ES (weekly info)new low 1194.75
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1194.75
rev= 1316.75; mid= 1255.75
The 38.2% retrace (1225.75) was bested last week. It also closed below the SMA(55). It made a confirmation low on the weekly 3LB. After S&P downgraded the U.S. the ES opened almost 30 handles lower. It has been trying to find support at the SMA(89) & SMA(233). So far the 50.0% retrace (1186.00) has been resistance in the overnight session.
GOLD (weekly info)new high 1651.80
trend=up
high= 1651.80
rev= 1592.30; mid= 1622.05
Last weeks carnage put a decent bid under gold. Even though it sold off from its highs it still was able to make a new weekly high. It opened 30 points higher and is looking to break $1700. It's above all SMA's and holding its 0.0% retrace (1684.90). There is no resistance just profit taking.
YEN (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 1.30080
rev= 1.25020; mid= 1.27550
The BOJ intervention team couldn't even send the yen below its weekly 3LB mid. It's still above all SMA's. It's already well into last weeks candle. Exactly how much firepower does the BOJ have? We're about to find out.
113 comments:
AT/Bat
re: books
I'm familiar with Twilight, I suppose everyone is by now, but not Hunger Games. Regardless, think it's fair to say that social forecast has played out. After that came out we got series like Saw (I think they made Saw 43 right?) which had an overriding theme of torture and were basically disgusting movies. Also recall the slew of Zombie movies that emerged in 08/09, which is really the same thing that happened in Japan. In 2009 the number 3 NYT Bestseller was Pride and Prejudice and Zombies and interesting book considering the background, or recently The Zombie Survival Guide which has been extremely popular. The "mood" even crept into the language as we all refer to Zombie banks all the time, this also originated in Japan.
Highly doubtful this trend is near over.
and while we are still all talking about the S&P downgrade, there was a trader on CNBC this morning that made some interesting points, not word for word but this is basically what he said:
1. S&P is owned by McGraw HIll
2. McGraw Hill reported earnings on 7/28 and on that call they made a very clear point they wanted to have credibility in Europe
3. His claim then moved to the idea that due to this desire for credibility this is why they made the US downgrade now, because what better way to gain credibility than to downgrade the US
4. He finalized by saying he didn't think the call was so much political as it was S&P worrying about their own business, he also hinted at the idea that they had the call made up in their minds before reviewing the actual data and this is how you end up doing a $2 trillion rounding error.....when you have the final results already made up in your mind.
but most interesting was his conclusion:
"the US has the largest military, the ability to tax, the ability to print money and so on, you find me what is safer than the US and I'll buy that but my thinking is that whatever the US is rated now that's the best and everything else is lower than that"
lets not forget that psychology is a very powerful thing in markets, it might seem logical for a lot of people to be screaming that yields would surely go higher on such "news" but the market likes to crush people that forecast in such a manner
good luck to everyone this week, mostly good luck with your emotions, we'll all be feeling it this week, regardless of whether or not you are positioned well
also, I would like to say
this morning I see a growing chorus of people singing about how
'we owe the debt to ourselves'
one word response: stupid
also,
PIMCO's Neil Cash n Carry
"China is waking up this morning thinking 'oh we took on too much risk' and they will look to diversify"
is he for real?
We've been hearing for how many years now that the Chinese were already doing this.....are you kidding me? Yeah, they are probably all waking up and just now getting a clue about this, thanks to S&P the Chinese now know the US has debt issues.......hilarious.
Why does the financial media continue to ask guests is this the bottom? Don't they understand that the bottom is found in hindsight?
I spy the intervention from 1AM ET to 5AM ET. Now what are they going to do?
"'we owe the debt to ourselves'
one word response: stupid"
+1
@Andy T
It's things like this, I believe, which is why you'll eventually be sending me the roll of 1964 Kennedys...
http://sports.yahoo.com/golf/blog/devil_ball_golf/post/Steve-Williams-is-holding-a-serious-grudge-again;_ylt=AszUTAph6EtTMoPxWWuElNw5nYcB?urn=golf-wp4473
It was a utterly classless of Williams to:
1. NOT take the opportunity to take the high road when handed an almost divine intervention to do so.
2. Probably MORE important, steal limelight AWAY from a great moment for his new boss.
If CV were Adam Scott, I'd seriously be re-thinking the long term viability of this relationship (for reasons other than golf).
