No! Not that kind!
Well maybe... But we'll get to that later... But if you're going to go that route, better start off with this here first... You know... get your
I mean this kind... But NO, CV isn't turning into an online casino... Like this...
How about we just play a guessing game? A roulette STYLE guessing game... Basically, in roulette, you have a number of different ways to
The reason I bring this game up now is... well... Because "the SUMMER OF HOPE" is just about over... The markets did their best job to sell off over the summer and couldn't manage to take that final step... We all know by now that 1040 seems to be a "line in the sand"... (emphasis on "seems")...
One 90% up day, off 1040, (that came on the first day of a new month - where "pros" traditionally offload their crap onto 401k managers), followed by a low volume day whereby the "indices" didn't even move 5 handles (on paltry volume), has excited many ROULETTE PLAYERS to belly up to the table with their stack of chips...
So what's it gonna be people?
I'm inviting anyone to play along with this game here... Remember last year when Andy T asked many to make their HIGH/LOW predictions for 2010... Well this is sort of like that, but with a twist... I'm going to put up a chart of how CV sees this playing out... I've drawn lines (to future levels), in the appropriate timeframes to illustrate my point...
Obviously, this is a "particular" outcome... I'm not just calling for RED or BLACK here...
Frankly, If the market does NOT go along the lines that I've outlined within the next couple of weeks, I'll have to re-evaluate my call... Timewise & pricewise, Mr. Market is coming to a decision point... When it makes that decision, it ought to move swiftly & decisively deeper into either the RED or BLACK region... If we end the year in the 1200-1300 ranges, I'm sure I'll be long gone by then (not BANKRUPT, mind you - instead, I feel the LEVELS that would change my opinion, and timeframes thereof, should make themselves visible very soon now that summer is ending)...
Anybody willing to make a prediction?... Send me your ideas, and I'll do my best to draw them on a chart (as I've done with mine)... I'll even publish them...
Or... If you want, you can just sit back and do NOTHING... You can just carry on about how governments manipulate stock prices into elections, and, of course, follow all that up with your extensive research on the subject... You could even take to publishing "original work" on your theories... Or you could just sit back and publish other peoples theories and ask everyone else what they think about it... When a consensus is reached, you could side with the consensus and make a lot of friends in the process...
Is that how Dale Carnegie did it? I'm not sure, because I always preferred the TRUTH to wasting my time making friends with people that, when push came to shove, I had little in common with, and who would abandon me in a heartbeat at the first sign of trouble...
Making predictions is a risky business... Frankly, I feel like there is a 99% chance that nothing even resembling what I've drawn out on the chart above will eventually come to pass... But will I feel embarrassed later on when I published something that didn't come true... HELL NO! Why?... Because in REALITY, what I'm doing is going over the smaller imbalances and trying to profit from the reversion to mean...
In any case, what I'm definitely NOT doing is this...
Sitting around on a fence making only the vaguest of statements that can be interpreted loosely, and/or not committing to anything at all...
It's no wonder to CV that this country elects leaders like Bush or Obama... That's what happens when a person has NO IDEA of exactly what they'd like to see, and no way of expressing it, or illustrating it... In the end, they find themselves in a voting booth simply pulling the lever of the guy whose only substance was to tell you all that you wanted to hear, and avoided the conflict of having to look closely at yourself and making the tough decision... Which is called "commitment", and the "win/lose/or draw" risk involved with making a commitment...
The rest is just a ladies sewing circle...
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Have fun ladies...
125 comments:
@Bertie
(from other thread)
"I read a while ago in some science mag that person suffering depression are generally able to predict the chances of success more accurately than "normal" people, it seems a wild optimism is hard-wired into the normal human brain"...
LOL - As soon as I lost all hope I felt much better...
@bertie
I say that "tongue in cheek"...
My reasoning is that as far as HOPE is concerned... Nobody is ever going to get their HOPES fulfilled by another person, or another persons agenda...
Why? because it's the EASY way out...
I've been involved in fitness all my life and can assure you that the only ones who ever find true happiness are the ones who sweat, suffer, and have pain and scars in the process...
There's no free lunch...
It never has to take you to the original goal you'd imagined to be satisfactory... You can find some other kind of contentment that you never knew about before in the process...
The only ones who end up NEVER getting fulfilled in the process are the ones who don't apply the effort...
This is exemplary in the bubbling disillusionment with OBAMA... People were quick to jump on the idea that someone was going to give them HOPE... That they didn't have to work for it themselves...
