A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Any questions?
Creditcane™: The roof. The roof. The roof is on fire. No really.
SPX
Bearish LONG day (ya think). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity.
DXY
Bullish long day (didn't confirm dark cloud cover). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Tested and held 50.0% minor retrace (74.67). Back above SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).
VIX
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Way above all SMA's. Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (39.25). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 25.25). Ran all the way to the "extreme fear" zone.
GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its new 0.0% retrace (1684.90). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1631.20). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURCHF
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (1.0829). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1156).
JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and destroyed its 0.0% retrace (38.31). New 0.0% retrace is 36.35. Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.59).
10YR YIELD
Bearish long day (didn't confirm bullish piercing). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (24.56). New 0.0% retrace is 23.28. Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 26.24).
WTI
Bearish long day (confirmed bullish thrusting). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (86.04). New 0.0% retrace is 80.17. New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 93.79).
SILVER
Spinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Passed test of the upper trend line. Holding its 50.0% retrace (37.94). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 41.76).
BKX
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (42.31). New 0.0% retrace is 36.55. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 44.44).
HYG/LQD
Spinning top day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (0.7670). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7928). Didn't change 0.0% because it's the strongest bearish candle. We'll see.
USDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (77.785). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.86). Calling BoJ. Calling BoJ. I see you intervened. How long do you think it will last? Answer: not long enough.
RBOB Gasoline
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (2.77). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.10).
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
35 comments:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CTL&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~31.82
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VZ&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~33.12
so much for the 200dma
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=T&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~27.70
I love the, now, oft-heard Refrain: "High-Quality/High-Yielding Dividend Stocks"
really? wtf are Those? in actuality?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MO&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~24.54
that thing is, Still, nearly 15x ...
~~~
something tells me that this Market, by the Time it's done, is going to chase-down the 'scared' Money, that thinks it's smart, and smoke it out of their Holes..
AAIP
DJ futures showing -54 but YM showing -80.
@LB (other thread)
Fuck a duck.... this is absolute madness.
Keep an eye on London, chaps. It's burning.
---
Well, let's at least to try & spin some comedy out of the whole mess... & imagine... that some MOMO... somewhere... (or at minimum - his shapely assistant Tawny)... is on the fone with some haywired client... trying to 'soothe' them with... the message that...
"It's a BUYING opportunity!!! After all we're getting THE OLYMPICS next year!!!"...
ror
@Amen Ra
The BEAR fotos are always great...
Funny thing... Last night, I couldn't sleep much... I ended up watching the movie "The Edge" (twice)... which I've also seen before a few times...
U gotta watch that movie (if you haven't seen it)... The 'expressions' on that bear's face...
That's fucking one pissed off bear...
Here... Here's that MF...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G31h5gbazwU
Wait and see what happens when/if the markets drop another 10%, it'll be Hysteria!!
cv, bet ya never thought these two would ever perform together, I know I didn't.
& of course... In CV's, almost RELIGIOUS dedication to serving the GIB Czar...
I present you with a 'first look' scene (never b4 seen on the internet), of the Jackson Hole Pow Wow - 2011...
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ALOI63X_CE&feature=related
CV
LMAO. That bear was like "Oh no you mf's ain't getting away from me."
@q's
Ha! That's EASY... def leppard (Germans are kinky dude)...
Certainly they just want TS to 'pour some sugar'...
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As always Q's... When one is willing to BREAK FREE from the box... Lot's of strange possibilities actually become quite pedestrian... :-)
@Amen
Sir Anthony Hopkins is a treasure...
CV
"I'm gonna KILL THE BEAR!"
Now if the FOMC members are seen entering the building wearing fur coats made from bear skin I'd get a little worried.
@Amen (8:05)
No doubt... Sans 'fur coats'... Well - (3:00) here might be a nice starting point... As always - there is a CHOICE...
North?... or South?...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOrgxYDN3a0&feature=related
I want to wear a Dow 10000 hat!
Of course, I'm nowhere near as short now as I was (at times) during the past 2 years... eff me...
