A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
"Feed me Seymourrrr!!!!"
Creditcane™: My version of the blitz attack. Payback is a ...
SPX
Bearish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). Tested and failed the 38.2% minor retrace (1122.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below daily, weekly & monthly 3LB mids.
DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Tested and held 50.0% minor retrace (74.67). Back above SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).
VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Way above all SMA's. Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (39.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Ran back into the "extreme fear" zone.
GOLD
Bullish long day (didn't confirm shooting star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its new 0.0% retrace (1782.50). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1666.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURCHF
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). THolding above its 0.0% retrace (1.0048). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.0787).
JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Holding its 0.0% retrace (36.35). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (37.18). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).
10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (21.73). Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 24.58).
WTI
Spinning top day again. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (80.17). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 91.93).
SILVER
Bullish long day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (37.94). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.70).
BKX
Bearish long day (didn't confirm bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (36.55). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (39.08). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 42.34).
HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7904).
USDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 79.01). Calling BoJ. Calling BoJ. The balls back in your court.
TLT
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Holding above its 0.0% retrace (105.79). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 105.36).
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
37 comments:
looks like one tooth on the right side of that bears mouth is cut in half
maybe it broke off when he bit John Paulsen in the ass.....
At the risk of sounding like a complete idiot, I'll say that
today's action might not be as bearish as it looks at first glance
but feel free to point and laugh if we are at 1,000 by Friday's close...or worse
I'll deserve it
ben22
Bullish:
TICK high > TICK low.
Bearish:
TRIN 5.65
PC Ratio 1.222
AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURCHF all down.
SPX not closing above daily 3LB mid.
Plus I'm not sure of the results of a bearish harami in a downtrend.
ES OTOH made a dark cloud cover while in a downtrend.
After everything that has happened, today was the highest TRIN close all year.
CME raises margins on gold futures. How long do you think it will matter? A week, a day, an hour, a minute, a second?
Ra,
I'm not really sure how to rank put/call ratio right now
check out this chart:
http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/de7b60e1-fc45-4a89-b047-d9e10a080023/2011-08-09_0654.png
I have no magical insight as to how we've just destroyed anything seen in 08 or flash crash period. Generally I'd call that bullish but I'm cautious about saying so.
Picked up a ton of stuff at Borders tonight....love these going out of biz sales
Gold has already shaken off the margin hike. CME may have to hike on a daily basis to stop the upward momentum.
@ben
Picked up a ton of stuff at Borders tonight....love these going out of biz sales
When you & your wife move in to larger 'digs'... call me up - I'll come by & help you move... I'm good at that (& about 2 1/2 other things which I'm sure there are but happen 2 slip my mind at the moment)...
But just remember... I'm carrying the boxes with PILLOWS in them (not the BOOKS)...
ben22
If the market decides to move bullish then they better hurry up before the July 2010 lows (1010.91) come into play. Because support after that is 870. On the weekly chart the SPX is below its 61.8% retrace and testing its 38.2% minor retrace. Percentage wise the last couple of weeks are as bad as Oct 2008.
This is a movie that CV will want to see when it comes out...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTEO2_gu4DI&feature=related
CV,
someday if I do get a bigger home I'd like to have a library in it
I've built quite a collection of books at this point and there are many more I'd like to get
I'm not an adopter of the Kindle.....still prefer the actual book
I picked up a book today that I just happened to glance at
1421 The Year China Discovered America
"On March 8, 1421, the largest fleet the world had ever seen set sail from China to "proceed all the way to the ends of the earth to collect tribute from the barbarians beyond the seas." When the fleet returned home in October 1423, the emperor had fallen, leaving China in political and economic chaos. The great ships were left to rot at their moorings and the records of their journeys were destroyed. Lost in the long, self-imposed isolation that followed was the knowledge that Chinese ships had reached America seventy years before Columbus and had circumnavigated the globe a century before Magellan. And they colonized America before the Europeans, transplanting the principal economic crops that have since fed and clothed the world."
looking forward to reading that one
also got The Pale King by David Foster Wallace, who I have heard was a great writer, though I've never read anything by him.
