TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.24.11

Morning Corner 2.24.11

ES (daily info)
new low 1305.50
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1305.50
rev= 1342.50; mid= 1324.00

ES daily candle doesn't look like a reversal. This could be a morning star starting to form but we're not really in a downtrend…yet. But failing to close above the weekly 3LB mid continues to indicate weakness. The new candle forming isn't screaming strength.

Swiss Franc (monthly info)
no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 1.0714
rev= 0.8360; mid= 0.9537

Now at all time highs. Intervention failed last year. Not sure what they may have to do to get CHF lower. The more Europe implodes the higher it will go. Last month formed a bearish harami but that will not get confirmed. Currently the month may close higher and will begin trending up on the monthly 3LB.

Get your mind right before the absurdity of the market drives you insane...

349 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 349 Newer› Newest»

Anonymous said...: as an aside..

"If a thousand [citizens] were not to pay their tax-bills this year, that would not be a violent and bloody measure, as it would be to pay them, and enable the State to commit violence and shed innocent blood. This is, in fact, the definition of a peaceable revolution, if any such is possible."
-- Henry David Thoreau
(1817-1862)
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Henry.David.Thoreau.Quote.8C43

"Another major reason why crime is increasing is that crime pays, and in our tax-ridden, regulation crushed economy, many people cannot economically survive through low-end jobs. ... 'The income that offenders can earn in the world of crime, as compared with the world of work, all too often makes crime appear to be the better choice.' In Washington, D.C., it costs $7,000 in city fees to open a pushcart. In California, up to eighty federal and state licenses are required to open a small business. In New York, a medallion to operate a taxicab costs $150,000. More than 700 occupations in the United States require a government license. Throughout the country, church soup kitchens are being closed by departments of health. No wonder so many people turn to crime and violence to survive."
-- Jacob G. Hornberger
American author, journalist, politician, founder and president of the Future of Freedom Foundation
Source: Will You be Safer if Guns are Banned?, The Tyranny of Gun Control, 9-10 (1997).
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Jacob.Hornberger.Quote.C0B0

"It ain’t over on April 15! If you stop, for example, for a $10 pizza on
Thursday night to celebrate being done with the IRS for another year, the
taxman will be right there to grab a slice or two. On top of paying the sales
tax, you’ll also be picking up a major chunk of what the government charges the
pizza shop owner for local property taxes, unemployment insurance taxes,
federal payroll taxes, federal and state and local income taxes, and worker’s
compensation taxes. Altogether, according to a study by the Americans for Tax
Reform, that comes to $3.80 on a $10 pizza for the omnipresent taxman. If you
pick up a Bud six-pack to go with the pizza, there’s another 43 cents of each
beer dollar that goes straight to the taxman for excise taxes, income taxes,
property taxes, etc. For something stronger, say Jack Daniels, the taxman’s
share is $7.20, on average, out of every $10. Go lighter and just drink Pepsi
and it’s 35 percent of what you pay that goes for taxes at all levels. Add some
Marlboros and its 75 percent of the retail price that’s funneled directly into
the state’s coffers. Get home and hit the light switch and another $26 out of
every $100 on the electric bill goes for government rather than electricity. If
you’re flying the next day, the taxman is up early and waiting at the aiport,
pocketing $40 on every $100 airline ticket. And he’s there in the hotel lobby
when you land, snatching $43 on every $100 of the hotel bill. Go out to dinner
and it’s another $28 of every $100 of the tab that ends up with the government
rather than with the restaurant, the farmers, truckers and everyone else who
worked together to produce the meal."
-- Ralph Reiland
Prof of Economics Robert Morris College
Source: Taxed to Death
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Ralph.Reiland.Quote.1435

AAIP; February 24, 2011 at 7:30 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: You sound positively Galtian!

considering not paying taxes this year?; February 24, 2011 at 7:38 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Goldman sees danger in US budget cuts

FT 2/24/2011 04:53 AM

...Somehow, this story almost made me laugh while drinking my morning coffee...; February 24, 2011 at 7:41 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Rising Oil Prices Raise the Specter of a Double Dip

WSJ 02/24/2011 04:42 AM

US inflation expectations push higher

FT
02/23/2011 04:51 PM

http://prudentbear.com/index.php?Itemid=57&option=com_content&view=frontpage

...double dip with rising inflation...wait, wait, I know this one!; February 24, 2011 at 7:44 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/business/24fare.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Airfares Are Chasing Oil Prices Higher; February 24, 2011 at 7:50 AM
CV said...: @Andy (from other thread)

Agree with the first part. Disagree with the second. Joining the Euro helped Germany sustain their export economy. If they were back in the days of the Deutch Mark, they NEVER would have enjoyed this much economic success.

They're having to bailout those lightweights NOW because they've been trouncing them, via the They've won greatly because they're competing against a bunch of economic lightweights.
EURO, for the last decade.

Germany would, far and away, be THE BIGGEST LOSER if the Euro went away...

---

Germany would have sustained their export economy with or without the Euro, or, AT BEST, the decade or so of, let's call it, "smoothing out" (because for a decade, the poorer countries didn't have to DEVALUE their currencies to buy German goods, really wasn't worth it in the end (for Germany)... That's IMO...

So for you to say They've won greatly because they're competing against a bunch of economic lightweights."... While that's true... The same phenomenon would ALSO be true whether they'd been participants in the Euro or not...

Basically what I'm saying is they'd have muddled thru (and been better off IN THE LONG RUN staying out)...

And now, after a decade, they don't NEED those other European "peons" to export to (to "smooth things out" - so to say)... If there ever is going to be a new growth TIGER in the world, it's going to be Asia... China was barely a blip in GDP when the Euro came into existence, now it's #2...

Forget for a second whether or not their [China] "economy" is on stilts due to doctoring... Let's speak of it from an INCENTIVES standpoint... There is much more POTENTIAL growth incentive in Asia then there is just being a supply chain to a decrepit socialist European state infrastructure where many of the countries are facing DECLINES in population rates...

Germany comes out ahead because they're better at doing things... It's been that way for a long time...

America isn't really that bad at doing things either (though we do a lot of STUPID things too - but who doesn't?)...

I'm no PROTECTIONIST... But I feel that the time may have come that if all this GLOBALISM is being tossed into the fire (as we speak)... It may be prudent to TURN INWARDS for a decade or two, and see how things play out...

I'm certainly not saying that CLOSING OFF would be the "smoothest transition" for the lifestyle that Americans have come to know... But frankly "F*** the lifestyle that Americans have come to know"... It's all based on things that are unsustainable, and has a poor track record with regards to who reaps the economic benefits of work and innovation...

My 2 cents; February 24, 2011 at 7:58 AM
CV said...: @Andy T

Oh... BTW... Thanks for those new "#''s and levels you put up...; February 24, 2011 at 7:59 AM
ben22 said...: There was an analyst that was linked here yesterday that claimed the "recovery myth was over"

I would point people to the Barron's with Gundlach but not to his interview, check out the section the "top 1,000 financial advisors" and you tell me if it looks like they think the recovery myth is over.

I didn't read one single comment of caution, they all basically said the exact same thing

"bonds are going down, inflation's going up, so are stocks, buy stocks with dividends"

collectively these people might have had 300-400 billion in AUM, maybe more, I didn't count them all up.

My favorite quote:

"it's a bull market, people just need to get over it"

sorry, but sentiment is extremely bullish right now.....and when the mood is right, the facts don't matter.; February 24, 2011 at 8:31 AM
CV said...: @ben22

"it's a bull market, people just need to get over it"

---

Don't worry... $200 crude ought to just about put a stop to their delerium...