Indeed, I'm just treading water.
Still love the bear's appearance, though. Anything to knock down these centrally-planned Potemkin markets, especially the GSE's on the Hudson...
@wunsa
"Centrally 'planned', or centrally 'planed'"???
There does happen to be a quiet discourse with regards to an 'n'...
---
\ˈplān\
transitive verb
1a: to make smooth or even : level b : to make smooth or even by use of a plane
2: to remove by or as if by planing —often used with away or off
---
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/planed
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Eh... useless conjecture... Nothing has anything to do with anything... The universe simply orders itself according to fibo extensions & golden ratios without regard...
Which, in turn, provides geometric & mathematical beauty for human eyes to observe...
don't bother taking the NEXT STEP... Whereby you'd be 'asking' yourself WHY it does this... Trust me... it's inconsequential to your present existence & MUCH FURTHER down the rabbit hole than you care to go (in THIS go around - at least)...
Wunsacon,
isn't it interesting that one would state that markets are not centrally planned when they go down but they are when they go up. At what degree of trend do you personally consider that true exactly? After all, the 10 year return on the market is what?
Futures looking weak as ES is below 1100.
G7 will probably try and talk the markets higher.
USDJPY still above 77 so no BOJ intervention.
for other elliott wave fan-boys
Elliott Wave and Daneric are out in force proclaiming the start of P3. Indeed, secondary technical indicators are on the insanity we've never really seen this shit before type level, very third wave like
however
lets be really really real, and start by looking at the supposed P2 top proposed in the 8/5 EWFF
they have the entire moved labeled as an A-B-C zig zag...with the C ending at the 1370 high -> any problems there....I think so
following that is the 1-2-3 motive wave to the downside, Daneric has gone so far as to propose that Minor 1 of P3 will end below Dow 6,000, I guess you might call that bold!
but really, the initial move marked wave 1 off the 1370 high
where do any of you see 5 waves there? On what time frame? that's a three. if it's not a five, then this isn't a three either.....
I dont' really know the count now, seems the e wave has already vastly exceeded the 261.8% of a.....but that hardly seems to leave p3 as the next best count, Neelys other count is clearly very strong.
and you know, they have to pick 1370 as the top to use that count
can't have a triangle top
@Amen
1097 (as I just looked at it)...
Harry Wanger's MAGIC NUMBER...
I'll toss out a kudos for ben mentioning 1040 at the end of the earlier thread...
IF...
ben will, at minimum, 'flippantly "pfft" the GIB czar for underlining that it WAS NOT out of the realm of craziness (when ben published that comment - instead of "pfft'ledly" questioning 'WHAT'S THE POINT'?)... &, in fact, instead, offered a realistic case for the possibility (as case which anyone could have read here on this blog last Saturday, OR, last december 2010, as the case may be)...
& that 1108 might become the next base of operations for "rooting down" into levels of "dantes inferno"...
oh & other things... but I don't want to become a bore (which I've already failed at)...
Whoa. Gold 1731 (+1.07%), Silver 38.81 (-1.43%), WTI 77.06 (-5.25%).
...1050
see... here's how it OFFICIALLY goes...
CV says something... Ummmm... like HERE...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/12/morning-audibles-122710.html?showComment=1293479022580#c8674850817953266389
whereby - a bunch of "pffft's" arrive (which audibilize the redundancy of CV's comments)...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/12/morning-audibles-122810.html?showComment=1293550363974#c7524112362350759194
Then one fine day... It becomes reality... & when it does... the hatred turns from "pffts" to "Lord of Boasts"...
Mostly, probably, because the original observation (which was only presented as a friend SHARING an observation AS A friend), didn't have the same structural observational credos as the "pfft" accusers...
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Footnote:
LOB makes no special BOASTS as to calling 1108...
I just took the time to "observe the candle - & point it out" [8 months ago - as the case may be]...
"So what's your point, CV?" (earlier thread)
---
Yeah... exactly... "What's my point?"...
BTW
Nobody stood up to clain the "golden buddha" prize (pro-offered in the previous thread to the person who made a comment at 8:08 - which came & went between 2 cv comments)...
