concerned... it would be "more accurate" for you to read any comments I make on QEx as to loathe the "volatility" it appears to create in COMEX prices - which makes it very difficult if you're someone who wants to ACCUMULATE PHYSICAL ASSETS...

Traders can do anything they want because they are just converting one form of paper for another form of paper...

I never have any fun until I'm holding something on land that was mine, or something I can work with, store in a vault, or can eat... (and that might also posess the quality of being something someone else might readily trade for)...; February 23, 2011 at 10:45 AM
bob said...: K

Also, IE elections friday...; February 23, 2011 at 10:46 AM
karen said...: thanks, Bob, i had missed that one.. i put a limit order in but looks like it won't happen for me..; February 23, 2011 at 10:48 AM
Jennifer said...: Haven't seen 9 red hourly candles in a row in a long time...; February 23, 2011 at 10:49 AM
I-Man said...: I'm almost certain that within the next ten years we will all be swapping our dollars for some new global currency backed by a basket of commodities.

Armstrong has written some really smart shit about this lately, stuff about "units of account"...

It could actally work very well if it isnt designed by politicians who cant remember what they had for breakfast this morning.; February 23, 2011 at 10:49 AM
bob said...: It was a pretty obvious stop run. That seems to be all that is keeping EUR up these days, stops.; February 23, 2011 at 10:50 AM
Jennifer said...: I think it is really odd that my cable company has started running a lot of aqua velva ads on the CNBC channel.; February 23, 2011 at 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: They will let the market come to them, and if it doesnt, no sweat... no fret. They will take the next perfect setup for them. They will not chase.

That takes confidence, peace, and just flat out discipline.

Agreed!

Also some days it is "don't just do something, sit there.."

Like today!; February 23, 2011 at 10:50 AM
CV said...: Truth be told...

I still think silver is going to climb higher (short term), crude will probably rise in the short term...

And I think "bucky" is headed for a date with 70...

That's JMO (and I realize it puts me in the acute MINORITY on this blog)...; February 23, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Women live an Ice Blue aqua velva man...

It is velva, right?; February 23, 2011 at 10:51 AM
I-Man said...: Unless you're using Vulva Water as aftershave, LB...; February 23, 2011 at 10:53 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

"Armstrong has written some really smart shit about this lately, stuff about "units of account"...

Ever read FOFOA's ideas on FREEGOLD?; February 23, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: BUCKY 70 probably equates to WTI 150-200.

Let's hope we don't see that. Not a chance IMHO.
Demand destruction would break everything.

- even the Helicopter.; February 23, 2011 at 10:53 AM
bob said...: I haven't seen CNBC in forever, how are Caruso and Cabrera's doing?; February 23, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Anonymous said...: ............................!

(ROTF.....); February 23, 2011 at 10:54 AM
I-Man said...: I often think of Morpheus from the Matrix when I think deeply about trading...

"You think you need those Gann angles and cycle dates to trade?

You think thats air you're breathing right now?"

LOL.; February 23, 2011 at 10:55 AM
MCC said...: how are Caruso and Cabrera's doing?

We are still one of the nastiest right-wing supply side bitches on Television. We are hoping for a mud wrestling deal with Ann Coulter.; February 23, 2011 at 10:55 AM
Mr Smith said...: This market really is The Matrix.

Hello, Mr Anderson.; February 23, 2011 at 10:56 AM
karen said...: Look at the AMZN daily chart.. remember we talked about a possible dble top? still looking that way.. would love to get some of that around 151..; February 23, 2011 at 10:56 AM
ben22 said...: "On the dollar... I gotta tell you I'm deeply MIXED..."

How could any of us feel any other way?