As for El Tigre. Nobody really knows what's left in that tank. Time will tell. But I'd sure be NOT interested in letting him get up off the mat, or injecting him with motivation to do so...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odkIEDi2x0g
wowza, gold up 50+, NAZ down 50+, gonna be a high volume day on both. Think'n many will sell some gold to lock in profits.
crude still falling, maybe this will work, claim is they can make renewable diesel at 15,000 gallons/acre/year, and they're just about up and running in New Mexico. How it works
oh, and if JouleUnlimited's claims are true, it could change our world as we know it...
"We estimate our costs for diesel and ethanol to be as low as $20/bble and $0.60/gallon respectively. This is based on an industrial-scale plant of at least 1,000 acres, producing our commercial targets of 15,000 gallons/diesel or 25,000 gallons/ethanol per acre annually, and taking into account our total expected costs and existing, applicable credits."
gonna be another high volume day
sort of expected NLY to be down more this morning
it's early though
cv: Agree it was classless of Stevie Williams....
Checklist:
"dark cross" - coming soon
Hindenburg Omens - may arrive this week
Jackson Hole - planes are gassing up on the tarmac
QE3 - take your best guess
result of QE3 - whatever you want to make of it (but remember there's a curious little 'weekly' chart gap on the $SPX own near 1108)
---
GIB Czar's humble offering: Buy a bunch of 'Jerry Cans' and see if you can't get a deal on some cheap diesel fuel while the sale lasts...
"...but my thinking is that whatever the US is rated now that's the best and everything else is lower than that"..."
Mc22,
there's some sound thought behind that, no?
given the current Schema, the "Paperback" is the 'Center of the Universe', yes?
all, almost, other Currencies/Countries are, truly, derivatives of the U$D/U.S., no?
~~
"'we owe the debt to ourselves'"
that, really, is some childish 'magical *thinking'..
it is Stupid..but, really, it is, deeper than that, symptomatic of a, very, Deep Pathology..
AAIP
AAIP,
I basically agree with the statement yes
which government debt would you prefer to own instead of the US?
I proposed this question to a client Friday, she responded to me with: "Brazil"....but not as a statement, more like a question, interesting choice I suppose
my response was: no, I'm not thinking that pensions or people are about to trade in US govt paper for something in Brazil, not even during the Olympics....
I read the sentiment the way that trader is basically
but we'll see if time and the herd proves me wrong
I thought that trader did a fantastic job this morning. All weekend I was sort of thinking this was mainly a political statement by S&P, but perhaps it makes even more sense that it is simply them trying to save their business by "making waves", never even considered that but it does make sense to me
q's -
the joule video narration says "We estimate our costs for diesel and ethanol to be as low as $20/bbl including subsidies..." presumably the subsidies reference this
"taking into account our total expected costs and existing, applicable credits."
still, anything significantly below $60/bbl would bode well for the process in the long term
Taking this from Cobra's site comments this morning:
For what it's worth, there have been 9 other times in their 30-year history that the S&P futures dropped 5% or more in a week, slumping to at least a six-month low, then gapped down -2% or more on the open.
8 of those 9 days closed the day higher, and were also higher 3 days later. The average return from open to close was a whopping +3.1%, with the loser being -2.2% (from October 6, 2008).
Here are the dates, along with the day's return from open to close:
9/21/01: +3.5%
6/26/02: +2.4%
7/24/02: +8.5%
1/22/08: +3.3%
1/23/08: +5.4%
9/16/08: +4.1%
10/6/08: -2.2%
10/8/08: +0.3%
10/10/08: +2.3%
The 2000's have been quite the decade yes?