TILAPIA BITCHEZ!; February 24, 2011 at 8:42 AM
ben22 said...: Here's a few more quotes,

1.2 billion in AUM
"I feel very good about the economic outlook for 2011. The US will lead the rest of the world out of this downturn." ....he thinks bonds are now too popular for their own good

307 million in AUM
He is optimistic about US stocks which he says are generally undervalued and likely to benefit in the near term by rising employment and an investor shift out of bonds as inflation risks rise.

Andy Chase, 8.5 billion AUM
"Today people are bearish on the economy and jobs but I can't help but put capital to work"

1.2 billion AUM
"This is a great time to be buying high-quality assets, especially around equities"

3.3 billion AUM
Erdmann likens his equity strategy to a barbell. On one end, he invests in funds that buy US large caps with lots of cash and dividends, yielding 3.5% to 6%. On the other end, he finds funds buying microcaps that are likely acquisition targets.

this one I liked a lot
8.6 billion AUM
So he's lightening up on fixed income, especially in US Bonds, and is overweight in commodities and gold. He believes the precious metals could enter a long term bull market if rates and inflation pick up steam

(Um, newsflash, pm's have been in a bull market for a decade)

2.7 billion AUM
"he's bullish the US economy and likes dividend paying stocks for income, he says the US recovery will be 'much faster than people have been expecting'

I could keep going, but you get the idea, I think out of all the individuals they focused on 2 or 3 out of 50 said they were "cautiously optimistic"

they'll probably all be correct right?

If you think POMO is driving the market higher, you are just wrong, the rise in oil effectively wiped out all of the Wizards POMO dollars anyway, people are just super bullish, even more now on some surveys than they were at the top in 2007.

Now, none of you manage billions.....so what could you possibly know.; February 24, 2011 at 8:43 AM
CV said...: Y'all better go out and buy yourselves some 55 gallon "food grade" barrels (for storage) before they stop making 'em...; February 24, 2011 at 8:43 AM
BinT said...: Ben,

With all due respect, the profession you've chosen is among the least respected in America. This is not news to you, you know the reasons as well as I. But if 1000 financial advisors state that, it doesn't mean the rest of us should make any determinations based on a poll of financial advisors. I know you are trying to stay above the rest, and I hope you make it.

http://www.agoraquest.com/viewtopic.php?topic=25796&forum=47

MOST TRUSTED, LEAST TRUSTED PROFESSIONS

Lou Harris Poll; February 24, 2011 at 8:47 AM
CV said...: @ben22

"If you think POMO is driving the market higher, you are just wrong, the rise in oil effectively wiped out all of the Wizards POMO dollars anyway, people are just super bullish, even more now on some surveys than they were at the top in 2007"

Finally we come VERY CLOSE to resolution on this subject...

- I AGREE WITH YOU (that it's WRONG to label POMO as the reason the market has been going up)...

- Instead, I've been trying to hammer home the point that POMO is responsible for all the guys up there that you list acting like IMBECILES and being bullish - same way your "friend" was bullish because Rio was getting the Olympics - pretty STUPID - but if it is a REASON to be bullish, then who's around to talk sense into these people)

So therefore, BY CONCLUSION... POMO (or QE2), or whatever is RESPONSIBLE for the markets going up... Because it has altered the behavioral patterns of these IMBECILES...

Eventually it will all collapse (maybe has already started)...

But what I've been going on and on about all this time was NOT the DIRECT relation of POMO to market moves... Instead, the INDIRECT link of POMO giving AIRHEADS a false sense of security (creating 'bullish' behavior patterns...

I hope that puts and end to explaining my POV...; February 24, 2011 at 8:52 AM
ben22 said...: Bruce,

I'm not sure why a lack of respect about the industry has to do with advisor sentiment.

What I'm pointing out is that nearly all sentiment survey's are at an extreme, I follow many of them as do most techs, those advisors are admitting that they are bullish as plainly as one could, by betting on more upside.

If you don't find the information important, then ignore it, but before you do, you may want to dig up the top 1,000 advisors Barron's from 2008 and 2009 instead of acting like its worthless information.

also, my title is not "stockbroker"

there are very few traditional brokers on the street anymore, I wonder how many people took your survey even know what a stockbroker does.

Police, number 4 most respected, how funny

hilarious while Teacher is number 2 (yeah, all those lazy ass uninspiring teachers I had growing up, I have so much respect for them) while union trade leader is on the bottom, how fitting.

I didn't pick my job to be popular, that's never been a big concern for me in life.; February 24, 2011 at 8:54 AM
ben22 said...: also it appears you poll is from 2006 or prior

wonder how it's changed; February 24, 2011 at 8:55 AM
CV said...: Where's "group fitness instructing tilapia farmer" on that list?

I didn't look... :-); February 24, 2011 at 8:56 AM
BinT said...: With another stock market crash, it can't have gone up..; February 24, 2011 at 8:57 AM
CV said...: As soon as "Dancing With the Stars" calls up, I'm sure my respect profile will skyrocket!

Still waiting for that call...; February 24, 2011 at 8:57 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

the POMO comment was directed at you specifically

many people all over the place have claimed it's all about POMO

when I say "you" I'm just talking about people in general

not YOU, as in CV, or anyone on this site

last, from a wave perspective, the first wave of this pattern that may or may not be over now started before QE2 was mentioned and before anything got implemented

so the pattern of behaivor was set in motion BEFORE it all, so I'm not on board with any alteration

but just to play along, if it worked in stocks, how come it hasn't worked in lending, if outside forces can change people's perceptions, then what's up?; February 24, 2011 at 8:58 AM
ben22 said...: mother eff

CV, type, that was NOT directed at you specifically that should read (re: POMO comment); February 24, 2011 at 8:58 AM
ben22 said...: Bruce,

that's what Im saying, I have to imagine broker or banker is now number 1 on least respected!; February 24, 2011 at 8:59 AM
CV said...: @ben22

I didn't think it was directed at me personally (but thanks for saying so anyway)...

I just wanted to take the opportunity to clear things up a little because I know that SOMETIMES on this blog you and I appear to be at odds on the subject...

We're NOT (in any way)... We just have different ideas on the "linearity" of it all...

You're basically a CUT TO THE CHASE type (which is actually GOOD - and probably NECESSARY because you're dealing with umpteen clients that have goose feathers mixed up with brainpower when it comes to wading thru financial topics)...

So to you... POMO = "nothing to do with stocks" (the correct ULTIMATE conclusion - though we may not see it yet because that reality is still in the percolation process)...

The coffee tastes different the moment the steam hits beans versus the eventual cup you drink (I made that up!)...; February 24, 2011 at 9:11 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

I'd rather appear that we were at odds, makes the blog more interesting

this isn't Barron's ya know

;-); February 24, 2011 at 9:14 AM
karen said...: morning!! did you see crude hit Andy's target in the overnight?!

AR, you know how I feel about Gil! thank you : ); February 24, 2011 at 9:20 AM
ben22 said...: you know looking at that survey really is interesting, even if it's old

perception is an amazing thing

just this last week in my area two long tenured dr's were arrested

one was running a very fine abortion clinic in Philly, makes me sick to my stomach the details, another raped some kids here in DE.

How about the Dr. that told my grandfather all he had were some sinus problems but in reality he had a tumor that eventually killed him?

Should I respect them, because they are Dr's?

there are bad teachers, doctors, policeman, crooked union leaders and judges, lazy electricians, and lots of bad brokers

that people think they know the quantity of each is funny, next time I'm surveyed for the "what profession do you respect" I'll answer

I respect the professional, not the profession.; February 24, 2011 at 9:20 AM
Anonymous said...: cv--,

you should wonder how similar your POVs are..

