A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: I came. I saw. I almost got conquered.
SPXDoji day (I'd say morning star but is didn't gap lower). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 50.0% retrace (1204.58). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1286.96). QE2infinity.
DXYDark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Tested and failed 50.0% minor retrace (74.67). Back below SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).
VIXBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Way above all SMA's. Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (32.07). New high on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.74). Ran all the way to the "fear" zone.
GOLDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its new 0.0% retrace (1675.90). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB (reversal is 1619.00). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURCHFBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1.0829). Failing all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1297).
JNKBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (38.31). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.68).
10YR YIELDBullish piercing day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its new 0.0% retrace (24.56). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.40).
WTIBullish thrusting day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (86.04). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 94.89).
SILVERBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed test of the upper trend line. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (37.94). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 41.76).
BKXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (42.31). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 45.63).
HYG/LQDSpinning top day (also a bullish harami). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (0.7670). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8065). Failed its weekly 3LB reversal price (0.8022).
TLTBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Trading above its upper trend line. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (103.06). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 98.58).
EEMBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (42.79). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 45.62).
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
"We're looking to recruit over the weekend."
105 comments:
ben22 (from previous thread)
"its the tea parties fault"
The number one reason behind the "Super Congress".
"Super Congress".
there's a lot to be said, about that Idea..
none, of it, Good..
AAIP
AmenRa,
nice Chartage~
the super congress is no worse than the czar trend
which started under Bush, btw
it's just that Obama is taking these trends and putting them on steroids
change baby, believe in it
and if you see something, then make sure you say something
Ra,
your charts are great
but I have to say, some of the pics you find for these threads are just hilarious
nice job man
peyton hillis is being reported as a top 12 back in early drafts on Yahoo
color me a skeptic on this one
I know the guy is a beast, he's huge
but top 12?
ben22
Czars LMAO. I don't know what the hell Obama was thinking with that move.
Ra,
in all seriousness, the czars can change the face of the entire country
unlike cabinet secretaries they don't need any congressional approval or senate confirmation, they give the president great extra power and can shape reform in basically everything since Obama has now assigned to every aspect of our lives and they are basically responsible, I think he's appointed 40 of them thus far. Bush did it too, as I mention above.
Obama vowed to be "the most transparent administration" but czars are entirely contradictory to that as they hide information and their decisions behind the false claim of executive privilege, creating the exact opposite of transparency while also resulting in a situation where the public has nobody to hold accountable for anything.
Look at some of the titles:
AIDS Czar
California Water Czar
Domestic Violence Czar
Faith-based Czar
Great Lakes Czar
Guantanamo Closure Czar
How can you look at this and not say WTF?!!!!
not sure what I was doing here
"Obama has now assigned to every aspect of our lives and they are basically responsible"
just supposed to read
"Obama has now assigned to one to nearly every aspect of our lives"
go back and read some of the O-man's quotes about Bush using Czars
they are about as priceless as his rant about how irresponsible it was that Bush raised the debt ceiling
Class Act that Obama
or a POS, depending on your perspective
McB,
that's what so many don't understand..
it isn't 'Free Market'...
it isn't 'Socialism'...
it is Totalitarianism.
to·tal·i·tar·i·an (t-tl-târ-n)
adj.
Of, relating to, being, or imposing a form of government in which the political authority exercises absolute and centralized control over all aspects of life, the individual is subordinated to the state, and opposing political and cultural expression is suppressed: "A totalitarian regime crushes all autonomous institutions in its drive to seize the human soul" (Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.)
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/totalitarianism
AAIP
Ben @6:54
I heard a stat today on a FF podcast that 6 or 7 of previous year's top 12 RBs finish outside top 24 in the next year (something like 10 years running) - haven't checked it though...maybe Hillis will be one of them
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sp-downgrades-us-aa-outlook-negative-full-text
S&P Downgrades US To AA+, Outlook Negative - Full Text
United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative
We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.
We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
Rating Action
On Aug. 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.
The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for debt service--remains 'AAA'.
Monday just became a much more interesting day.
http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20110805a.htm
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
National Credit Union Administration
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
For immediate release
August 5, 2011
Agencies Issue Guidance on Federal Debt
Earlier today, Standard & Poor's rating agency lowered the long-term rating of the U.S. government and federal agencies from AAA to AA . With regard to this action, the federal banking agencies are providing the following guidance to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and bank and savings and loan holding companies (collectively, banking organizations).
For risk-based capital purposes, the risk weights for Treasury securities and other securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government, government agencies, and government-sponsored entities will not change. The treatment of Treasury securities and other securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government, government agencies, and government-sponsored entities under other federal banking agency regulations, including, for example, the Federal Reserve Board's Regulation W, will also be unaffected.
aka The Fed just told S&P to f*&% off.
Bloomberg is live (figures). Anyway Mauldin just made an interesting point. Since S&P downgraded the US it will have to downgrade a few other sovereigns soon to show that it was not a political decision.
I can't wait for the Asian markets to open. Shit just got real. Political spin will be in full force ALL WEEKEND.
ben -
re super congress - i'm with meh - this is not a "good thing", i.e., your "representative" and mine are further reduced to mere placeholder "yes" men and women, while the elite stack and deal the deck.
"super congress is no worse than the czar trend
which started under Bush, btw
it's just that Obama is taking these trends and putting them on steroids"
what evidence would you cite that obama has any say in such legislative domain power brokering. to me, he seems truly the figurehead, empty suit, puppet piece.
the super congress more like unto the top echelon (or factotums thereof) of the politburo.
Odds the any of:
1) Jawboning from Fed about easing
2) Jawboning from Obama/Geitner about stimulus (huh? what about the cuts)
3) "Rumors from unknown source" about stimulus or QE3
4) More Euro-bailouts
happen this weekend Sunday?
Some people think it will take at least another week of Wall Street throwing tantrums before the government decides to wrap more gifts to hand to the Street.
Weekly 3LB Update 8/5/11
@ben
I'm not interested in making what I'm going to say an argument. Just a quick 'hit & run' point...
In the thread, you mention many times about Obama/czars/Super Congress etc. (& I agree wholeheartedly, that it's all a 'not so subtle' attempt for the government to gain more & more control over lives...
Now follow this logic...
Arguably, the main reason Obama is in power was because of 'backing' by interested bankers... Namely - banking 'families' & otherwise the cartels that run things for them...
If on thinks that Obama's war chest came about mostly by those $5 donations they ought to have their head examined...
The point is underscored, because one of the main SUCCESSES that Obama has had is in getting regulations thru that have been beneficial to the banking industry (while spinning the rhetoric that he was a 'man of the people' fighting wall st.)...
The 'latest' is that if Geithner goes, the next guy in line would be none other than ex-Goldman John Corzine... an the beat goes on...
---
So what I'm basically saying is... In a "the Fed has nothing to do with anything world"... Is what I've been saying all along...
Maybe they have nothing to do with anything, but it's not like they're not trying...
(part 1)
To add some color (no pun intended) to what I'm saying... Most people know that I was directly against Obama all along... I would have even taken Hilary over Obama if it came down to that...
But at the time, one could never really pinpoint anything negative to say about Obama... There were NO CHARTS TO read because his past was largely void... So if you were AGAINST him (like I was -
it was mostly just a 'gut feeling' - something that told me something wasn't right from years of analyzing people)...
What was WORSE, was that if you spoke negatively about Obama, you were basically a 'racist' (or, at minimum, the conversation took an immediate turn in that direction - as basically issuing a
warning saying, "on't go any farther or you're going to get the "R" glued to your forehead)...
---
So whatever... fast forward... Pretty much everything I'd ever expected out of Obama (let's call it "regarding general over all ineptness & FOS-ed-ness" has come true)... & naturally, there isn't a
crowd of people at my door right now lining up to say "wow CV - you were right & we were wrong - got any new ideas? Maybe we'll heed your advice this time"...
& it's a GOOd thing that's not happening, because if it did, I think I'd probably drop dead...
Anyway - FF 3 years, & I don't even dislike Obama anymore... Why? Easy - because as a PUPPET, I realize that he's just carrying out orders... So what's the sense in 'shooting the message boy'?...
My hatred, if you want to call it that, has shifted to where it should properly be, and that is on the BANKS...
Now the last thing anyone would ever see me do is to go postal on a bank teller or something... & frankly, I don't have time or inclination to travel up to NYC & take pictures of the Goldman Sachs
building (remember the time Franklin 411 - from Ritholtz site) was commenting that he was in NYC sightseeing, and that was one of his stops???
& to think y'all think CV is 'weird'...
Anyway - vis-a-vis banks... the 'head of the snake' are the shareholders (mostly private families: the Rothschilds, Morgues, Lazards, etc.) of the central banks...