I wouldn't put much into this other than to say the charts could go either way, we are so oversold right now we either get a sharp rally to sell into or we could waterfall
I haven't a clue in the next few days, glad a lot of my clients money is in cash right now....
man,....this is just ugly
so much for Friday's lows holding 4 times
I guess the fifth was a charm
"I haven't a clue in the next few days, glad a lot of my clients money is in cash right now...."
I hear ya, now really glad I parked the 401K funds in the garage (maybe 1/2-2%/YR). 100% invested start of the year, pulled out @ 1330+ after the run to 1370. Probably could have sold at a better price, but damn, we're down 200+ from those highs.
Oh, experts at Wells Fargo said I should invest for the longer term, not trade the acct 2 or 3 times each year. Well, sometimes I agree with that, but not this time.
it'd be better if I had happened to have ALL my clients money in cash
fortunately I own lots of bonds too
but I'm trapped in some longs as well
I didn't avoid this entirely
Next stop on the Major 18's 1150...
1244
1212
1174
1150
1128
1112
Well let's see. The 61.8% retrace (1168.03) didn't hold. So the hunt for the 100.0% retrace (1049.72) has begun. Pit stops along the way are the minor retraces of 1122.84 (38.2%), 1108.88 (50.0%) & 1094.91 (61.8%).
401k money, imo
should be shifting towards a defensive position as possible with a Dow Theory Sell Signal on 8/2/11
A long time horizon is not a justification for not protecting capital.....at least that's my opinion.
"Well let's see. The 61.8% retrace (1168.03) didn't hold. So the hunt for the 100.0% retrace (1049.72) has begun. Pit stops along the way are the minor retraces of 1122.84 (38.2%), 1108.88 (50.0%) & 1094.91 (61.8%)."
---
There... (sleek version)
GIB Czar will go out on a limb & say that Au more or less TOPS (on this go around) very close to the same 'time' matrix function...
anyone here that got involved in VIX calls
holy crap...congrats if so, what a monster trade
the VIX is so stretched the odds of going higher now must be close to 0, they were extremely low on Friday
this is like a what? 5 standard deviation event there?
I'm not mathy enough right now to figure it out, but it's out there.....
B22, you seemingly have a very stressful job at times, not sure if many could do it well.
The secret to surviving
is knowing what to throw away
and knowing what to keep
think of this, what if someone downgraded S&P this week?
that would really be classic
Q's
yeah it can be, but I lived through 06, 07, 08, 09, and the flash crash last year
I feel it, don't get me wrong, but after a while it's just the normal few months of every year anymore
the worst part about the last several years is that I've become absolutely terrified of ever leaving the office for more than a day or two
@qqqq
Too complicated... The secret to surviving is...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_izvAbhExY&ob=av3e
Has Moody's downgraded anyone/anything?
Remember S&P wouldn't publish BR's book because he talked smack about the rating agencies... clastic
I suppose I'm stating the obvious saying there is obviously a war right now between the inflation and deflation camps
on one side you have gold doing its thang
on the other, scores of people parking capital in bonds and cash
one group going to be right first.....
@Czar whatever name you're gonna use this hour <---?[!!]
yeh but BG's are a group, B22 is a group of one
I remember that, thought that was a shining moment in the BR career
regardless of what I think about his book, that he didn't compromise what he wanted to say in it is worth something
someone must have posted that scribd file somewhere yday. got almost 300 reads in the last 24 hours....that's unprecedented w/out me posting it elsewhere.
hopefully it turns out ok....
ha.
Andy highlighted the RSI in his charts
check it out now...funk soul brothers
charts are getting very tough here
there are extreme readings on all kinds of things that I've just never seen, no historical basis to compare them to anything
bounced off 1150...Andy's movin' markets...
that was BR's last shining moment....
AT,
I sent that update out to about a dozen advisors
you da man!
on one side you have gold doing its thang
on the other, scores of people parking capital in bonds and cash
one group going to be right first.....
---
FWIW - GIB Czar sees it more like BOTH sides 'taking turns' at being right into the intermediate future...
