AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane: Rejected again. Marketman playing pretty good defense (but is out of breath now).

SPX
Dragonfly doji day again (also confirmed dragonfly from yesterday). Still refusers to go higher. Still holding above 1110. Back above the SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Weekly 3LB reversal (shady). Above the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1102.66). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated and also 80.95 (fib .09). Tested and passed the 38.2% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 81.54).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) and below the SMA(144). New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 24.25).



GOLD
Bullish long day. Above the SMA(21) and the SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 14.6% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal still 1158.60). Tested but failed the weekly 3LB reversal price (but we're close).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Held the SMA(144). Holding above 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3076).



JNK
Doji day (also confirmed hanging man). Didn't test the 76.4% retrace. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



GS
Spinning top day (confirmed bearish harami). Still above the SMA(144) for now. Midpoint above the EMA(10). The 38.2% retrace (153.99) was tested and held. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 152.58).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. The 14.6% retrace is relegated to history. The 0.0% retrace at 28.83 has been beaten (new 0.0% coming). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 31.14).



DJ TRANS AVG
Hanging man day again (which also confirmed hanging man). Another refusal to push higher. Still trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4369.71).



PORK BELLIES
Doji day. Limit up again? Buy now before the store realizes it. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 109.50).

Morning Audibles 8.6.10

"PORK BELLIES... I knew it!" (Winthorpe - Trading Places 1982)

I know, CV is just being moronic this morning (a phenomenon which is often unavoidable)... But, you know, you have to SEIZE THE DAY and there's nothing much to really SEIZE these days (based on my understanding of the word "seize")...



seize   [seez]
–verb (used with object)
1.
to take hold of suddenly or forcibly; grasp: to seize a weapon.
2.
to grasp mentally; understand clearly and completely: to seize an idea.
3.
to take possession of by force or at will: to seize enemy ships.
4.
to take possession or control of as if by suddenly laying hold: Panic seized the crowd.
5.
to take possession of by legal authority; confiscate: to seize smuggled goods.

Looking at the markets and the economy these days, one ban begin to understand why (although the latter two definitions ought to arrive at out doorstep at some point or another)...

So since there is not much to seize, let's get back to the subject of PORK BELLIES...

Romer To Leave White House

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/08/romer_to_leave.php

So I guess "Chicks Can't Do Math" (Larry Summers) was really the man, behind the woman, behind the man, after all... When interviewed about the truth to such speculation, Summers leaned over and replied...

I fart in opposite your general direction

Why is it that the only two that are smiling in what "looks" to be a police interrogation room, are the first ones who are abandoning spaceship Obama?

Why would anyone one want to leave in the middle of this blistering RECOVERY? I mean, surely accolades & awards for such an enormous feat of accomplishment should be just around the corner... Right? I mean, there are Nobel Prize awards just a few months away... You should be standing in line to receive yours like this guy...

Stiglitz Says U.S. Faces `Anemic Recovery,' Needs More Stimulus

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-05/stiglitz-says-anemic-u-s-recovery-means-obama-should-seek-more-stimulus.html

“It’s absolutely clear that you need a second round of stimulus,” Stiglitz said. “It needs to be better designed. It needs to be focused more on returns on investment, education, infrastructure, technology. And if you do those kinds of high- powered investments, the long-term national debt will be actually lower and the growth in the future will be higher.”

“Unfortunately, with savings going up to 5, 6, 7 percent, aggregate demand is going to be weak,” he said. “The only thing to fill it is government.”

Let's see... CV was just commenting yesterday about the ROI (return on investment) on education...

CV said...

@anon

Worse than that is the HIDDEN INFLATION of tuition...

meaning: The ROI of what someone paid for tuition in, say, 1980 and eventual wages & salaries pocketed

VERSUS

What you pay today, and what one might expect the ROI on eventual wages & salaries, going forward, to be (and the amount they will be TAXED on those wages - the SOCIAL SECURITY deduction & the idea that they will probably never receive the social security payment when all is said & done)...

August 5, 2010 11:23 AM 

CV said...

I've JOKINGLY said before that if someone has a "college age" teenage daughter (and she's attractive)...

If your goal is a real dollar return... a better ROI might be to buy her a pole and some dancing lessons rather than pay 4 years of college tuition...

In the end - both probably bring about the same atmosphere...

