FT MIB (weekly info)new low 18433.68
trend=down
low= 18433.68
rev= 19154.36; mid= 18794.02
Italy's stock index is now trading below 2011 & 2010 prices. Actually it's now back to April 2009 levels. This week has taken the index value to a new weekly 3LB low and below the monthly 3LB reversal price. Of course it's below all SMA's and it's 0.0% retrace (17626.08).
IBEX (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 11068.10
rev= 8923.40; mid= 9995.75
Well Spain is not as bad as Italy…yet. But it did close below its 50.0% retrace (9777.27). It's also below all SMA's and the weekly 3LB mid. Their time is coming soon.
51 comments:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/01/greece-panic-change
Greece in panic as it faces change of Homeric proportions
For now, those days are well and truly over. In Athens' upmarket shopping district of Kolonaki, boutiques that used to have waiting lists for designer handbags have shut. One sign says the owners have relocated – to Rome. In one clothes shop, with racks of discounted Calvin Klein and DKNY, the manager, Sav, explains what's happened: "In this crisis, the middle classes have been hollowed out." That is just what happened in Buenos Aires during its crash last decade.
"In this crisis, the middle classes have been hollowed out." That is just what happened in Buenos Aires during its crash last decade...."
who has bets that that 'Treatment' is coming Stateside?
~~~
AmenRa,
nice work~ as per usual~
AAIP
“In March, 1915, the J.P. Morgan interests, the steel, shipbuilding, and powder interest, and their subsidiary organizations, got together 12 men high up in the newspaper world and employed them to select the most influential newspapers in the United States and sufficient number of them to control generally the policy of the daily press…They found it was only necessary to purchase the control of 25 of the greatest papers. An agreement was reached; the policy of the papers was bought, to be paid for by the month; an editor was furnished for each paper to properly supervise and edit information regarding the questions of preparedness, militarism, financial policies, and other things of national and international nature considered vital to the interests of the purchasers.”
- Oscar Callaway (1872-1947), Congressman (TX), Congressional Record of February 9, 1917, entered by Representative Oscar Callaway, p. 2,947.
________________________________________________________________________________________
“The fact is that there is a serious danger of this country becoming a Pluto-democracy; that is, a sham republic with the real government in the hands of a small clique of enormously wealthy men, who speak through their money, and whose influence, even today, radiates to every corner of the United States.”
- William McAdoo (1863-1941), US Senator (D-CA), Secretary of Treasury, President Wilson’s national campaign vice-chairman, Crowded Years, 1974.
________________________________________________________________________________________
“I believe that if the people of this nation fully understood what Congress has done to them over the last 49 years, they would move on Washington; they would not wait for an election….It adds up to a preconceived plan to destroy the economic and social independence of the United States!”
- George W. Malone (1890-1961), Senator (R-NV), speaking before Congress, 1957.
http://www.thenorthwestreport.com/federal-reserve-bank-quotes-the-central-bank-fraud/
ibid.
Hmmm, stories from 1915 that sound just like today while so many sit around and claim how it's only now that these things are truly a problem that its only NOW that America is "owned by Wall St."..... all born in the GW Bush years of course, the go-to period to use as the "reason" this is all happening, adopted heavily by the simple minded
don't look now, but the Fed, and all global central banks, are losing credibility by the day.
In 1999 the Fed was probably more respected than ever, Alan Greenspan was a national hero, amazing what 10 short years of futile attempts at controlling a massive heard does to one's reputation.
that's herd.....not heard
ya heard....
I hurd ya... the first time
Pretty decent treatise here...
http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/61480417
I thought this video was interesting, might be worth 10 minutes of your time, might not:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/roger-mcnamee-everything-is-changing/
related to tech, the title might seem misleading
It appears the dip buyers have been had...again.
The 38.2% retrace (1241.13) is history.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/
Drunken Ben Bernanke Tells Everyone At Neighborhood Bar How Screwed U.S. Economy Really Is
SEWARD, NE—Claiming he wasn't afraid to let everyone in attendance know about "the real mess we're in," Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke reportedly got drunk Tuesday and told everyone at Elwood's Corner Tavern about how absolutely fucked the U.S. economy actually is.
Bernanke, who sources confirmed was "totally sloshed," arrived at the drinking establishment at approximately 5:30 p.m., ensconced himself upon a bar stool, and consumed several bottles of Miller High Life and a half-dozen shots of whiskey while loudly proclaiming to any patron who would listen that the economic outlook was "pretty goddamned awful if you want the God's honest truth."
