A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: Ouch! That will leave a scar.
SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). Tested and held the 38.2% minor retrace (1122.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below daily, weekly & monthly 3LB mids.
DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Tested and failed 50.0% minor retrace (74.67). Back below SMA(55) & SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).
VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Way above all SMA's. Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (39.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Ran away from the "extreme fear" zone.
GOLD
Dark cloud cover day (needs confirmation!!!). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its new 0.0% retrace (1801.00). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1666.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURCHF
Bullish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (1.0048). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (1.0803). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.0296).
JNK
Bullish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Holding its 0.0% retrace (36.35). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (37.38). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).
10YR YIELD
Bullish engulfing day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (21.73). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.58).
WTI
Bullish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (80.17).Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (85.30). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 91.93).
SILVER
Spinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (37.94). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.70).
BKX
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (36.55). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (39.08). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.34).
HYG/LQD
Bullish engulfing day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7682). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7928).
USDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.01). Calling BoJ. Calling BoJ. The ball is still in your court.
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
21 comments:
its real funny that the one and only Burton Malkiel is writing op-ed's in the WSJ:
Don't Panic About the Stock Market
how the hell would he know, it's all random after all?
Throw him up there with Cpt. Taleb and his "must have" short tresuries trade
ben22
When you're moving 2% per day in either direction is a time to panic. All cannot be well.
Ra,
While I'm looking for some pullback tomorrow heading into the weekend
how funny would it be if we ended the week basically unchanged
Alright bitchez...
NFL Pre-season kickoff gets underway in about an hour... CV is going to add a wrinkle to the 2011 NFL 'picks' supplement by tossing in PRESEASON picks...
Now listen... You have to understand that MOST of these games are played by 3rd & 4th stringers trying to make it from the 90 man roster to the 45 man roster (& things are WORSE this year because of the lockout), but hear me out...
Preseason often becomes a game of which coaches are INTERESTEd & which ones aren't... If you know the nuances, you can often get your bankroll UP before the season even starts... So I'm going to show you what I'm seeing here...
RAVENS (-3) at EAGLES
CV is taking the Ravens here for (4 units)... John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason matchups in 3 years as Baltimore head coach, while cheesesteak gnoshing Andy Reid is 18-30... Add in the fact that Harbaugh came FROM Andy Reid's system (as a special teams coach before getting the job in Baltimore)... Prodigies ALWAYS have a motivational advantage over former employers...
Not to mention that the Ravens are a 'serious - no-nonsense' football team (while the Eagles are a bunch of clowns)...
RAVENS getting 3 1/2??? Count me in for 4 units...
Sorry... In the bold there it says RAVENS (-3)...
The Ravens are GETTING (3.5)...
SEATTLE at SAN dIEGO (-4.5)
Norv Turner has a horrible record before October 25th, but he's actually 'passable' in pre-season games (which flies under the radar because most of the interest in PRESEASON is NOT on PST time zone games)... Pete Carroll is 1-3... & I'm guessing that Seattle has a lot of personnel shifting to figure out before they're ready to play some football...
I'll take the CHARGERS for (1 unit)...
Wouldn't we all have to take issue with these two para's???
"Is it time to sell all your stocks, which are still well above their lows of 2009? I think not. No one can predict what the stock market will do in this and coming weeks. Stocks may continue their decline, but I believe it would be a serious mistake for investors to panic and sell out. There are several reasons for optimism that in the long run we will see higher, not lower, market valuations.
First, I believe that stocks today are cheap. Price/earnings multiples are just over 14 and forward P/E multiples, which use forecasted earnings, have shrunk to less than 12. These multiples are low relative to historical precedent and are especially low when considered in comparison to a 10-year Treasury yield of 2.5%. Dividend yields of 2.5% also compare favorably with 10-year Treasurys."
If nobody can predict where we will be in two weeks or two years or two decades then why bother comparing current estimated indicators and what the market will do in response to those indicators if history has no way of telling you anything about the future? And the comment about "since they are still well above their 2009 lows"....what does that even mean....you should not sell unless you have a loss? Ok......
In his "seminal" book he claims that it is tomorrows news that drives stock prices.....his words.....
the entire commentary above is thus contradictory to his own statement
later:
"My advice for investors is to stay the course. No one has ever become rich by being a long-term bear on the fortunes of the United States, and I doubt that anyone will do so in the future"
Well, I'd rather think that anyone long term bear that risked capital on their outlook in 2010 has in fact likely become rich. Just as long term bears in 1966 got wealthy over the next decade just like long term bears in 1929 did....and so on. Once again, is it not interesting for someone that claims history has no use in making forecasts decides to extrapolate the long term historical trend of US stocks anyway in determining what he thinks investors should do?!!! His own book tells you that the very history he quotes does not matter!
I could continue on, but this is already taken care of as many academics have now ruled out the idea of Random Walk through empirical evidence.