To that, you might as well add in all the group heads that committee around them...
(continue)
part 2
To blame anything on Obama right now is kind of a joke... The only thing he can be 'blamed' for is being a 'ball-sackless teleprompter'...
So if he's running in 2012 (& for the record - I think he'll WIN - although without MY vote - as I am likely to abstain from voting in 2012)... Anyway - most 'hypocrites' (here & elsewhere) OUGHT
to vote for him...
Why?
Well - BECAUSE of Obama's puppetteers...
See - there are only two outcomes to be determined
1. Keep the paper ponzi carosel going for as long as possible (while the currency is, in fact, dying, distract everyone for as long as possible that that IS NOT what's happening...
So for FIAT lovers (& frankly, everyone who makes their living in the financial system which runs on that blood - it is ESSENTIAL that that fantasy world continues)... & understand me very well
when I use the term 'fantasy'... I don't deny that there are dollars in my pocket, & those ollars are used to transact... INSTEAd - I'm saying that at this point, the MOUNTAIN of debt derivatives
that the system is based on... probably should have come tumbling down by now...
I am NOBOdY to predict when & how that will happen, as I also cannot predict the day of my death... I can only say that I know that day will come...
2. Is to reject FIAT, and accumulate 'things' that woul serve your lifestyle well in a FIATLESS world (which - frankly - I doubt will ever REALLY happen - more likely - some kind of RESET will
happen - but the effect being that the 'wealth' you thought you had, which was 'valued' in terms of the old fiat, vanishes)...
To put it another way... I'm pretty sure that when the Cruzado becomes the Cruziero, which becomes the Real, followed by the 'New Real'... Well - I doubt anyone is going to be coming to my house &
tearing up planks on my outdoor decking & saying "You bought these with Cruzados... & in 'New Reals', this deck ought to be 2' x 2' (not 12' x 12')... So here's a chair to sit on in your new
space... Enjoy your view"...
---
Anyway - Obama is probably the best chance we have to keep being Rasputin (which is what everyone in this country seems to want to do anyway)...
Carry on (my wayward sons)...
cv--
what do you mean by this.. "...Obama is probably the best chance we have to keep being Rasputin..." ??
AAIP
cv--
also, to one of your, long-standing, Points..
http://dailybail.com/home/max-keiser-italys-2400-tons-of-gold-are-the-real-target-of-i.html
Keiser is in full agreement..
Keiser is a sharp dude.
AAIP
@AAIP (9:17)
vis-a-vis 'Rasputin'... I mean this (metaphorically)...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cnn-sp-reconsiders-downgrade-after-white-house-challenge
---
Just ANOTHER in the long line of 'shots across the bow' in this never ending game...
Geither was probably right... "The US will not lose it's AAA rating"... Huh??? WHY??? How???... Easy - because the very minute that something happens, TPTB change the rules of the game (you know - those TPTB that have nothing to do with anything)...
So... S&P threatens to downgrade (not that I really flippin care, because THAT's the thing that doesn't really mean anything)... But just for sh**s & giggles (because some people seem to like the circus in Washington)... No problem...
They'll pull some levers to make S&P itself go away... That sound you hear in the background is the wussies changing their tune...
Go right own the list...
- FASB
- ue vs. u6
- COLA
- dodd frank
Anytime anything threatens that 'last straw', the rules are changed... Advantage HOUSE, of course...
It's like playing roulette in a casino an 'betting' the greens ('0' & '00')... Then, the minute you finally score big, the casino politely informs you that those numbers o not, in fact, exist on the wheel an there will be no payout...
Back to Rasputin... Obama is the PERFECT TOOL for the banksters to play this game... He's performed brilliantly thus far FOR THEM... So if THEY want him in there for 4 more years, then that's what we'll get...
I'm quite convinced also that they have him over a barrel... THIS PART HERE sounds 'tin foil hatty' (even to me)... But with everything I've seen (& unseen), I wouldn't be surprised at all of Obama WAS NOT a natural born American citizen... Someboy knows this, and has the power to either have it revealed, or keep it under wraps with a shower of bullets every time it bubbles to the surface... If he ever strays from the reservation... THAT's the poison pill (which would 'demolish' him forevermore...
Bottom line is what I always say...
FIAT is dead (or more accurately - 'on life support', either NEVER to be revived, OR, just keeping the vital organs alive to be donated to science when the time is needed)...
The controllers of fiat already know this & are playing a game of trying to keep it alive while they have enough time to buy up all the real estate & otherwise 'bottlenecks' on the flow of raw goods... It's USELESS to look at the paper prices of the raw goods as there are 'crosscurrents' always in play... Those being... an attempt to manipulate the spot prices on those (get em on the cheap - so to say)... But also, ironically, they ought to still have the 'look' of being technically bullish over decade long passages of time...
It really all is quite genius...
Anyway... (& frankly - so as NOT to be a hypocrite)... If you can't beat em, join em... I'm not planning on becoming RICH in the process (while Rasputin/dollar stays alive)... I'm just trying to make it to the other side...
@AAIP (9:19)
Keiser ought to wonder (as CV does)... If that 2400 tons is in Italy, or in Vatican City...
They're actually quite different, if you know what I mean...
@72,
"what evidence would you cite that obama has any say in such legislative domain power brokering"
There is no evidence besides looking at the people Obama has put in the position of Czar, they are often friends of his, other members of Acorn, people that clearly share his worldview etc. Perhaps he is an empty suit, but then he must have convinced those in charge to allow his buddies to man these posts, people that just so happen share what is clearly his authoritarian agenda.
Of course, IF Obama was able to lobby to put his friends in these positions, well then, he's not an empty suit is he?
CV,
the hand-wringing that is likely going on about our AAA rating is really good comedy, it's already all over the news that S&P had a $2 trillion math error in their projections, now someone like yourself might like to say that S&P didn't screw up, the power families that you claim control the world put this news out to make them look bad publicly but most of us know that S&P is not capable of properly identifying risk, if the last few years aren't enough evidence of this I'm not sure what people want/are looking for to understand this.
S&P hasn't told the market ANYTHING it doesn't already know, nor is there a need for ratings agencies, if we are entering a new bear market you'll get to watch yields tank even more and the dollar get stronger (oh my!), it will be mind blowing for all the exogenous cause efficient marketeers as well as conspiracy theorists.
"Arguably, the main reason Obama is in power was because of 'backing' by interested bankers... Namely - banking 'families' & otherwise the cartels that run things for them..."
Man I just sit and roll my eyes every single time I read someone spouting off about this, which is every single day now, not surprisingly. Everyone that gets into power has powerful backing....of course! Yep, only banks supply big money to the administration to advance their own agenda and to lobby for laws that benefit them to the detriment of others, no other industry doing that at all. Right.
Are we really so foolish to believe that all these supposed "power families" that are "the real ones in control, we just know for sure" are only in banking?
not likely at all, they'd have to have a foot plant in every major industry in the world, banking is the easy target that everyone knows to identify.....thats all, if Oil gets to $200/bbl then you'll hear more about the evil oil companies, for starters.
"The 'latest' is that if Geithner goes, the next guy in line would be none other than ex-Goldman John Corzine... and the beat goes on..."
I highly doubt this, they aren't going to risk a debate that will be widely followed in public by the Senate on confirmation of the new TS who just so happens to be another Goldman alum that helped to run New Jersey right into the ground......Matt Taibbi has become mainstream,...so not very likely you'd be so foolish enough to do this right before an election.....but it wouldn't be the first time the power families that have controlled the entire globe for a thousand years made a tactical error would it
as for the rest of the nonsense about the fed, it doesn't have anything to do with anything, I already made clear earlier this week I'm not getting into that kind of circle jerk discussion with you anymore....pointless, the Fed is so levered now whatever happens from here on out will only be as a result of them reacting to the market pushing one way or the other, don't look know, but its happening right in front of your eyes.
all I'm reminded of in the reaction of S&P is that social mood leads social action
one couldn't claim this was anything but a response brought about by psychological imperative
because if it were simply about "the numbers" it should have been done a long time ago
@AAIP
what is your evidence that Keiser is a "sharp dude", he seems like a complete moron to me
wasn't he making sensational comments about silver right near the peak? among many other "calls"
oh yes indeed that was him, remember, JPM was going to go bust when silver hit $47, he was screaming it from the hills for weeks about their "massive short position"
if only he could read a financial statement it be so obvious they never had that short on
still waiting for them to fail from that $47 handle though.....any day now
come on guys, going to have to come to the table with something more legit than that to have any impact on changing my mind
@ben22
IMO... Barry teleprompter never was required to ever do any 'brokering' of any sort...
Witness any issue that comes up... It's basically... "OK you guys in Congress come up with some proposals & have them on my desk"...
yeah right... I'm sure he reads them all in the golf cart between shots...
