FTSE MIB (weekly info)
new low 16015.87
trend=down
low= 16015.87
rev= 19049.88; mid= 17532.88
The FTSE MIB continues to approach its low from March 2009. It closed below its 38.2% minor retrace (17261.99). It's below all SMA's. It's trending down on the weekly 3LB and is also trading below the monthly 3LB reversal price. Ed รจ andato.
VIX (monthly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 14.75
rev= 34.54; mid= 24.65
These last two months for the VIX are eerily similar to 9/08-10/08. It's already higher all of 2010. It's above all SMA's. It still hasn't taken out 2008 highs…yet. But the fear is real and another EU disruption or CRA downgrade will make 2008 seem like a cakewalk.
90 Day UST (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
high= 0.010
rev= 0.070; mid= 0.040
Doesn't appear the market is forcing the Fed to raise rates just yet. It's trading below its weekly 3LB mid and trending down on the weekly 3LB.
78 comments:
Damn, when I went to bed last night futures were down 28 handles
AT,
agree with you, Bernanke has to be a technician
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.U11.E
low ~75+
~now 81+
these 'Markets' seem to be Turning..at least, for the 'near term' ..
AAIP
ben22
After two days of -500 & -600 moves a bounce is expected. Selling into strength may go into overdrive.
The market may also be higher because of the hope that the Fed will "stimulate" some more.
Ra,
it's very hard to say
people have been expecting a bounce since 1250 as well, but that didn't matter
it's easy to say we should expect a bounce after yesterday but based on what exactly, I don't think the fact that we are down a lot is enough to say there must be a bounce...
most indicators are at levels never ever seen before
look at the NYSE Declining/Advancing ratio of 47:1 as an example
there is no precedent for that, we never even came close in 2008
and look at the VIX, yeah, it's half of what it was in 2008, we are what though....two or three weeks into the decline? The probability of a move we just saw happening is very remote
we'd perhaps know generally how much strength will be sold if we could see updated margin charts, if you look at all event driven names they have been absolutely killed in all of this so no doubt hedge funds have already had to make big moves so you could just as easily argue right now selling of blue chips has been way overdone as a result of those margin calls
basically, nobody has an edge in an environment like this
ben22
As much as I'd hate to say it but the recent market decline might be trying to force the Feds hand.
It could also be the realization that those green shoots were poison ivy.
Ra,
Foced by whom? I saw that comment yesterday
you think a bunch of hedge funds thought
hmmm, I'll go through a margin call so that the government provides more stimulus
I doubt it, one bad month at a hedge fund can destroy it....and what can the Fed do at this point anyway besides edge one step closer to blowing themselves up.
ben22
The market as a whole wanted more from the Fed once QE2 ended. Why I don't know. Some of the financial institutions could put their excess reserves to work but prefer to collect the interest. It's not the hedge funds but the banks. Every new revelation of wrongdoing cuts into their profit.
A move back to 1300 cannot be ignored either. Neely has all his stops above 1300. Everyone and their dog are going to be looking to re-short the fibo's off 1370/1356/1340 (depending on one's count or starting point) and round numbers on the way back up. Everyone covering their shorts could certainly send the market on an upward trajectory much like the downward one if certain levels are breached.
Denninger has a good post from overnight:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=191778
Whoa. Didn't realize gold made it to 1782 in the overnight session.
Further to the above, did anyone see the high in the overnight ES? 1147.
It's appearing that the head fake didn't fool anyone.
Ra,
the fact that we've been on the zero bound for about two years now and the banks supposedly need QE to make money should tell you that QE will never ever make a material difference
So why is silver not moving in tandem with gold? Even WTI is higher (for now).
ben22
True. I figure they want to pad their excess reserves and use the interest to offset losses. This way they don't have to raise capital in this environment.
Ra,
but of course, they are getting more capital via deposits
of course, nobody wants any credit so it won't be lent out
you'd think with all the inflation coming people would be gobbling up cheap credit to buy homes but it would appear they have decided on gold instead
McB,
"Homes", by and large, may be Cheap, but they are not Inexpensive..
AAIP
the recent market decline might be trying to force the Feds hand.
There you go. A true cynic, and I agree. Banks are f*cked without more easing so they started selling. In the process they flushed out some weak hands and completely toasted some commodity HFs which triggered the liquidation behavior we are now so familiar with.
Now they will snap up the divvys that the little guys sold in a panic so they could hide in Treasuries and munis.
Munis are next on the chopping block.
Stay thirsty, my friends. And nimble.
""Homes", by and large, may be Cheap, but they are not Inexpensive"
if we were truly about to get huge inflation you dont' need an inexpensive home for what I said to make sense
CNBS poll
Which will the Dow hit first?
