Morning Corner 2.23.11

Silver (weekly info)
new high 32.30
trend=up
high= 32.30
rev= 29.27; mid= 30.79



Weekly candle could form a shooting star. From how it looks now it would have to close near the lows. The reason is that a shooting star with a red body is more bearish than one with a green body. But shooting stars are not the best reversal candles. A hanging man w/ a red body (too late for this), a dark cloud cover (still possible) or bearish engulfing (still possible) usually give better results.



Wheat (weekly info)
no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 973.00
rev= 900.00; mid= 936.50



Foods made from wheat should start getting less expensive. At least it offsets the increase in gas prices. Today wheat closed below its weekly 3LB reversal price (there's still W-Th-F) and if it continues then the monthly 3LB mid is the next level of support. Support becomes the 38.2% retrace at 796.58 if that fails.



Mad skills...


290 comments:

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karen said...

ProphetAlerts
Fidelity says 401K balances are at 10 year highs.... makes complete sense. ROFL.

karen said...

isn't this the truth:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/fomc-meeting-federal-reserve-the-fed/2/23/2011/id/32966

Anonymous said...

CV-

I guess that is why land is called "real" property

Bruce in Tennessee said...

the average balance in 11 million accounts only 75k...

CV said...

I just want to make a subtle point in saying that if the "Fed has nothing to do with anything"... a claim that I have been arguing against on this blog...

Then why is Hoenig talking about & admitting to "Deeply Undermined Free-Market Capitalism"?

Any answers FREE-MARKETEERS?

karen said...

there was follow thru on that next 30 min uso candle, btw, laughing..
4 min to go and still falling..

karen said...

Bespoke
Looking for action? These are the market's most volatile stocks. http://bit.ly/et9hNs $$ $AIG $AKS $JDSU $NVDA $PCX $RVBD

CV said...

"The US Treasury completed the latest ponzi shuffling of Treasuries to Primary Dealers (who will shortly send it all back to the Fed, pocketing a few hundred million in bid/ask spreads and commissions in the process), selling $35 billion in 5 Year bonds at a 2.19% high yield, the highest since April 2010. The internals, as has lately been the case, were not pretty. The bid to cover was 2.69 compared to 2.97 previously and 2.76 LTM average. Directs took down just 7.7%, as it now becomes obvious that the "UK" is no longer gobbling up bonds, and we expect the UK-bond build up as per TIC will stop in a month or two tops. Indirects also took down less than average, as foreign banks purchased just 34.2% of the auction, compared to 41.5% on average. Which of course means that PDs had to step into save the day: at 58.2%, PDs took down the highest amount since July 2009. Lastly, the auction prices about 2 bps wide of the when issued. That we could have such a weak auction in a day when risk is surging, is a stunner. Have gold and silver (and the CHF) finally become the widely accepted new risk avoidance products, instead of the USD and the UST? If so, that is a far bigger revolution than anything happening in the Maghreb now."

ht/ZH

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Note that we are only 10% long TLT so our hedge is only 8%.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

A lousy auction as predicted. Not very bullish for Ts here to have the bids 6 bps outside. Expect the long end to sell off so that P/Ds can make at least a few nickels on these purchases.

Bid/Cover 2.69
Coupon Rate 2.000%
Total Amount $35 b
Yield Awarded 2.190%

karen said...

good chart:

http://www.forexlive.com/168859/all/tail-or-dog

Bruce in Tennessee said...

gold seems to have found its sea legs...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

It's a very interesting moment.

On the one hand we have RISK but there is also a perception of FLATION. This is causing the haven trades to be GOLD and SILVER and SWISSY and OIL instead of the usual BUCKY and USTs, YEN and JGBs. The reversal of this dynamic will cause some peculiar action.

We are with GARY SHILLING and ROSIE in terms of strategy, but we are also a trading shop that watches herd behavior. The herd will dominate for now.

Anonymous said...

K

NZT chart is an earthquake chart.
You always buy the earthquake.

karen said...

not really anon.. you haven't been following their earnings.. not that fundamentals matter.. the chart was the chart before the earthquake, btw.