Besides... getting to put your 5 BFF's into cushy 'do nothing' jobs is pretty much quid pro quo for the office... & every POTUS (& now TOTUS) in history has been given that as a 'perk'...
But I'm pretty sure you're already agreeing with that... I'm just airing it out more here...
---
The LOVELY thing about all these 'czars' & 'friends & family' plan is that it distracts J6P's into spending time in the partisan battlefield of things that are not important...
Chapters 4, 6, & 7 (in Sun Tzu's "Art of War")
@ben (11:04)
don't worry... I'll leave no stone unturned in my neverending search to find something that 'legitimately' makes sense to you... ror
Cause I'm...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEUQUFvuV6I
re: evil banks
You guys have all heard of
Proctor & Gamble
GM
Exxon Mobil
MONSANTO
should I keep going?
how about GD, BA, LMT, RTN......
um, the czar positions are not do nothing jobs
perhaps CV you do not understand the implications of what a czar is able to do
but probably impossible since you are an expert on everything
do nothing jobs my ass.....
and yes, pardon me for preferring arguments that do make sense over sensational stories...wow, I'm so crazy for acting in such a way
and btw CV
if Max Keiser was instead Barry Ritholtz and had made the claim that JPM would go bust the moment silver touched $47 then you'd be ripping him apart rather than trying to defend him
but hey, when someone agrees with you they must be right
and no, czars are not a partisan distraction, there is no partisan discussion, there is no discussion at all, thats the point!
completely denies whats happening there saying it's a partisan distraction....not even close
but sure, instead what really matters are the banking families
peace out folks, have a good weekend
@ben (the researcher)
In your infinitely profound 'fact data base', can you come up with CV comment where CV said... [paraphrasing or otherwise]...
That I 'agreed' with Max Keiser that JPM would 'go bust' if Ag touched $47???
---
In FACT... I remember telling people that:
- Ag would go to $50 (before it hit $20 - when it was at $30 [greeted with laughs all around])...
- Saying 'many times' over multiple blogs to 'watch out' (because big moves on PM's & FOREX often happen on holiday weekends - where the 'other side of the pond' markets are open - as in May 1st weekend)
- Saying back in May (that my call was shifting from "silver bitchez" - to > "arbitrage Au over Ag" (for probably the next 12-18 months)...
I don't really remember showering Max Keiser with any specific platitudes...
As far as 'the Morgue' is concerned... What I do remember mentioning (here on this blog) is that 'other people around the blogosphere' are saying "xyz" (an thus it ought to at least be on someone's RAdAR SCREEN if they consider themselves a PLAYER in the overall scheme of things)...
I don't remember saying that JPM would 'go bust' if Ag went over a certain level... & IN FACT... I've been saying quite the opposite...
I HAVE been saying that I think they're accumulating bullion as fast as they can possibly dance, meanwhile doing a PR campaign to suggest otherwise in an attempt to control the paper markets...
But don't let the facts as to what I've been saying CONFUSE you in your 100% conviction that CV is in bed with all the ZH 'zombies'...
People of this blog... expect ben's list of CV posts telling you that one Max Keiser = 10,000 Robert Prechters to come in 5...4...3...2...
and btw CV
if Max Keiser was instead Barry Ritholtz and had made the claim that JPM would go bust the moment silver touched $47 then you'd be ripping him apart rather than trying to defend him
---
I don't have to worry about such things (as a statement like that would be completely uncharacteristic of Barry Ritholtz)...
1. never mind the fact that NOWHERE is CV associated with Max Keiser (or any of his claims on $47, or anything to do with JPM)... I said Ag was going to $50... STOP... My call had nothing to do with Max Keiser... I even said that I was "fading silver" (proxy by arbitraging to Au when Ag hit $50)... As for the Morgue... How can I possibly think that high silver price is going to sink them (when I think they're accumulating as fast as they can)...
It's fucking easy... They could PAPER SHORT to infinity for all anyone cared... When the moments of reckoning come (as with TARP - or 'moments' like that)... Rules get changed, paper losses get wiped off the books...
Privatized gains, public losses...
2. Anyway, the best Ritholtz could ever be capable of coming up with is some short thread (3 days after the fact about how he mysteriously "lightened up" on Ag a few days before... Followed by a thread on how we need the advice of Krugman now more than ever... Followed by a consumers guie to yacht sales...
CV,
are you serious?, I hardly need to dig all your posts up, you said the same thing so many times I'm sure people here can remember it
you LOVED the JPM short silver story, you were all over it, and of course you like Max Keiser I never said he was the reason you made your call, simply that you agree with him, and better get busy on admitting it because he said the exact same thing you did, your comments when JPM didnt' blow evolved to something along the lines of "well, even if it didn't happen there is no doubt in my mind they are hoarding all the worlds resources, and recently focus shifted to goldman sachs and their warehouses"
I think thats called rationalization....have you ever once said you were wrong about anything? Last time you got real loud and had to admit to being wrong about the call you simply blamed the Fed but if I remember correctly on that one there was "no doubt in your mind" your call would have been right if not for the Fed.....
your typical response at the time of the supposed huge JPM short when I'd suggested you read their financial statements so that you'd stop already with the comments of the big short position they had on, were, as I recall, that you would not do so because you knew better than what was on there, even if it didn't show up on the reports you knew it was still happening anyway.
lets not try and deny it by "proving to us all" how right you are 100% of the time with your bullet point calls where you pretend you top and bottom tick everything and comments like this shit:
"So whatever... fast forward... Pretty much everything I'd ever expected out of Obama.......has come true"
how do I bold that part where you say....'welllll, pretty much EVERYTHING I'd ever expected out of Obama has come true', despite the fact that I can't define what I expected, since it was a gut feeling
Yeah....you and Sarah Palin......
lots of us thought Obama was going to be a horrible thing, you didn't possess any magic insight there
As for your silver calls or any calls, you know why nobody is slapping your back?
because you aren't even trading and you weren't then either, and so it's no different than the person that yells all day about their paper trading account at TD Ameritrade that has 1 billlioooon dollars in it
it's meaningless
it's really easy to sit back and make comments on markets when no money is on the line as if there isn't an extreme emotional difference when there is and you sit there and expect us all to believe that you'd have gotten out of silver right at the exact peak, which was never $50 if I'm not mistaken, but who's counting..... just in time for your arb call on gold, ok.
If I even cared I'd dig it up to figure out if you made your gold arb call after silver got the big haircut from $48.
But sure, continue to ridicule me for not subscribing to your gut feel process, I'm such a fool for researching things first before I spout off about how I know for sure all about them because my gut tells me so.....only a real clown would do something like that.
cv, I remember that call (not trying to get inbetween you and B22's discussion) and I posted a bubblelicious chart, then bot some ZSL near when silver was close to $48... hehe, but, I'm not here to discuss that. Do you vaccuum seal anything? Those frik'n bags seem expensive. I've tried regular ziplock and other types of plastic but to no avail. So, do you know of any tricks to make vac-paks?
@ben
....'welllll, , despite the fact that I can't define what I expected, since it was a gut feeling
pretty much EVERYTHING I'd ever expected out of Obama has come true'---
Easy answer... Because...
'pretty much EVERYTHING I'd ever expected out of Obama has come true' = I thought, from the beginning, that obama would 'pretty much' be an ineffective jerk-off... & I was right... So I'm 1 for 1!!!
as if there isn't an extreme emotional difference when there is and you sit there and expect us all to believe that you'd have gotten out of silver right at the exact peak, which was never $50 if I'm not mistaken, but who's counting
Answer: "I'm counting... & there IS real money on the line"...
I stated numerous times that I was looking for the right moment to actually effectuate the arbitrage...
I never mentioned "top ticking"... Because you can't really do that to any specific degree in PHYSICAL markets (as you can with electronic paper transactions)... You have to make your best guess... Furthermore, you pay a 'wickedly higher' transaction premium to do so (which I've LAMENTEd on many times - but you -instead prefer to ZERO IN on my boasting of:
- correct Super Bowl calls
- correct Oscars calls
& try to spin them into some kind of 'Max keiser' dNA double helix metaphor...
---
Once again... What I actually HAVE said, are the following:
- I asked Amen Ra (multiple times on occasions these past months), to PLEASE put up an Au-Ag ratio chart... Why? Because I was PERSONALLY interested in the right moments to ACTUALLY MAKE the transactions... I felt no need to actually share my motivations for such with anyone on this blog (because you are all mostly FIAT PAPER addicts - so why bother)...
