CAT (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 110.41
rev= 95.95; mid= 103.18
It appears that Caterpillar is losing steam. It closed below its SMA(21) two weeks ago. It's testing its weekly 3LB reversal this week (and monthly 3LB). It's also testing its SMA(55).
FDX (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 97.56
rev= 85.38; mid= 91.47
It seems CAT is not alone. FedEx is even weaker. It's below its SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(89). It's also below its 38.2% retrace (87.54). It's testing its weekly 3LB reversal, SMA(233) and 50.0% retrace.
JNJ (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 64.79
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 64.79
rev= 67.57; mid= 66.18
Consumers must be buying off brands as JNJ is moving lower. It had a weekly reversal down last week. It tested its monthly 3LB mid this week. It's below its SMA(21) and 50.0% minor retrace (64.04).
60 comments:
Ra,
you think that hammer can hold?
it's so nasty....things stay this way for an hour we should open just above the bottom of the lower shadow
things are falling apart
Well, Ben, isn't that what traders want? I betcha Lefty has gotten over his goofy 10 year bet and is making money hand over fist...
Bruce I suppose all a trader really wants is a trend to ride
been annoying being stuck in a triangle since February
ben22
SPX opened lower which put the confirmation of the hammer in jeopardy. The hammer would have been better if it had gapped lower on the open. Since it didn't it also formed a bullish harami. Haramis have been having a hard time getting confirmed recently.
Ra,
According to Nison Hammer candles do not need a confirmation while hanging mans do, yesterdays daily candle on $spx meets every single rule in his book
I went long right at the open today SPY calls, just looking for a couple day trade is all nothing crazy as we may be back in a new bear market and thus I'm playing with fire here, fairly tight stops on this one which I normally never do with options
we'll see, I might be toast in under two hours
ben22
Hanging man and inverted hammer are the better one day reversal candles. Has to do with refusing to go any higher/lower. But all reversal candles need confirmation. A higher open could lead to a higher close which would confirm a hammer. The close is what counts.
Ra,
fair enough, I just don't like to fade the books, Nison makes very clear, page 33 I believe
hammer pattern does not need to come after a long decline and he also says no confirmation needed
you'd know better than me though, I do not primarily trade off candles and I have to memorize what is going to be on the tests, not necessarily the way its best in the real world, that's one thing to note in his book, he always mentions after you learn all the patterns that you have to figure out how to trade them your own way.
thanks for your thoughts
Ruh roh. Yesterdays low has been taken out.
FTSE MIB has suspended trading. Italy got slammed.
Don't you love how the MSM keeps parading people who say that gold is overbought? We're in the twilight zone as there is no resistance.
USDJPY daily candle is losing some of its bullishness.
ben22
My favorite book on candles: http://www.scribd.com/doc/54746746/Trading-eBook-Candlestick-Charting-Explained-Greg-Morris
Candlestick Charting Explained by Gregory L. Morris
WTI looking to fill the gap from 2/16/11-2/17/11.
well, so much for that
kicked to the curb like a dog
just the way it goes sometimes
CAT & AA both down over 4%.
K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!!
Ben (11:14)- Hey...Hey.... Hey, give those dogs at least a little respect :)
Mangy Mutt
lol@MM
Yikes!
below Major 18's 1244, 1112-1375 fibs makes the next level 1212, then 1174... just saying
was wondering, if you drop a bull from a 1370 story building, how many times will it bounce?
QQQQ -- I've been on vacation, so I'm hoping that bull bounces one more time!
Don't worry. Together we can always find good stocks in a down market.
I see gold is now down. Someone is selling in order to make their margin calls.
Ben - I believe it was you who used 1220 as the (Not the exact words) point of no return.
We are at that point now.
If you or anyone else can give your view point on what ti expect when or if we desisively break that mark.
Mutt
1220
I believe 1220 was the 3% test for the H&S pattern.
AmenRa - Thanks.
Mutt
Dark Cross + 2 Hindenburgs (tossed in for 'effect') + frontrunning Jackson Hole = QE'n'...
Click here to have the formula expressed as a mathematical equation (to impress chicks at bars)...
http://www.topshareware.com/microsoft-equation-3.0/downloads/1.htm
I'm bored, that and this is more than you'll probably want to know.
TED lines for SPX are...
1370
1338.8
1307
1274.4
1235.2
1206.8
1161.3
Major 18's with fibs...
1375
.1351
.1337
.1313
.1274
...1244
.1212
.1174
.1150
.1128
1112
Minor 18's
1368 (18-36)
1350
1332 (18-36)
1314
1296 (18-36-54)
1278
1260 (18-36)
1242
1224 (18-36)
1206
1188 (18-36-54)
1170
1152 (18-36)
oops, think we went below this trading method...
Wow. The round number of 1200 probably providing support...
The 23.6% retrace of the entire rally comes in at 1204 as well. Classic chart support at 1225.
Feels really scary out there....
Probably a nice area to hit at least a temporary stall....
same chart B22 posted earlier, different time frame
@MM
DO NOT TAKE THIS TO THE BANK
couple thoughts I've got floating around the head right now
1. Andy T called for 1220 months ago for this X wave as I recall he did so when most people were screaming about how the inverse H&S was going to blast us to 1450, so because I was always on board with his count for the last several months and I was even looking for a violent e wave as early as mid June which I can document, I'm not giving up yet on the overall structure that's been mapped out.....it means a z wave is coming but I do not know from what level
2. I enjoy the pov Cobra has on the H&S which is that we've had two major head and shoulders failures since March 2009 rally started....thus the odds increase for this one to work, using that 3% rule that I like on the H&S it's basically getting confirmed, now there may be a throwback toward the neckline but that's probably a sell if it occurs, the voilence of the last several days seems to be a warning that there is potentially quite a lot more downside left, I've seen a lot of targets around 1130-1150 and that seems very much in play to me right now
I plan on spending quite a lot of time in cash in the near term because I just don't have a lot of confidence right now
emotions are also highly charged right now, at least minie are, which is a good time not to do much, to potentially be on the cusp of something you've been waiting to come back for over 2 years is both exciting and very scary if you understand the potential implications
Wow. Just checking in. The stocks, they go down. Very powerful.