If I'm reading this, correctly, 'Deflation' "eventually"...is the 'agreed upon' conclusion..

whether, or not, we experience 'Inflation', first, makes a world of difference, no?

AAIP; February 24, 2011 at 9:20 AM
Anonymous said...: Here's one for the tin foil hat crowd-

Interesting timing for the upcoming glencore ipo

oil and chf have the highest correlation

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/business/22views.html?src=busln

Estimated IPO numbers I have read- $10 billion in London, 2-3 in HK.; February 24, 2011 at 9:23 AM
AmenRa said...: DXY busting through lower trendlines like a hot knife through butter.; February 24, 2011 at 9:25 AM
karen said...: sorry to interrupt again, but did you see those overnight low prints on the spx, etc? and the dollar?; February 24, 2011 at 9:26 AM
karen said...: yet another rev split in FAZ.. i just noticed..; February 24, 2011 at 9:29 AM
CV said...: @ben

I'm going to dive in to this point...

"so the pattern of behaivor was set in motion BEFORE it all, so I'm not on board with any alteration"

See - here's the thing... I don't even pretend to know even a fraction of wave analysis as you or Andy (or "dog" forbid Neely or Prechter)...

But hear me out...

I see... a lot of times... EWI actually "retrofitting" analysis to fit waves...

While I realize that EWI doesn't pretend to PREDICT things (instead - it offers a "probability of occurrence")... How many times do you see triangles becoming new triangles, and on and on...

Every time that happens, it means what WAS, formerly, a high probability, is now busted...

Not until WAY AFTER can you give the final print on what really, most likely, went on...

So while it's happening, it's STILL FLUID (and as such, susceptible to alterations by outside forces, even to the point of changing low probability outcomes to high probability outcomes)...

The Ravens played the Steelers in the AFC divisional Championship and took a 21-7 lead into the locker room at halftime...

VERY HIGH PROBABILITY that the Ravens should have won that game... Then, in the 3rd quarter, Ray Rice (who had not fumbled all year long - VERY LOW PROBABILITY), fumbles, and the Steelers take the possession in for a score and the dynamics of the game changes... 2 turnovers later, Steelers are in control of the game...

Now I know what you're going to say... You're going to say that the Ray Rice fumble WAS a wave turn point... (something that you don't see necessarily with the S&P bottoming in July - and QE2 being discussed at Jackson Hole 6 weeks later)...

But you don't think that there were some "closed door meetings" (in July) basically alerting the PD's that this was coming? Why the sudden surge in financials in July?... It's still hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that they should have all gotten bullish at the same time for no reason...

I know you hate 'conspiracy theories'... But let's be honest...

We have better knowledge now than we did at the time what Hank Paulson was doing during the Lehman crisis (and TARP)

Hell - we even know what Rothschild did to the Bank of England with regards to Waterloo...

So isn't it a higher "PROBABILITY" that there WERE, IN FACT closed door meetings that alerted the PD's to frontrun the eventual announcement of QE at Jackson Hole?...

It may be abhorrent to think of conspiracies... But let me just say that it is the WILL OF HUMAN NATURE to at least ATTEMPT to pull off backdoor tricks if they think they can get away with it...; February 24, 2011 at 9:30 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: looks like I could have waited another 24 hours to sell my treasuries, Lefty...

..Interesting market..; February 24, 2011 at 9:38 AM
karen said...: obviously UUP did not hold.. and that is a nightmare of chart..; February 24, 2011 at 9:41 AM
CV said...: @AAIP

If I'm reading this, correctly, 'Deflation' "eventually"...is the 'agreed upon' conclusion..

whether, or not, we experience 'Inflation', first, makes a world of difference, no?

---

You are reading it correctly... DEFLATION is the ultimate resting place...

All persons out there who rely on electronic balances and accounts to "pay for" (and/or sustain) fancy lifestyles where they pretty much have their hearts content as to what they can buy and consume... Well... That time is coming to an end... They'll see the VALUE of this so called "collateral" vanish in a POOF with the end of FIAT...

The problem is... The DEFENDERS of fiat (the central banks) stand to benefit ZERO if the trust in that "currency" erodes...

As I've said before, it's seems counter-intuitive for them to UNBRIDLE the TRUST in fiat by allowing hyperinflation fears to take hold... But at this point in the game, it may be their best alternative...

Why?

Because there's been enough DEPENDENCY (on pension systems, public assistance, etc.) built up, that the masses would actually prefer to take a little less as long as it keeps coming...

So they can keep it up until the riots actually start (because the MINIMUMS drop below a certain standard)...

Mewanwhile, since the central banks can conjure fiat into existence at will (made easier by the ENORMOUS borrowing that soverign balance sheets can legislate into existence)... The banks (the knights of the central banks), can scurry around using all that free paper to procure PHYSICAL assets around the planet...

So when it's time to hit the DESTRUCT button on FIAT... The banks won't be suffering (because they will have managed to convert to PHYSICAL in the process)...

Then you can just reboot a new system... The banks will own all the property, the gold, the silver (they're trying to get their hands on), the copper, what's left of the oil... Probably the WATER too...

What can the peasants do?

- Tilapia bitchez
- Nickles bitches
- Silver bitchez
- Land bitchez
- Containers bitchez
- Propane bitchez
- PVC piping bitchez (copper - if you can afford it - or plant some damn bamboo)
- Seeds bitchez
- Ammo bitchez
- Woodpile bitchez
- A few small "wind" & "solar" devices bitchez; February 24, 2011 at 9:49 AM
CV said...: Of course... FOOD... But that goes without saying... Most of the above are what's needed to provide AFTER the food runs out...; February 24, 2011 at 9:50 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

I made a promise to myself about 4 weeks ago that I would not get into these kind of discussions anymore with people that have not dedicated a lot of time and effort to understanding E-wave.

Please don't be upset by that. We just can't have a proper conversation about it otherwise.

regarding this comment:

"We have better knowledge now than we did at the time what Hank Paulson was doing during the Lehman crisis (and TARP)"

Oh really?

You actually think you know what is going on behind the scenes at banks? Why do you think you know?

From my perch, that's doubtful. I'd argue banks are less transparent today than they were then, simply put, the tide's come back in....so to speak.

Here's some trading wisdom from Neely man this morning:

"Many of you reading this will think, "if the S&P is supposed to drop so much over the next few days or weeks, WHY are we exiting a part of our position now?" We are doing it because proper TRADING strategy should be independent of FORECASTING expectations. If you only trade based on what you believe will occur in the future, your trading successes will be less than ideal. Good trading strategy is NOT about what you believe, but about what you should do."; February 24, 2011 at 9:52 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

I set all my stops on UUP at $22 even.

you are correct, it's just ugly; February 24, 2011 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: @AR

"DXY busting through lower trendlines like a hot knife through butter."

Perilously close to the LONG trendline going back to 2008...

70 bitchez!; February 24, 2011 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: ben, that was excellent!!; February 24, 2011 at 9:53 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: A good woman fits in there somewhere, CV...; February 24, 2011 at 9:54 AM
ben22 said...: Also, I think some folks here, if they missed it, would find the thread over at BR's on Wisconsin that Invictus did very interesting.

Invictus' comparison of incomes was worthless and misses the issue entirely, but I might suggesting reading the comments, that was very interesting.

Apparently some more protests in Wilmington today according to the radio.