The studies that were quoted in his original book have shown that the testers that drew the conclusion that random walk must be true not only made mathematical errors in their experiments but also created biased tests to prove what they had already determined to be true.
This is well documented for anyone that would like to debate it.
@CV,
Steve Smith signs with the Birds
what do you think
Pretty sure they play the Ravens tonight
I'm still looking over teams 'on paper'....lol
"Well, I'd rather think that anyone long term bear that risked capital on their outlook in 2010 has in fact likely become rich."
that should read "in 2000" but you all knew that.....
My advice for investors is to stay the course.
CrackieB,
re: that Douche nozzle..
Good Points..Cogent Dissection.
the 'money-shot', to me, is above..
LSS: Anyone dishonest, enough, to "Argue", as he did, in his *Thesis, that History has no Value in understanding the Today, and its 'Morrow--All, I'll posit, for the benefit of the, then, nascent, MutFund Industry--is, of course, 'Ho, enough, to lay out the "All is Well"-Agitprop..
As is said: "A slice off a cut Loaf, is never missed.."
AAIP
@ben
"on paper"... ROTFLMFAO
BWAAAAAHHHHAAAAAHHHAAAAA! :-)
---
I'll make more comments on Steve Smith (THAT Steve Smith) as time goes by...
My 'quickie' right now is this...
Cv is going out on a limb here & saying 'de sean jackson' is T-O-A-S-T... He took a (largely unseen FEROCIOUS hit against Houston last year on a Thursday night game [that NOBOY saw because Roger Goodell is, well, even MORE of a 'twatwaffle' than Ellen deGeneres])... Since that hit he's done jack shit (1 td reception - a bunch of mediocre games, punctuated & forgotten by the fact that he ran that punt back for a td against the Giants that miraculously got the overrated & overhyped eagles into the playoffs last year [where Green Bay came in & handed them their asses on a silver platter])...
Bottom line??? 'desean' is asking for more $$ (which he deserves based on yesterdays performance - but now that he hears 'footsteps' & can only run '99' routes - any SMART NFL GM will take a pass...
THAT - coupled with Jeremy Maclin's 'strange' illness...
MEANS (as in 'Natrone')...
Steve Smith... IMO... Is a solid 'possession' receiver (vis-a-vis: Anquan Boldin or derrick Mason... But he's going to be 'out' for probably the first 5-6 games this season...
He'd BE the future for the Eagles that way... EXCEPT... They went with a dOG KILLER & 'psycho' at QB, & shipped their only viable QB to Arizona...
So what can I say?
BTW...
That 'Natrone Means' reference was a 'shout out' to VONTA LEACH (who CV thinks is the best NFL fullback SINCE Natrone Means)...
Welcome to Baltimore!
cv--
if I 'did' "Pre-Season", I'd go with those Picks, of yours,..
ibid.
@AAIP,
couldn't agree with you more
CV
hadn't caught your first post until I made mine
I saw your comment about D. Jackson the other day and the big hit against the Texans...I know the hit you are talking about, very interesting observation there.....
I"m always selling the Birds every year, always shy away from them in fantasy but then someone on that team is always putting up some pretty big stats so its a tough call
they win a lot of games too, just not the right games....
but Oakland this year.....look out!
It really never gets old:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GD5EUVIvWo
ten second mark: BEAST!
Dude. That TD was S-I-C-K.
I'm a Saints fan...still can't believe that putrid performance in Seattle...still can't believe they had to hit the road to play that shitty 7-9 team.
What an explosive move in the upward direction for risk assets, today.
I need to see more to be convinced. I get the impression (and some of our sell-side coverage has expressed it) that there are a lot of levels floating for fixed incomes, but if you want to put a block in, those quotes are soon revealed to have flimsy backing (i.e., this is my level... unless you actually want to trade).
Don't get me wrong. I am sure that there some big fish on the buy side who are well positioned to take their pound of flesh from weak hands, providing bid liquidity to panickers and helping pussy banks run for cover (amazing how banks constantly extoll the virtues of their market making operations, but they are nowhere to be found when they are needed most). But these market participants are relatively few.
These +4-5 percent days just look like extreme vol. to me. I think that we need five to ten trading sessions with moves less than 1 percent (either direction), with a positive bias, before real order is restored. Nobody wants to build inventory after 5 percent gain and then get their fucking face ripped off the next day.
First there's one: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/official-statement-french-regulator-15-day-financial-short-selling-ban
Then there's two: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/official-statement-spanish-regulator-15-day-financial-short-selling-ban
Welcome to the abyss
Ok. This is funny. All evening I was having problems posting to the blog. Nothing I tried would post. Cleared the cache and cookies. Nothing helped. By chance I remembered to look at the script for the link. And behold the leading "<" was ">" and would not allow the comment to post. Lesson learned.
Well... My foray into 'preseason' picks officially layed a big fat egg... LOL
Oh well...
I'll say something tho... I watched a few games & none were as 'sloppy' as you might expect for a preseason game...
Whatever that indicates...
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