A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: I allow the House and Senate to substitute for me occasionally.
SPXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and failed trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 61.8% minor retrace (1286.32). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1300.67). QE2infinity. Still below weekly mid & now monthly 3LB reversal.
DXYSpinning top day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Tested and held 38.2% minor retrace (74.40). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).
VIXHanging man day (we'll see if it gets confirmed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (23.05). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.52). Still running away from the "no fear" zone.
GOLDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1637.50). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1614.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURCHFBearish long day again. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its new 0.0% retrace (1.1010). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1452).
JNKBearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing all SMA's. Failed its 50.0% retrace (40.00) and 38.2% retrace (39.80). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 40.45).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its new 0.0% retrace (27.19). Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 28.91).
WTIBearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 100.0% minor retrace (93.34). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 99.13).
SILVERBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the upper trend line. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (40.69). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.34).
BKXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 100.0% minor retrace (44.57). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 46.42).
HYG/LQDBearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (0.7951). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8110). Tested and failed its weekly 3LB reversal price (0.8022).
USDJPYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.24). Calling BoJ. Calling BoJ. Are you all bark and no bite?
2s30s SpreadBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (3.66). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4.03).
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
28 comments:
cv had a late post at the end of last thread...
It's there if anyone is interested
See... the PROBLEM is (& always was)... That if one is completely mired in the idea that this is a FINANCIAL blog... Then, naturally, the perspective becomes "uni-imensional" (you kno - like "uni-bomber")...
But nature doesn't work that way... EVERYTHING overlaps & interacts...
Y'all were mostly fooled because many here were lost former disciples of TBP (which should probably more appropriately be named TSJP)... Nevertheless - there IS salvation...
So - some unnamed person, could TRULY go off the board in 360 degrees & give you a prognostication list of off the wall stuff, like say (just for s**ts & grins)...
- Packers (preseason) to win the Super Bowl last year
- 6/6 on Oscars
- The EXACT Euro call (5.5.2010) 2 months prior (which was dead opposite both Citi & Goldman analyst calls, both which 'covered' 2 losing call positions in the period)
- silver bitchez (last August)
- arbitrage silver to Au call (this May)
& get laughed at in the process...
---
Or... they could just hold their breath, waiting for the next dick bove call
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/Bove%20BAC.png
&/or, they could also twist in the wind for a month wondering if there will or will not be a debt ceiling raise...
or wonder what the Bernank thinks about subprime...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmqvibv4UU
or wonders what sectors Ritzy 'lightened up on' (3 days after the fact)...
---
Lots of stuff always to see & digest... If only one has the eyes & stomach for it...
jk - of course...
I just make this stuff up as I go along...
Time for me to own up to a bad call (unlike Barry Ritzcracker or Meredith Whitney).
I said treasuries would sink on the debt deal, but the exact opposite happened--an ostensibly risk-off day.
OK, now that that is out of the way, please note the behaviour of credit today (relative to past moves). IGs were unnaturally strong today, given that they are "risky."
I need to think this through more thoroughly. I have been too busy at work and I think I'm missing some pieces in this puzzle.
Pretty amazing move today...finished on the lows as well.
I'm really struggling to see a "finishing" pattern into the highs....so, will keep looking for an "alt" count. In the meantime, the "neutral trianlge" x-wave should still be alive for a few more hours tomorrow morning.
Bulls have their work cut out for themselves....
My morning laugh comes way of Reader X who writes me this in re 'The Fuzzy One":
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Your Daily Dose of Horseshit
“I keep saying I am not a Democrat because I have no idea what their economic policy is, and I am not a Republican because I know EXACTLY what their economic policy is. ”
puhleeese
Is this guy for real? He doesn't know the Democratic economic policy?
That's classic
I could break it down for him (in less than 10 easy bullet points)""
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thanks....keep the laughs coming please.
Anyone catch Tiger's temp caddie...not exactly "Stevie"....
He looks like a wuss.
Google Bryon Bell Caddie....not exactly "menacing"
Wonder if he was the dude who set up Tiger with the "tail?"