It's getting hot out there....; February 24, 2011 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-24/what-vikram-pandit-knew-and-when-he-knew-it-commentary-by-jonathan-weil.html

A Weil piece! must read!; February 24, 2011 at 9:57 AM
Jennifer said...: Speaking of things over at TBP, I found the interview with the Lowry's guy interesting.; February 24, 2011 at 9:59 AM
CV said...: @ben

"You actually think you know what is going on behind the scenes at banks? Why do you think you know?"...

I realize I'll never win this argument because I would never be able to pro-offer any proof...

BUT I KNOW...

Same way I always KNEW that whenever the cloud cover touched the top of Monte Tezio (next to my house in Italy (it was sure to rain)... It always did...

What scientific evidence did I have? None...

I've been an observer of human behavior all my life (as a group fitness instructor)... I'm not saying that to put me into any PANTHEON of "seers"... Just to state that I KNOW, MYSELF that I've developed a keen ability to look people straight in the eye and know BETTER what's going on in their mind than they know what's going on in my mind...

I don't KID myself about that... Some things to just sense and KNOW...

So I'll just TRUST my own ability to PERCEIVE what I think was probably going on behind the closed doors...

On the "probability matrix"... That's the leading wave count candidate...; February 24, 2011 at 10:00 AM
CV said...: @karen

I'm sure that rebuttal was NOT as excellent...; February 24, 2011 at 10:02 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We think that with 1.38 looming, starting EURUSD shorts looks attractive here.; February 24, 2011 at 10:03 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

I'll state for the record, I have no idea what is going on behind the scenes at the banks.; February 24, 2011 at 10:03 AM
ben22 said...: I think Karen was talking about Neely, that was the only important thing I posted there, lol.; February 24, 2011 at 10:04 AM
karen said...: Yes, I was referring to the Neely quote.. i'm going to memorize it!; February 24, 2011 at 10:06 AM
St Jamie said...: I have no idea what is going on behind the scenes at the banks.

That makes me happy. It's ugly behind my desk.; February 24, 2011 at 10:07 AM
CV said...: @ben22

I'll state for the record that I have no idea EITHER of what is going on behind the scenes at banks...

I can say... That I can possibly predict what they'd LIKE to do...

And when you pour nitric acid on that to distill it down to it's essential components...

It comes to...

- Try as hard as possible to control everything

OR

- Level the playing field... Sit around and do benevolent and philanthropic things for humanity, and aww welll shucks if it doesn't work out for us...

I think "probability" resides with the first statement...; February 24, 2011 at 10:08 AM
Anonymous said...: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax

the DX could be looking worse, no?

or, it doesn't look, that, bad, yet, does it?

AAIP

cv--,

@09:49

I think it's, quite a bit, like that..; February 24, 2011 at 10:09 AM
Anonymous said...: a little picture to go with Karen's 9:26 post

http://www.screencast.com/users/dhdware/folders/Jing/media/64b3ef38-8c79-408e-96eb-ffb3907b2fea; February 24, 2011 at 10:09 AM
bob said...: LB

http://cap-man.com/fx-trading-strategies/euro/

Good video, K posted the link to these guys yesterday, bottom line above 13860 and the trend is up again, good stop area for a short.

EURAUD showing H&S now.; February 24, 2011 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: BTW, nic is short silver..; February 24, 2011 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: Bob! thanks for beating me too that.. I was going to dig it up again..

Ben, UUP turning?! LOL.. at HOD, and I find that exciting...; February 24, 2011 at 10:11 AM
Anonymous said...: "some folks here, if they missed it, would find the thread over at BR's on Wisconsin that Invictus did very interesting . . .but I might suggesting reading the comments, that was very interesting."

I'll pass; February 24, 2011 at 10:15 AM
CV said...: @AAIP (10:09)

Most ironically... "Hyperinflation" ACTUALLY MEANS "DEFLATION"...

Because if the PRICE of the things you want to buy and consume is going up and/or getting out hand... It means to have LESS of what you want to buy and NONE of other things...

So from a "cornucopia" or "buffet" standard of measure... You're being DEFLATED (even while the phenomenon of what you're experiencing is termed INFLATION)...; February 24, 2011 at 10:15 AM
ben22 said...: ahab,

I got all the way to the bottom of that thread last night and I thought

I wonder why ahab didn't post on this, I'm sure he's got something to say about it.

@Jennifer,

ditto on that Lowry's post, Lowry's are some of the best techs out there and they've been around forever. Looking forward to part 2.; February 24, 2011 at 10:18 AM
ben22 said...: Nic is the bomb

like

tick
tick

I miss her.; February 24, 2011 at 10:19 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-05-28-punctured-gas-tanks_N.htm

Thieves drilling into gas tanks to steal 'liquid gold'

"DETROIT — Dale Fortin is getting a new kind of customer at his Detroit auto repair shop, customers who have not just been in a fender-bender or had a windshield smashed by a rock.
The soaring price of crude oil has turned gas tanks into a cache of valuable booty, and Fortin has replaced several tanks punctured or drilled by thieves thirsting for the nearly $4-a-gallon fuel inside."; February 24, 2011 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: ECB'S WEBER SAYS THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY INTEREST RATES TO GO AND THAT IS NORTH
4 minutes ago; February 24, 2011 at 10:20 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: that is an old story, but I suspect it will reappear..; February 24, 2011 at 10:23 AM
karen said...: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/2/24/throwing-in-the-towel-already.html; February 24, 2011 at 10:23 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Thanks Bob, very nice.

I have to be bearish EURUSD here:

1) The TECHNICAL level you point out overhead.
2) Irish elections.
3) Portugal, Spain, Greece, you name it.
4) Any weakness in oil would help unwind dollar shorts.
5) Seems as though US weakness is more than priced in
6) European economic strength over-stated?
7) Yen has been strong, some AUDJPY and EURJPY unwind ahead?

Will proceed slowly and respect that level, thanks.
I decided to take my hedge off and just sit long bonds.
Next week offers a lot of opportunity for Euro mayhem.
Weaker European peripherals is bullish Ts, JGBs and Bunds.

When this JPY surge ends, we like Japanese stocks.; February 24, 2011 at 10:24 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: ECB'S WEBER SAYS THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY INTEREST RATES TO GO AND THAT IS NORTH

In fact they are going to go nowhere, and Darth Weber is going to be on extended garden leave as Draghi does a QE !!!; February 24, 2011 at 10:25 AM
Anonymous said...: K

My reading of "throwing in the towel" is that it is short term bullish.
If sentiment had stayed strong, we might have just dribbled down.; February 24, 2011 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: @karen

"BTW, nic is short silver..."

---

I don't pretend to be half the trader Nic is (and perhaps what I'm going to say here is IRRELEVANT because a "trader" is only defined as long as they stay in that trade)...

But my MACRO thoughts on silver...

It appears to me that what perhaps started as an effort to keep a lid on PM prices has now turned into a "whack a mole" scenario...

This is being exacerbated by the tensions in the Middle East (and most importantly what may be afoot in Saudi Arabia)...

If oil prices get out of hand, then I don't doubt that SPECULATION is going to start flowing there... That may lead to a "cooling off" period in other moles (like gold, silver, or soft commodities)... Silver VOLUME was noticeably lower yesterday...

Anyway... What I'm trying to say is that IF that scenario plays out... Let's say crude stays hot for awhile, but when everyone decides to drop that trade, you gotta think where the trade is going to run afterwards...

Perhaps the dollar?

Well - perhaps... But were coming into the window to where "QE3" either needs to become a reality or not...

If there is a QE3, I wouldn't bet on the hot crude money flowing into the dollar and Treasuries... I'd take my chances with PM's

Just my 2 cents...