- I did not "top tick" silver... Nor claim to have one so... I said the price would go to $50... I think it hit within a nickel... YOU YOURSELF made a comment on this blog acknowleging to me that "OK - I'll give you the $50"... I made NO OTHER claims... Other than to say that I' be looking to arbitrage out... I said many times that I was NOT involved in paper silver (so I was NOT playing any ZSL games, or anything of the sort)... I didn't arbitrage out MYSELF at $50 (because the move down was too swift)... A few weeks ago... I made many comments here on the blog that I was interested (from Andy) as to what the "wave counts" might look like to him... The $42 area became an area of interest... It just about hit that mark the other week & I even made a comment on this blog that I was headed to the coin shop that day to exchange some scrap (arbitrage)...
Anyway - bottom line is... HOW DARE YOU say something like "CV has nothing at stake here"...
I'm not fucking Thor dude, so kiss my lily white ass if you want to look down your nose at me and flip me off because I don't happen to manage millions of 'others fiats'...
El Tigre cards a 72 on a Saturday on a course that he has absolutely OWNED....
Guess we shouldn't have expected that much after this much time off ....
& actually...
I take ONE comment back... The one where I said that I never mentioned anything about "top-ticking"...
I pretty much remember LAMENTING (at one point), that in the reality process of arbitraging silver into Au... I was likely going to face the spectre of "top ticking" Au when the transaction would finally take place...
That was about 2 months ago...
& it's looking close to ALSO being a correct observation...
Now you can go think up a way to link me ON THAT to max Keiser...
Looks like the DOJ took another beatdown in the Courts....that big GenRe/AIG deal, the one where Uncle Warren "the Benevolent" threw his top execs under the bus, was reversed by the Second Circuit.
The government has suffered a lot of losses on the White collar front...it's one of the reasons you're not seeing as many "perp walks" for these bankers/mortgage people. The DOJ's track record in this area is HORRIBLE.
Jeff Skilling will, in all likelihood, eventually walk free.
It's very difficult to gain convictions in these areas because so many of them involve mostly dubious or wrongheaded business choices/risk. But when the shit hits the fan in the U.S., we always want to see someone go to jail.
This guy at Houston's Clear Thinkers is biased on the subject, but he does a good job of pounding the government/media...and he's a true Libertarian...so I read him.
http://blog.kir.com/archives/2011/08/the_second_circ.asp
The DOJ's track record in this area is HORRIBLE...
The DOJ managed to only last one day in "The United States vs. Roger Clemens"
How the hell do you think they're gonna put any bankers in jail?
---
PS... SOMEWHERE in that comment (if you look very closely), is a bonafide comment on how CV thinks Max Keiser is GOD Almighty himself - & that JPM will file for bankruptcy by next week if paper Ag doesn't crash 5% by Monday morning...
Hope and YTD Percent Change
USD, GOLD ...up
SILVER, GASO, SPX, CRUDE, COPPER, NATGAS ...down
Note:
The comment...
"How the hell do you think they're gonna put any bankers in jail?" is nothing more than an attempt at sarcastic comedy"...
So... months from now... when someone gains the initiative to search back in the records of CV's statements &/or predictions... File that in the "comedy" class (not the "prediction" class)...
I like to keep as unblemished of a record as possible... :-)
@Q's...
Of more interest... possibly... to the readers of this blog than actually to myself...
Might be THIS COMMENT (back in the day a bit)...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/12/morning-audibles-122710.html?showComment=1293478861468#c2851621857284717711
---
In any case... it occurs to CV (in reference to the linked comment)... That this weeks WEEKLY $SPX close is the FIRST weekly candle close UNDER, the weekly candle close since the time of that comment...
IOW... We're basically, for the moment... UNDER the famous LEHMAN WEEKLY CANDLE again...
I likewise (as is my legal responsibility) advise you to COMPLETELY DISREGARD that comment... As you well know... the SOURCE is a 100% uncredentialed moron (with NOTHING AT STAKE except for 'fantasy blabillions' which feed - [no - not feed... SUCK]... on the bacterial & otherwise microbial underscum of 'gut calls')
Yours Truly,
Richard Head :-)
@Q's
For the 'double moron effect'... You might as well read the comment just after the above linked one...
Penned by the same moron, of course...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/12/morning-audibles-122710.html?showComment=1293479022580#c8674850817953266389
Delicious irony if Adam Scott wins this tournament .... Woods' first tourney w/out Steve Williams on the bag..... and Adam Scott wins WITH Steve Williams.
Crazy.
Andy -- thought you were going to Lollapalozza, no?
AT, if you're going to do charts this week, could you do a check on NATTY Some months ago I said if it gets below $4, I'm buying tons of it! Now, I'm prolly 60/40 on the trade.
" but you -instead prefer to ZERO IN on my boasting of:
- correct Super Bowl calls
- correct Oscars calls"
you crack me up sometimes. you just repeated in all those posts what I just said for so thanks for verifying....you are never ever wrong
sorry bro, you DO boast about everything from your market calls to being smarter than anyone that trades paper stocks to being a varsity letterman as a freshman to understanding people better than everyone here because you've been around the world like Lisa Stansfield and in between you get everything else right as well like Oscar calls, the SuperBowl and every single thing that Obama has done since he's become president,......or do I just magically know these things because of my gut feelings? If Jesus Christ is the Lord of Hosts then CV is surely the Lord of Boasts.
as for the "how dare you say"
I'm saying whatever I please, and I'll continue to do so.....isn't that the way you wanted it, if not stop talking about how you and Thor are so different, which btw, no matter what, I would never insult you by comparing you to him.
I've rarely brought Prechter up at all in over a year and yet that's a constant fallback when you argue with me.....funny thing is you sound just like him right now
congrats on your silver call, it was a good one, you still weren't trading it though and if you want to talk about all the physical you own quit relaying the profits as if they were tied to the paper prices.....
Also, I'm not sure who you are trying to fool here into thinking that one can get away with operating on gut feeling in markets, there are no wealthy market operators ever that did such a thing, not a single one.
cv, you're beating yourself up man!
Chill, you have a comfortable life! ...so don't raise your own blood pressure.
you still haven't answered my question about vacuum packing. I've come to realize that there is not a cheaper solution. I don't mind paying the seemingly high prices for the rolls but just thought you may know some tricks, some do's and don'ts. I even vacuum my qt's of oil in case they may leak... LOL.
I have alot of stuff that I've sealed and keep the sealed paks in canvas bags when traveling. Since I do travel alot, this could come in handy if I get stranded.
McB,
re: Keiser, it's, a little like..
ODDFELLOWS LOCAL 151 LYRICS
Oddfellows local 151 behind the firehouse
Where Peewee sits to prove a sage to teach
Peewee gathered up his proof
Reached up and scratched his head
Fell down and hit the ground again
Firehouse. Firehouse.
Why do the heathens rage behind the firehouse
Where Peewee sits upon the wall to preach?
This boy and girl that gather pearls
Of wisdom falling from his mouth
Wash off the blood, wash off the rum
Firehouse. Firehouse.
Oddfellows local 151 behind the firehouse
Where Peewee sits upon the wall to preach.
This boy and girl that gather pearls
Of wisdom falling from his mouth
Wash off the blood, wash off the 151.
Firehouse. Firehouse.
Firehouse. Firehouse.
http://www.lyrics007.com/Rem%20Lyrics/Document%20Lyrics.html
with Keiser, I find, that 'one' has to "wipe off the blood, wipe off the 151", and, then, yes, He's a sharp dude..
I'm not, exactly, sure where he was coming from on the JPM 'deal', though, you didn't hear me "endorsing it" ...
AAIP
QQQQ's,
re: vaccuum sealers..
check this one out..
http://pump-n-seal.com/
for Bell Jars it works like a champ..
the 'Bowl Lids' are pretty cool, too, for 'Marinading' various things, as well..
ibid.
@jennifer.
I couldn't get any willing partners to go. Cheap bastards.
Also, been travelling a lot this summer...the timing just wasn't awesome.
I guess I'll fork over the dough for the DVD. It should be an awesome show.
McB,
also, re: Keiser
see some of..
"...Hollywood Stock Exchange
Main article: Hollywood Stock Exchange
Keiser is the creator, co-founder and former CEO of HSX Holdings/Hollywood Stock Exchange, later sold to Cantor Fitzgerald.[5] Max co-created the Hollywood Stock Exchange with Michael R. Burns.[6] The Hollywood Stock Exchange allows traders to exchange virtual securities such as "MovieStocks", and "StarBonds" and convertible virtual currency, the Hollywood Dollar.
Keiser is also the co-founder of HSX films that went on to make almost a dozen films, including "Mixed Signals", "Six-String Samurai", "Dancer, Texas Pop. 81", and "girl". The company then sold to Ignite Entertainment/Lionsgate..."
The HSX 'technology' was very novel..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Keiser
+ he has the 'Stick' to say things that most People are afraid to, even, think, let alone whisper, out loud..
ibid.