In one scenario she leaves with a pile of loot

In the other she leaves with a mountain of debt (then to pay off that debt has to basically go pole dancing in the business world anyway to get ahead)...

Of course I'm just JOKING here...

We know colleges and businesses are upstanding and reputable places that produce worthy graduates of scholar...

August 5, 2010 11:29 AM 

Of course I should be booted from the blogosphere for making what would appear (on the surface) to be a sexist comment (just as anyone who criticizes Obama's economic policies is clearly a racist)...

But lo and behold, last night I find this article...

Stripper Finds Degree Profitable for Goldman Wasn't Worth It

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-05/stripper-s-college-degree-profitable-for-goldman-finds-70-000-was-wasted.html

Excerpt:

"Her bachelor’s degree in game art and design cost $70,000 in tuition and fees. After she graduated in December 2007, she found a job that paid $12 an hour recruiting employees for video game companies. She lost that job a year later when her department was shuttered."

"These days, Howard, 26, makes her living in a way that doesn’t require a college diploma: by stripping at the Lido Cabaret, a topless club in Cocoa Beach, Florida. “I didn’t know what else to do,” she says. “I’ve got a worthless degree. It’s like I didn’t attend school at all.”"

Maybe CV should be a guidance counselor?

So whatever... people... I now return you to your CAPITALISTIC endeavors (which include watching the government shred documents announce reports, and all the red and green candles that that produces)...

Meanwhile... Regardless if the NFP report looks bad/good or sugarcoated, you can go into the weekend and sleep soundly knowing that since Romer is returning to Berkeley, that's considered a "new position" in academia is ANOTHER JOB SAVED BY THE STIMULUS...



F411 "knew it" all along (just like our friend Winthorpe)...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane: I can only come in if I'm invited.

SPX
Dragonfly doji day. Refused to go higher. Still holding above 1110. Back above the SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1110.88). Above the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1102.66). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated and also 80.95 (fib .09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.64).



VIX
Bearish long day. Smashed inverted hammer. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) and below the SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.25).



GOLD
Doji day. Above the SMA(21) and the SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 14.6% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1158.60).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Held the SMA(144). Holding above 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2988).



JNK
Hanging man day (about time). Didn't test the 76.4% retrace. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



GS
Bearish harami day (plus todays candle within body of previous candle). Still above the SMA(144). Still above 147.91 (fib .236). Midpoint above the EMA(10). The 38.2% retrace (153.99) held. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 152.58).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (did close below midpoint of previous day). The 14.6% retrace is relegated to history. The 0.0% retrace at 28.83 is eagerly waiting. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).



DJ TRANS AVG
Hanging man day (with a long tail). Another refusal to push higher. Still trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4369.71).



XHB
Doji day (but first day is too small for doji to indicate reversal). Below all SMA's. Still below 38.2% retrace. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.20).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.5.10

Today was pretty much a MIRROR IMAGE of yesterday's action in the credit markets. So that means if you stand on your head and read the REPORT from yesterday, you are GOOD TO GO, homies...

Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG 0.12%; JNK -0.10%; HYG -0.05%;
Govies: TLT 0.47%; IEI 0.27%; TIP 0.37%

We did nothing. We are bearish equities here after a few fails at 1225-1230 area, and we don't buy the quadruple bottom (or is it quintuple) in TNX as a springboard for a massive bond bloodbath as we celebrate the economic recovery....

Morning Audibles 8.5.10 - It's Just a Shot Away

Oh, a storm is threat'ning 

My very life today 

If I don't get some shelter 

Oh yeah, I'm gonna fade away

War, children, it's just a shot away 

It's just a shot away 

War, children, it's just a shot away 

It's just a shot away

Ooh, see the fire is sweepin' 

Our very street today 

Burns like a red coal carpet 

Mad bull lost its way

Here are a few other occasions, in 2010, that the MAD BULL lost its way - (notice the blue circle & associated low volume days - contrast that with the red circles/huge volume)...

And what does that mean for the 10yy? Look where the yield was during previous low volume equity melt-ups... Triple bottom at present... Is there such a thing?

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane: I've fallen and I can't get up!

SPX
Bullish short day. Killed bearish harami. Still holding above 1110. Back above the SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1110.88). Above the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1102.66). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated and also 80.95 (fib .09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.64).



VIX
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) and below the SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.25).



GOLD
Bullish short day. Above the SMA(21) and the SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1195.70).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested and failed the SMA(144). Holding above 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2988).