To add to that... I get the sense that a lot of PHYSICAL silver buyers are not buying at the current price point (but would LOVE to buy at $25, and donate their kidney to buy at $21)... I'm keeping that in mind... Those same people are FEARFUL right now to see a run-up to $50... They're downright PRAYING it won't happen (because they want to buy more)...

Basically what I'm saying is that the MACRO in silver, I believe, to be still UP...; February 24, 2011 at 10:29 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Karen,

it has always been about lemmings...; February 24, 2011 at 10:32 AM
karen said...: BAC about to break yesterday's low on a ten min chart..; February 24, 2011 at 10:33 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: I am tempted to short silver but have been burned often. With so much instability, even a stronger USD doesn't guarantee weaker silver if the euro is blowing up for example. So shorting EURUSD seems to be a safer play for now. If N Africa resolves and euro debt issue can is kicked down the road then you can expect gold silver JPY and CHF to take a dive. The PMs are really trading as currencies and not as commodities for now.; February 24, 2011 at 10:36 AM
CV said...: I mean Jeez...

You had Becky Quick talking to some guy on CNBC this morning and basically saying...

"But, but, if we DON'T get QE3, isn't the fragile recovery at risk of falling apart"?

That's the mindset people... Everybody knows that the system is just being propped up by unlimited debt issuance...

They WANT it to happen (well - at least Wall St. Bankers & pension recipients do - mostly the bankers because it's just money to play in the casino with)...

To the Libyans, Egyptians, et al... Not so much...; February 24, 2011 at 10:36 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

I saw the post- but didn't even open up the comments . . .

and I knew where BR would come down- without even questioning the basis premise- why are there public unions at all?

the way I see it- (forced) union dues are nothing more than campaign donations for whoever is going to give the union more money and benefits-

the New York Times indicated that the bill in Wisconsin will make it hard for the public union to raise money to help elect the candidates they want?

I mean WTF? Raise money? You mean compulsory union dues are now looked at like a bake sale to raise money for a good cause?

public unions . . .why are they around exactly?; February 24, 2011 at 10:36 AM
karen said...: also from Nic:
Maersk operator of the world’s largest container ship fleet, warns post-recession container shipping rebound is losing speed $DRYS $BDIY %%
12 hours ago; February 24, 2011 at 10:37 AM
CV said...: The PMs are really trading as currencies and not as commodities for now

x10

silver and gold are the new bucky; February 24, 2011 at 10:38 AM
ben22 said...: My .02

reading sentiment over a short term period is folly

I prefer to look at charts on sentiment such as the % of bulls minus bears on a 20 week movinig average.

I suppose the chart if you look it just this week might indicate a short term bounce, zoom out and there's no way you can claim it's bullish for stocks looking at sentiment if it works as a contrary indicator and I have a 30+ year chart of the 20 week moving average that says it is; February 24, 2011 at 10:38 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ModusLink_Global_Solutions

CMGI Inc.

"The company was founded in 1986 as CMG Information Services, Inc. by David Wetherell, who was formerly the company's Chairman. The company's initial public offering was in 1994. CMGI's December 2006 market capitalization was $662.4 million. CMGI's stock boomed in the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, peaking at $163 in 2000, for a market capitalization of more than $40 billion. The stock crashed heavily when the bubble burst, falling below $1 in 2002."

...This was typical of the tech bubble. CMGI, as far as I know, had no earnings at that time. And the chart of CMGI was a thing of beauty, both on the way up and the way down.

...lemmings..; February 24, 2011 at 10:38 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

Look at all of those tbt calls....; February 24, 2011 at 10:40 AM
karen said...: How i would love to see GS break $160!; February 24, 2011 at 10:42 AM
ben22 said...: Ahab,

I agree, there shouldnt' be public sector unions, they work for taxpayers, if people can't understand the conflict of interest found there then there is nothing I can say to change them.

One post in particular from The Curm. regarding collective bargaining was educational for me in that thread.; February 24, 2011 at 10:42 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Durable-goods-orders-apf-4186570953.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. orders for long-lasting manufactured goods outside of transportation fell in January by the largest amount in two years.

Orders for durable goods excluding transportation fell 3.6 percent last month, the biggest drop since January 2009, the Commerce Department reported Thursday."

...Leftback cancelled his refrigerator orders for his TEOTWAWKI beer stash...; February 24, 2011 at 10:46 AM
karen said...: do see where GovMo is trading today.. hint, it made a new all time low.; February 24, 2011 at 10:48 AM
ben22 said...: what I find interesting in the debate is this twist that it's the middle class that needs to stand up for their "rights", that the public sector unions truly just represent the everyman.

that it's not the public unions that are wrong, but the private workers that should be getting paid more and have better benefits and that in supporting the unions they are "taking things back from the wealthy for the middle class"

I think those folks don't understand market dynamics, they seem completely clueless about why the private sector is the way it is now.

what is also scary to me is how many people say things like "don't you want everyone to earn the same income"

um, no thank you....

I also think people keep misusing the word austerity, it's not austerity when you get away from insane debt and spending and get back to normalcy, it's just called being responsible.; February 24, 2011 at 10:48 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Anon

Thanks, that was very instructive. We actually became even more bullish fixed income in the short term after seeing the DURABLES (ex-Boeing) which was a shocking -3.5%.

Are we already seeing demand destruction? Would not be surprised to see demand destruction at the pump. Already $4/gallon in NYC, I bet we see miles driven falling soon.; February 24, 2011 at 10:48 AM
CV said...: CMGI, as far as I know, had no earnings at that time...

You could say that the United States of America has no earnings either...

Not REALLY, but essentially (because the tax receipts don't match the PROMISSORY obligations going forward)... At this point, no amount of fiscal austerity can really save it (except for - perhaps a massive withdrawl of the military complex - and haircuts to all entitlement programs - which we all know would create a world of other problems)...

So if the USA is CMGI (and you're the FED, buying up all the debt of the USA in the hopes that they can "tax it back" to make payments to you for the loan), what are you going to do?

Naturally - you're not going to stop... You're going to keep pumping them with all they need...

If that causes PRICES to rise, so be it... It'll be that way until the molotov cocktails start to fly at your buildings...; February 24, 2011 at 10:49 AM
karen said...: NicTrades Nicola
Short cable, will add on a break of trendline support from 7Jan $GBPUSD %%; February 24, 2011 at 10:49 AM
Anonymous said...: it's not austerity when you get away from insane debt and spending and get back to normalcy, it's just called being responsible.

+ 100. But AUSTERITY is the fin media meme du jour. We ate a lot of rutabagas, potatoes and offal when I was young. That was austerity.; February 24, 2011 at 10:50 AM
ben22 said...: another post was that

"America is rich...." and something after that about how we all deserved more as a result.

People confuse riches with debt.

Fact is, we are the largest debtor nation in the world.; February 24, 2011 at 10:50 AM
I-Man said...: I really wanted to get long a second ago, but I'm going to hold off for a few minutes and see whats up...; February 24, 2011 at 10:50 AM
CV said...: do see where GovMo is trading today.. hint, it made a new all time low.