...there's more..
it's looking ugly...see you at 1220 I guess
RA, I was had, small position stopped out :(
Art Cashin talking about the H&S being violated.
I still think if you jump on the H&S here you're a nut, or you haven't been abused by them enough, or ever
that 3% rule can save you lots of money
but perhaps we are going down for real
that may be the first mention of the H&S on CNBC, but that pattern is being looked at all over the web, every major technical blog has had a chart of it since last week
here's the thing though, I had used on balance volume to get real loud about saying that inverse H&S was going to fail this spring
if that's a key, well on balance volume supports this H&S playing out
I also have to guess I'm either dumb or dont' get it because I still can't figure out how everything that is going on right now isn't highly likely to create DEflation rather than inflation
inflation aside, calls for hyperinflation continue apace....which to me is banana's....jmo.
B22, Cashin started talking about it... SPX 1240xx, it dipped to 1233.xx, back up to 1244ish
He also said it was a bunch of technical peeps drawing lines on cocktail napkins in a bar somewhere... LOL
oops, said it dipped to 1233xx, just glanced at the small chart, it was actually 1234.56 low on one of my charts.
I also have to guess I'm either dumb or dont' get it because I still can't figure out how everything that is going on right now isn't highly likely to create DEflation rather than inflation
the 'deflation' occurring is in PAPER assets...
That's the macro picture...
now I see an inverted H&S SPX 1min chart starting 10:20
maybe we end green today?
There are two economies at work at the same time...
The paper economy (reflected by equity markets - & levered & derivative-ized to the 9's)...
& the real world (reflected by the need for crucial items)...
Someday - I suppose the two will meet
If I had giant balls I'd have bought the dip today
but mine are about as big as BB's right now
BB's as in the ammo
Ben,
I still agree with you and so does the bond market. The Dutch got hot and bothered about tulips, too. If we are not in a depression, there is no reason for a 2.6 on the 10 years..give it time.
CV,
yeah yeah, that was repeated in the paper you linked today, that it's not "real" but of course...it is
also, my house isn't made of paper, neither are my tv's....and so on, but they've deflated...plenty, of course, they aren't soybeans are they!
and there's a reason "macro" is the worst performing strategy for hedge funds this year, it's because anyone trying to neatly define the macro picture with two bullet points is wrong
I did like that paper though, thanks for sharing, I had read a paper by them years ago, the shadow price of gold was $10k according to them back then
some parts of the paper though were pure shit, such as the reference to it being good advice to "not fight the Fed" because when they tighten stocks don't do well and when they are loose stocks do well
total nonsense is what that is, I hardly think I need to explain why, we are all living through it
also, I think they miss the mark when they conclude the end game, but who really cares, they start the paper by saying their forecast has an infinite timeline
ie....it's not for traders
Bruce,
I don't even know what to make of bonds either
The move on the long end has been massive.....it's something like a 3 standard deviation event I think...wow
here's one problem with the "rates go up = hyperinflation"
a not so large bp rise in yields will render the Fed insolvent in a heart beat, they are more leveraged than Lehman or Bear was right now, they would need a bailout themselves if that occured, a huge bailout....
I hardly find that hyperinflationary....but I admit I could be missing all the moving parts, just seems that would be far more deflationary type of event
re-test now is crucial for bulls, would love to see a higher low just above today's lows and then continuation of this bounce...with some good volume bars
this is WAR
"if that's a key, well on balance volume supports this H&S playing out..."
that's interesting. for me the key is how often H&S shows up on CNBC....
lol, well AT, they covered it today
I think you are generally right, all technical stuff on there is treated as nutty generally and they typically cover the arm chair type tecnician stuff
head and shoulers, the 50/200 cross
patterns that carry little weight anymore basically
I saw Lakshman on last week talking about economic cycles and Joe kernan said "oh come on that sounds like some kind of wave theory stuff...."
that's the attitude
@ben
essentially - your house IS made of paper (as is your TV set)... Well what you think of the VALUE of it anyway...
A house is not much different than a stock (other than you live in it)... At least that's how people have come to treat home ownership...
You paid a price for it (& hope that it was, in your mind, a fair deal)... It's about as subjective as someone who bought Apple stock at $20 vs. someone who bought it at $350... Perhaps the person who is holding the $350 stock is just as happy as the other person (if they cherish owning a share of Apple)... If they only care about the potential profit ON PAPER, they might not be as happy...
I saw a TV (driving own the road yesterday that was on someones driveway) that was being sold for $20... I took a 52" TV to the dump last week, and in the container there were about 50 more of them...