I follow the dollar sentiment on the trade futures, it's amazingly bearish and has generally been so for a long time now. I just keep in mind that the charts could show a big rally here and so I remember that just being on the other side of the herd when it's at an extreme doesn't make me right, it just increases my odds. I have tiny tiny dollar positions on for clients, I'll add to the trade if it starts to work, otherwise I put a stop loss in place and that's that.

overall though, I'm with the I-man on this

we are going to a global currency, Im fairly confident I'll see that in my lifetime, in fact, I only think it will take one more crisis and I'm thinking that could be on our doorstep.; February 23, 2011 at 10:56 AM
Mr Shorty said...: Where is Cold Steel???; February 23, 2011 at 10:56 AM
Cold Steel said...: I am right behind you, son....; February 23, 2011 at 10:56 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Funsters who followed my TBT call above are already green.

Just send the check....; February 23, 2011 at 10:58 AM
AmenRa said...: Gold is above the upper trend line on the daily chart. A retest of recent highs is underway.; February 23, 2011 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: Libyan oil output down by as much as a quarter http://goo.gl/iYKn6; February 23, 2011 at 10:58 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

re: AMZN, even better than a dbl top, two weeks I pointed out that could develop to a broadening top

that's even more bearish....

and it keeps the dip buyers coming back!; February 23, 2011 at 10:59 AM
bob said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/32913196/Why_Chicken_Feet_Matter_to_Business_News

Still one of my all time favorite pieces of analysis.; February 23, 2011 at 11:00 AM
CV said...: @Bucky the Talking Currency

"BUCKY 70 probably equates to WTI 150-200"

I don't necessarily think so....

WTI hit it's peak in "pre-China Olympics" time...

Built into that was:

- speculation on the "China growth story"
- high margins

also, (not necessarily a WTI issue directly), but SUPERMAX tanker day rates were $200,000 back in those days... Today they're around $20,000...

We're not seeing much break at the pumps because they are basically "slow boating" stuff around in storage WAITING for delivery contracts to come in...

Anyway - I can't say what will happen, and you may be right... But I have my mind wrapped around the idea that it might not be as cut and dried as 2008...; February 23, 2011 at 11:02 AM
karen said...: my opinion.. if UUP holds today's low.. the dollar is NGDFE.. there will be a sell off in gold and silver.. that fact that it is not $1680 already tells me that loud and clear.. and as for silver, a short squeeze that will leave the longs in tears.; February 23, 2011 at 11:02 AM
CV said...: "We are still one of the nastiest right-wing supply side bitches on Television. We are hoping for a mud wrestling deal with Ann Coulter"

That would be epic!; February 23, 2011 at 11:03 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: As per Macro Man yesterday, Libya + Egypt is ~2% of global production. So this is really just DGDF and the spex. It's not real.

My interpretation of today's mini-DGDF is this:

Next week is OFFICIAL BEND THE EURO OVER WEEK after the Irish erections, and anticipated bondholder haircuts, Euro bank carnage and Euro debt bailout discussions. We know this.

So... why not bid the f*cker up this week? Why, simple, so that the short entry is cheaper and at the same time one can administer Cold Steel to the early entrants who jumped the gun.

Think like the Weasel.; February 23, 2011 at 11:03 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Gold and silver clavadista must wait for:

1) Some kind of stability in N Africa
2) Resolution of Irish and Portuguese crises
3) BUCKY making a really strong break out of congestion zone

But it is coming. Perhaps after crude breaks down?

For now, I agree that short EURUSD is obvious and tasty.; February 23, 2011 at 11:06 AM
I-Man said...: "By creating a ONE WORLD RESERVE currency, we will isolate domestic policy from international and that will help to reduce economic tensions. The way this works is simply a UNIT OF ACCOUNT, not an actual circulating currency. Each nation would retain its OWN currency and that would float against the RESERVE CURRENCY. Commodities would trade in the RESERVE, such as oil, gold, wheat, etc. To purchase any, one would then pay in his local currency at the rate on the exchange. This way, if a nation wants to increase its money supply to offset domestic economic problems, it can do so without exporting that effect to others because its currency is the RESERVE currency."