10,000 - 61%
12,000 - 39%
the gold daily candle is one for the ages...
you think a bunch of hedge funds thought
hmmm, I'll go through a margin call so that the government provides more stimulus
I doubt it, one bad month at a hedge fund can destroy it
---
Now that comment makes quite a lot of sense...
you'd think with all the inflation coming people would be gobbling up cheap credit to buy homes but it would appear they have decided on gold instead
---
I'll still stick to my bottom line premise that most people behave & act AS IF a home were a "paper asset" (as if it were a 401k portfolio or something of the like)...
Home prices went into a 'bubble' (like stocks), & that's how that mentality got a foothold...
I don't care what a home 'technically' is... people PERCEIVE IT & TREAT IT like a paper asset (in terms of their new worth - or lack thereof)...
So... since "paper" is in a bubble (stocks, bonds, real estate), PAPER is in deflation...
Hard goods (the inverse of paper) are "inflationary" (in paper terms) according to & by rank of their absolute need & other basic laws of supply & demand whereby the SUPPLY CHAIN of such goods is not being covertly manipulated
either by
- strikes
- wars
- hoarding
- force majeurs
- weather
- public relations misinformation
- speculative excess
maybe gold is starting a blow-off top to no-mans land
maybe that gap was a runaway gap
I'll just keep shoveling into the gold money account for now
Hong Kong is apparently still AAA
@Q's
awesome on the poll man
those are some interesting response %'s no?
probably a total coincidence one of them is Phi.
So why is silver not moving in tandem with gold? Even WTI is higher (for now)...
---
FWIW - I wouldn't 'overthink' it...
Not to 'annoy' anyone in particular here... But in yesterdays comments, I made one that basically said I'd go out on a limb & say that when the S&P 'covered' the chart gap that was at 1108, it might represent a near term TOP for gold (within WHATEVER fudge factor someone would reasonably allow)...
I'm not trying to top tick, just paint parameters...
Anyway... OVERNIGHT - the S&P breached 1108 & you've seen more or less of a "shooting star" type candle on Au in the same timeframe...
Amen - I was going to ask you to put up another Au/Ag 'ratio' chart thin morning, but I had to blow out early... I'd still like to see that...
As it pertains to your question... My gut tells me that the "arbitrage out of silver & into gold" call that I made back in May - well - I expected the window on that to go 12-18 months... But I'm pretty sure now that the biggest meat off that bone has now been taken...
FWIW - CV has shifted now to NEUTRAL on the Au/Ag arbitrage theme (for the time being)... But I'd still like to see that RATIO chart to confirm...
I also made a Pt/Au arbitrage call...
Ask yourself how Pt (which is more rare than Au in the earths crust) can be cheaper than Au right now...
Cash bitchez!
ben22
39% is still close to 38.2%. Probably a rounding error.
@ben
ben... you ought to like this one (I'm not being 'snarky' I'm being serious)...
Actually I say this because I haven't looked at it yet, but something in my faint memory was triggered yesterday 8/8...
Au 'peaked' in '08 around the time of the China Olympics... The peak was somewhere north of $1000...
So now... If it's peaking at WHAT? $1,700 something...
Have you done a 1.618 extension of:
- 0/ or fuck it... $35 (isn't that what the government says it's worth - ror)
- a thousand something
- 17 & change
pretty damn close bitchez...
you'd think with all the inflation coming people would be gobbling up cheap credit to buy homes but it would appear they have decided on gold instead
---
part 2 of that 'seeming' head scratcher is... despite record low 'borrowing' rates, most need a lily assed white credit score & a hefty 25% downpayment to even move in (& get the pleasure of paying property tax rates that suck balls - so that the democratic governors can, you know, improve schools & help the poor)...
Ah the 'good ol days'!
SPX volume, 30min, 50MA, @10:30
27th - 11.1M
28th - 11.9M
29th - 14.0M
1st - 17.2M
2nd - 19.1M
3rd - 21.1M
4th - 22.8M
5th - 28.8M
8th - 35.4M
9th - 40.6M
late to the party people are still selling
also, just in case my comment was misread
i stated that credit was cheap, not homes, which are most certainly still overvalued relative to incomes
point was basically that the inflation crowd has chosen gold over anything else, that's all
stating the obvious
B22 re: poll
Yeh when I saw those numbers what else could you see? lol, not sure how many they poll'd but if 69% say 10K then maybe we're ready for a bounce.
volume still picking up, prolly late to the party selling, no?