How can that possibly be? I thought "coal fired Chevy Volts" were our SALVATION to muddle through $200 oil...; February 24, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Anonymous said...: SHORT CABLE = BASHING BETTY

We love that one.; February 24, 2011 at 10:51 AM
CV said...: ...not to mention SAVE THE PLANET from global warming...; February 24, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Anonymous said...: last post- basis = basic

also-

in other news did anyone catch where the Army was using crazy voodoo mind tricks on our esteemed Senators so as to increase military funding and troops?

pretty funny if you ask me; February 24, 2011 at 10:51 AM
karen said...: ZH -
GM, Held By 112 Hedge Funds, Slides Below IPO Price http://is.gd/pjWEIQ; February 24, 2011 at 10:52 AM
Anonymous said...: I really wanted to get long a second ago, but I'm going to hold off for a few minutes

Until Karen posts again.; February 24, 2011 at 10:52 AM
CV said...: "austerity, it's not austerity when you get away from insane debt and spending and get back to normalcy, it's just called being responsible."

AUSTERITY, to Americans, is having only a flat screen TV in the Man Cave (and sacrificing the one in the bathroom mirror)...; February 24, 2011 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/mary-meeker-usa-inc-tech-2011-2

Meeker's verdict: "By the standards of any public corporation, USA Inc.’s financials are discouraging."

"In effect, USA Inc. is maxing out its credit card. It has fallen into a pattern of spending more than it earns and is issuing debt at nearly every turn."; February 24, 2011 at 10:55 AM
CV said...: @LB

"Are we already seeing demand destruction? Would not be surprised to see demand destruction at the pump. Already $4/gallon in NYC, I bet we see miles driven falling soon.

I have no doubt that we're at the precipice of the BEHAVIOR CHANGE starting to happen (it happened that way in 2008 as well)...

The thing is, we're in front of March now...

March = refineries shutting down the cracking towers to do maintenance and reconfigure from heating oil to gaso...

Prices at the pump may stay elevated for awhile even if crude does happen to level off...

And I'd take quite seriously the "whoring" the SRF is doing... I'd put my money on higher crude prices (though I'm not doing so)... It's just my feeling...; February 24, 2011 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: Rates on benchmark 30-year mortgages back below 5%
02/24/2011 10:57:01 AM; February 24, 2011 at 10:58 AM
Anonymous said...: "In effect, USA Inc. is maxing out its credit card. It has fallen into a pattern of spending more than it earns and is issuing debt at nearly every turn."

Not the story on the front burner. Europe issues dead ahead. Also, see Japan and the non-collapse of JGBs. So far...

Many smarter peep like EWJ on the following thesis - a pickup of Japanese inflation and a teensy weensy panic flight from JGBs. But you'd have to be sure JPY was going to fall. Timing is everything.; February 24, 2011 at 10:59 AM
CV said...: "We ate a lot of rutabagas, potatoes and offal when I was young. That was austerity...

---

Well CV walked 2 miles through the snow to school...

Uphill both ways...:-D; February 24, 2011 at 11:00 AM
karen said...: from briefing.com, "Oil prices climbed overnight to more than $103 per barrel, which marked a new two-year high. However, they have since pulled back to trade with a 1.1% gain at $99.20 per barrel. Weekly inventory data figures for oil are due at 11:00 AM ET."

I wish they had said, "Oil prices climbed to the 61.8% retrace level..."

LOL!!; February 24, 2011 at 11:03 AM
CV said...: @Ahab

"Army was using crazy voodoo mind tricks on our esteemed Senators so as to increase military funding and troops?"

That's not surprising... We "fast tracked" a lot of Nazi's into this country after WW2...

The physicists went into rocket design, but Hitler also had these "psy-op" dudes... They basically went to form the CIA...

More goodies from the "Bush family legacy"...; February 24, 2011 at 11:03 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Agreed that even if crude turns around, $gaso will stay elevated for a while and another injection of FLATION into PPI is now baked in.

We think Ts have a stronger week next week on FTQ but we would be running scared of 1) the next job number 2) the next PPI and 3) the next auction. So we would be long next week and then look to lighten up and hedge. Our view on equities is we expect further weakness but might take a punt on the long side some time next week.; February 24, 2011 at 11:03 AM
AmenRa said...: Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -6.93%. Ouch.; February 24, 2011 at 11:05 AM
Anonymous said...: "Fact is, we are the largest debtor nation in the world."

a little Shakespeare-

"Forward, I pray, since we have come so far,
And be it moon, or sun, or what you please.
And if you please to call it a rush candle,
Henceforth I vow it shall be so for me."

in a nutshell- believe what they tell you; February 24, 2011 at 11:06 AM
Anonymous said...: How are public unions lobbying any different than, say, electric utilities lobbying?

Get rid of both, Fine with me.; February 24, 2011 at 11:07 AM
Anonymous said...: 30y rates below 5% and MBB looking solid.
This is good for companies like NLY and CIM.

(Remember they were DOOMED by HIGHER RATES..)

:-); February 24, 2011 at 11:08 AM
CV said...: @karen

"Meeker's verdict: "By the standards of any public corporation, USA Inc.’s financials are discouraging."

Isn't that what I just said at (10:49)???

Not that it's SECRET knowledge or anything... But my point is... How do we suppose to deal with it?

There's only ONE ANSWER, and the answer isn't AUSTERITY... That should be evident by all the policy decisions that have come down the pike since 2008...

So which side is everybody on?

I predict it's been determined that it's too late for change... That's why I like PHYSICAL...; February 24, 2011 at 11:08 AM
Jennifer said...: There seems to be a floor at 1304.50 ish.; February 24, 2011 at 11:10 AM
CV said...: @AFIA

Agreed that even if crude turns around, $gaso will stay elevated for a while and another injection of FLATION into PPI is now baked in.

Well just think what that will do for CREDIT CARD purchases!!!

Green shoots! - ror; February 24, 2011 at 11:11 AM
CV said...: @ahab

"Forward, I pray, since we have come so far,
And be it moon, or sun, or what you please.
And if you please to call it a rush candle,
Henceforth I vow it shall be so for me."

---

And all the while I thought that was just something you said to get a girl's panties off...; February 24, 2011 at 11:12 AM
karen said...: Breaking News
Petraeus orders investigation into Rolling Stone story that 'psychological operations' were improperly used on members of Congress - NBC; February 24, 2011 at 11:15 AM
CV said...: @ahab

For karen it's different though...

What you say is "ZSL is green"... :-); February 24, 2011 at 11:17 AM
karen said...: Business Insider
WHOA: Psy-Ops In Afghanistan Was Illegally Ordered To Mess With John McCain & Other Senators' Heads To Get More Money http://read.bi/dXCNOU

and do i dare post this? as if i care?

Warren Buffett on the Market as Casino and What Makes Omaha Special http://bit.ly/fZB24v; February 24, 2011 at 11:17 AM
I-Man said...: Alright, the I is long... hopefully for the rest of the day.

Big moves beget big retracements...; February 24, 2011 at 11:18 AM
karen said...: for you cartoon lovers: http://www.forexlive.com/169162/all/sell-the-waaallies-sell-the-waaaalies; February 24, 2011 at 11:20 AM
Jennifer said...: I-Man -- what do you see? On the 5 min, I see a lower high and a lower low, albeit with a nasty reversal candle on the lower low.; February 24, 2011 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: CV, my silver position is inconsequential.. my crude position is another story.

Bespoke
Ratio of oil to natural gas widens to record levels. Why use gas, when we can blow all our money on oil? http://bit.ly/ebNmF; February 24, 2011 at 11:22 AM
I-Man said...: Waiting for the cavalry to show up...; February 24, 2011 at 11:23 AM
CV said...: @karen

are you long or short crude?; February 24, 2011 at 11:24 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

Taming of the Shrew- the line always stuck in my head and if said today in common vernacular it would be uttered thus:

"I'll believe whatever you tell me"; February 24, 2011 at 11:24 AM
I-Man said...: @ Jenn

The setup is clearer on the 15min chart...; February 24, 2011 at 11:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Karen @ 11:17-

please see my colorful 10:51 post; February 24, 2011 at 11:26 AM
I-Man said...: If you are running any Gann angles off the 8:45 high candle on the 15min YM chart, you will see what I see.