JNK
Bearish short day. Tested and failed the 76.4% retrace. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



GS
Bullish long day. Closed above the SMA(144). Still above 147.91 (fib .236). Midpoint above the EMA(10). The 38.2% retrace (153.99) was tested and passed. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 152.58).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Well below the 14.6% retrace. Almost touched the 0.0% retrace at 28.83 but ran away. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Destroyed the bearish harami. Still trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4369.71).




LQD
Doji day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 109.62).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.4.10

Not much good to say about fixed income today as investors abandoned bonds in droves, no not really, but there was probably some selling after a strong week or so in the bond market. Auctions ahead next week, so not unexpected. The 5y got whacked, but that was yesterday's big winner.

Corpies: LQD -0.31%; AGG -0.18%; JNK -0.23%; HYG -0.06%;
Govies: TLT -0.77%; IEI -0.33%; TIP -0.34%

We did nothing, although we remain alert, ready to buy on any deep selling of Treasuries this month. Basically we are totally convinced that interest rate risks remain low here, it's not like we are going to create a million jobs any time soon, right Mr Obama? Yup. Thought not...

Morning Audibles 8.4.10

This is the 2nd attempt at this exercise...


Back near the April 1220 highs in the S&P, I had a post which reflected how the largest "weighted" stocks (DOW weights are ranked by stock price) seemed to have been a large ingredient of the "secret sauce" that seemed to be pulling the overall indices farther than they seemed to need to go based on the overall economic environment... 


It seemed STOCK PRICES were on a mission (and both the DOW & S&P were close to 61.8% re-tracement levels of the moves from the October 2007 highs to the March '09 lows)... 


What was UNCANNY to me though was the fact that many of the largest components of the DOW seemed to be doing the lions share of the work... Many had fully recovered their 2007 highs, and some were nearing ALL TIME HIGHS...


Here's a quick look at the largest DOW components since the April 2010 highs:

IBM

Nearing FULL RE-TRACE  - Nearing ALL TIME HIGH

 MMM

Nearing FULL RE-TRACE  - Near ALL TIME HIGH

CVX

Well beyond 61.8% re-trace  - At July '08 levels (pre-China Olympics)

UTX

Past 61.8% re-trace  - At October '07 levels

MCD

HAS FULLY RE-TRACED April  - Within a buck of ALL TIME HIGH

CAT

Nearing FULL RE-TRACE  - At July '08 levels (pre-China Olympics)

BA

At 61.8% re-trace - Very close to decade long reverse H&S

---WHAT ABOUT SOME TRANSPORTS?---

UPS

Past 61.8% re-trace - Very close to reverse H&S (from '07)

---SMALL CAP INDEX---

$RUT

Small Caps have lagged the July moves in the large DOW components (yet the $RUT was "late to the party" in doing the DEATH CROSS)...

$INDU

DEATH CROSSED earlier on, but now it seems hell bent on erasing that from memory... Note that many of the above listed DOW components haven't DEATH CROSSED at all (McDonald's is hardly even close)...

There is nothing necessarily sinister about this phenomenon... In fact, it may be very close to reflecting either some economic reality and/or technical reality... 

What I noted (in looking back further), is that the same type of phenomenon occurred in the period between October 2007 - September 2008... These same stocks performed VERY WELL during that time period (while the rest of the market, namely financials, were "teetering" and/or getting cannibalized)... It's as if money that was in equities for investment tended to stay in these names for no other reason other than that were performing decently on a technical basis (not doing DEATH CROSSES or terrible things like that)... After all, we know most "Brian's" out there probably only look a a chart once every few years or so...

Perhaps, (on a relative basis), they're doing well now on certain fundamental merits such as:

- cost reductions

- halfway decent balance sheets

- decent cash flow

- better credit ratings (or access to credit)

Basically - "at least they don't SUCK"...

Maybe it's a simple matter of yields being so low on Treasuries, some money is being used to RENT OUT dividend yields for a brief period of time... Though it's hard for CV to wrap his head around that "risk-reward" phenomenon and give it green light...

But it would also seem that the comparisons to the Oct 2007 - September 2008 timeframe is undeniable... So it would also seem that sooner or later the stocks themselves will be exposed to any hiccup in the system that forced the type of mass liquidations which were brought about by the Lehman crisis...

When giants fall, the earth shakes... Or in other terms, you don't want to lose your best horses who are pulling the chariot...