A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: I play both sides. No trade is safe when I'm around.
SPXBullish long day. Morning star confirmed. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Passed the third test of 1041.83 (.1459 fibo from high). Back above 1078.87 (1.618 fib from low). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1047.22). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day. Failed the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 83.31).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Now below the SMA(21) & SMA(144). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 27.46).
GOLDBearish harami day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Yet is still heading towards the 0% (we'll see). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1230.10).
EURUSDBullish long day. Midpoint slightly below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2654).
JNKBullish long day (yet closed unchanged). Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has held. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. closed one gap (2 more left). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.85).
AUDJPYBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(144). Tested and passed the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 74.2463).
DJ TRANS AVGBullish long day. Back above the upper trendline, the SMA(233), the SMA(55) and SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 4082.51). Above weekly 3LB reversal price.
GSSpinning top day (really? as bullish as today was?). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Below the 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 143.95).
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 9.1.10
Ah, risk! A rose by any other name should smell as sweet....
Corpies: LQD -0.61%; AGG -0.33%; JNK 0.83%; HYG 1.02%;
Govies: TLT -2.08%; IEI -0.34%; TIP -0.43%
Hedgies: TBT 4.06%
We covered our short of the long bond, and enjoyed the screams. A little too much, perhaps, but that's what makes us who we are...
POMO tomorrow. Then we get to do this all over again.
Sublime. Admit it, we are good.
37 comments:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/more-than-50-chance-of-new-recession-says-ecri's-lakshman-achuthan-535386.html?tickers=%5Edji,%5Eixix,%5Espy&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
More Than 50% Chance Of New Recession, Says ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan
...I have comment before Mexican and margaritas...Hussman has been beating this moron all summer like a rented mule about the increasing possibility of a recession, and LA has been poo-poo'ing it worse than Karen trying to get LB's mind from her top...(prediction, that is).
Someone should tell LA that predictions are only good if done in ADVANCE of an event...I think he may have dozed through that part of the tea leaves class...
The recession calls aside, LA was confusing (for me) with his comments recently about what could have been done in early 08, not to stop the recession, but to delay it somehow or make it less costly? Did I read him correctly at BR's within the comments the other day?
"When we wrote the first article in January 2008 it was already obvious that the Administration and the Congress, at the urging of the Fed, had decided to enact the first stimulus package. The money was going to be spent anyway, but looking at our array of leading indexes we had realized that there was a very unusual situation where, for once, a QUICK fiscal jolt could push off the onset of recession for a while which would potentially be very valuable in the context of the credit crisis. We were, and remain, agnostic about the composition of the jolt, but were very clear that it needed to arrive right away, i.e., in a matter of weeks, not months"
That made no sense to me at all, so nearly 40 years of almost unimaginable excess credit and had we just timed ourselves with a quick jolt in 08 based on some cycle work they've done we could have saved some serious money?
For real?
My take at this point is to let the debate go about what ECRI did or didn't do. Who cares really? Seems like both sides should just stick to what they were doing before. As for whether or not they are ethical, also, who cares...come on...goldman sachs is still in business. If they aren't going to tell anyone how they actually construct these things then people are going to continue to interpret them every which way, and even if they did tell everyone what was in it, people would still do the same thing.
big props to anybody day trading the last several months that made money or broke even. We are getting these 90% days on such a regular basis it's got to be pretty brutal.
Richard Russell had good advice tonight:
"Today was another 90% panic-type up day. The public is confused, investors are confused, and, of course, the market is confused. My advice is to stand still and don't do anything. If you don't do anything, you're not going to do anything stupid."
Ditto McF
Consider this if you lost money today in the big rally. Most of the people who made a mountain of money today would have lost 2 mountains over the course of the summer trying to buy this market.
@Ben
"RP, you know he's my idol....Hoochberger....is a douche, I think Andy would agree his counts are weak....I can't recall an STU count that didn't get tossed in the garbage in the following update in about 12 months. Dude was so hot in 2008 but bias with the waves is ultimate destruction."
When we are undoubtedly in P3 - say intermediate 3 of P3 - I'm sure he'll be hot again. I find his problem to be he is looking/calling for the most bearish count possible - all the time. Sure when swinging for the fences you'll hit a home run every now and then but usually you'll strike out (my cliche for the day). I really wish he'd spend a little more time on the alt counts and maybe then he wouldn't be such a douche.
I haven't check EWI tonight but here are my thoughts after looking at today:
The 25th or 27th could be considered the end of minute i - I'm not too sure as I can see a 5 down for both. From a retracement perspective we've already hit the .382 (1074), the .5 (1085) is within reach, as is the .618 (1095), and .786 is not too far away either (1110). All this assumes 1129-1039 was minute i.
Oh dear... Ben I checked EWI. I'm doubting my count now lol.
McHappy,
haven't looked, let me guess, imminent third wave?
all I see is three waves everywhere, triangles, three waves, I'm getting dizzy.
Now, "THIS" was the move I thought we would get this week....
If I was any kind of day trader I would have been following my own advice and bought the 1037 level, yet again.
Alas, I guess I should be happy with being "not too short".....
"Tis but scratch..."
Took gains on the DXY...stopped out at 82.59 equivalent on the DXU10.
That was real butt reamer today....the kind of action usually associated with short covering rallies only.