You may see it on the DIA if you dont have futures, but its been awhile since I looked.; February 24, 2011 at 11:26 AM
I-Man said...: (8:45am yesterday, CST... and it was NOT a high print... but it WAS a high...)

;); February 24, 2011 at 11:27 AM
CV said...: @ahab

"I'll believe whatever you tell me"...

See? "Take off your panties"... It all fits nicely...; February 24, 2011 at 11:28 AM
karen said...: Anyone comparing the loss of Libyan oil production to the Deepwater Horizon loss?; February 24, 2011 at 11:30 AM
I-Man said...: How ya like dem apples?; February 24, 2011 at 11:30 AM
karen said...: Ahab.. I was attempting to add on to your 10:51.. : )
After your post I saw tweet after tweet on the subject.. Libya forgotten for the moment.. Attention spans are short.; February 24, 2011 at 11:34 AM
CV said...: @karen

"Anyone comparing the loss of Libyan oil production to the Deepwater Horizon loss?"

I'll let you know when my shrimp platter arrives... :-)

are you long or short crude?; February 24, 2011 at 11:34 AM
karen said...: actually, Libyan production not LOST.. just disrupted..

take a guess CV how I feel about crude at $100 or even $90..; February 24, 2011 at 11:35 AM
CV said...: @karen

Well then "I'm guessing" you're short...

But I'm not great at getting into a traders mind...

You guys are looking at tapes and ticks... I am too, but for me, at the moment, that's ancillary to some pretty significant events that seem to be unfolding all around us...

That's just me...; February 24, 2011 at 11:40 AM
Jennifer said...: I see triangles....; February 24, 2011 at 11:40 AM
Jennifer said...: Texas Roadhouse was where we discovered oldest's peanut allergy. That was a fun meal out.; February 24, 2011 at 11:41 AM
karen said...: I'm not so sure about this analysis.. maybe it's a case of which came first, the chicken or the egg.

http://www.kathylien.com/site/federal-reserve/why-higher-oil-is-negative-for-the-dollar; February 24, 2011 at 11:42 AM
I-Man said...: That kind of stuff is why I like to protect my gains...

I got clipped out up 15 ticks, whereas if I had just sat still and let it ride, I would have just had a full retracement and stopped out for a loss.; February 24, 2011 at 11:46 AM
karen said...: Hedge Funds Borrow the Most Since 2007 to Purchase U.S. Stocks. Debt at margin accounts at the NYSE minus cash and unused credit from margin accounts climbed to $46billion, according to data released by NYSE yesterday.; February 24, 2011 at 11:46 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We have broken down to new low yields on the 30y. We are now OUT of the trading range set up we posited between 4.6 and 4.8%. As of now that makes 4.60% yields the ceiling.

The durables was the big number I think. It was actually a very weak report. New Home Sale didn't help.; February 24, 2011 at 11:48 AM
CV said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-withdraw-all-us-rating-may-24-convert-everything-unsolicited; February 24, 2011 at 11:50 AM
karen said...: Jim Rogers : Unrest in Libya can push Crude Oil over $150 per barrel
http://nblo.gs/eHvMI; February 24, 2011 at 11:50 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We concur with the Kathy Lien analysis that supra-normal oil prices essentially force the dollar lower. Your commercial hedgers (airlines, transports) have to buy crude futures to hedge their costs. When they do that they use dollars. Then there are the leveraged specs.

Note that BUCKY has been beaten with a stick against oil, gold, silver and almost every currency. There is nowhere to go but UUP, LOL.; February 24, 2011 at 11:50 AM
CV said...: Like anybody really cares - lol; February 24, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Anonymous said...: CV

We may be seeing the end of the ratings agencies. As in, you dumb half-wits, nobody believes your asswipe ratings. So piss off.; February 24, 2011 at 11:52 AM
Jennifer said...: Go TLT!; February 24, 2011 at 11:53 AM
CV said...: @karen

That's why I don't know whether you're long or short crude...

because your attitude seems to be "short" crude, yet you keep posting all these links which represent a bullish bias...; February 24, 2011 at 11:53 AM
I-Man said...: Cheaters!; February 24, 2011 at 11:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Karen-

that Buffet link was pretty good- a lot of the same themes he's been saying forever but he makes some interesting comments regarding liability insurance and why his board of directors has no such insurance-

smart thinking; February 24, 2011 at 11:55 AM
CV said...: that "like anybody really cares" comment was with regards to my own S&P link (somehow the comment order later got jumbled)...; February 24, 2011 at 11:56 AM
I-Man said...: Guess it aint sport if you cant push peeps around and try to make them think one thing and then do the other...

Its a dirty game, but it sure is fun.; February 24, 2011 at 11:57 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

"Cheaters!"...

It's against the law to place blame (says Prechter)...; February 24, 2011 at 11:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Good perspective

http://stk.ly/gIZOH8; February 24, 2011 at 11:58 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I think we'd all enjoy Karen in shorts..; February 24, 2011 at 11:58 AM
CV said...: v., cheat·ed, cheat·ing, cheats

v.tr.
1.To deceive by trickery; swindle: cheated customers by overcharging them for purchases.
2.To deprive by trickery; defraud: cheated them of their land.
3.To mislead; fool: illusions that cheat the eye.
4.To elude; escape: cheat death.

v.intr.

1.To act dishonestly; practice fraud.
2.To violate rules deliberately, as in a game:; February 24, 2011 at 11:59 AM
Anonymous said...: I think we'd all enjoy Karen in shorts..

(meaningful silence....); February 24, 2011 at 12:02 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/afl-cio-chief-raising-taxes-will-create-jobs-535955.html?tickers=xlf,skf,%5Edji,%5Egspc,ge,iyj,xom

AFL-CIO Chief: Raising Taxes Will Create Jobs

...There is a very old joke about filling out tax forms on April 15...all here know it..."How much did you make last year?"...finally the punch line fills in that amount....; February 24, 2011 at 12:02 PM
I-Man said...: Hey, there is a big difference between noting some gameplay on a 1min chart, which happens every single day...

And "blaming" the cheaters for losing money.

If you play the game, you play with everyone else... including those whoe like to bend the rules sometimes to suit their needs/wants...

Just part of it.

You will never see me blame anyone else for my trading losses.; February 24, 2011 at 12:02 PM
Jennifer said...: ice cracking....; February 24, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Anonymous said...: http://dailybail.com/slideshows/texas-photos/8206500

None of these ladies can compete with K...; February 24, 2011 at 12:04 PM
CV said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/liquidations-coming-hedge-fund-margin-debt-surges-total-free-cash-lowest-july-2007-just-prio

"In other words, as we have shown, everyone is now purchasing on margin and the level of investor net worth is the lowest in over 3 years. Which means that should the market decline from this week persist...

the margin calls will start coming in fast and furious, and unwinds in otherwise stable products like gold and silver are increasingly possible as hedge funds proceed to outright liquidations..."

