AUDJPY (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 0.8153
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.8153
rev= 0.8852; mid= 0.8503
The AUDJPY finally moved down enough to have a weekly 3LB reversal. This week is trading as confirmation of that reversal. It's now below the SMA(55) and SMA(89). It has also closed below the 38.2% retrace and is holding below the 50.0% retrace.
XRT (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 48.69
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 48.69
rev= 55.91; mid= 52.30
XRT had a "everything must go" type of week last week. This week is confirming the reversal. it's now below the SMA(55) and testing the SMA(89). It's also below its monthly 3LB reversal price.Expect advertising to pick up soon.
Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=down
low= 39.960
rev= 43.841; mid= 41.901
The gold/silver ratio is breaking out of its range to the upside. Gold is back to outperforming silver. It's back above the SMA(21) and is testing the monthly 3LB reversal price. It's also holding the 61.8% minor retrace. If that holds then resistance is the 38.2% retrace (52.708).
Every station the bulls turn to is playing the same song...
10 Year Auction?
33 comments:
@AR
Thanks for the GSR chart...
It's real hard to say right now (as it looks like there's more to retrace if it wants)...
I think basically what my opinion is that the 'knee jerk' meat is off that bone for now, so if you went along with the 'arbitrage Ag into Au' idea back when Ag was in its late stage rocket boost to $50...
Might be time to just hang neutral on that for awhile & wait to see which way it goes...
For PHYSICAL owners, it's kind of tough, because at this stage in the game, the 'feel' is that most want Au right now (but are feeling it's expensive)... Most would LOVE to dump some Ag an replace it with some gold coins but you just KNOW that you're probably top ticking (for now)...
Most Ag holders might have to just suck it up for awhile longer, & just let the ratio climb higher (which may come at the price of seeing their Ag go to $30 or $26 if they both come off)...
I'm JTOL here, because I haven't a clue... All I'm glad about is that holding the bullion is a lot better than trading the paper...
---
I'll be out most of today & tomorrow...
I generally don't bet PRESEASON football games, but I'll take the RAVENS +3 against the Eagles (tomorrow night)...
I just hope nobody tears an achilles...
@QOTd
Maybe the US needs to recall Al Michaels for its soccer match against Mexico...
Bull trap complete. Hopium evaporated. Long covering to commence in 5..4..3..2..1..
Long covering to commence in:
8...5...3...2...
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There - fixed it!
CV
Touche'
So what do the pundits do now after yesterdays "bottom is in" calls?
I'm thinking of calling yesterdays gains "The Keyzers" in reference to Keyzer Soze because "just like that...poof they're gone."
The bond market bubbas are the ones to follow. I cannot think of a sane reason anyone would be buying the 10 year at a level around 2.15 unless the outlook is for years of weakness. That is the way I am investing also...
From TWSWB yesterday:
“With the US downgrade now out of the way, we think market attention will swing back to other DM countries that are facing downward pressure on ratings too. Here is a summary of our most recent ratings outlooks for DM.
Our model has the US as a weak AAA/Aaa/AAA credit, and we did not think that the downgrade was entirely justified on fundamental grounds. Our model gives the US score a small boost due to the dollar’s standing as the world’s reserve currency. Taking that out drops the US down to AA+/Aa1/AA+, but at this juncture, we see no end to the dollar’s premiere status. However, now that the move has been made, it brings into question other AAA ratings.
Lastly, we note that the supply of true AAA credits is dwindling. In Europe, there is still Germany, but we believe that as it takes on more and more countries to backstop, Germany’s debt ratios and fundamentals will deteriorate too. Now, it is a solid AAA credit, but the future is not so bright. The dollar bloc, the Scandinavian countries, and Switzerland are left as very solid AAA countries, along with the Netherlands and Luxembourg. But taken together, these countries are a very small slice of global GDP and so investors have few options with regards to AAA safe havens.”
Gold breaks through $1800
ben22
Obviously it didn't open higher...
""So what do the pundits do now after yesterdays "bottom is in" calls?""
CNBS running out of peeps to bus in for the "buy-buy-buy call"
1800 kiss
lets see if my buy natty below $4 works, if only for a while.
sheesh, don't wanna go long SPX, then don't wanna go short SPX... just gonna go buy some donuts, that's a win-win trade :)
Ra,
no it didn't but this doesn't yet negate the way harami is discussed in Nison's candlestick book so you have a different approach to it
I won't draw any conclusions until the close but I havent' done anything today, probably won't by 4 either.
ben22
"probably won't by 4 either."
Believe me. I know the feeling.
ben22
SPX is now forming a bearish harami...
How long ago did C do the reverse split?
n/m it was 3/21/11. How's that working out for you C?
My bad it was announced on 3/21/11 but happened on 5/9/11.
C -34.8% since the reverse split.
10 Yr Auction
B2C 3.22
Primary 32.98%
Direct 31.66%
Indirect 35.36%
HY 2.14%
I'm wondering if the Indirect is higher because they're running from the EU.
cool, go back to work 8/15, govt released funds to continue old and new projects. And as far as I can see, those FAA emps that were furloughed are back to work.
BAC countrywide unit may file chapter 11
Ra,
I'm watching a triangle now on the daily
I seem to be the only one looking at it
it targets 1175 or so, we could be green by the close if it all plays out
but I'm not trading at all today and that seems a tall order right at the moment
I can tell you from internally at BAC that the countrywide unit
is royally fucked
there's probably a reason that four people from the mtg department there emailed me yesterday telling me they'd be leaving soon
maybe I'll walk over to BlackRock today and see if they've got any more tips for me while I'm at it
Oh no, prechter's going to be on CNBC.
B22, while you're over there, see who's buying gold... hehe
cuz gold price is scaring me today.
1 year ago gold 1200, now 1800, that's like up 50%, rounding the numbers of course.
gold/crude rising so may see a pullback soon.
"Oh no, prechter's going to be on CNBC"
doesn't always work out badly, 4/8/2010:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1463714869
give us a target Bob! My pony-tail is about to slap your ass if not!
Clearly the bigger call was wrong, but those guys all crapped their pants about three weeks later
oh, and also, what was his message for "normal investors"?
we are lower now than we were in that video, btw.
even if you hate Prechter
watch that video, it's a classic
and surely as that asshat claims at the very end
"cash will get devoured by inflation"
yup....any day now....
I'm back to planning my outings around visits to the ATM again.
Jennifer
Might want to hurry before all the ATMs start showing "Temporarily Out of Service" on their screens.
That shooting star on gold was shot down. Must have used surface to air fiats.
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