@ibid
Thx, I've seen that one but it looked cheap to me. I bought an electric one years ago that stated you could do regular plastic bags... didn't work very well. I prolly should buy one that isn't electric and this one says it does regular zip-lock bags. I would probably double up on the zip-locks to make it even stronger.
Also, I don't do glass jars because most of my stuff is packed into my trunk when traveling.
Thx again, I'll give it a try.
QQQQQ's,
there's a 'demo' video on that site, as well..
I'm not sure 'what you're packin'', but, it recommends to use a thin film of (vegetable) oil, near the 'zip-lock', to aid in maintaing the 'vaccuum'..
ibid.
@Q's
I am chillin bro...! because thius stuff is FUN for me...
God Almighty knows (who is not CV), that CV only partakes in things that are fun &/or interesting...
:-)
@ben
you DO boast about everything from your market calls to being smarter than anyone that trades paper stocks to being a varsity letterman as a freshman to understanding people better than everyone here because you've been around the world like Lisa Stansfield and in between you get everything else right as well like Oscar calls, the SuperBowl and every single thing that Obama has done since he's become president,......or do I just magically know these things because of my gut feelings? If Jesus Christ is the Lord of Hosts then CV is surely the Lord of Boasts...
Correct! (so if the game starts from today, you're 1 for 1)...
But just to 'tinker' a little...
- My varsity letter claim has/had more to do with 13 varsity letters in 4 years - go figure THAT math... Not 'plebian' freshman lettering (which, I imagine, about ANY hack could accomplish)...
- on the subject of "understanding people more than the rest"???... I never made that FACTUAL statement... Which would be idiot for ANYONE to claim because what would be the benchmark?... Instead - I humbly come with simple factual offerings that I have presented direct experiences, over 15,000 times, in 45 countries, over a 30 year timespan, to an average crowd audience of, let's say, 50 people... Thankfully - I had the pleasure of looking into their eyes in those moments, and TRUTHFULLY did my best to 'feel' what they were thinking, in aggregate, in those moments (and afterwards)... In my otherwise unworldly & sophmoric calculation of the nature of such... I'd probably say that the experience counts for something...
- Oscar calls are simple... Just take the 'holocaust tragedy' based movies 9even if the theme only exists within the 6 degrees of separation)... It's 'formulaic' (as I've often mentioned)... So basically I just BAFFLE YOU WITH BULLSHIT there (because I KNOW that everyone is so duped to be politically correct), their minds haven't yet grasped from whence the 'gut call' emanates...
- What can I say about the SuperBowl & Aaron Rodgers (you know - '43' points Aaron Rodgers in the infamous Bo Jacksons vs. Rampage Jacksons clash)... My only question is... When THE FUCK are you people going to start putting some STOCK into those types of calls instead of sitting on your hands and then HATING me for being boastful about them after the fact... Mohammed Ali, Joe Namath, CV... Bunch of fucking LOSERS!
- Every single thing that Obama has done???... I think I recall having said that Obama would essentially DO NOTHING... So I stand vindicated (until you point out to me how wrong I am)...
"Lord of Boasts"...
Now I FUCKING LOVE THAT!!!
It's my NEW user ID on this blog (you know - the one I'm going to 'quit in 5...4...3...2... - but is actually a 'Holliday' (Thank You)...
:-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmdfD2byTuY
wow, wtf?
cv--
what's up?
what can I do for you?
AAIP
@AAIP
Thanks for chiming in... :-)
in the process... I admit that I came up with something today, that I regret I'd overlooked the other day...
But before I do that... THIS... (in response to your 6:49 inquiry)...
---
ALGREN
Mr. Graham ... Take this.
From his coat, Algren takes his journal, hands it to Graham.
ALGREN
Maybe you can use it for your book.
GRAHAM
I will.
---
He heads back to the relative safety of the horse corral.
Meanwhile, the samurai remain impassive as artillery is stepped in closer, the
range bracketed. Then artillery rounds begin to fall among them.
Samurai are blown to pieces as they bravely stand and await death. Katsumoto BARKS a command to Ujio.
Suddenly, the Samurai break ranks and trot into a new defense alignment. The artillery rounds now fall ineffectually where once
they stood.
Bagley directs the artillery to be re-targeted, It is a laborious, clumsy process. They fire again. Another command. The Samurai change
position again.
Bagley is furious. Their fluid tactics have rendered his field artillery useless.
Katsumoto and Algren share a look of grim satisfaction. They are leveling
the playing field.
Bugle calls are heard from the Imperial Army.
ALGREN
The call to advance.
---
The rattle of the snare drums. The sound of marching boots.
And then they appear. Thousands upon thousands of them. The Imperial Army marching relentlessly forward in strict formation. The Rising Sun displayed.
Katsumoto gazes at the awe-inspiring sight. His 500 samurai face a staggering 5,000 soldiers.
KATSUMOTO
Tell me ... what happened to those three hundred
warriors at Thermopylae?
page 108.
ALGREN
(a grim smile)... Dead to the last man.
Katsumoto glances to him, smiles.
---
Shortly thereafter... THESE SCENES (which CV will honorably admit that ALL Hollywood scenes are NOT just holocaust recollections, but INSTEAD true attempts at knowledge & rememberance... It's just that the AWARDED films in March just happen to fall into a certain class...
1st scene after...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZTWCwqmgLc
Last poignant scene...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTbe9lpopLM&feature=related
@AAIP
& to answer your question more specifically...
"HAI... You can do nothing more for me... CAPTAIN ALGREN... Domo Arigato" (CV bows)...
I am a pretty big fan of Chips Ahoy! When I stilled lived with my father, we used to race each other eating sleeves of them. Its the one cookie, in my opinion, where the store brands never quite stack up to the original.
Anyhow, my dad called me recently and claims that the cookies in the family size box taste differently than the standard 2-row box. In response, I went out and bought the family size box. I ate all of them this past week and I think they taste the same as the standard box (i.e., my dad is going insane).
Is anyone out there familiar enough with Chips Ahoy to run a taste test?
@AAIP (6:49)
(Lord of Boasts)dammit...
I COMPLETELY fucked up there!
I forgot to use my REAL (Thor inspired) name...
THOR is definitely a 'better' god than me... I'll strive to improve (for Amen & Andy's sake)...
otherwise you all might become ANONYMOUS TRADERS instead of TRADERS ANONYMOUS...
I've studied the the quantum & molecular levels of such a theorem...
It would RIP the very fabric of the universe... Trust me... you DON'T want that shit on your karmic conscience :-)
I should also add that my brother has taken the challenge and he also thinks the family size box tastes different.
@Matthew (7:56)
That is inherently a BEN biased interrogative (because it is well documented that the resident WHIZ KID from Penn State [of which LOB - Lord of Boasts - resident @sshole will submit to] - is a Chips Ahoy slave...
So [Defense attorney for LOB issues "Objection" to judge]...
LOB humbly 'stipulates' (his honors Andy T or Amen Ra) for adjudication...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgIBG8q1Gjc&feature=related
@2stb (earlier - LOB didn't happen to catch this earlier)
I heard a stat today on a FF podcast that 6 or 7 of previous year's top 12 RBs finish outside top 24 in the next year (something like 10 years running) - haven't checked it though...maybe Hillis will be one of them
---
My mello...
You're going to listen to THat????
Well - as always... It's KINDA right... But nobody know WHY THE FUCK it's right... Which is WHY they lose FF leagues to the likes of Lord of Boasts...
Footnote: But they'll be SURE to comment on the S&P tomorrow...
Let's NOT get into "Prechter style" analysis on the subject... LOB will just hit the relevant highlights (in BULLET POINTS - just for effect)...
- If a RB gets more than 400 carries in a single season then he's automatically TOAST (statistically/value speaking) for the following season...
Click on...
Neely.com or Prechter.com & I'm sure they'll give you the WAVE breakdown on such...
---
NOTE: TO ALL...
Lord of Boasts ACTUALLY thinks 'Neely' & 'Prechter' are FUCKING GENIUSES (no lie)... That's all..
Now... WHAT ARE YOU GONNA DO???
Matthew
I usually get the bag w/2 rows from Walmart (cheapest price around). I'll check and see if they have the family size and give it a try.
Amen Ra... arbitrage effectuator par excellence!!!
That's why EVERYONE LOVES YOU my mello...
Hold on... On the next comment... DJ-LOB is gonna send you a special "shout out"... :-)
Here are the 'special Saturday Night' shout-outs (from LOB's DEEPEST 'FM' radio mello voice)...
Chill... :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCSvNZWpXaM
or otherwise... THEMLA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKrRrGLqpLo&feature=related
@ben
Alright... STOP!!! "Collaborate & Listen"...
TRUCE... My mello...