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Assent%20of%20China%20the%20New%20Face%20of%20China%201-25-2011.pdf; February 23, 2011 at 11:06 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/brent-passes-110

Brent 110 - this is a big driver of the DGDF.

Italian CDS blowing out faster than Berlusconi after a night with a 15 year old. Every day something happens that makes you say WTF?; February 23, 2011 at 11:10 AM
bob said...: Berlusconi will just announce another "tax amnesty" to get all of that running money from N africa back into Italy, via chf.; February 23, 2011 at 11:12 AM
CV said...: ...on this

"we are going to a global currency, Im fairly confident I'll see that in my lifetime, in fact, I only think it will take one more crisis and I'm thinking that could be on our doorstep..."

---

I'll come down on the side of being MIXED on this...

Let me frame it this way...

I'm pretty sure that upon the next crisis, THAT will be atop the list of proposals for a solution...

Problems?

1. Who issues the currency and what is it backed by?

Right there you have a problem (because naturally one must assume that the larger HOLDERS of what it's going to be backed by are going to want the LARGEST SEATS AT THE TABLE when it comes to policy making - unless you naively believe that the Fed, the ECB, the ChiComs, Japanese, Russians, Bank Of England, et all are just going to hold hands and sing kumbaya)...

Think GERMANY (and the Euro)... Which is turning into a failed experiment...

Frankly, I don't see why the US or the Fed would want to ever lose reserve status of the dollar...

"Come pry it out of my cold dead hands", I feel, would be the mantra...

And that may just happen... But the WAY for all that to happen would be to GANGBANG the dollar...

So the ONLY way to get the US to come to the table on this is to confiscate all the PHYSICAL METAL on the planet and offer it as an alternative...

Then when the dollar risked LOSING its ability to settle any accounts, America would be FORCED to come to the table...

We're still aways from that scenario because the "supposed" PM holdings are still relatively low in China and other important places...

I've said this before... I think the Fed actually knows this and is actually printing it's own fiats in the same mad scramble to convert to PHYSICAL...

I'm sure there will be WAVES in the process (and we may be near the top of one of those waves now)... But I also think there are many more "innings" to this game...; February 23, 2011 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: an elliot strategy on the euro..

http://www.youtube.com/user/marketvisiontv?feature=mhum#p/u/0/kXphtOpCyzw; February 23, 2011 at 11:25 AM
Jennifer said...: AAPL on the move now. Can't tell you how many times I write aapl juice on the grocery list.; February 23, 2011 at 11:26 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

Just guessing of course

I don't think it will be backed by anything and I don't think anything will be issued, it's all electric(onic)

boogie oogie woogie

Who is the body that runs the global currency

IMF; February 23, 2011 at 11:33 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 5y auction at 1pm. Expecting a lukewarm reception at these yields. The 7y is likely to be stronger tomorrow.

You can probably dial up a STEEPENER right now, with the 30y POMO behind us and the 5y auction dead ahead.; February 23, 2011 at 11:41 AM
AmenRa said...: Ice is thinner than expected...; February 23, 2011 at 11:41 AM
ben22 said...: ROR ra

you think we'll be calling 911 by Friday?

Where's Wyclef when you need him?; February 23, 2011 at 11:43 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: SPX about to penetrate into that 1302-1308 zone that we expect to form first support. We would be (short-term) sellers of the long bond at the day's prior 4.55% level ahead of the auction.; February 23, 2011 at 11:43 AM
The Japanese Yen said...: I am strong today.; February 23, 2011 at 11:45 AM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: I am far from extinct.; February 23, 2011 at 11:45 AM
The Long Bond said...: I am almost as vigorous as Gary Shilling.; February 23, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Gary Shilling said...: That's my boy....; February 23, 2011 at 11:46 AM
CV said...: @ben

But don't you think that sounds 'far fetched'???

Step it out for a moment (getting from HERE to THERE)...