I'm surprised BR's "Comment-Bait" thread on Germany didn't bust 100 comments...maybe the populist schtick isn't inciting crowds anymore...perhaps the 'crowd' is just accepting that BR is more progressive/populist than anything else.
"all I see is three waves everywhere, triangles, three waves, I'm getting dizzy."
Welcome to my world.
@mcF (other thread)
"how is the healthcare plan bullish for JNJ? I'll admit, I've got no clue what's in the healthcare bill"...
Pretty much puts you in bed with Nancy Pelosi... lol
@Andy/McF
While you two are here...
Can you guys do a FF draft next Monday at 7:30 PM est?
Andy... Do you have a person you can bring in (for that time)...
I'm close to getting this all squared away, but it's been a nightmare getting peoples schedules organized...
@mcf
Seems to me that EWI is going to have to write a new chapter and change some rules after this...
Please remember what I said on my weekend slide about anyone trying to 'fit' the count lower into an impulse before you look at this wave count:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TH6_OhWEdsI/AAAAAAAAHWg/NomzgBfuiaE/s1600/spx60.png
I'd say something but I'm sitting here watching "The Jimi Hendrix Experience" :-)
@Bruce
LA has predicted 5 out of the last recessions... AFTER they occurred... (he's still not sure whether they did or not - after the fact)...
that's why he gets paid the big bucks...
@Amen
CV's dream moment (to be this good on Guitar Hero)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-P3GBjEth8
@Nic
"Most of the people who made a mountain of money today would have lost 2 mountains over the course of the summer trying to buy this market."
Righto...
Highly unlikely that any of the people you describe were even on hand to profit from todays rally...
OUTFLOWS continue...
This was one for JPM to get rich distributing to 401k hacks...
Trouble is, they won't see their statement until after the first of October...
and by then it will all have vanished in a puff of smoke...
Hopefully they'll enjoy their set of steak knives and lovely other parting gifts...
That's true they would have given up by now.
August began with a 208 point rally, sideways for a week and look what happened then ...
ANDY...BEN
DRAFT (7:37)
Help... This is getting irritating... I'm about to trash the whole idea...
cv.
Yeah, I've got a friend who will play and pay. I'll send you his email address on Yahoo so you can send details.
Monday works.
@Andy
THANKS...
With your friend we're just about set...
I have the 6 signed up (already)... Mock draft went off yesterday but I haven't even looked at it...
I'm going to register the new time (Monday evening)...
Anyway... all 6 will have to re-register their teams (then I'll delete the other draft)...
your guy will be 7, and I have some $$ guys that will come in for 8,9, & 10...
Right now I have to hear from...
- 2s2b
- ben
- jeff
- ahab
that you guys can make the draft for Monday 7:30 PM est...
C,
I can do monday yes, count me in. As for the 7:38, what do you mean?
I could probably make that. Just need to dump my Twins tix, which shouldn't be a problem.
I'm extremely flexible on a draft time- so 7:30 on Monday is fine
@ahab - cool...
@ben - cool...
@Jeff - you and your damn TWINS tix... C'MON MAN!
---
CV made the rounds this evening and I got the rest of my HOMIES hemmed up...
I'm setting up a new draft for Monday, September 6th, at 7:30PM EST
I'll notify you all about the league ID# and log-in password...
Get your teams registered by this weekend (so I have no last minute hassles)...
Andy - Notify your friend of the time and log in...
I'll get rid of them. Don't worry. I have an early flight on Tuesday anyway, so I really don't want to go anyway.
On another note, this one at NC about Dick Fuld evoked a good chuckle:
Or maybe Fuld still believes in the tooth fairy:
The market responded with enthusiasm to reports that the Tooth Fairy has agreed to acquire Lehman. The purchase price has not yet been determined and will be set by Dick Fuld wishing upon a star, clicking his heels three times, and being transported back to that magical place where Lehman still sells for over $70 per share.
In related news, Lehman has agreed to sell all of its level III capital, including CDOs, ABSs, pet rocks, baseball cards, slightly used condoms, and credit default swaps written by MBIA and Ambac. Lehman’s level III capital will be acquired for 150% of its face value by Tinkerbell, who will carry it off to Neverland to be fed to a crocodile. Lehman is financing 90% of the acquisition at an interest rate that has not been announced; Tinkerbell’s up-front payment consists of a handful of pixie dust, three crickets, and a bullfrog. Analyst Dick Bove estimates that the bullfrog could eventually be transformed into three princes and a pumpkin coach. The deal gives Lehman no recourse to any of Tinkerbell’s assets other than the Level III capital. If Tinkerbell defaults, Lehman’s successor entity will stick its hand down the crocodile’s throat and attempt to get it to regurgitate. The firm’s historical value-at-risk analysis shows that sticking your hand down a crocodile’s throat is completely safe.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/09/dick-fuld-is-still-trying-to-blame-everyone-else-for-lehmans-failure.html#comments
CV - I can make 7:30p EST Monday work also
Good evening! my year is looking okay.. yesterday was my biggest single day in a while.. to think I used to do that all the time hurts, but maybe i'm back in sync.. we will see tomorrow.
I am so excited you are all working out the draft, tho! CV.. I can hardly ever arrange a date with one. or even two.. let alone the number you are working with.. Congrats!
Congrats Karen on your win yesterday. And props once again to LB (whose post yesterday about not needing a fancy car I enjoyed).
Anyway, I'm busy doing my wife's law assignment so carry on...
Bertie
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