SPX volume, 30min, 50MA, @10:30
27th - 11.1M
28th - 11.9M
29th - 14.0M
1st - 17.2M
2nd - 19.1M
3rd - 21.1M
4th - 22.8M
5th - 28.8M
8th - 35.4M
9th - 40.6M
blogger pissing me offf... LOL
who ever knows what the volume is until after the fact
could just as well be more buyers now
when was the last time you saw a 70 point reversal that didn't get some bulls excited?
oh wait...yeah, last week
lol!
also, more volume pick up here shows us breaking out of two potential patterns from the lows
doesn't matter what they are, just that it would indicate further upside still
You know...
One of the targets I didn't give in my last update was the 261.8% of a-wave....
So far, that's where the market has bottomed....
cv, give me a min, I'll make a gold/silver chart starting when gold was below $1k, I think when Prez0 took over, we'll see how bubblelicious gold it is... switching trading cap for data cap...
gold & silver chart percent change from Jan 09. Took a while to get monthly high prices from Kitco.
AT,
didn't it extend way past that last night though?
might need to double check my math
Ben,
It did. But if the week closes around 1178, on a line graph, it fits perfectly. Obviously this week will be very interesting come Friday.
Mchappy
yeah, I suppose using the line, the right way, it works
just not sure if I should be discounting that action last night or not
your idea on the flat might be bang on
no change in interest rates... there ya go
snorkel time?
FOMC: no more stimulus bitchez!!!
FOMC: THREE dissenters (that's a first)
QQQQ
The 1-min SPX chart shows almost an instant Knievel pattern.
AR, yeh LOL, 1st reaction... just happened to hear what they said, was walking from another room and on CNBS it sounded like someone on a CB radio saying "no change in interest rates, blah, blah, blah, economy slowing"...
markets gonna be volatile, good-bad what?, digest the info
AR, you see gold with that news, the way this is going, something really, really bad happens and it's gonna go to thru the roof.
Market got bad news, not really going down....
Selling exhaustion?
LB...
well bulls saved 1100...
so far
Leftback
Don't think so. Avoiding 1096.47 (20% down from 2011 high) is the plan. Must not allow headlines to indicate we've entered a bear market.
AR, ya mean a bear within a bear
I've been working on a 100 yr chart with cycles, not finished yet but what it shows we prolly wont enter a really bullish phase until 2017 or so.
Ra,
dont you think what matters more is whether or not it feels like a bear market? The psychology.
I mean, it's really not a big difference between down 18, 19, or 20%
Is down 19.99% not a bear market? I bet anyone that is levered long or heavily net long would tell you otherwise, their indivual stocks might already be down 25-30% by then.
Q's
pretty much all cycle work I've seen doesn't show bounce area until 2016 at the earliest
long long term cycles, or cycles built around the K-wave theory.
Mark Faber on Bloomberg...
About the Fed... they should all collectively resign.
Last week called SPX gets to 1100 by Oct, now since it happened so fast, we might bounce a little from here but there is definitely something wrong with the markets, so light'n up on stocks with every increase.
He said gold is still a buy... someone challenged him and he said you buy your girl a copper ring and I'll buy mine a gold one, let's see who does better... LOL
He also said most peeps don't own much gold, yet, even most people at firms like GS don't own gold and that baffles him.
@ben22
does "k-wave" theory have any application with regards to the Nikkei???
I seriously don't know... just asking...
Partially in a way to not talk about grandma's snow cones...
Some things need no comment...
Palin on downgrade: I knew this would happen
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/palin-downgrade-knew-happen-151730478.html
Obama says he inherited economic problems
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-says-inherited-economic-problems-001543865.html
ben22
"dont you think what matters more is whether or not it feels like a bear market? The psychology.
I mean, it's really not a big difference between down 18, 19, or 20%"
I don't think it's a big difference but for the public to see "Dow 20% Below 2011 Highs - Welcome Back to the Bear Market" would crush what little consumer confidence is left.
"What's absolutely true, even before these last couple days in the stock market, is that recovery wasn't happening fast enough,"... "When you have problems in Europe and in Spain and in Italy and in Greece, those problems wash over into our shores,"
"would crush what little consumer confidence is left"
Ra, if that plays out, you may want to consider buying with both hands, at least for a short term rally....one of my favorite little stats:
The all-time high for consumer confidence occurred in October 1968, with a reading of 142.3. The Dow topped two months later and lost 36% over the next 18 months. Conversely, in February of 2009, consumer confidence hit an all-time low — and the DJIA bottomed days later. In April of 2009, after the stock market rally had already started, the Conference Board consumer confidence Index leaped 45% to 39.2, the second biggest jump on record. The biggest-ever increase came in April 1974, when three-quarters of the damage from the 1972-1974 bear market was still to come.
CV,
due to the extremely long time of each K-wave it becomes a very subjective thing to work off of
but my understanding is that it can be applied to nearly anything, though most people seem to discuss it in the context of commodities
Japan is a tough nut really to apply cycle analysis too, you'd have to go back to at least the 1600's and compile all the data on the rice markets through now at minimum to get started
one thing about the US that helps is our history as a country is very short relative to the rest of the world
Wow. wow. wow.