But that's how I got my title of 'GIB czar'
@qqqq
Must be because he has that "eye of the tiger"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEjgPh4SEmU
"charts are getting very tough here
there are extreme readings on all kinds of things that I've just never seen, no historical basis to compare them to anything"
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2we_B6hDrY
arlight, I need to go for the rest of the day
good luck
keep ur head
or check it, beastie boys style
i spy a falling wedge on the Sep s&p futures ...20 min charts...we'll see.
SPX at 200 week SMA
Press release:
GIB Czar has found a candidate for deputy assistant...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-stock-market-and-dollar-there-are-only-three-possibilities
Highlights:
The Stock Market and the Dollar: There Are Only Three Possibilities
A. Stocks go up and the dollar drops to new lows
B. Stocks fall and the dollar rises significantly, a pattern that has repeated several times since 2007
C. The see-saw breaks and stocks and the USD rise or fall together.
---
Get right out of town! With 'crack analysis' (emphasis on 'crack') like that... That guy might just fly right by the "deputy assistant" GIB job opening position & right on up to Treasury Secretary!
,,,"someone must have posted that scribd file somewhere yday"
wickedly mysterious, not in a paranormal sort of way though.
looking at SPY 30min chart - volume, 50MA, on the 27th it was around 9-10M, it's been increasing, now around 37M, i'm presuming more and more peeps want out.
Wow. Someone throw BAC a life preserver.
AR, was watching that, something about 28bagatrazillion in bad loans.
If the US is rated AA+, then BarfofA should be rated F
something I'm thinking about:
John Paulson is not having a good year, at all. Lets keep in mind the size he holds in GLD....will he need liquidity soon? I don't know, but I have to imagine there were some levered longs that have been margin called to high heaven in the last two weeks. In fact, we know there were, as we started floating around those margin charts about 5-6 weeks ago, they had reached levels as high or higher than 2000 and 2007 depending on what you were looking at.
We also know for certain that Black Scholes is deeply flawed and we also know random walk is nonsense....well, I think a lot of people know this anyway.
Look at put prices on GLD right now....now look at Puts and you tell me if probabilities are being ranked properly
I'm not suggesting for ANYONE to put that trade on, I'm just suggesting consideration of what I'm saying.... and I may take a trade myself
a trade where I can make a lot of gold experiences a very quick drop, not some huge correction to below $1,000, no, I'm talking like $100/ounce and limit losses if it grinds higher or make small gains if it drops only a little and consolidates before another move up
@ben
You're not the only one thinking about that...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-just-start-paulsons-problems-behold-citigroup
B22, lots of peeps have lost their you know what betting against gold, but, gold will pull back from what I've been noticing around the even numbers, 1300, 1400, 1500, somewhat 1600 though.
shhhhh, PrezO is gonna speak!
Ben -- too funny, I had just purchased a few Sept 82 UGL puts. Has a little bit of the AGQ look to it from back in late April.
Random thoughts from GIB Czar...
Hmmm... If I want to own MORE gold bullion, but get it at a cheaper price in spot paper markets what can I do?...
Let's see... One thing would be that if I could start a run on BAC stock (assuming someone like Paulson is still holding there, and may also be 'levered' into paper gold)...
When the dust settles, here are some of the possible scenarios:
- BAC if forced to the brink of bankruptcy, necessitating a JPM/Bear Stearns, BAC/Merrill, Wells/Wachovia type intervention... "The Chosen" one gets all the BAC assets (a theory expressed by 'a friend' of GIB Czar a few weeks ago on this blog)... Blah - Blah - Blah, bottom line, Countrywide & crap portfolios are cut out (probably end up on the 'Fed [who has nothing to do with anything]'s balance sheet... Performing parts are left in the hands of the banks run by the children of the ghost of Mayer Amschel Rothschild
Result?
- more privatized gains
- more socialized losses (as the Fed's balance sheet gets larger because the bad Countrywide loans are never technically written off)... Losses occur via dilution of value of Fed notes (dollars) - so the LOSS is in 'buying power'
In any case - In the whole process, more alarm bells of Armageddon sound (ushering in calls for TARP 2.0 before the universe explodes)...
