AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Still holding 1041.83 again (.1459 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.69). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Back above the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.31).




VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.46).



GOLD
Doji day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding onto gains (heading towards the 0%). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1227.00).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2654).



JNK
Bearish short day. Still failing to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and above the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Still confirming inverted hammer. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is holding. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.81).



AUDJPY
Bearish long day. Tested but failed the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed below the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



YEN (FXY)
Bullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 117.63).




DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish long day. Back below the upper trendline and the SMA(233). Still below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4236.96). Back below weekly 3LB reversal price.

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.30.10

A risk-off day in credit. LB is not a chartist, or a Fib merchant, but the moves in LQD, TLT and TBT were close to a 61.8% retrace of Friday's bloodbath.... today was a flattener, with the 7-10y being very strong. IG outperformed HY, and TIPS were well bid on a POMO day.

Corpies: LQD 0.65%; AGG 0.68%; JNK -0.10%; HYG 0.18%;
Govies: TLT 1.91%; IEI 0.52%; TIP 0.45%
Hedgies: TBT -3.73%

TLT is either making a lower high here, or else it will continue to surge higher as yields drive lower and lower on "the economy" and "the FED".

We tend to think that there will be a pull-back in Treasuries here, so we are hedging our fixed income for now. We are long AGG, LQD, JNK and HYG in various proportions.

For now, we are in the camp that says 1040 holds, yields have put in their lows, and there will eventually be a move out along the risk curve. If there is a decisive break of 1040, we will obviously re-evaluate.