LOB really don't 'kin' to have the discourse devolve into THIS vs. THIS...
2legit2quit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdk1gwWH-Cg
vs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rog8ou-ZepE
Apologetically... when cv/lob 'kins' something... It's more along these lines...
Rock on bitchez! :-)
Umm... sorry... forgot link...(I hope I'm not fired)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKC0Th07IoA
Before we "carry on" (anonomysly - as ALWAYS the case may conveniently dictate)... Let's 'relish' a few facts...
---
"I'm not interested in making what I'm going to say an argument. Just a quick 'hit & run' point...
Now follow this logic... (hatred towards bullet points acknowledged)...
- Arguably, the main reason Obama is in power was because of 'backing' by interested bankers... Namely - banking 'families' & otherwise the cartels that run things for them...
- If one thinks that Obama's war chest came about mostly by those $5 donations they ought to have their head examined...
- The point is underscored, because one of the main SUCCESSES that Obama has had is in getting regulations thru that have been beneficial to the banking industry (while spinning the rhetoric that he was a 'man of the people' fighting wall st.)...
- The 'latest' is that if Geithner goes, the next guy in line would be none other than ex-Goldman John Corzine... an the beat goes on...
---
So what I'm basically saying is... In a "the Fed has nothing to do with anything world"... Is what I've been saying all along...
Maybe they have nothing to do with anything, but it's not like they're not trying...
Arguments to commence in 5...4...3...2...
To add some color (no pun intended) to what I'm saying... Most people know that I was directly against Obama all along... I would have even taken Hilary over Obama if it came down to that...
But at the time, one could never really pinpoint anything negative to say about Obama... There were NO CHARTS TO read because his past was largely void... So if you were AGAINST him (like I was - it was mostly just a 'gut feeling' - something that told me something wasn't right from years of analyzing people)...
LORD OF BOASTS still waiting for stipulation whereby CV had a 'laundry list' FULL of itemized Obama objections coming in 5...4...3...2..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/treasury-continues-childish-sniping-sp-while-losing-credibility-investors-lose-sleep
As Treasury Continues Childish Sniping At S&P While Losing Credibility, Investors Lose Sleep
Today at about 4 pm, the Treasury's John Bellows issued a hastily written statement, in which he explained why in his view, a day after a historic downgrade of its debt, the $2 trillion mistake that S&P made "raises fundamental questions about the credibility and integrity of S&P’s ratings action." What is ironic is that in the explanation, it is the Treasury's own credibility that is put at stake. Supposedly the reason for the mix up is as follows: "S&P incorrectly added that same $2.1 trillion in deficit reduction to an entirely different “baseline” where discretionary funding levels grow with nominal GDP over the next 10 years. Relative to this alternative “baseline,” the Budget Control Act will save more than $4 trillion over ten years – or over $2 trillion more than S&P calculated. (The baseline in which discretionary spending grows with nominal GDP is substantially higher because CBO assumes that nominal GDP grows by just under 5 percent a year on average, while inflation is around 2.5 percent a year on average." So let's get this straight: the Treasury department is kicking and screaming at S&P for daring to downgrade the US, when it is using as its baseline a forecast prepared by the same CBO which back in 2001 predicted a net negative debt balance by 2008 (!), and which in the same year expected 2011 US GDP to be $16.9 trillion, and a budget surplus of about $1 trillion, putting any S&P forecast from the peak of the credit bubble, to shame, but far more importantly, Bellows, and his plethora of bosses, is pissed that the S&P did not use a baseline that assumes a 5% GDP annual growth, when current annualized GDP, 2 years after the end of the recession, is under 2%? And this is what is supposed to make S&P less than credible? This is like the pot and the kettle having commenced global thermonuclear warfare.
The key sentence of that quote:
Bellows, and his plethora of bosses, is pissed that the S&P did not use a baseline that assumes a 5% GDP annual growth, when current annualized GDP, 2 years after the end of the recession, is under 2%? And this is what is supposed to make S&P less than credible?
Chips Ahoy are really good.
I could take down a bag no problem...but normally only buy the two-row variety.
I'll take that Pepsi-challenge this week.
"other super important things..."
Went and saw that movie Crazy, Stupid, Love...was date night with the wife.
Can recommend it. As far as RomComs go, this one was ok for sure.
So, standard and poors downgrades the US Debt....
Anyone else think this matters?
I don't. I think the S&P, and all the other ratings folks, are going to come to the realization that they serve a meaningless role in society.
I'm not even sure why there are 'ratings agencies' at all.
It's and old, and now silly concept...
The MARKET rates the bonds EVERY SINGLE DAY.
Fantastic Andy!!! (but otherwise duty calls)...
THESE...
- Arguably, the main reason Obama is in power was because of 'backing' by interested bankers... Namely - banking 'families' & otherwise the cartels that run things for them...
Apparently - ben seems to DISAGREE with this observation (which is eithere ASTUTE or IDIOTIC as the case may be)...
- "If one thinks that Obama's war chest came about mostly by those $5 donations they ought to have their head examined"...
Same comment as before...
#2
"one of the main SUCCESSES that Obama has had is in getting regulations thru that have been beneficial to the banking industry (while spinning the rhetoric that he was a 'man of the people' fighting wall st.)..."
...ibid
meh -
thanks for that pump'n'seal url. i'd lost track of and had been searching for it recently. seems to be the lo-tec solution that, even with some fail-rate %, is still an effective option, regardless bag stock expense. can work on other containers as well with the seal-tabs.
ben & cv -
cannot begin to tote up the inestimable "value received" in info, insights, tips, pov's, weltanschaung, what-have-you that each of you have brot to the succession of blogs thru which many of us have followed.
i bring/have brought little if any of that to the discourse, a grateful observer at most, interjecting huzzah's and bon mots from time to time, but really guys, to tell the truth, it's a slog wading thru what presumably starts off as persiflage (a la aaip, def., light and slightly contemptuous mockery or banter) and descends into what seems little more than cock struts which neither inform nor enlighten.
maybe you two ought have your own venue for pissing matches in which to relieve yourselves.
as i am somewhat in my cups in the wee hours, as bertie no doubt would appreciate, just tell me to piss off, too.
props to bot' of yez
g'night, gracie.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/it-just-went-bad-far-far-worse-germany-says-italy-too-big-efsf-save-refuses-carry-euro-bailout
It Just Went From Bad To Far, Far Worse As Germany Says Italy Is Too Big For EFSF To Save, Refuses To Carry Euro Bailout Burden
Remember when we said (yesterday) that Germany will soon balk over the fact that it is pledging its entire economy to bail out an insolvent Europe? Well, that moment has come.
Dow Jones just hitting the tape referencing Spiegel
* German Govt: Italy Too Big For EFSF To Save - Spiegel
* German Govt: Doubts Whether Tripling EFSF Would Help It Save Italy
* German Govt: Italy Must Make Savings, Reforms To Exit Crisis - Spiegel
* Italy Debt Guarantee Could Raise Doubts Over Germany's Finances - Spiegel
* German Govt: EFSF Should Only Help Small, Mid-Size Countries - Spiegel
As a reminder, yesterday's stopgap announcement by the ECB to expand its SMP purchases of secondary market Italian and Spanish bonds was merely as a precursor to full EFSF monetization until its comes fully online in September (or sooner) in a vastly expanded format (between €1.5 and €3.5 trillion).
If Germany is now against this, which appears to be the case, it pretty much means, well, game over.
Add the uncerainty over the unwind of the Europe rescue "gamechanger" as one of the more naive CNBC anchors said yesterday, and Monday is now guaranteed to be a bloodbath.
As for those saying China will gladly step in and fund a $5 trillion EFSF shortfall, they may want to read the following article from Reuters:
Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said on Thursday that Asian investors are reluctant to buy Italian bonds because it sees they are not being bought by the European Central Bank.
Speaking at a news conference, Tremonti also said it would be desirable for the central bank to follow the lead of the Japanese and Swiss central banks in taking expansionary steps to tackly the euro zone's crisis.
"I note that the Bank of Japan today launched quantitative easing and the Swiss central bank cut rates to zero, we are waiting for decisions if possible, but desirable (from the ECB)," Tremonti said.
When you talk to Asia they say: "We don't understand what Europe is," he continued. "The second point is that they say 'if your central bank doesn't buy your bonds, why should we buy them"?
I thought this might be a blog for traders. But it should be renamed Crazy Ranters Corner.
blogger testing
testing
testing
testing
Few thoughts
1. I'll get the family pack of CA's and see if I can taste a difference, should be able to tell if there is.
2. "Anyone else think this matters?": S&P downgrade
Absolutely not, I think it's obvious that it was told to players this was coming over two weeks ago, I even caught wind that it was basically certain early Friday afternoon when I found out the NAV crunchers at BlackRock were informed they'd be staying late and may need to take large haircuts because this would be announced. S&P is not telling anyone anything and the fact that they made a $2 trillion error in their report doesn't help their already poor credibility either. They will lose even more credibility in the next 30 days if this isn't followed up with other downgrades.