Yield Hog said...

We have bought a metric assload of NZT today.

CV said...

@karen

GLD... Daily chart... (go back 12 months or so for view)

Gearing up to start the formation of the left shoulder of a 3P&ADH?

ben22 said...

CV,

re: wars.

yeah, easy for you to say now, but you forget that when that book was published it was the 70's, you know, that decade some of you here have told me was a lot scarier than this one.

and when it was written, many people thought a major war was going to start, stating that there would in fact be no major war, not only soon, but for the next 15-20 years, was a major step in the opposite direction of the consensus


re: NZT

so I'm real curious what makes someone buy a stock like that after a very clear break of the trendline that's been established since June 2010, appears to be about to break it's December low, and is selling on huge volume.

Yeah, 9% divvy, which might result in you having your own money returned to you.

is there some new LOTR movie going on down in NZ soon? What's the story?

Enlighten please....

CV said...

or is that just your "run of the mill" QUADRUPLE TOP?

karen said...

ben, you will appreciate this sweet email from my son:

"Market is completely crazy, why did it continue to run up into the greatest period of unrest in recent history in a region that is critical to global industry? Makes absolutely no sense that it has decided to start taking notice now"

ben22 said...

Karen,

so he's not a dip buyer?

Was just downtown Wilmington, lots of teachers down there protesting.

one sign

"Don't take my rights away"

coming to a town near you....

ben22 said...

Karen,

also, I guess your son hasn't heard

The Ben Bernank won't let the market go down

karen said...

i'm gonna die laughing if i see ONE MORE TWEET about $220 oil and HOW TO PLAY IT!!!

karen said...

Gaddafi Son Says Army Will Protect Oil Infrastructure, Blames Al-Qaeda For Carpet Bombing As 10,000 Now Reported Dead
http://is.gd/12kFoy

Anonymous said...

interesting post:

"um, anyone "investing" in GLD or SLV thinking that they are proxies for gold or silver may get a very rude awakening in the next couple of days. JPM is the "custodian" of these funds -- and if you follow the assets of these funds with Harvey Organ, you know that as the situation has gotten more grim at the Comex (where JPM does not have the metal to meet demand deliveries)....the ounces have been...evaporating of late.


And then...there's something else. Buried deep in the prospecti of these funds is the clause that you can redeem your shares for metal if you own some 100K shares or more. So guess who has been buying with both hands....and seemingly redeeming for actual metal? The Chinese.

In short, any inventory of actual metal in these things may be more fleeting than anyone now knows. At the very least, they do not have the metal in the proportions they are supposed to....not any more...what they've got is a lot of paper....lots and lots of paper."

CV said...

"about $220 oil and HOW TO PLAY IT!!!"

Just keep singing the Flintstones tune in your head...

"Let's ride... With the family down the street... through the... courtesy of Fred's two feet"

karen said...

can someone tell me if 1300 was any sort of real support for spx?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

NZT is one of those dull things that is going to be around and will keep on paying a dividend long after "assholes.com" has gone out of business. New Zealand will carry some FX risk, but that has been more than priced in here.

Selling after natural disasters/terrorism has turned out to be a poor investment strategy - over and over and over again.

We love to catch knives.

Anonymous said...

can someone tell me if 1300 was any sort of real support for spx?

Depends on where we close, doesn't it, angel?

Paul Krugman said...

Ben Bernanke is simply not responsible for high bread prices, the fall of several governments and $100 oil.

Anonymous said...

Krugman, your nose is getting longer and longer.....

karen said...

New blog post: Plosser: Europe a bigger risk than oil http://www.forexlive.com/168882/all/plosser-europe-a-bigger-risk-than-oil

PS.. i hate postin after 200 cuz blogspot returns me to the older posts : (

Jennifer said...

Oops, the little wedgie broke down. I'm so happy -- I never thought I'd see that happen again!

CV said...

@karen

can someone tell me if 1300 was any sort of real support for spx?

Best I could do on short notice

new chart in thread (under Hendrix)

Anonymous said...

If you want an over-priced telecom stock, look at FTR.

There is a very good chance that we will close red.
You know what that means.