1. The Fed, the ECB, BOJ, Bank of England, et al. who as entities, have the ability to basically do whatever they please (accounting wise, flow wise, etc.)... Nevermind if all it creates is havoc... As long as it's YOUR HAVOC, you're OK...

2. They're all just going to up and CEASE with that power? You're asking an awful lot there...

Hell, the Bank of England wanted NOTHING TO DO with the Euro... If England doesn't want to join the Euro, I doubt others are going to want to get into bed with sworn enemies...

Nobody is interested in world peace or harmony...

They'd rather have chaos & profits...

It's the way it's always been...

Electronic currency is something for internet hacks to conjure up playing their virtual games...

Great... Then even if it happens, then somebody detonates an EMP and all stored balances get flashed out of existence...

I don't know... I guess I'm just not Buck Rogers enough in my thinking...; February 23, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty,

Sold my long bonds about an hour ago.

Let's hope you are right, and me too..; February 23, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Anonymous said...: The market is in the red.
If we close down, that means....; February 23, 2011 at 11:47 AM
I-Man said...: Pay me, dip buyers.

Pay I.; February 23, 2011 at 11:47 AM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Nobody is interested in world peace or harmony...
They'd rather have chaos & profits...

DANG. They figured out our secret, Giles.; February 23, 2011 at 11:48 AM
Giles Straightarrow said...: Nothing like a bit of SUCTION on a cold Wednesday, Lloyd.

I mean, Sire...; February 23, 2011 at 11:49 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

who said anything about giving up power?

I'm talking about them centralizing and then telling people it's safer.

I hardly think a global currency is about world peace or harmony, it's about control....

and what's bigger than controlling the whole worlds money supply?

And if electronic currency is a video game idea, I must be living in a different world than you.

How many people were carrying around an Amex Platinum card during the Tulip bubble?

to me, going totally electric is the next logical step, we move forward on these things, not back to the stone ages; February 23, 2011 at 11:50 AM
karen said...: anyone look at gs or c today?? faz at hod, in anycase..; February 23, 2011 at 11:51 AM
CV said...: One person's opinion on Bucky (&QE3)...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dollar-plummets-expectations-qe3-spread

"While it is not surprising that the Swiss Franc is surging almost as much as silver in today's flight to safety episode, and even "value investor" Whitney Tilson is rumored to be shorting Netflix again after topticking his cover with immaculate perfection, what is a little disturbing is that the dollar has plunged to the lowest levels since February 3. The reason, of course, is that with global unrest spreading like Molotov cocktail fire, and implied US GDP plunging by 5% in the past week on the hike in oil prices, it is becoming very evident that the recovery myth is now over, despite claims by the NAR charlatans, and another round of quantitative easing is almost inevitable. What that means for the dollar is precisely what one can see on the chart below. As for the use of funds in the upcoming QE episode, perhaps the Fed can instruct the Primary Dealers to go out and buy some WTI this time instead of just crowding into Apple and REITs..."

I wish I could argue and say he was FOS... But I have no compelling comeback...; February 23, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-12549785

The UK having fun with municipal cuts. If we fail as a trader, we fancy "bouncy castle attendant" for a future career.; February 23, 2011 at 11:52 AM
ben22 said...: and also, one of the key social predictions in the original EWP was that along with the massive fifth wave predicted in stocks in that book in from the 70's was a period of time where there would be no major global wars.

Sorry, but peace and harmony, those tend to be bull market moods, you know, when big profits happen.; February 23, 2011 at 11:52 AM
karen said...: yikes, and wfc.. some of those are under the 50ema.. and looking ugly; February 23, 2011 at 11:52 AM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: We will see DXY 90 in 2012.
We will live to see DXY 100.; February 23, 2011 at 11:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Happiness is a lack of index longs.; February 23, 2011 at 11:53 AM
ben22 said...: I don't think it's evident that the "recovery myth is over"

lots of dip buyers all over, get out of the house some (step away from this blog)