---
...on that link... I'll have to read again, but I don't recall THEM as saying "don't Fight the Fed", I remember it more as saying that that is the logic that momos have been led to parrot...
The 'bottom line' premise was more to the extent that the PERCEPTIONS as to the pyramid of power are ifferent with different classes of people...
- how a schoolchild sees it
- how washington insiders see it
- how wall st sees it
- how the Fed sees it
- how the 'few' individual (family) shareholders of the central banking cartels see things
When you understand that the REAL power, oftentimes, hinges on the whims of just a few things become clearer...
Witness this 'SUPER CONGRESS'... Bad, Bad, Bad omen that that seems to be getting pushed through without even anyone standing up to question it...
Outrage from Barry the Libertarian to commence in 5...4...3...2...
You like to say that the Fed controls nothing... That's true in a free market society... But 'free society' is changing as we speak... We ar moving swiftly towards dictatorial control... Obama is in the forefront (but as all dictators are) he is just the puppet of the string pullers...
History will prove to be the undoing of even the puppetteers, but the MACRO picture is that we seem to be in the phase of the cycle where POWER is consolidating into the hands of too few (not the other way around)...
As soon as I see pitchforks & nooses in Washington, I'll let you know and flip my position on the subject...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EU-says-euro-areas-systemic-rb-2748106524.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
EU says euro area's systemic capacity in doubt
...just give it time...
AT,
I'll need to check this myself, but I know you follow RSI pretty close as do I, one of the best secondary tools imo, here's a comment from a poster at Cobra's":
"S&P RSI just broke below 30 for the first time since March 2009. It has broken that level 6 times since Jan 2007.
After each occurrence, S&P finished up 1 month later - even during 2008."
the arm chair type tecnician stuff
head and shoulers, the 50/200 cross
---
That's the beauty... When you essentially have a "mouthpiece" like CNBC telling you how "ark crosses" are BAAAAAAd technical signs... They can get J6P to lighten up & duck & cover... Then the string gets pulled the other way...
So in essence... the 50/200 "is in fact" the mark... To FAde... (IOW - buy dark cross because all the arm chair techs tell you how ominous it is)...
Might as well toss in a Hindenburg or 2 for good measure...
CV,
what they said was a quote from Zweig, and in the very next line they state that it's still just good advice today as it was when he first uttered it in the mid 70's then directly afterward they give some justfication why it's a little different now (it's toward the end of the paper, I did read all of it)
there is absolutely no clear correlation between interest rates and stocks, not here, not globally and anyone claiming there is, they are simply wrong, it's the kind of thing pundits get away with saying because people are too lazy to look it up themselves
but facts are facts
the fed cut rates huge in the early 30's...we had a depression, stocks went down 90% anyway: FAIL
in the 90's Japan had the same experience: FAIL
more recent, Fed raises rates from 03-07, market up every single one of those years, supposedly though "bad for stocks": FAIL
Fed FOLLOWS bonds down to the zero bound in 08-09 and stocks crash anyway: FAIL
the examples just never end, and neither does the retarded comment that lower rates are "good for stocks"
I also don't buy this idea that "control" is more prevelant outside of "free society"
come on, if this were true we'd still have Nazi German and communist USSR, also FAILS
The fed has no control over their own balance sheet now, totally held to the markets whims due to the leverage they have taken upon themsleves....just wait and see.
As for the "my house really IS paper"....think I'll avoid that convo.
while we're on CNBS, this guy just on, didn't get his name cuz I was driving back from the corner 7-11 said something like, "you might want to buy now, or may be better to buy in a week or two, but I think the markets could really rally soon."
wtf, do these guys get paid to say shit like this? At least Art C. backs up his statements with substance.
Also...
It would upset me to think that you thought I was just parroting what was on that paper...
I CHOSE that paper, because when I read it, it touched on & articulated many of the same concepts that I have been saying for some time now...
Of course, since I'm a blithering fool, I just wanted to see what reactions anyone would have reading the same ideas from a group of respected fellows...
Big Bang Fed, creating something out of nothing, LOL, but, wall streeters have the somethings while the general public get the nothings.
B22, maybe you got your higher-low @ 12:24
essentially - your house IS made of paper (as is your TV set)... Well what you think of the VALUE of it anyway...
---
Must be fun to pick out parts of a statement (which alter the meaning of what's been said)... but you're right about the part that nobody really reads into things much...
Which is why BOTH of us are probably wasting our time...
--- but since I'm a glutton for punishment...
(vis-a-vis): Nazi's & Stalin... (which I presume you used to exemplify my reference to 'dictatorial' phenomenon)...