Wow 40 handles down and 70 handles up in 1h 45m. Is that a SPX record?
That daily candle for gold got worked like an accordion.
Now that's what I'd call a bullish harami (SPX).
...still needs confirmation though.
it's hard to ignore what happened overnight, but to be honest...when you're seeing 70pt moves in two hours in the middle of the night...not sure how much weight it should get....
The S&P 500 bottomed at the 78.6% of the y-wave and the proposed e-wave was 261.8% of a-wave.
1226 would be z= 38.2% of y (or call it c vs. e relationship if you're Neely).
This bounce is hard and strong enough to suggest a completed wave...
Let's just hope we see a 1200 handle again....
LOL AR, when you have time, look at GLD on a heiken-ashi non-log yearly chart. Each candle progressively gets larger.
AT,
just for purpose of symmetry
I think we will see a 12 handle in the Z wave
the last two days have been Gwen Stefani bananas
then, the new BIG SHORT
I got my 1108 in the afterhours last night...
I'll call that a "win"...
Seeing 1300 would certainly make it entertaining to see Dan or Hochberg's counts for an impulsive pattern. Also the reminders that wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of wave 1 would be interesting.
Although it would only be a .786 retrace of pretty much any move in the S&P whether you want to go cash or ES.
For those already counting an impulse down, the .786 would certainly keep their counts 'alive' especially considering how dramatic a fall this was.
Not like a "Stevie Williams" win though...
You know... Like the kind where you can have 145 of them without ever having to fade an 8 degree driver off the cart path on a 'hilly' lie... over water...
...or caressing a 4 foot downhiller (left to right) on a 12 stimped green...
You know... WINS like that...
REITS, bitchez.
Eat me.
Only goes to FIGURE that this effin twat waffle chooses a Minnesota Twins game as her first MLB appearance...
Talk show host Ellen DeGeneres made some personal history at Monday's Red Sox-Twins game and achieved a rite of passage during the broadcast
http://sports.yahoo.com/sportsminute
---
OK... first... I GUARANTEE you all that she doesn't know who the hell Bert (BE HOME) Blyleven is...
---
More classic is the fact that it was a Twins - Red Sox affair... If you don't know what that means, I'm not going to bother to bring it up now...
Fucking idiasses
I used to play for the Bosox...
But then I played for the 'dodgers'...
Now I'm retired cause I can't hit the ball anymore...
for cv -
moves like jagger
oops - the youtube url
moves like jagger
from K Denninger..
....The bond market is telling you that there will be no material economic growth for the next two years and that a deflationary depression is the economic path that will be followed.
This is effectively what happened in Japan, although the worst of the economic impacts have been muted as they had tremendous internal surpluses to expend (those, incidentally, are now pretty-much "used up" - two decades later.) We do not have those internal surpluses - to the contrary.
The stock market has been doing plenty of "up and down" and it will probably rally for a bit yet, as stock traders tend to be the short bus riders. But make no mistake - the bond market's response to the FOMC announcement is entirely rational and consistent with only one outcome - a sustained economic slowdown coupled with deflation, not inflation.
What will cause this? The debt bubble collapsing. Maybe kicked off by Congress failing to reach agreement or doing a "nothing" with the so-called "commission." Maybe kicked off by collapsing net interest spreads for the banks and then their collapse from the weight of their bad loans and inability to earn their way out of the box they've painted themselves into. Or maybe Unicredit blows up and the tsunami comes from Europe. There are plenty of things ticking out there, and it only takes one big one that goes off to set the next move in motion.
The bottom line is that either the bond market is wrong or stocks are wrong. Given that Bernanke just provided you his pronouncement and expectations, I wouldn't bet against the bond market, and if the bond market is right then the modest "mini-crash" we just saw is a warning and not a buying opportunity, just as Pompeii's Vesuvius rumbled many times before it blew its stack.
When this is priced into the equity markets - and others - it is likely to be in the form of a nasty dislocation. This also fits with the technical picture; assuming the low today of 1103 holds for the moment and is a localized low then the most-likely retrace is up around 1220, all in the S&P 500.
The next move down, unfortunately, should comprise almost four hundred S&P points and close to four thousand DOW points, and is likely to be more violent than what we just experienced. It could be worse too - it's possible that we see an S&P decline of more than six hundred points, basically cutting the indices in half, more-or-less "all at once."
Enjoy the rally today (and likely for a bit yet on a forward basis) but beware - if I have to choose between the stock market and bond market as to who's right the bond market is almost always both the leader and the correct choice.
...
ibid.
linkage..
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=191850
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