EURCHF (weekly info)new low 1.1297
trend=down
low= 1.1297
rev= 1.2050; mid= 1.1678
This cross is saying that investors are still running to the Swiss franc. It's below all SMA's. It's below its new 0.0% retrace. The EU banking system must still be having problems.
USDJPY (weekly info)new low 77.03
trend=down
low= 77.03
rev= 80.01; mid= 78.43
The 77 level is trying to hold on the USDJPY. This week has already made a lower low. It tested and held its 0.0% retrace (76.75). It's below all SMA's. The US isn't going to intervene so it's up to the BoJ. Yeah right.
41 comments:
@Ra,
I also put a lot of importance on larger trendlines
I see the trendlines a little bit different though I think
I think in this case you must use log for $spx to identify the proper trendline because
1. The rally started over 2 years ago, so arithmetic should be set aside when looking at the entire rally, it's taken too long not to use log and
2. It will give you earlier warning of the trendline break than the arithmetic chart
If I draw a trendline from the 2009 lows and create the second touch in summer of 2010 I show in log that trendline broke but it did so with a close below on 5/31
http://i54.tinypic.com/t6pld4.png
a secondary trendline from the summer head and shoulders failure in 2009 through the 2010 correction I show 6 touches and we've got quite a lot of room to work lower before we touch that one
The mad rush to extrapolate the GDP revisions is pretty hilarious to me
all stated with "we now know"
yup.....they all know for sure now.....
ben22
I know the trend line was broken earlier on a log chart. I switched the scale to see the diference.
So far it only affects trend lines and not MAs or fibos.
Ra,
I'll often only use the fibos on an arithmetic
I'm going to guess by the end of the week sentiment will have flipped far enough short term to be considered bullish (as sentiment will be so bearish) very much looking forward to looking through COT at the end of the week as well
note the emotional response to the news that we were just discussing, what are you not supposed to do as an investor? Well, look in the rearview at econ data to determine your positions for starters
but that's what lots of folks are doing with all the "new" data that has come out, which of course, is actually now old news and was known before by people controlling big money
but this is why markets are patterned
ben22
I expect the bottom callers will be appearing soon. It will be a repeat of 2008 and I'm not proficient at catching knives. So I'll wait to see how the SPX reacts at support levels.
Hard to say if that will happen or not Ra
lots of people looking for that head and shoulders top to play out, I think a lot less people will be looking for a bottom than there would have been last week or the week before
but we'll see
@Andy T
Vonta Leach to the Ravens bitchez!
---
That's why Houston is a perennial 8-8 team (& why the Ravens always go deep into the playoffs)...
@ben22
yup.....they all know for sure now.....
---
Other famous 'they all know for sure now's' in history...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT-I8jQDQ7c
---
CV adds "emphasis on NOT ONE" in that not so fibonacci sequence...
I'm going to guess by the end of the week sentiment will have flipped far enough short term to be considered bullish
---
as always - it depends on who gets... THE OLYMPICS!
he continued his greatness in South Beach CV
and now we get NBA lockout drama
but not many people care about that
S. Korea bot 25 metric tons gold, 1st time they bot in 10+ years... hmmm
AT,
just throwing this out there
do you think we could still be in a C wave here?
otoh, we said for a while the E wave should be very violent if that's what we are in now....
B22, whatcha trading? if I may ask?
closed FXA puts for some nice change, closed SPXU calls... wanted to clear out the account, see what unfolds next few days. My BAC broker, which just happens to have the same initials as C.V., hasn't advised me to sells these yet.
sheesh, almost tempted to go long now or later in the day... going for a walk!
nothing new right now Q's
selling off some of the short hedges Iv'e had on today but not all of them
looking for more long entry around/near 1250 area
I'd flip to bear if we approach 1220 and break below it but not before then,for now I'm just being really cautious, still lean toward the bullish side though in the intermediate term though.
I figured a move to this area was a near certainty after yesterday's price action, tough time to keep the emotions in check with everything that is going on.
@Amen
So I'll wait to see how the SPX reacts at support levels.
Trust me dude...
If nobody saw fit to trust me on:
- Packers (preseason) to win the Super Bowl last year
- 6/6 on Oscars
- The EXACT Euro call (5.5.2010) 2 months prior (which was dead opposite both Citi & Goldman analyst calls, both which 'covered' 2 losing call positions in the period)
- silver bitchez (last August)
- arbitrage silver to Au call (this May)
Trust me on this...
dark cross bitchez - (since 2010, it's going to be the NEW [get the technical lemmings wrongfooted & charging play]... Succesive occurrences (version 2011 - 2.0; version 2012 - 3.0 [& if needed, a version 3.1 somewhere again, near the elections to guarantee that Barry Teleprompter will have a chance to practice his putting for 4 more years]...
So go ahead and look again at that daneric chart from yesterday...
- dark cross
- undercuts the triangle (sell signal)
- toss in a couple Hindenburgs FOR FUN
- momos pile in short
- free $$ to Goldman & the Morgue
- miraculous sticksave (like 1100 last year)
- bonuses achieved
- can kicked
keep playing that record until they figure it out...
CV
3LB first and foremost for me. Dark cross only if using fibo SMA's. Fibo retraces (using C. Brown's ideas).
selling off on "good headlines"....
We haven't seen that in awhile....