The savior banks (at this point, you have your choice between 2)... get the money... buy gold bullion with it (having crushed the paper spot price in the process by taking Paulson to the woodshed)... and put it on pallettes in warehouses in beautiful downtown detroit (with a few bars in Jamie & Lloyds secret trap door, under the wine cellar, in the cottage in the country that they own under a 'shell' name)...
As for BAC?
1. Let it go BYE BYE
OR
2. Keep it alive (after the 'bad' stuff gets carved out)... Stock price doubles (helped along by the money printing bonanza)...
Of course we all know, as well, if the price ips below $5, there will be a 1-7 split (or whatever ratio would 'look right' to both keep it alive, but have it trade just under what JPM trades at...
Bulls need to strap it on right here....
ben -
"think of this, what if someone downgraded S&P this week?
that would really be classic"
harry shearer's le show last night featured a parody of exactly that, a guy starts up an agency that rates the agencies. lampoons the faux business news as well, "now over to the money honey, sylvia mille argent"
i'd link but last night's le show won't be posted until after noon p.d.t.
!YiKeS!
more bear feeding time
Whoa!
Can't be down more than 9.99% until the circuit breakers are turned off. But I suspect they'll be kept on. You know the "blah blah blah emergency blah blah blah".
Yowza.
guess we're going down to the next round number....
1100.
Wow.
"The market never crashes in August.... "
There goes another aphorism. It's two months EARLY !!!
Full-blown panic out there today.
It's so much like October 2008, so orderly, so quiet.
The Suction Device™ is withdrawing liquidity.
If this doesn't scare the public away from stocks for life....?
The buying of Treasuries ceased to be rational weeks ago.
Amazing. Just when you think it can't happen again...
"Looks like you're going to need a bigger boat".
Low 1122, from the 2011 high of 1370.
That's about 18% off the top....
Most people are on vacation, and don't even know what hit 'em.
wow....it's getting really hairy
70 S&P handles!
scratch the gold idea then, if it's published on mainstream its probably not worth anything
client calls are now flooding in
I had nothing this morning, which was very odd
that didn't last.....
people are more calm though than 08, if only because this happened so fast, by September of 08 we'd already been down for nearly a year....
the last several 13F's showed JP getting out of BAC:
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/122490/john-paulson-trims-bac-position-still-bullish-on-gold
Unless Prechter's P3 is coming true the VIX has to stop current trajectory
it's literally impossible for that to continue, it would basically mean everyone is making the same exact bet
AIG is suing BAC for $10 billion...
just saying... (doubt it really means that much as a newsbyte on a day like this)...
Screw the S&P...
'Golden Sombrero' award goes to the R2K...
See what happens when I go on vacation?
Never again, laughing...
ben, Karen will be showing us the red pair tonight....
They're red because she was sunbathing topless?
...hey, hey, hey...good ol' days are here again
got within about 12 points from karens top today...
while I was on phone with client she told me that O-man was on tv blaming the tea party for all of this
pretty hilarious if you ask me
Bruce,
Not to bring up a sore subject, but Hussman doesn't look like a monkey anymore does he?
Trust me, I know the pain of staying conservative for clients last year, some of mine took off because I did it
but you know, I was doing it for them....not for me.
I thought the KT was 1203 not 1103?
Hard to remember all those Tops.
apparently there is chaos at our home office today, talked to a buddy at JPM desk as well, he said its nuts there
I know a couple advisors that are "dumping everything" today
maybe that was the low for the day then
not the last time we'll see them of course....
R2K at 666...
Oh no... don't tell me...
China Olympics started on 8/8/08 (at 8:08 PM)...
The chinese olympics were started there by design
chinese number 8 means "prosper" or "wealth"
whats the point CV?
The government should restore confidence by raising the debt ceiling and then bailing out BAC and C bondholders at full face value.
Bwahahaha! I kid, I kid...
It's not over just yet...
I KNOW they were started there by design...
No point whatsoever... I'm not of the mindset that everything has to have a point...
I mean... If everyone here would like to publish their birthday (or other dates to remember)... I'll be glad to send you a happy b-day note ON those days... Ignoring the fact that it would be pointless to do so...
Actually I lie...
There IS a point...
The point being this... dates present the opportunity for a recollection of time...