This ought to be fun!; February 24, 2011 at 12:05 PM
Jennifer said...: okay, I'm a bear. So, why, now that we are finally, obviously in a downtrend, do I keep trying to make longside trades? Pullbacks are opportunities to enter WITH TREND. I should paint this on the wall over my computer monitor. This place really is Traders Anonymous.; February 24, 2011 at 12:06 PM
I-Man said...: But I guess if I wanted to sell 2000 contracts, but I had to buy 250 or 500 first to get it up to my price, I'd do it too...; February 24, 2011 at 12:06 PM
karen said...: Jennifer, until 1300 breaks.. i think you are okay on the long side..; February 24, 2011 at 12:07 PM
Jennifer said...: I-man -- just like making your own uptick, that's why there's no point in the uptick rule. Or, you could let me make the upticks for you.; February 24, 2011 at 12:07 PM
Jennifer said...: Karen, whoops!; February 24, 2011 at 12:09 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We think TLT will stop here at 92.

New range for TYX is 4.33 to 4.60, we are going to suggest.
First stop is about 4.50, or very close to where we are.

TLT is now out of the downtrend. It is too early to say whether SPX is in a downtrend, although we do personally believe that the TOP is in, the chart is not telling us that yet. We could still have a 5-7% correction before heading to newer and sillier levels. It's happened before.; February 24, 2011 at 12:10 PM
I-Man said...: @ Jenn

In what timeframe?

We are not "obviously in a downtrend" on the daily or weekly charts...

Depending on scale, we arent even technically in one on a 60min chart.

I am not saying we will not develop into a full blown downtrend, I'm simply trying to illustrate that "trend" is relative to the timeframe you are trading.

I think it is human nature to fade the current trend, no matter what your timeframe. I know I probably wont be trying to buy a dip from here on out today, not because I think we are headed lower necessarily... but just because right now, more people want to sell.; February 24, 2011 at 12:11 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

including those whoe like to bend the rules sometimes to suit their needs/wants...

My reason for bringing things like that up isn't to "call you out" (on the blame subject)...

Instead - It's to seize a concrete opportunity to bolster an argument that I made before...

Namely - on the subject of "cheating"... In this thread, I've made many arguments that the small committees & institutions who have legislative & policy making decision power in their hands NATURALLY employ this tactic in an ATTEMPT to sway and out come to their advantage...

How that all plays out is determined over time, but I'd prefer to make decisions on the notion that "somebody is TRYING to cheat me"...; February 24, 2011 at 12:11 PM
karen said...: Jennifer, I kno, right?!

Okay, let me make a bullish statement about crude.. as long as USO stays above 39.5, blah, blah, blah.. (and it just turned trend up yesterday.); February 24, 2011 at 12:12 PM
Anonymous said...: Boring divvys are doing just fine. Institutional investors rotating out of CRAP.COM into pharma, utilities, REITs and telecoms today.

PURTy.; February 24, 2011 at 12:12 PM
Anonymous said...: 1300???; February 24, 2011 at 12:12 PM
I-Man said...: But if we start stringing together higher lows on that 1min chart, you can bet I will be buying...; February 24, 2011 at 12:12 PM
karen said...: http://dailybail.com/home/ratigan-we-spent-four-times-more-on-clintons-blowjob-than-we.html; February 24, 2011 at 12:14 PM
CV said...: "We are not "obviously in a downtrend" on the daily or weekly charts..."

Cue AMEN RA 3lb...; February 24, 2011 at 12:14 PM
Mr Maturity said...: Agreed with the I, there is a bit more rotating than selling going on. No clear downtrend unless we start to see major support breaks and those would be quite a bit lower, SPX 1275 being the big one for me (the Jan 28 low) which is SIXTY NINE points off the top.; February 24, 2011 at 12:15 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: It's hard to imagine a blow-job that could be worth that much......; February 24, 2011 at 12:16 PM
karen said...: just peeked at the monthy $spx candle..; February 24, 2011 at 12:17 PM
I-Man said...: I follow ya, CV... I just wanted to make clear that when I say "cheaters" I dont mean to imply that they have any control over the long haul, which is something we have debated before.

Thats all.

Carry on.; February 24, 2011 at 12:18 PM
CV said...: Okay, let me make a bullish statement about crude.. as long as USO stays above 39.5, blah, blah, blah.. (and it just turned trend up yesterday.)

OK, I get the hint... I'll stop asking whether you're long or short...; February 24, 2011 at 12:18 PM
Anonymous said...: EEM stronger than SPY. A lot of it is Brazil and Russia. Oil.
A huge amount of RSX is Gazprom/Lukoil and EWZ = PBR.

It's useful to know these things, right?; February 24, 2011 at 12:18 PM
I-Man said...: Man, it sure looks like its gonna blow sky high tho...

Now that so many traders are convinced we're going lower...; February 24, 2011 at 12:19 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

"I dont mean to imply that they have any control over the long haul, which is something we have debated before..."

And that is the point that ALL OF US come into full agreement...; February 24, 2011 at 12:20 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: I am coiled and ready to spring.; February 24, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: Remember that DXY and SPX can rally together if crude retreats.; February 24, 2011 at 12:22 PM
I-Man said...: Furthermore, they do seem to have A LOT of control over the minds of many market participants...

The big trick is in them getting people to do what they want them to do, without really having to do much at all.

This fuckers know Sun Tzu...; February 24, 2011 at 12:22 PM
Bond Crash said...: Not hearing much about me lately...; February 24, 2011 at 12:22 PM
I-Man said...: These.; February 24, 2011 at 12:23 PM
CV said...: @Anon (12:18)

My gut tells me that THAT is significant...

While people on this blog appear LOATHE to attribute NEWS EVENTS to markets (preferring pure tape analysis & TA)...

It 'feels' like (to me) that the tape has been caught off guard by what's happening right now in the Middle East...

IOW - The NEWS FLOW MATTERS this time...

That's how I see it...; February 24, 2011 at 12:23 PM
I-Man said...: But this fucker knows some Sun Tzu, too...; February 24, 2011 at 12:23 PM
Brian Sack said...: How come my POMOs are not an irresistible force?; February 24, 2011 at 12:23 PM
Brian the Broker's Shapely Assistant Tawny said...: Get LONG, boys. You KNOW you WANT to.; February 24, 2011 at 12:24 PM
CV said...: My (12:23) isn't a prediction of higher or lower crude (or the effect on DXY or anything else)...

All I'm saying is that at this point, who knows what's going to happen with Ghaddafi or KSA?...

Place your bets...; February 24, 2011 at 12:26 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://tradingweeks.blogspot.com/2011/02/stagflation-2011-why-it-is-here-and-why.html

Stagflation 2011.; February 24, 2011 at 12:27 PM
Man in a Tiger Costume said...: What is all the fuss about?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110224/ap_on_re_us/us_congressman_mental_health; February 24, 2011 at 12:28 PM
Anonymous said...: 10:1 on

Ghaddafi OFFS HIMSELF in the bunker with the Ukrainain nurse.

100:1 against

Ghaddafi escapes dressed as the rear end of a pantomime camel.; February 24, 2011 at 12:30 PM
Anonymous said...: It's a bit boring, we are looking forward to
LIVERPOOL v SPARTA PRAGUE at Anfield, 3pm.; February 24, 2011 at 12:32 PM
Anonymous said...: K

We closed red yesterday but there were no panties.
Just sayin'...; February 24, 2011 at 12:32 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-comes-weapons-mass-destruction-get-out-peace-card-again#comments

Saudi student wants to blow gwb...up.

Bringing out all the TOOLS in the old box.

foghorn; February 24, 2011 at 12:34 PM
Anonymous said...: foghorn in not that anon
I sign my shit.

foghorn; February 24, 2011 at 12:36 PM
karen said...: I-Man.. your 12:19.. i'm not even convinced we are going lower !! and i'm a zombie bear : ); February 24, 2011 at 12:37 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 2.24.11

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