but, lets just entertain the idea that this thought is correct

then the Wizard has made a severe tactical error in when he implemented QE2

think it through.....; February 23, 2011 at 11:54 AM
karen said...: but sure, sure, sure, the fed or treasury can buy up all those billions of shares and shore up the prices..
c, 29.1 billion
bac, 10.1 b
wfc, 5 b (only!) perhaps not TBTF!
jpm, 3.8 b; February 23, 2011 at 11:55 AM
I-Man said...: Someone just got pantsed schoolyard style...; February 23, 2011 at 11:58 AM
karen said...: this is scary!! http://www.zerohedge.com/article/geithner-says-not-worry-about-surging-oil-prices-central-banks-have-lot-experience-managing-; February 23, 2011 at 11:58 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: My divvys are actually green. A TALE OF TWO MARKETS.
The "BS" market of GROPE STOCKS and the REAL market.

No Bond Report today, have a meeting that will eat up the close.
I know that someone will step into the breach, so enjoy!; February 23, 2011 at 11:58 AM
Anonymous said...: Swiss Franc
silver
flight to safety episode
"value investor" Whitney Tilson
shorting Netflix
the dollar has plunged to the lowest levels
global unrest spreading
Molotov cocktail fire
US GDP plunging by 5%
the hike in oil prices,
recovery myth is now over
NAR charlatans,
QE episode
Fed
the Primary Dealers
buy some WTI
Apple and REITs..."

ZH pick a phrase for new content.; February 23, 2011 at 12:00 PM
karen said...: uso at 40..; February 23, 2011 at 12:00 PM
CV said...: @ben (11:50)

That's the thing... I think we DO move back to the stone ages...

"Centralizing" means a committee... That never ends well... Germany is cursing the day they ever signed on to the Euro...

I think it's more likely that all these "zones" actually break apart and fend for themselves in the end...

It took the better part of 300+ years for Rome to go from gleaming city to sheep fields...

---

And think... Even if the opposite were to happen... We get all centrally organized and efficient... Well - that would still require some kind of "growth" scenario to occur (unless you envision a world of slaves & masters)...

6 billion and counting? all consuming like WESTERNERS?

Don't think so (unless Mars starts sprouting some wheat fields)...; February 23, 2011 at 12:00 PM
I-Man said...: We could be making our low in the next half hour...

Then the drama squad takes over...; February 23, 2011 at 12:01 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12550326

The HOUSE OF SAUD had a bad back
- was in NY getting herniated disk sorted out.

Now handing out bennies to his subjects.; February 23, 2011 at 12:02 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

I gotta go, but I agree it wont' end well, never implied that it would, the collapse of that system, and it will happen, will be epic, maybe after that they trade space rocks as money.

I don't see us reverting back, the path of man is up, just my view, we have corrections along the way, idiots think P3 is the end of the world, it's just a correction, but one that will feel like the end for people that live it.

As for this

"unless you envision a world of slaves & masters"

gee, you mean a world kinda like now, kinda like always?

that's right I do...because I don't think people change.; February 23, 2011 at 12:03 PM
Anonymous said...: We could be making our low in the next half hour...

Yup. No BIG ONES while CRUDE holds up ENERGY stocks.
Market can't fall far on FLATION scares.

It's been a lovely little pull-back. Exquisite, really.

Time to focus on EUROSTRICHES.; February 23, 2011 at 12:04 PM
I-Man said...: YM 12089 should complete the circle from 1/30/11...; February 23, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: "unless you envision a world of slaves & masters"

Smirk.; February 23, 2011 at 12:04 PM
CV said...: "a period of time where there would be no major global wars..."

There have been no major GLOBAL WARS since WW2...

All the rest are regional skirmishes...

You can't count "length" or "turf" as a factor... (Iraq-Afghanistan isn't a global war, neither was Vietnam, or the Korean peninsula)...; February 23, 2011 at 12:05 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty,

When you fixed income traders have a meeting..what do you say to open the meeting?

You know, like the boy scouts recite the scout's oath...that sort of thing.

