BOVESPA (monthly info)WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new low 58767.64
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 58767.64
rev= 72606.58; mid= 65687.11
Brazil is having it own set of problems. It's closed the week below SMA(144) and trying to hold the SMA(233). It's also trying to hold it's 38.2% retrace (58350.70). The monthly 3LB is already trending down so this move is set to continue.
FT MIB (weekly info)new low 18433.68
trend=down
low= 18433.68
rev= 19154.36; mid= 18794.02
Italy doesn't seem to be in agreement with the EU rescue. That move higher (two weeks ago after the announcement) is about to get erased. It's still below all SMA's. Looking to test its 0.0% retrace in the near future. Expect an EFSF increase.
43 comments:
this could be a major head fake here, I'm not convinced we still won't see 1250 on this leg
The first five minutes were not that bullish. Euphoria continues to have shorter durations.
ISM Mfg Index fell to 50.9 from 55.3 versus a consensus of 54.3
And it's gone...
Oh my. I feel for those who went long at the open. If they didn't have trailing stops or a finger on the trigger they're writhing in pain.
The bottom fell out of EURCHF.
The daily candle for USDJPY went from a bull stampede to a bull massacre.
Ruh roh. Down move is picking up steam.
Not much green on the screen today. SPX slipped through the 200MA, not good. 6 straight down days, hmmm... turn-around Tuesday?
What a reversal.
Still feels like a short term buy around here....
sell the knee-jerk positive reactions....buy the knee-jerk negative reactions...
"sell the knee-jerk positive reactions....buy the knee-jerk negative reactions..."
and always avoid the circle jerk
QQQQ
Turnaround Tuesday is still in jeopardy since Congress has to vote for the debt ceiling deal tonight.
AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURCHF, USDJPY are saying down move isn't over. JNK and HYG are in disagreement. 30 min 3LB still trending down. Bulls have one hell of a fight ahead of them.
...and GS is still down.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-japan-coming-or-most-likely-not
The Bank Of Japan Is Coming!!! (Or, Most Likely, Not)
Headline flashing now openly warning that the BOJ is preparing to intervene:
* JAPAN PREPARES FOR CURRENCY INTERVENTION, NIKKEI SAYS
* COORDINATED INTERVENTION MAY FOLLOW JAPAN ACTION: NIKKEI
We call complete bullshit on this. Never do central banks preanounce when they intervene. Never. This is merely more posturing by the toothless and completely powerless BOJ which now has resorted to spreading rumors in order to get the USDJPY higher. Ref: Philipp Hildebrand who has been crouched in a fetal position for the past 6 months in a continuous PTSD daze.
Sure enough:
* NIKKEI REPORT ON INTERVENTION CITES NO SOURCES
Sorry. The knee jerk reaction will hold at most minutes.
BWAHAHAHA manna for the headline following algos.
apparently the Japanese ARE insane
only explanation for their tireless "intervention" which has changed exactly 0 of their trends in the last 20+ years
congrats to them for "staying the course" in spite of the overwhelming evidence the charted course is in fact the road to ruin
See you all on X-Day.....
Hussman and Rosenberg are thumping their chests in victory....can't help but notice this is eerily similar to last year at this exact same time
we got that deep retrace in August and after that it was lights out for bears
perhaps this will rhyme in some way....
ben22
As long as there is no mention of "additional monetary stimulus" at Jackson Hole the bears should be fine.
Ra,
I don't really see it that way, but I doubt that is news to anybody here.
I've come to grips with the fact that people will always prefer the exogenous cause model of financial prices over ANY other explanation
it is what it is.....
ben22
It's just the market reaction to said news. It's still BS but it is what it is.
but just to play along
what of the POMO's last week?
they didn't work because they weren't part of QE2?
It's not like they ever really stopped after all, it's not like policy isn't still as loose as Tara Reid.
Ra,
the problem with the whole
"the market reaction to the news"
is that we all pick the news that we "know for sure" the market is apparently reacting to
my observation is that this happens every single day when there are more than a few econ data points and the market has a big move in one direction or the other
if it's up it's certainly because of whatever good "news" got reported, if it's down it's on the "weak ISM" or some other thing like that
when there is no simple news headline to explain it, it is said to be "technical"
ben22
You left off "unexpected". Between Bloomberg & CNBC teleprompt readers all they do is give basic explanations. They use made up technical levels (which always are round numbers) and headlines to extrapolate trends.
Example: the Dow tested 12000 which according to the MSM is a major technical level. I laughed and hit the mute button.
Ra,
how could I forget the unexpected, lol. that seems to apply to any negative news
and yeah, they love the round numbers
I actually somewhat buy the notion that stocks that get to 90 are often a lock to get to 100 because of that.....
seems to happen a lot, I played that game with LULU recently before it split.
or this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/boehner-delays-press-conference-until-330pm-trouble-getting-majority
Sounds like Rs aren't convinced just yet. So the Ds won't do anything.
But to wait until 30 minutes are left in the trading day to make an announcement smells of another setup.
And as usual the algos performed their "10 handles off the lows" dance routine.
I love that 10 handle jig
where is everyone today?
pretty lazy day around here all things considered
not exciting enough?
ben22
They probably stayed away seeing futures screaming higher before the open. All they had to do was wait thirty minutes. Plus they are probably tired of the debt ceiling talks (I am).
"it rubs the lotion on its skin or else it gets the hose again."
SOTL
Ra,
I am too, but when it comes to "serious discussion about debts"
we had better get used to it
BTW I didn't want to jinx it but we're below the 3/09-7/10 trend line on the SPX (1290 today). I psy the market trying to get back over it before the close. If not then this will be the first day of a close below that line.
ben22
"Ra,
I am too, but when it comes to "serious discussion about kicking the can down the road"
we had better get used to it"
FIXED.
Boehner's delayed press conference is still delayed. Still can't get enough Rs to vote for the plan. LMAO.
I still haven't heard whether or not the Rs have 218 votes. "Talking loud and saying nothing."
was out doing chores, but, in the $$$ on all trades, FXA puts, SPXU, BAC calls, been a while since this has happened :) Might not trade to much this week, external forces are confusing my set-ups.
What goes up, must come down... This is one big ass balloon!
(sorry if that pic is offensive to anyone)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/treasury-issue-331-billion-debt-fiscal-q4-660-billion-gross-expects-debt-ceiling-be-raised
Treasury To Issue $331 Billion In Debt In Fiscal Q4, $660 Billion Gross, Expects Debt Ceiling To Be Raised
Without the Fed? We'll see.
OT: Tara Reid loose? Do tell.
Ra,
I can't confirm that, but a guy I know.....
Q's
Nice trading man.....boo yah!
Meredith Whitney on CNBC talking negative on Munis again.
Anyone still listen to her?
B22, got into SPXU calls to early if ya remember, avegaged up tho, so not in the big bucks arena on this trade... but ain't losing either. I tend to enter trades just a bit too early.
Where's the bottom on SPX?, my "18's guess" some time ago was 1244 area, but that was just after I called for 1375 top. I'm still feeling that number but not as strong as a couple months ago.
meredith who?
...and AT, thx for the technicals!
Howard Davidowitz just unleashed on economists who deal in fantasy. Stating that you can't extrapolate on the unknown but the known.
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