Ra,
If they can't do it quick I'm thinking we could see last summers lows in a couple days
I'm still trying to figure out what's going on with futures. DXY, ES, YM, NQ, YEN, GOLD and SILVER are higher. But AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURCHF, EURUSD and WTI are lower.
@Amen (9:44)
BETWEEN 1010.91 & 870 is 'Jackson Hole 2010' (or 1.0, as the case may be)...
Remember (or don't - I don't care anymore*)... Cv's 'low' call for 2010 was 840 (back on Andy T's famous 'old' blog at the end of 2009 - my 'top' call was within, I think 13 S&P points OFF the 2010 top on that [I'll admit] ridiculous 'prediction' mechanism timeframe)...
Oh well... Nobody will remember that (& well they shouldn't - because it's largely inconsequential)...
However... What CV remembers is being ridiculed for 'blaming' the FAILURE (in July 2010) to NOT break down @1010 & probe the '900's (which is a path, as you say NOW, that would likely lead to 870 & probably 840)...
didn't happen...
While I was 'pissed' that it didn't happen... CV moved on & learned...
WHAT... Pray tell did I learn??? I learned at that time that the famous Fed (you know - the one that doesn't have anything to do with anything) - ACTUALLY does (perhaps)... In moments... Have the capacity to 'deflect' market trajectory for... what history will prove to be inconsequential time periods (for no other reason that scared shitless wussy momos want their year end bonuses & will suck dick to make it happen)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CH0hQhnxv4
---
Ita was about a year ago NOW that that was all happening... Which is about the time that CV 'jettisoned' the paper markets (& started talking a bunch of crap about 'nickles bitchez' & 'silver bitchez', which, after a moonshot, became 'gold arbitrage bitchez', which now is 'neutral bitchez'...
So here we are again... Which means it's time to cue my friend PHIL...
---
* (bonus Phil)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLpfbcXTeo8&ob=av2n
If it is any consolation, I don't have any complaints, observations, or other bon mots to share today.
The only thing mildly amusing was to see a Goldman note on my terminal this morning that went something like, "QE3 is not our base case."
I laughed so hard I almost shit my pants.
Sorry, that should read, "QE3 is NOW our base case."
"At the risk of sounding like a complete idiot, I'll say that
today's action might not be as bearish as it looks at first glance"
I have to agree with you Ben. The pattern in the futures from the panic lows two nights ago is not particularly bearish in any way...it just sort of looks like we're beginning a corrective mover higher....
As you say though...call me an idiot if we're trading 1000 early next week.
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/and-its-gone-an-old-favorite/
really funny stuff right there
@Matthew,
btw, I got a family pack and also a regular
I couldn't taste any difference
but you know, there are a lot of chemicals in Delaware so there might be something wrong with me where everything tastes like chicken....
seriously, exactly the same to me....
"Do you like Phil Collins?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPL8TTjn_KY
AT,
I suppose one consolation is that our current view is in-between the consensus
there seems to be the new high and new low camp we aren't in either in looking for a bounce to potentially 1200- or 1250
we shall see
I'm down with Phil, I've got a greatest hits album
I might have belted out Against All Odds in the shower once, or more than once.
@Patrick Bateman
Just BLAST IT AT FULL VOLUME...
(accept no substitutes - this ain't mp3 bullshit - one requires some 'old school' amplifiers & sub woofers - Amen Ra will back me up on this)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA&feature=relmfu
So I'm not crazy. Thanks Ben.
PS: For those of you in the mid-west, how about that weather? If you are in Chicago, you wear a wind-breaker at night. That's a nice break from wasting away in the air conditioning every evening.
I'm heading for a big fishing trip Saturday through Tuesday. I hope this cool weather draws the fish out of their holes.