I-Man said...

I watch the Stochastics for my highs and lows on the 5 and 15min charts...

But you're right, no higher low yet...

Although it looks like we might be trying to carve one on the 1min...

ben22 said...

You all remember that private REIT I told you guys about maybe 8-9 months ago? I sort of stopped paying attention but...they are making news again.

They've decided to try an IPO of a retail REIT....now.

Seriously, I think I've seen it all, if this doesn't tell you people are bullish, you'll never know what bullish means:

http://www.chicagorealestatedaily.com/article/20110214/CRED03/110219944/inland-western-files-for-ipo#axzz1EoMklYYl

karen said...

thanks, chet.. good with the ah in there.. i cant do that.. looked at my trend chart with 13/34ema.. spy tagged 34 ema today.. last time we hit that was november.. we danced around a bit and took off to the new highs.. with the 13ema being the only "opportunity" to JBTFD.

Jennifer said...

Ben -- Yes, I'm Illannoyed by higher taxes! No way would I go to Indiana though!

CV said...

@ben22

Figures... They probably have Rahm and his cronies backing the whole operation...

karen said...

James Turk - Short Squeeze in Silver Could Be the Big One http://tinyurl.com/4wejyg2

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Seriously, I think I've seen it all, if this doesn't tell you people are bullish, you'll never know what bullish means:

one only has to add a T and rearrange the letters to know!!

We have to run but I think you can see that there is a steepener in place now and that the FTQ in USTs is backing off a little bit now.

Hope everyone enjoyed trading The Long Bond with me and Gary Shilling these last few days. ZROZ have bottomed and we will be recommending that trade the next time around.

For now it is a bit of TBT for us, we sold some TIP again. Going forward from here, as FLATION peaks and recedes, we see TIP being an under performer (remember they only pay CPI not the REAL INFLATION) relative to THE LONG BOND.

Heather Locklear said...

Why do they call you the LONG BOND?

Mr Bond said...

Not sure, but a friend told us Chicks Dig The Long Bond.

Brian Sack said...

SPX 1300-1305 is now Strong Support.

Because we said so.

I-Man said...

@ Ben

You see a completed ABC on the hourly Dow?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

A fantastic look at the details of a highly rated muni. For those who like to get under the hood and see what's really in there, this analysis is recommended. I guarantee you that <1% of peep who own these munis has done this, even at the institutional level. Ben, want to weigh in?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/onondaga

BTW, we think great opportunities lie ahead in munis. Right now this is not something that you want to touch, and we are in line with Meredith Whitney - this looks like subprime, smells like subprime...

Once this universe is re-rated there will be real yield.

Until then, only pain....

Cold Steel said...

I am lurking. You know that, right?

ben22 said...

I,

just on the daily you mean?

Also, it sort of got lost in all the crazy yesterday but did you guys see that credit card info coming out of BAC?

trouble trouble

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-21/bofa-almost-doubles-credit-card-unit-writedown-to-20-3-billion.html

I-Man said...

The I is long...

Jennifer said...

AGU is up almost 5 points in the last hour...

karen said...

BEN! I swear I posted that BAC business TWO TIMES yesterday, LOL!

you know how i feel about BAC!

spx is going green!

ben22 said...

AFIA,

I'll have to take a look a little later. I just read the Barron's with Gundlach's comments sans colorful sex toys....I very much agree with you and him, there are probably some huge buying opps available and coming availabe in muni's, I hope to pick up some of those ashes along the way and hold them a long time.
that said, I worry about what he said about wealthy people in that market that are "all-in" types....that's scary stuff, so I'm only a spectator now.