A way of saying "I was THERE then, & I'm HERE now"... You can then reflect on all your dreams, remember what you were thinking then (because I REMEMBER pretty much what I was doing & THINKING on the day that I was sitting & watching the opening ceremony)...
How things have changed since... & a lot of other well & good things that I believe have VALUE...
So if none of those kinds of THOUGHTS are important to anyone on this blog... Then I apologize to Amen & Andy for having wasted space...
The "golden buddha" award will go to the person (in Amen Ra's Corner), that publishes a comment at 8:08PM...
grab your snorkels, might be going down again.
"No point whatsoever... I'm not of the mindset that everything has to have a point.."
hmm, alrighty then
so in that case
red fluffy snow cones at my grandmas house in Bridgeport on the back porch
what the hell does that mean?
who knows, I don't even have a grandma in Bridgeport.....
that may also be a yet undiscovered technical pattern
Digging thru the files for another bear picture :-)
my boss was tyring to rearrange some stuff in his 529's...he called fidelity and vanguard...
the people there said they wud do their best but that it was really, really busy....
Ma' and Pa' and Johnny dumping it all....
today's action might be Kraken worthy
of course, we may get something even better you can use that on
hardly seems out of the question that we move directly to 1040 from here, though I'm not expecting that
of course, me and everyone else have been looking for the bounce that never came for days now
lowest Daily RSI reading since post 9/11 opening...
nice.
AR, how about this?
Also... (on the subject of "8"s)...
1108 is where there's a WEEKLY chart gap on the $SPX candle...
Wouldn't it be a gas if the S&P hit 1108 on 11/08 (which is how a European would write 'August 11th')?
If I remember... Au peaked right around the time of the China Olympic opening...
& next Monday (August 15th) is a holiday in most of Europe...
Big Forex moves & PM moves often happen on these occasions... blah blah blah...
Andy,
Indeed, you can't even compare RSI to anything in 08 or 09 really at this point
not really sure what to make of that
there is little doubt in my mind now that retail is selling hard
I use the Fidelity 529 from NH, the Unique plan
they have a money market option
boo yah son....
of course, it's not a treasury only mm, so I'm hardly out of the woods
CNBC: "Let's go to the Heat Map...."
what a stupid thing....
Unfortunately for the bulls it appears we're closing at/near the lows of the day. A run up into the close and I might have been worried for the bears. Oh well time for seconds.
@ben
hardly seems out of the question that we move directly to 1040 from here, though I'm not expecting that
---
FWIW - I wouldn't be surprised to see it...
I'd be looking at something like a REVERSE H&S which uses 1108 as a base of operations... So - wherever it decides to "root downwards" from there... (applying all FIBOS & waves in the process)...
QQQQ
Not bad but need one of those with flies buzzing around the carcass.
...how about that G7 intervention?
AT, lol, I heard that, they should be showing stuff like this...candlestick
AR, or one like that with a smiling bear ripping into it's carcass!
Seriously, I like this Kayla Tousche chick....
but putting someone in front of a "heat map" where 499 stocks were down vs. 1 UP....
It's sort of silly...
Holy shit.
Ummm ummm VIX closes at 47.85! Gatdayum!!
Didn't we just do this on Thursday? It just keeps going down. I'm not watching every tick, just checking in from time to time. Every time I look my eyes get wide. Glad to be in cash and gold coins. A little of UUP as well, but that doesn't seem to be playing along very well with TEOTWAWKI safe haven thing...
The administration tried to ease everyone's fear with "Don't you worry about a thing" by Stevie Wonder but the market was listening to "Another one bites the dust" by Queen.
Fuck a duck.... this is absolute madness.
Keep an eye on London, chaps. It's burning.
London is not Athens or Beirut. This matters.
@LB, the London riots have taken me by surprise. Did not realize the situation was as flammable there as some other parts of Europe... Wonder if the stock market drops have something to do with it?
Trigger was a shooting of an unarmed civilian by police.
It's not cricket. People will not stand for it in London.
lb -
quite.
whereas stateside, it's just
bidness as usual.
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