There's quite a bit of blood on the floor of the NYSE as traders keep trying to catch the falling knives. Sometimes it's better to bandage the hands and seek safety until the carnage ends.
Andy T
The market sold off on bad headlines (ISM) which hasn't happened in a while either.
ben22
Looked at todays SPX candle on a log and linear chart. No difference. So that means it's intense.
@Amen
It's going to happen exactly as I predicted...
YOU can plug in the exact levels... & the 3LB's...
I'm saying that the 'occurrence' will be along the lines that I described... Watch & see how all the 3lb's & fibos miraculously line up after what I described occurs...
Ra,
I don't think it would ever give you much insight on just a one day candle comparing the two
the price is the price on both charts on a one day, the scaling would only be slightly different on that time horizon
the only time you can tell the scale is different is if you push the length of time out, all important things in finance are quoted in percentage terms so I really favor log scale for most of my work
most of these TA books Im' reading say that anything you look at over a year should always be done in log scale
neely seems to think you should look at log 100% of the time, but I still do use both formats
I agree with you though, things looking prettay fugly right now
I'm just trying to stay ninja here mostly
as fugly as it looks, bot SSO calls, just a little, may just be a daytrade.
gl Q's
that might be a hot ticket
I just don't know, if we rally from here it's going to be well more than 100 S&P points IMO, I don't have to bottom tick it
PCS fell down this morning and still hasn't gotten back up.
my trade is prolly foolish, won't be the 1st OR last time I've been fooled, but was thinking a bounce off the line from 4/26/10 high, 3/16/11 low, 6/16/11 low.
Q's
I'm tempted to go long SODA calls again for a quick trade but too risky here
IPSU pushes up again hard today despite the ugly tape, otoh, CSII has turned into a total bust from that cup and handle formation
it's stil within my fibo arcs though
ben22,
"... if we rally from here it's going to be well more than 100 S&P points IMO..."
here, too..
that would be the Classic "The Market moves to make the most People wrong..~"
AAIP
further, if the 'Metals' "melt", and what has been 'stored' in the 'Long Bond' comes out to play..could see a run to the 'May Day' highs..
It's been a long time since the SPX was below its SMA(233).
we are on the same page AAIP, for certain
couldn't agree more, time will tell
remember the 3% break guidline on the H&S patterns to confirm them?
if 1260 is the neckline you'll confirm the break at 1222, not 1 or 2 points below the neckline like I'm seeing people do on all kinds of sites right now
oddly enough AT first mentioned that 1220 target to me almost six months ago as he correctly called for an X wave to develop, awesome call on this rice action man
I don't know if we get all the way there but I'm not going crazy short unless that 1220 gives way
ben22
You watching the TICK? I keep seeing flashes of -800 or greater.
You would think DXY would be much higher for the day. Not anymore.
Gold busts through $1660.
I'm just trying to stay ninja here mostly...
---
dark crosses & hindenburg omens (fade 'em), followed by QE3 announcements (preceeded by 'frontrunning', naturally)...
It's the n(j)ew way to trade...
The Rosh Hashana - Yom Kippur break is coming in a month (after Jackson Hole & Labor day weekend)... Expect moves to be completed, patterns restored, gentiles move to the back of the bus...
All is well in the world...
Weekly 3LB (if it closes the week below 1268.45) will be trending down. Today the SPX closed below its monthly 3LB reversal price (1257.64).
Ra,
yeah, watched TICK all day today, saw some real extreme readings early on
I need to go back and review some stuff on this though
it gives different kinds of signals at the start of bear markets as I recall
CV
don't you wonder how many people now want to sell QE3?
it was an utter failure after all, thats totally evident by now
interesting perspective that you'd write off even the possibility of this
not that I don't agree with you that we'll rally...just thinking QE3 is not so cut and dry as momo's thought QE2 was
funniest thing right now though has to be what is going on with bonds, the Mohammed El Erians of the world are still pretending they called it correctly because they went to German bunds......yeah, ok
you were totally wrong PIMCO
PIM(P)CO
Fixed.
@ben
I haven't written off the possibility of ANYTHING...
Instead... If anybody is really reading INTO what I'm saying... I'll say it more bluntly here...
This is a contrived situation... contrived doesn't mean 'controlled'... Instead it means that TPTB 'want' a certain outcome & will pull all the strings to make it occur... Possibly many times it will succeed (but ULTIMATELY Mr. market will have its way)...
IMO - all one needs to do is to have that '6th sense' (in getting to understand):
- Who ARE TPTB?
- What are their motives?
- What are the vulnerabilities to their motives?
If, & once, you have the mental self discipline to understand that these famous TPTB are simply 'humans' (after all)... & that 'human behavior' is clannish... then it is very easy to toss away such labels as 'anti-semitic', or 'homophobic', or whatever the LABEL dU JOUR is that 'aggressive' clannish types use to propagate their homogenization fallacies (as if TRUE homogenization meant that we'd all become homos - which is, NOT EXACTLY what I think they want - instead, they just want a 'homo-belief' world where THEIR voice happens to be the loudest)... The LAUGH (irony) there, is that even if that were to happen, then the homo-seeds which emanated from that primordial mass, woul likely start to faction off amongst themselves...
Anyway - What doest this have to do with markets?
You tell me...
Metaphorically... I could choose to play the Miami Heat (on paper)... In which case I might as well go home...
Or I could 'show up' & play my own game & try to see what happens...
Post a Comment