Also I'm off my being a dick stage now and I'm serious about the NZT if anyone cares to comment, I could easily be missing something in the charts but I'm not seeing the long story at quick glance.

ben22 said...

sorry karen, I missed it...

just buy the dip

ben22 said...

also....my buddy at the office, Mr. BEE DO

thanks to the market he's so high on life right now he floats, doesn't even wear shoes anymore

but he just dropped some papers off in my office about a "hot" chinese IPO

Renren

surely Jim Chanos and HH are smiling somewhere

I said to him, hey....what if there are protests in china and they shut the internet down

his response

"why would they do that"

then I asked

"how do they make money"

response " "

he left not long after that, probably back there planning out how many shares he'll buy.

buy tha dip

karen said...

it's okay, ben, maybe you weren't around much.. i also posted chunks of the JG interview from Barron's.. good stuff.

ben22 said...

in case some of you parents are looking to homeschool your kids but don't have the time to do it yourself, maybe you can get some of these folks:

http://www.aolnews.com/2011/02/23/providence-rhode-island-issues-pink-slips-to-all-of-its-teache/

and who knew that Tom Brady had another job in the offseason.

CV said...

Latest News From RAN Squawk

"IMF says further weakening of USD would lead to more balanced growth"

ben22 said...

oh no doubt IMF, the whole world seems to be balancing out very well right now doesn't it....

I-Man said...

Flat...

Who knew work could be this much fun?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen: STILL like the shoes..

I-Man said...

Dodging bullets by the grace of JAH...

Giving thanks.

Let he who boasts, boast in Jah...

CV said...

@ben

I posted that for a "laugh" BTW....

CV said...

@ben

That's the same IMF... I suppose they're supposed to be the caretakers of the "one world currency"?

I think I'll stick with canned whiskey...

Jennifer said...

RIG earnings leaked -- a miss.

ben22 said...

CV,

I think with that comment above you can plainly see why they would be fine caretakers of the one world currency

meet the new boss, same as the old boss sort of thing

you think when they started the US FedRes it was any different than the central bank the Rothschild's started in Europe

it's just a new age version of the same thing

CV said...

@ben

The deal for the UD FedRes was agreed upon months before Woodrow Wilson took office...

Convenient huh?

Just like Obama...

I doubt either one of them even knew what was going on... It was just "just sign here" and you get to be President...

At least Obama gets a cool ass jet and helicopter to ride around in...

Crossing the Atlantic in WW's days was more perilous...

Themz was the TITANIC days...

I-Man said...

Same folks, also...

Check the family tree...

I-Man said...

Best day ever at Dready Cap... Enjoy the close, we are done for the day with our 4 for 5 and our stack of benji's.

karen said...

oh! thanks Jenn.. twitter is over capacity so i'm clueless : )

ben22 said...

well, I suppose Demark is going to get that follow through

now I hope he stays off the tv

karen said...

The only bullish element to the USD is that it's not even lower.. even copper is voting its demise now.. JJC green.

ben22 said...

CV,

If I'm not mistaken, wasn't WW quoted as saying not long after that he had made a huge error in judgement, he had be duped?

ben22 said...

I havent' been able to bring myself to the EWI website since yesterday, I know there is a headline there saying

"we called it"

anyone want to check? I just can't do it....

CV said...

@ben

& I fully agree with you that there will be a GRAB for "control" of the IMF style entity that you propose... That should have been evident in the words I'd typed earlier...

I'm merely interested in the "HERE TO THERE" scenario and how it plays out...

That's why I'm leaning towards the INFLATION before DEFLATION scenario at this point...

Why?

Because let's say that there will be only be "x" seats reserved at that table... Well really, there are too many ENTITIES at this moment who'd desire a seat...

So the main thing to do would be to just have a 2008 style "shootout" (which gobbled up Lehman - Bear - & Merrill Lynch)...

Same scenario plays out with all the worlds central banks now (the CB's are the JPM's, Goldman's, Lehmans, etc.)...

But the WAY they attack each other isn't by causing a liquidity crunch (like before)...

No... The way they do it is to basically just print themselves as much of their own fiat as possible and procure PHYSICAL assets with it...

Game goes on until the last bars of gold & silver are raided... Then, whose left with the most get seats at the table... The "underlings" get to fork over theirs and get to be "Dukes" and such...

Something like that... (I'm making up the future of the world off the top of my head)...