Here's what I said...
"History will prove to be the undoing of even the puppetteers, but the MACRO picture is that we seem to be in the phase of the cycle where POWER is consolidating into the hands of too few (not the other way around)...
It's pretty pretty much what I always say... History & the markets... YES... will have their way... Be careful about holding your breath in anticipation of that joyous day of reckoning...
There just so happens to be a big gauntlet to run first...
CV,
I don't think you are parroting that paper at all, don't want it to come across that way
just think they had some really good things to say, an interesting presentation with some solid charts, and also peppered with some nonsense
all the people I read have the same stuff, just the way it is
but I am generally bothered by people that try to tell me where things "should be"....better not to argue with the market I think, at least that has been a really good lesson I've learned the last two years.
also, I didn't buy my home as an investment nor do I think about the daily value, it's not liquid, why would I bother with that, nor am I interested in selling, I'll probably never sell the home I live in now.
I bought a cheap ass house that costs next to nothing to maintain and my RE taxes are dirt cheap, I love it.
this was a place for my wife and I to live
the word "home" has far deeper meaning to me that what the dollar price tag is....
Going for a drive, gonna drive to the long beach piers to see how busy they really are. Maybe I'll apply for a job while I'm at it.
Q's
we might, we'll see, worried a further bounce will get sold, now there is all kinds of resistance coming back up
We just so happen to be at the 'pre-Hitler', 'pre-Stalin' phase of the operation...
So I'm sure the 20+ million dead Russians & whatever the true tally was of Nazi oppression are cheered to hear your comforting words about how nobody ever has to worry about anyone controlling anything because the markets work to sort all that stuff out for you...
@ben
I'll acknowledge that some of the stuff in the paper was just fluff/crap...
But what doesn't contain that these days... It's all about the packaging, an many times, for something to be palatable, it has to contain fluff...
That bothers you... It doesn't bother me... I just ignore what is not relevant & just try to stay focused on the true essence (in its least complicated form)...
CV,
I think I'm done conversing with you on this blog outside of sports conversations, I literally just said all the papers I read do the same thing and yet there you are challenging me "but what doesn't contain that "these days"", and no, none of them "have to" contain fluff, I find it pathetic
that's like the line all these assholes in washington love..."it's just politics"
as for your comment at 1:05, what a joke....is that what I said? Hardly. Not even the same topic, not even close.
meanwhile you'll continue on with these "string puller" comments about who is really in control here,....very popular these days, the public finally has it all figured out thanks to Matt Taibbi and the in-ter-net, there are monetary secret society experts in every home in the country now, quickly able to determine what is relevant and what is not... reminding us all along the way that you called everything correctly up to this point, well, everything that the Fed didnt' screw up for you right? Surely you have to maintain your comments about the Fed at this stage or you won't be able to blame them for any inaccurate calls you might make so I do understand your obligation to continue on this way.
but I won't hold my breath waiting for you to acknowledge any of that
back to trading that make believe paper, surely I'm dreaming this all up in my mind right now
BinT @10:39
That article is hilarious.
Sheesh f'n 20 handle move off the lows. Luckily it didn't gap down at the open which reduces the chance of a reversal.
30 yr @ 3.873%. C'mon son who in their right mind would want to hold bonds at this yield for 30 years?
CV
Super Congress is a joke. If you voted against raising the debt ceiling you cannot be a member of said committee. Also it's going to be used to marginalize the Tea Partiers. More BS.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/wal-mart-visits-drop-2-6-as-added-products-fail-to-draw-buyers-memo-says.html
Wal-Mart Visits Drop as Products Fail to Draw
Visits to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)’s U.S. locations open at least a year dropped 2.6 percent from February through June, according to an internal memo, while rivals are attracting customers.
Those Wal-Mart stores had 82.8 million fewer visits through the first five months of the company’s fiscal year than a year earlier, says the memo, which was obtained by Bloomberg News. Wal-Mart doesn’t disclose those traffic numbers, and David Tovar, a spokesman, declined to comment on the memo.
Wal-Mart’s plan to recapture customers by returning thousands of products to U.S. store shelves has failed to reverse a decline in foot traffic at the world’s largest retailer, said Jeff Stinson, an analyst at Cleveland Research Co. That’s primarily because Wal-Mart’s core low-income customers are shopping less and going to other retailers more often, according to two recent shopper surveys.
You know it's f'd up out there when WMT is losing customers.
The market mavens are out in full force saying now is a good time to buy. The market has priced in the bad news. Yada, yada, yada. Blah, blah, blah.
Post a Comment