Invictus, Barry's left hand socialista, is chagrined that the "stimulus" wasn't that 'stimulative.'
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/not-too-stimulative/
I wrote this to him:
"Real Shocker there Invictus.
535 congressman and Senators, all with their own little pet ideas/projects, can figure out “really good” ways to Stimulate the economy by going further into Debt.
I’m really surprised.
What we really need to do is SPEND EVEN MORE. It’ll definitely work better this next time around."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There's probably too much 'snark' in the comment, so Barry's editors will likely delete it.
These silly Democrats will never learn....
You know what, I'm really quite tired of this infrastructure spending argument
are any of you having trouble get to and from work, or the grocery store, or your kids school because the roads are bad?
but we have to spend somewhere!!!!!!!
whatever, guess where all kind of roads are getting full attention? Delaware, you know, Biden was all over it, and its a complete disaster here because of it, accidents galore, traffic far worse than I've ever seen it, tons of workers paving sidewalks that are rarely used and so on.....
everyone has these grand theories on what we really need to fix the economy
good luck "fixing" the greatest debt bubble ever known....
Ray Guy had to sell his superbowl rings.
A truly bad economy..
ben22:
Think you alluded to this earlier....
This "could" be the e-wave an expanding triangle, but only when viewed on a Weekly Line on Close chart.
If you actually look at Weekly S&P500, it could easily be described as an expanding triangle where the d-wave failed to exceed the termination of b-wave. It would be considered a "running" expanding triangle. As per the Bible, if the d-wave 'fails", the pattern skewed upward or downward look. waves a&e will likely be related by 261.8%....
gulp.
Ray GUY had to sell his rings?!
WTF...
That sucks.
Matthew,
I am not Lefty, but he was short 10 bonds...and has had his hat handed to him...
Rates went down today because today's us economic numbers were so weak it appears we are headed for round II
Yes, that Ray Guy...
http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/01-05/
...when spending decreased by .2%, traders found the exits....
nite..
Andy,
I had been on that idea of the weaker d wave and the real nasty e since the c wave was basically as big as the a
that's a lot of letters, but you know what I'm saying, 261.8 puts us about 1180 or so in cash naturally around the April 2010 top, saw Nic and some others mention 2010 summers 1130 region....it all matters on the next bounce, not many instance of this many days in a row down, when we get the bounce, as you say, bulls have a lot of work to do now, looking at a lot of individual charts today there are a lot of things breaking down, leadership stocks seems to be getting a lot weaker
ton of volume came in toward the close today, so things are deteriorating fast
the problem though with that bearish of an outcome is it makes me think we'd go lower than that, it'd be a trip back to that 800 level we talked about before
unless the entire rally from March 09 is over at this point, I look at stuff like this and it makes me think this was not final pattern in the rally:
http://lh3.ggpht.com/-rcSe_zn5PH0/TjiSmbH9b6I/AAAAAAAALRU/1DnL3HGzQD8/s1600-h/NYMO%25255B2%25255D.png
well....
also according the Bible...the next wave that follows and expanding triangle will NOT surpass the beginning of the e-wave. IOW, the 1356 would be the peak for a long, long time.
A really long time.
The other thing...is that while watching CNBC today, I didn't really hear any technicians talking about the H&S possibility.
So if ADP is BTE will the market fall for it again?
Andy T @11:19
After the last few failures they're a little gun shy.
ES has been in a very tight range tonight. Not one person at the CBs can get any sleep. Downing No-Doze & 5-Hour Energy with every currency screen active.
CV
Some more for you: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=r_oPDKFmJ_Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a96OgR6hjDY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUwfbtjNMHo&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dmX2uhQrZs&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bujlRZNPh_E
A few more: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Voqu7V7vaTw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_2EgZqSPFs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAOjrhx5asM&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KNxcByCEkM&feature=related
SPX FV around 1250...
I know. I know: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-0aShG1gUg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJTzjBd35wg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_eGLZFITmk&feature=related
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