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/tom-demark-cnbc-2011-2

Tom DeMark, the widely-followed technical analyst and market timer who counts Steve Cohen as a fan, says the market is due to plunge 11% or 16%, and that if we get a lower close tomorrow then the selloff will be confirmed.
You probably remember DeMark from a similar (and very specific) call he made back in January, which of course never materialized. Why didn't it? On CNBC, he says (oddly) that the Mideast crisis disrupted the market's pattern, and actually sent the market higher

CV said...

@ben22

"If I'm not mistaken, wasn't WW quoted as saying not long after that he had made a huge error in judgement, he had be duped?"

---

Yeah, I believe that's right... (Just like Hoenig)... "oops - sorry... we screwed up"... Better luck next time...

CV said...

"even copper is voting its demise now.. JJC green"

Nickles bitchez!

I-Man said...

"Why didn't it? On CNBC, he says (oddly) that the Mideast crisis disrupted the market's pattern, and actually sent the market higher..."


No!!! You just read that shit wrong, DeMark...

What is it with these guys?! How can they be so smart and so damn stupid at the same time?

ben22 said...

Here's the quote:

"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."

~ Woodrow Wilson

I bet they only needed three words to get him to do it

Buy
The
Dip

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, the DOW closed like the big 3 European markets with renewed weakness into the close. Tim says that's ok..

CV said...

@ben (4:00)

Well... It took 17 years before the stock market finally crashed...

Got a whole "roaring twenties" off of that zoo...

Anonymous said...

ben-

did you catch the NYT's piece a few days ago with Prechter saying he was wrong with his short call in July (I mean really what else could he say?)

“Being bearish in recent months was wrong,” says the market forecaster Robert Prechter, “but I think it was prudent.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/your-money/20stra.html?_r=1

I am certain he would be the last person to say the Fed foiled his timing- but that's what I'm thinking

ben22 said...

ahab,

nah, hadn't caught that

Bob would never blame his mistake on the Fed, it would go against everything he's ever written since 1974, that's not the reason his forecast was wrong, it's because P3 is not the highest probability elliott wave count. One of his rules for trading is that you take responsibility for your winners AND your losers.

Interesting though that the two forecasts that were given in the article by other people, did you notice something about them? They were both based on the Fed and/or Washington.

None of Prechter's calls are based on such things and they never will be.

Anonymous said...

Crude Oil 98.80 +3.38 +3.54
Natural Gas 3.927 +0.020 +0.51
Corn 702.25 +12.00 +1.74
Soybeans 1331.5 +20.5 +1.56
30yr Bond 120.93750 +0.09375 +0.08
10yr Note 119.812500 -0.281250 -0.23
NY Gold 1410.9 +9.8 +0.70
NY Silver 33.525 +0.663 +2.01
http://www.ino.com/

Anonymous said...

"None of Prechter's calls are based on such things and they never will be."

exactly

key quotes from the article:

"In need of an antidote for my buoyant mood, I turned to a man whose outlook is as bleak as an ice storm"

got a chuckle out of that one

"Does he still believe that the catastrophe is coming? Oh, yes, he said, adding that, if anything, the recent good news for investors has made the outlook over the next several years much worse."

I agree with that- just delaying the inevitable

“I have no interest in investing in any traditional financial market,” he says. “They are all dangerously over-owned, overpriced and overleveraged.”

check, check and check

AmenRa said...

Been away most of the day. Listened to the market stats on the radio. Working on the post now.

ben22 said...

Ahab,

You ever read Prechter's Perspective?

It's by far his best book imo, and I have all of his books, you can get it real cheap on AMZN....I'd bet you'd like it, Barry R doesn't think much of Prechter but I've seen him mention several times that he thinks that's a great book.

lots of cool thoughts in there about trading, traders mindsets, markets, moods, how he one the trading contest back in the 80's (he made 444% in four months, he wanted to do 1,000 but there were family complications) and wave theory

I think there are some serious issues with Orthodox wave counting and trading off it the more I learn via Neely but Bob is still a real smart guy and people can learn a lot from him, at the very least, you can learn how stop being fooled by certain lies that are treated as fact on Wall St.

ben22 said...

one
won

what's the difference right

buy the dip

karen said...

good conversation above! glad i came back to read it.. gotta get some other stuff done now.. see you all later : )

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