..just wondering.; February 23, 2011 at 12:06 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Stocks down, long bond can't get going.

Fascinating isn't it?; February 23, 2011 at 12:06 PM
EEM said...: I am green. Hard to believe isn't it?; February 23, 2011 at 12:08 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: perhaps oil at 98+ is producing a jamming of the signal...; February 23, 2011 at 12:08 PM
CV said...: I was going to say "kind of like today" (slaves and masters), but I didn't because I KNEW somebody would pick up on it...

It's incredible to me how most Americans don't realize that they are, in fact, SLAVES or INDENTURED SERVANTS even at this moment...; February 23, 2011 at 12:08 PM
CV said...: Amazing what a big screen TV will do; February 23, 2011 at 12:08 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: When you fixed income traders have a meeting..what do you say to open the meeting?

Where are the bagels (morning) pizza (lunch) or donuts (afternoon)?; February 23, 2011 at 12:10 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I knew it! Ya'll all were once cops!; February 23, 2011 at 12:11 PM
Yield Hog said...: JNK Green
NLY Green
TLT Green
XLE Green

Yield is popular today as well as oil.; February 23, 2011 at 12:12 PM
Anonymous said...: We will probably make a low around here before the auction.
Buying ERX yesterday would be the NKI today.; February 23, 2011 at 12:14 PM
EEM said...: I am up because of Russia (oil) and Brazil (oil).
Not china and india which are f*cked.; February 23, 2011 at 12:17 PM
Jennifer said...: Karen -- re: FAZ hod, that's why I love the puts on the leveraged etfs. You get the implosion of the leverage and the underlying at the same time. March 30 FAS puts bought at EOD fri up more than 200% as of now. Of course, this strategy only works at significant turns. But when it works, its a doozy.; February 23, 2011 at 12:17 PM
I-Man said...: This could be it...

Low at 12086 so far...

The I has covered and is taking his girl out for pancakes.; February 23, 2011 at 12:18 PM
karen said...: Fantastic, Jennifer !! : ); February 23, 2011 at 12:19 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Saw your post yesterday of the low due today I-Man. Very nice...; February 23, 2011 at 12:20 PM
Anonymous said...: We bought some more NZT and we hedged our Tsys.
Nothing big. Playing small ball for a couple of days.

that's why I love the puts on the leveraged etfs. You get the implosion of the leverage and the underlying at the same time

+ 100 !!; February 23, 2011 at 12:21 PM
I-Man said...: A long swing trade initiated at the first higher low on the 5min chart could do real well...

If you wanna be safer, go with the next higher 15min low.; February 23, 2011 at 12:22 PM
karen said...: EEM is not up, btw.. neither is RSX.. or EWZ
EDC down 2.33%; February 23, 2011 at 12:23 PM
bob said...: K, on eur

That 1.3745 level on the video...; February 23, 2011 at 12:24 PM
karen said...: spy broke down.. dia hanging tight on the 20...
Qs tagged the 50! are we there yet?; February 23, 2011 at 12:26 PM
Jennifer said...: mmm...pancakes.; February 23, 2011 at 12:26 PM
karen said...: Housing Wire
Bank failures hit 18-year high in 2010 http://goo.gl/fb/mvPyO #hw

you would never know that looking at FAZ..; February 23, 2011 at 12:27 PM
karen said...: NZT isn't gonna bounce.. look how ugly that chart is!; February 23, 2011 at 12:28 PM
karen said...: 99.95 crude! $150 next?; February 23, 2011 at 12:31 PM
karen said...: quiet everyone, Hoenig is speaking:

Joe Saluzzi
Fed's Hoenig says U.S. has deeply undermined free market capitalism

Hoenig says we must break up the largest banks

(joe must be joking..); February 23, 2011 at 12:33 PM
CV said...: "Stocks down, long bond can't get going.

Fascinating isn't it?"

---

Add "dollar down", crude up, PM's up...