Also, I'd just like to say its trend extrapolation what they did, and what value, exactly, does that add???
3. There is no need to have another blog for CV and I, I made quite clear earlier in the week I'm not having any more discussions with him on the markets as that is pointless to do, clearly these posts have nothing to do with the market. If I have offended anyone with my apparent cock strutting, well, then I apologize.
So sorry that I'm the only one here that is beyond tired of the Gnomes from Zurich explanation for EVERYTHING and have trouble ignoring those posts over and over again, it was too predictable that discussion would rage on the morning after a downgrade, for some reason it annoyed me extra special like yesterday, I expect more from people here I guess.......but more important, I had not realized that every single thing I typed on here needed to be something of great trading value for all the nameless anons that apparently frequent the blog, especially on a Saturday when nobody could possibly be trading anyway!
but if that is the case you can expect perhaps one post a month from me moving forward,.... if that, most of the "insight" I bring here was already figured out by other people a few weeks/months/years before I tune into it and perhaps I'm just expanding on their thoughts, that's just the reality.
but since it's Sunday now let me try some pretend insight outside of trading
"- Arguably, the main reason Obama is in power was because of 'backing' by interested bankers... Namely - banking 'families' & otherwise the cartels that run things for them..."
what seems more reality based to me, something I can measure, was that the general public in the majority loved this guy (Obama), starting with all my ultra liberal buddies that told me I was an asshole for not voting for him and didn't "get what was going on in America" peppered with "oh I guess you'd prefer another Bush then" along the way....you know, Bush being the benchmark for presidency and all, later I was told I didn't get it because I "worked on Wall St." which is really pretty silly considering my job, it's not like I"m trading for GS.
Today would seem the new game is that anyone with a libertarian lean is now going to be blamed for all our countries problems while being marked as "terrorists" .....nice imagery there.
I remember like it was yesterday one of my loony tunes clients almost falling over in my office as she saw Obama come through Wilmington on the train during the campaign and he "waved at her" which was described as "breathtaking" "amazing" and "life changing".....her words. I really thought she was going to cry.
So what's the point?
the 1,000 year "banking cartel" that some of you like to pretend you know all about can't get their way without public support, it's that simple
if the banking cartels are as powerful as some of you like to pretend they are then ALL the candidates are theirs, it's not like they hand selected Obama to go against the others they'd have to pick a group of their own candidates,.....but then ultimately they have to go with the one the public leans toward
once in office this idea of control seems so totally off to me I can't help but laugh at it, how about I just share one line from a recent EWI publication (yeah, those guys) because it probably sums up what I mean better than I could:
"Government also moves by consensus, which
means it acts only once the trend is well established or
over."
now some might say....'what about all those comments you make about Authoritarian government and the control they are taking over all aspects of our daily lives?'
well I have been saying that for over two years now
and my response is simple
the public, in the net, is asking for it, it's what MOST people want, it's why when you see polls about "free markets" less and less people are saying they want it that way
as an example, it's why every single time you see some news broadcast about the latest old lady in a wheelchair that needs to be strip searched by the TSA "just in case" you get some soccer mom they interview over in terminal B saying
"whatever keeps us all safe" (in the happy Mom voice) in response to it all
the idea of total control by some secret cartel is an illusion in my opinion
More (potential) value added:
From my favorite Elliott Wave Theorist of them all, October 3, 2003:
Other Social Trends Forecasts for the remainder of the secular bear market:
1. Social groups, including economic, political, religious, genders and classes, will polarize and splinter further. I.e. they will polarize both internally and with respect to opposing groups.
2. The birth rate will continue to fall in the U.S and Europe until the bear market in social mood (as indicated by the downtrend in stock prices) ends
3. Religion will become increasingly popular. Its advocates will become increasingly passionate. Religious intolerance will increase.
4. Belief in magic will increase
5. Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes.
6. Epidemics will increase in number and severity. Malaria will return to the US. Eventually, DDT will be re-legalized.
7. Films will break new ground in horror, probably with themes that include suicide and torture.
8. Environmentalists will become militant and intentionally destructive.
9. Disney's family-fare feature cartoons will fall in popularity, and the studio will stop making them.
10. Professional baseball and basketball will suffer difficulties. New record performances by individuals will become rare. No team will have a "dynasty" during the bear market. Leagues will restructure. Attendance and viewership will fall. Salaries will decrease.
11. New brutal sports will be introduced and gain popularity.
12. Physical fitness "working out" will go out of style.
13. The US Space program will shut down
14. Conspiracy theories will become more plentiful, and more people will believe them.
15. People will rate "the future" as increasingly less promising.
16. Race relations will become strained and violent.
17. The suicide rate will go up
18. Mob violence will break out more often than it did from 1982-2000
19. Mass demonstrations, expressing anger with some social situation, will occur.
20. Hemlines will fall, and bright colors will go out of style.
21. Music sales will slump, and popular music will become somber and/or angry
22. Hedonism will flourish. Pornography will become more bizarre. These trends will meet with social and political backlash, as mainstream behavior will simultaneously become more conservative.
23. Popular self-help books will change focus from wealth and self improvement to surviving hard times and beating adversaries.
24. Cults and other escapist communities will be established.
25. Food scares, probably including mad cow disease, will hit the US
26. Most restaurants will decline in popularity. "Family-style" traditional fare and home cooking will become popular.
I could keep going, but that's probably enough.....happy Sunday
@WDYBtC 8:30a,
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/debate - “A formal contest of argumentation in which two opposing teams defend and attack a given proposition”
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/ignorance - “lack of knowledge, information, or education; the state of being ignorant“
Which would you choose … banning a debater? If the former, do you also wish to control the degree of passion in the debate? Is your tolerance on the passion scale uniform with all other readers? Surely you have learned something about physical, fiat, survival, supply and demand, and the educational value of opposing viewpoints from the debates here?
Athletes take 100 foul shots after practice, hit off a tee 100 times before the game, or run the routes over and over to get better when it counts. If important points were debated only once in this community across its evolution of blogs (from Fuzzy’s place to the current TA), would readers have learned as much?
Surely there is another trading blog you can read where they block people if the degree of poster passion is too high for you here …
Socionomist, April 2010:
"Mention authoritarianism and most people imagine its ultimate incarnation - a dictator wielding top-down control. The socionomic perspective, however, paints a fuller picture. Authoritarianism begins with a negative social mood trend, which in turn spawns a desire among some to submit to authority and among others to coerce their fellows to submit. At the same time, still others, caught up in the same emotional climate, battle against authoritarianism. We forecast that a continuing long-term trend toward negative social mood will produce increasingly authoritarian - and anti-authoritarian - impulses and eventually lead to the appearance of severe authoritarian regimes around the globe."
May 2010
" 'Authoritarianism and Economic Threat: Implications for Political Behavior' by Edward J. Rickert finds that when people feel threatened and vulnerable, they are more likely to submit to authority. They are also less tolerant of and more aggressive toward other groups and dissenters. As Robert Prechter showed on pages 227-233 of The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionimcs (HSB), these are classic bear market behaviors."
"Bob Altemeyer, author of The Authoritarian Specter, notes that some individuals are more likely than others to welcome authoritarianism. He writes in his online book, The Authoritarians:
Authoritarian followers...are in general, more afraid than most people are....A person's fear of a dangerous world predicts various kinds of authoritarian aggression better than any other unpleasant feeling.....We do have to fear fear itself....Fear can increase submission as well as aggression."
Altemeyer found that predisposed followers of authoritarians are willing to behave aggressively on behalf of those authorities, especially when they believe the authorities will sanction punitive action against some out-group. He notes that predisposed authoritarians are prone to:
sloppy reasoning, highly compartmentalized beliefs, double standards, hypocrisy, self-blindness, a profound ethnocentrism, and dogmatism that makes it unlikely anyone could ever change their minds with evidence or logic. These seven deadly shortfalls of authoritarian thinking eminently qualify them to follow a would-be dictator."
@72
Just funnin' (as always)... :-)
@ben
Just a question...
What quantative analysis (& by what source) do you have in your possession which validates such things like:
- belief in magic has seen a surge (is there a CZAR of 'belief in magic' that publishes some reports or something that I don't know about)?
- Cults and other escapist communities will be established. (as far as I can tell - they're just about always being established all the time)
This one made me laugh...
"Other Social Trends Forecasts for the remainder of the secular bear market:"
- People will rate "the future" as increasingly less promising.
Get right out of town!!! You mean that people, in a secular bear market, woul start thinking of the future as less promising? Whoda ever thunk it???
- Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes. (so are you referring to "green energy", or "jetpacks" - just to be clear)
- Physical fitness "working out" will go out of style. (been to a ZUMBA class lately?)
CV,
I've asked you this a few times lately because I'm really not certain about it:
Can you read?
those are not MY predictions as I VERY clearly indicated in the posts so you can end the questions about what I'm referring to and take it up with EWI, nor am I going to type out the entire 30 page paper of analysis, I simply provided the end results of it, do whatever you want with them, or nothing at all as they were not typed out for you, if you want the analysis that badly you can pay for a sub over there.
it's really easy to make the comments you are making now given that we are 11 years into the bear market, I'm supposing you'd all have us believe you wrote all those down in 1999 as well when Prechter made the majority of them, they were simply republished in the 03 paper that I have
and as for your last point about physical fitness, hilarious
no, I've not been to a Zumba class lately, but you know where i have been, the mall, outside, out to eat, the grocery store, and yeah....the gym, iow, around people
and you know what is easily seen by anyone that can see.....that there are obese people everywhere, surely in the net you aren't trying to deny that physical fitness is OUT
of course maybe Monday everyone is about to start working out and eating right.......
and what the hell, may as well do the rest of them:
"Get right out of town!!! You mean that people, in a secular bear market, woul start thinking of the future as less promising? Whoda ever thunk it???"
While this may seem entirely obvious to you or me but it isn't for many people, probably most people. Are you not aware of the fact that news outlets that most people follow and believe and pledge speculative capital on will report in a positive manner all kinds of polls in 1999 and 2000 showing future optimism as "positive for stocks and the economy" just as they did in 2007.....just like the negative outlook of the future in March 2009 reported on the news as "bad for stocks and the economy" ....again, which MOST people follow, and again in late 2010/early 2011 all the optimism about the future.....
there is often practical application in being contrarian when viewing the social mood in the context of the wave principle....that's the point here
"- Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes. (so are you referring to "green energy", or "jetpacks" - just to be clear)"
you understand the concept of varying degrees of trend do you not? Jet packs are something that are highly likely to be realized on a mass scale at some point "in the future", probably when all of us are dead, who knows, but major technological breakthroughs aren't likely in bear markets.
but let me provide an example of what might be indicated here.....just to be clear
"A March 2010 Harpers Magazine article describes huge advances in "non lethal...media -friendly" crowd-control technology:
Electrical weapons that shock and stun; laser weapons that cause dizziness or temporary blindness; acoustic weapons that deafen and nauseate; chemical weapons that irritate, incapacitate or sedate; projectile weapons that knock down, bruise and disable; and an assortment of nets, foams and sprays that obstruct or immobilize."
later stating
"appears to be the first arms race in which the opponent is the general population?
as for the Czar in magic......perhaps you missed it yesterday when I posted as you were busy counting up all your correct calls
there IS a "Faith-Based Czar" indeed......
"(as far as I can tell - they're just about always being established all the time)"
again, it's the concept of degree of trend, of course all of these things are always happening at some degree of trend, the question is what is the dominant trend as popularity in such things ebbs and flows
Oh trust me...
Just about ALL the fat people are actually IN the Zumba classes...
We write out class counts after our classes (zumba is right after my total conitioning class on Monday)... They pack 100 people into that room... You have to get a ticket 30 minutes before the class starts or you wont get in...
Anyway... my point is... If the people WEREN'T so fat, they could probably fit 150... :-)
The "quote" in your EWI list was about "working out"... When something is in quotes, I imagine it's an important element... But perhaps I'm mistaken...
At least it proves that I can, in fact, read...
But I'm sure someone will come along and prove to me that I can't read (by definition in some Chapter)...
I don't have a SUB so I guess I'll never know... I'd probably be interested in a sub, but my mind hasn't wrapped itself around the notion of plopping own cash for someone to enlighten me that people would get pessimistic in secular bear markets...
F'ing blogger, 100th post crashes the system??
??
Best Performing Style
Large-Cap Growth -7.45%
Worst Performing Style
Small-Cap Growth -10.89%
Leading Sectors
Tobacco -.95%
Telecom -2.23%
Utilities -3.81%
Restaurants -4.09%
Gold & Silver -4.74%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilding -13.17%
Alternative Energy -13.74%
Oil Service -13.84%
Oil Tankers -15.47
Coal -23.35%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
WWWW, GNET, EM, JCOM, EXLS, QLTY, ABCO, AMAG, SNCR and CCC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (150)
FFBC, SAM, AGN, BKI, INT, ICGE, GBCI, SFSF, ACTV, VSI, MD, PDCO, COLM, CCI, TRLG, DVA, PWR, GTY, BFS, MXWL, IRWD, BMC, MSCI, MDRX, CMP, ACC, BIO, VCI, PKI, EXPD, DECK, NATI, WXS, TXRH, CVH, ABAX, CFN, DRIV, FO, ENV, CI, HGR, CVG, NVE, FNFG, FARO, HAE, PLL, MGLN, P, MLM, CAR, BKE, AMSF, HCC, CCO, LEG, CTCT, OIS, IPCM, TWTC, FDML, JAZZ, LLL, PPO, STE, MAPP, WCG, CNC, PNK, CNA, LHCG, MANT, MDCA, ZOLL, CACI, VOLC, MKTG, ROK, MTX, IVC, ALGN, AAWW, NTRI, HCN, HHC, OSTK, EPR, CSGS, AWI, BBOX, EXPR, PH, HRC, VC, IPHS, GMT, ACOM, MASI, GET, ESE, JBT, HTZ, CYH, VQ, GTLS, CBL, LORL, RRD, CRL, HNT, HS, GGP, LAMR, RLOC, ZUMZ, AGP, OHI, IIVI, EXBD, THO, IOSP, WTW, OC, SXCI, DIN, SBRA, AUXL, STRI, CHMT, GTI, XTXI, ARO, SPW, AMED, ENSG, KRO, ATPG, MDR, CGX, CTB, KND, NTKS, HUN, EXH, SCOR, EXAM, KRA, WLT and DNDN
lol, blogger gobbling up my posts,
...oh well
@ben
In all fairness... I want to point out that I'm not sitting here trying to hinge the entire EWI thesis on one or two talking points that are or might be "fair game" for ridicule...
I've said to you many times (publicly & privately) that I think Prechter is "onto something" in general with his ideas...
---
Likewise - I can make a bunch of comments & leave myself exposed to ridicule if someone does not devote the proper time into understanding the depth of what I may propose...
I'll give you an example... You ridicule me all the time when I converse about "gut feeling"...
I can ASSURE you that my "gut feeling" isn't some whimsical thing that flitters in or out...
Instead, the "gut feeling" is the ACTIONABLE moment of committment whereby I finally pull the trigger on something I've studied very closely & is of interest...
No doubt... YOU do the same... Excuse me for 'guessing' here... But I'm guessing those subs you get from EWI (or elsewhere) don't have written on them BUY HERE or SELL HERE (actually - I'm sure 'some do' but that's not really the point)...
The "gut feeling" comes from YOU actually deciding to go with the recommendation or not and make a cash trade on it... I'm assuming that those SUBS you get, when they arrive in the mail (or electronically), aren't capable of automatically & on their own moving your trading balances around all by themselves...
Somebody has to make the final call (& that someone is YOU)... So when I refer to "gut feeling", I'm referring more specifically to, for example, my best researched guess, say, that Aaron Rogers, last year, would be the top FF point getter... I didn't just pull it out of thin air (& furthermore - it could have gone TOTALLY bust [one more concussion & he'd have been thru])...
Anecotally - Before the fantasy draft, I looked at the week 15 & week 16 matchups (& knew ahead of time, the Packers would be playing the NY Giants [in cold weather])... I was nervous about that & was preparing a back-up plan even then (draft day)...
In the end, I had to go with what I had & somehow, AR puts up 43 points... I'd have NEVER expected that... (Remember - I had Joe Webb on the bench)...
---
Anyway... I apologize for being a sarcastic dick (but that's just how I am)...
I don't really mind you calling me out (I thought the Lord of Boasts thing was a gem)... But also, I'm not going to stand here and have someone tell me my ideas are worthless...
If I want to believe in the Easter Bunny, I'm going to believe in the Easter Bunny... I'm pretty sure most of the people who read this blog are smart enough adults to decide for themselves whether or not the Easter Bunny exists...
That's just me "gut feeling" :-)
NEW THREAD UP
@ben
...oh & one more thing...
After a night of reflection, it occurs to me that I'd basically predicted that Obama would prove to be a "useless idiot"...
In fact - it seems that he has become a "USEFUL idiot"...
So the streak is OVER!!! CV (aka Lord of Boasts) is a mere mortal after all! :-)
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