Andy T
I have 1204 at the 50.0% retrace. But I'm not using the absolute highs and lows for the range.
"I have 1204 at the 50.0% retrace. But I'm not using the absolute highs and lows for the range."
Now there I can smell what the Ra is cooking
nice stuff, big fan of applying the fibo's in that manner....
ben22
I'm still getting used to it.
vix up
QQQQ
SKEW has been down so I figured traders had closed out of their OOM options. It still hasn't moved that much higher yet.
Barton Biggs just admitted on Bloomberg that he was wrong yesterday. Just because it's oversold doesn't mean it can't get more oversold.
ok then, crude's down... hehe
Barton Biggs and Birinyi both rang the bell at the top in 07 too, and all the way down in 08, and now they write articles about them both saying "they were buying at the lows in 09 when very few were"
whatever
and people wonder why John Corzine could be the pick for Treasury Sec. It's not that people have bad memories, it's that they believe whatever they want to.
when I found out they were both bullish yesterday it freaked me out, started to figure it was only a matter of time before I'd need to swtich bearish again....
Ok I'll say it. 1204 will get tested before the close.
Reasons:
1) Margin calls begin the forced selling of winning positions.
2) Absolute fear of tomorrows NFP
3) Fire Dept has surrounded all stock exchanges with nets.
HAMMER TIME!
1204.58 is the 50.0% retrace. The market made it to 1204.68. Wussies.
n/m
lol, I just can't listen to Maria on CNBS anymore... "whatchss do you chsay about where the marketchss are going"
1168.03 is the 61.8% retrace if the 50.0% retrace fails to hold as support.
Lawd have mercy! K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!!
oh shit... think they laid off the guy that flips the CB's
At this rate the market better pray that NFP is BTE. Or we'll be testing 1100 on the SPX before the weekend.
AIG EPS 0.69 estimate 0.98. A 29.6% miss.
how did I miss this in my mail, sent this morning?
The Gleason Report
04 August 2011
The S&P500 is down about 3% today. It’s down 8.3% since I sent an alert to subscribers on May 17, 2011 suggesting that they exit the S&P500 immediately at 1328. The dollar is up today because money is fleeing Europe. Gold hit another record high this morning and then fell back. I stated in the last newsletter that the dollar could be headed for a waterfall decline. That decline is showing up in the collapse against gold. Short term, the markets will probably bounce and appear to recover. Be careful.
This is not yet a buying opportunity for stocks. As I’ve warned for the last couple months, the global economy was slowing down and it would eventually be realized by the stock market. Global growth is likely to stay weak through year end 2011. Despite oil falling below $90, the price will probably rise higher than most expect in 2012 and will further constrain the global economy.
Most of the stock decline occurred after the recent congressional budget deal. This deal signaled the markets that the spending would never end and that currency debasement was a certainty. The US can’t stop spending for two reasons and one that nobody on TV wants to talk about.
1. Reduced federal spending during a slowdown increases the likelihood of recession.
2. Cutting spending requires huge cuts to the military and abandoning a failed ideology.
This isn’t lefty-liberal talk. It’s the financial reality that every empire-focused nation must eventually confront. A day comes when revenues can’t support the political ambitions. Welcome to the Post American World.
Best regards,
Tom Gleason
Manager, The Gleason Report (www.gleasonreport.com)
I can hear it already. "The SPX held 1200 which is bullish for the market. Stocks are a great value at these prices. I'd be a strong buyer here."
Yeah right. Try to catch that falling knife if you want to.
Tough to catch a falling knife with only stubs on the end of your arms.
Ben (2:01) - I have been away from my desk so could not answer earlier.
Thanks for your input.
I was expecting a pull back and fortunatly positioned myself for it, just did not expect anything this monsterous.
I do not believe this is were we crash, so was looking to see how you guys might be calling it.
Thanks for your input.
Mangy Mutt
Guys,
I just shared with some other peeps but I was in a meeting for the last hour or so heading into the close
my phone kept ringing so I figured something bad was going on in the market, up until now virtually no calls from anyone concerned about the market
the worst part though is that is why people were calling, but they were calling to ask if we should BUY BUY BUY
then I got into my email after the meeting, and this is the first message:
Ben,
Should stick our toe back in the water. Is this the opportunity to get back into stocks? I am thinking 10-25%. Definitely mix in some Google (Love Gmail & Google+), Apple (Loss of Steve Jobs won't slow them down) Intel. Let me know what you think. If you agree push forward.
Regards,
This is already ugly, it might be about to get far worse....
even scarier:
he just followed that up with this
holy shit....I have to go home and think, same guy that sent me that email just sent this to me:
Ben,
Sorry forgot to add this
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thisisinsane/2011/08/04/buy-this-market/
ben22
As soon as I saw the marketwatch link I fell out laughing.
Guys,
I've already posted my experiences with the tech bubble bursting...I hope you remember them...but from my standpoint until a real solution in Europe is found, I would not make bets in equities...
..just my 2 cnets
ben22
Arrgghh. It was a JA article.
LOL, re: marketwatch... well some of his facts are correct but weren't they correct 10 days ago, like when the markets were 10% higher than today? They'll still be correct if we go down another 5%, 10%, 50%. How long does it take to heal after being attacked by a bear?
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