Could it be that the new FLIGHT TO SAFETY is in PHYSICAL?; February 23, 2011 at 12:33 PM
karen said...: amazning! http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-wow-feds-hoenig-says-united-states-has-deeply-undermined-free-market-capitalism; February 23, 2011 at 12:35 PM
karen said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/biggest-banks-must-be-broken-up-feds-hoenig-2011-02-23; February 23, 2011 at 12:36 PM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/fool-me-once…/; February 23, 2011 at 12:38 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Comments from Rosie about the effects of oil price increases:

http://pragcap.com/the-deflationary-shock

THE DEFLATIONARY SHOCK….

22 February 2011 by Cullen Roche

David Rosenberg makes some interesting comments in his morning note regarding the price action in US Treasuries. He cites the rally as a sign that the world is concerned about the deflationary shocks from rising oil prices:

“It is also interesting to see how government bond markets are reacting to the oil price surge — by rallying, not selling off. In other words, bond market investors are treating this latest series of events overseas as a deflationary shock.”

I think Rosey has this one spot on. The risk of rising oil is not a hyperinflationary spiral, but rather a deflationary spiral. Oil price increases are cost push inflation of the worst kind and for a country still mired in a balance sheet recession that means spending gets diverted which only gives the appearance of inflation in (highly visible) gas prices while creating deflationary trends in most (less visible) other assets (have a look at today’s Case Shiller housing report for instance).; February 23, 2011 at 12:38 PM
CV said...: @karen

Tomorrow's headlines today...

"Hoenig dies in tragic boating mishap!"; February 23, 2011 at 12:39 PM
Jennifer said...: Hmmm....dip buyers don't seem to be getting the message today.; February 23, 2011 at 12:43 PM
Anonymous said...: "I've said this before... I think the Fed actually knows this and is actually printing it's own fiats in the same mad scramble to convert to PHYSICAL..."

interesting theory; February 23, 2011 at 12:43 PM
Andy T said...: Probably worth noting that the 61.8% retrace on WTI comes in around 103.5....; February 23, 2011 at 12:45 PM
Anonymous said...: "Could it be that the new FLIGHT TO SAFETY is in PHYSICAL?"

that exact thought has been on my mind; February 23, 2011 at 12:52 PM
karen said...: thanks, andy.. that's good to know..
bruce, i posted that yesterday !! : ); February 23, 2011 at 12:52 PM
karen said...: SPY has a glaring gap at 119 but i cannot imagine going there..; February 23, 2011 at 12:54 PM
karen said...: glaring DIA gap from first trading day of he year.. 115-116.. that would wipe out all 2011 gains.. but again, no way.; February 23, 2011 at 12:55 PM
CV said...: @Andy

Have you taken any kind of look on what type of RETRACE "brent" did from it's former highs to now...

Brent's north of $110 now...; February 23, 2011 at 12:56 PM
karen said...: bearish hammer forming on USO 30 min? watching it for follow thru..; February 23, 2011 at 12:59 PM
CV said...: @ahab (12:52)

Speaking of PHYSICAL... When all is said and done, and the history books are written, this whole ponzi scheme might be the biggest LAND GRAB in history...

The banks will just turn themselves into into landlords...

CRE is next...

The only job to do at this point is to keep it going as long as possible...; February 23, 2011 at 1:06 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Sorry, Karen.

You know I hang on your every word!; February 23, 2011 at 1:06 PM
CV said...: "Today's useless trivia:

Today is 666 days from 12/21/2012..."; February 23, 2011 at 1:15 PM
karen said...: well, my question from yesterday got answered.. edz could indeed get to 24.. 24.14 at the moment.; February 23, 2011 at 1:15 PM
Anonymous said...: tell me why I sold my QID yesterday?; February 23, 2011 at 1:18 PM
Jennifer said...: So much for that higher low....BTD isn't working today.; February 23, 2011 at 1:18 PM

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Morning Corner 2.23.11

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