Too bad - it's a nice statue... I'm sure it must have some 'intrinsic' value...
BWAAAAAHHHAAAA! :-)
That was an absolute route in risk assets today. Everyone is waiting for QE3, especially now that Uncle Sam's hands are tied. The Fed gets another opportunity to prove its impotence.
I was musing with some folks at work today about the sorry state of our securities markets in 2011. Whenever the Street wants a bailout, they just throw a temper tantrum (sell program) and watch the politicians scramble to redistribute wealth in their direction.
This has become a deterministic phenomenon; and it makes perfect economic sense, given that the economic prospects, sans government handouts, haven't justified pricing in risk assets for a long time. Whenever official support for risk assets begins to wane, prices converge on equilibrium until the next official policy response redistributes more wealth to the Street.
BTW, I didn't mean to imply conspiracy/collusive selling by asset managers (above) in order to affect policy response. I only meant to say that managers all reach the same conclusion relatively contemporaneously. Think of it more like (in unison), "Hey, government support is not growing as quickly as we priced in our assets. Let's lighten risk weights." And then the government response is to [jawbone first and then] make a policy response that reflects pre-selling expectations.
Update:
DXY 74.82 +0.03%
Gold 1741 +1.62%
WTI 76.40 -6.04%
YM 10510 -2.01%
ES 1090 -1.93%
USDJPY 77.07 -2.18% (near BOJ intervention zone)
Matthew
What happens if the government tells them to go sit in the corner?
@Matthew
I didn't mean to imply conspiracy/collusive selling by asset managers (above) in order to affect policy response. I only meant to say that managers all reach the same conclusion relatively contemporaneously.
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Fear not... You don't risk ridicule by saying that... Only the GIB czar risks ridicule for even 'implying' something like that...
GIB Czar is the buffer of all slings & arrows...
GIB Czar is the "new" Geroge Bush...
"Hey, government support is not growing as quickly as we priced in our assets. Let's lighten risk weights." And then the government response is to [jawbone first and then] make a policy response that reflects pre-selling expectations...
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Translation: "Print us some more money to play in the casino with so we can AT LEAST collect our bonuses... Hopefully - if we don't blow it all on coke & hookers too quickly, we'll be able to stuff a few gold bricks in a safe place until after the dust settles...
If you can throw a nice bone here, we'll be sure to add to your re-election warchest (& even give you sloppy 2nds on the hookers)...
"What happens if the government tells them to go sit in the corner?"
The government will effectively do that this time. The fight over the last budget bill precludes any kind of "Son of Stimulus" from the Federal government.
But fear not--we have a genious Ph. D. economist who believes that wealth creates a healthy economy, rather than a healthy economy creates wealth. He will have another go at the wealth effect, which is economist speak for, "If we gun the financial assets that rich people own, they will magnonymously shower the lower class heathen with jobs and favor."
Monseigneur Bernanke, fire up the printing press and watch it fail. Again. Keep those interest rates to the floor, and watch the preponderance of investments lean toward marginal ROI over de minimis funding. Ensure a lost decade for us (or two or three).
Wow. wow. wow.
Got a lot of texts tonight...
From people with a lot of money.
They're all acting like the world is ending....
Pfft.
I told them all in the last year that we would see 800 handle again...eventually...
The shorter term picture always looked "ok" but eventually we'd be heading back to some "end of world" type of levels....
The "ultra big" Head and shoulder with a neckline around 1040 should be considered now....
We'll get a bounce...for sure....but man o' man...
We need to be short/OUT of this market on any decent bounce.
I tried to buy this market twice today...I got skinned a little bit....
lesson learned.....
It's over.
Also,
We should all know by now that the Bernank is a technician.
He doesn't buy till the market hits a nice level and shows some 'bounce of its own.' Then, he comes in and accelerates the action with his words and/or deeds.
I don't believe in Gnomes from Zurich, but I do believe the Fed rolls the SP500 dice sometimes...at least on the margins.....
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