Ben:
Trey Parker and Matt Stone are our generation's Jonathon Swift...probably the sharpest/funniest satirists we'll ever see in our lifetime...
If someone offered me the chance to "hang out" with my choice of "someone famous" for a weekend....
Those guys would probably top the list....
@Matthew
"QE3 is not our base case."
I laughed so hard I almost shit my pants...
---
That was pretty funny to me when I saw it too...
http://www.moviegoods.com/Assets/product_images/1020/333032.1020.A.jpg
Takeaway??? Obvious...
"OH YES... THERE WILL BE BLOOD"
going to have to think about who I'd hang out with for a weekend
it's a tough one
those guys are awesome though, I laughed real hard at that clip
AT,
I suppose one consolation is that our current view is in-between the consensus
there seems to be the new high and new low camp we aren't in either in looking for a bounce to potentially 1200- or 1250
we shall see
1233-1279
or
1000
Regardless of what happens it shall be quite the roller coaster
@Andy T
I have to agree with you Ben. The pattern in the futures from the panic lows two nights ago is not particularly bearish in any way...it just sort of looks like we're beginning a corrective mover higher....
As you say though... call me an idiot if we're trading 1000 early next week.
OK... So let CV try to break down those waves...
HERE... Here's a good start...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CtjhWhw2I8
http://dealbreaker.com/2011/08/scottwood-capital-officially-becomes-family-office-after-majority-of-non-related-investors-redeem/
there has been a ton of supply coming into the market, something to keep in mind, on top of margin calls....
though I've heard that Rush Limbaugh has claimed the major beneficiary of this market decline has been George Soros, which is odd considering I'd heard he was 75% cash....
what is it that guys like Rush Limbaugh like to repeat...
trust but verify?
@ben
1421 The Year China Discovered America
Yeah, I've been hearing about that one for a long time...
Seems peeps keep trying to dig up artifacts in 'coves' from Oregon down to No Cal...
In the end though... C'MON MAN (Hoffer is gonna be the only one 'kins' CV on this)...
If you THINK 'written' history & civilization begins with cunieform & the Sumerians, you might as well have been born yesterday...
I kno... I was there...
"The battlefield is ahead.
PATTON: Don't argue.
I can smell a battlefield.
He was out here yesterday.
PATTON: It's over there. Turn right, damn it.
(arriving)
PATTON: It was here.
The battlefield was here.
The Carthaginians
defending the city. . .
were attacked by three
Roman legions.
They were brave, but they
couldn't hold. They were massacred.
Arab women. . .
stripped them of their tunics
and their swords and lances.
The soldiers lay naked in the sun. . .
... years ago.
I was here.
You don't believe me.
You know what the poet said:
"Through the travail of ages
It's the pomp and toils of war
Have I fought and strove and perished
Countless times upon the star
As if through a glass and darkly
The age-old strife I see
Where I fought in many guises
Many names
But always me. "
You know who the poet was?
Me.
It appears to be a double bottom at 1120 on the SPX. It better hold.
@amen
IMO...1108 needs more than an 'overnight' print...
But Ive been called 'redundant by people who have prettier feet than CV'...
@CV, if you can blast "In the Air Tonight" at high volume and not play the air drums, then you are a better man than I ;-)
- Whammer
@Ben -- re David Foster Wallace. I haven't read The Pale King, but I did read Infinite Jest. That book has a ton of interesting observations about our culture and how it is likely to evolve. He is (was I should say...) an incredible writer, but he is by no means easy to read. Not everyone's cup of tea to be sure.
He reminds me a little of Ken Kesey's writing in Sometimes a Great Notion.
-- Whammer
Ben,
Read about Wallace some time back and "Infinite Jest" is something that I plan to read. If Stephen King ranks it along side Catch 22 as 2 great American novels, then it must be something. Do let us know about The Pale King.
Prashant
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