"Obama will pay for my gas & mortgage"
I make a joke about that statement all the time... Not to criticize Peggy Joseph herself, but to illustrate the LARGER picture... WHICH WAS... In one way or another... Peggy Joseph was expressing EXACTLY what everyone was hoping to get... Something for nothing...
Not a LITERAL payment of their gas or mortgage... But a FREE "something", that things were just going to magically CHANGE without having to alter behavior or lifestyle...
I will grant you CV,that you are not a fence-sitter.
Bertie
Overall payrolls down 54K, private payrolls up 67K
Bertie
Risk-on baby?
August Total Non Farm Payrolls Come At -54K On Consensus Of -105K
Ahoy Polloi!
"I will grant you CV,that you are not a fence-sitter.
Bertie"
LOL - I never really liked the ideas of poles around my nether regions...
Classic post CV.
As for futures - wow.
After 5th wave extensions retracements tend to go to previous level of 2nd wave of that 5th - which is 1099.77. 1110 is also the .786 retracement. If this count is correct, there should not be much time before a major down turn. Any sideways or break of 1110 would put it in doubt for me but again, only a break of 1129.24 can rule it out 100%.
Trying out the new avatar...
Nice!
@McHappy
Look at it this way... It took 38 market days for sentiment to GRIND the RSI to it most recent high reading down to it's lowest level reading, then re-test that DIVERGENCE settling on the 1040 price level...
Where was the S&P the last time sentiment was this high?
Exactly where we're going to open this morning...
How many days did it take to go from 1040 back to this level?
basically 2... Wednesday, then NADA yesterday, but today it's going to open on that number...
38 days grind down, 2 days up to recover (on a basic sideways move on a low volume summer)...
You do the math...
>> I make a joke about that statement all the time... Not to criticize Peggy Joseph herself, but to illustrate the LARGER picture... WHICH WAS... In one way or another... Peggy Joseph was expressing EXACTLY what everyone was hoping to get... Something for nothing...
"Something for nothing"?
Do you mean that voting for one party or another makes no difference in our lives? The laws these parties might pass would make no difference in our lives? Transferring some purchasing power from rich to poor would make no difference? Invading and occupying countries doesn't affect finances and hence quality of life at home?
"Something for nothing"? Who wins elections makes absolutely no difference?
Private employment.
I hate to admit it, but LB is looking very smart.
(I'm sure he'll get over it....)
Get ready for my top! Yikes! Looks as tho i can get out of my gold short today.. Great post, CV.. : )
mrtopstep - 11 min ago
if you like risk = there could be one more surge up 1104-1106 area res first time up USE STOP in front of 1108 $$
@wunsa
What I'm SAYING is that REAL progress happens via grassroots movements and/or sheer individualism...
One person, taking a step (and not waiting for a LAW to be passed that they have to follow)...
Think of these things...
What if, tomorrow, everyone just pulled all their money out of banks & investments and demanded cash for their holdings (and/or declared bankruptcy if they were indebted)?
My guess is that POSITIVE change (the kind we discuss all the time on this blog) would ensue rather quickly... A LOT faster than passing any LAWS on FIN REG bills...
What if, tomorrow, everyone just started turning off lights, and riding their bike around, or commuting to work via public transportation...
Very soon, the demand for energy would drop sharply... Sharply enough, probably for that to be reflected in capital markets...
A lot of chaos would also ensue, in that many goods would no longer be brought to market, & shortages would occur... But that's not a problem... People would find OTHER ways to adapt & cope...
Probably 2/3rds of the world already lives like this... It's not a problem of human ingenuity...
These are just quick examples, but what I'm SAYING is that people have not come to grips with the idea that CHANGE has to come from within (that is - the personal demand that they place on INFRASTRUCTURE to deliver them their daily bread)...
@karen (9:20)
Just above that is a pretty big chart gap in the 1116-1120 area...
I'm content to let just let this thing exhaust itself... Not feeling particularly "squeezed" here...
There was a lot of talk on ZH about a bunch of hedge funds being behind the 8-ball going into the end of September...
They talk about needing to "lever up" and "double down" to make their hay... AND FAST...
That always ends well, doesn't it?
CV
What's your thoughts on Thorium for nuclear reactors? From what I've read it doesn't leave radioactive waste to be disposed of. The USG chose not to use it because it doesn't produce enriched uranium for weapon use. It also has a higher output than uranium. Would this be a positive first step in rebuilding our infrastructure?
@Amen
From the limited knowledge I have on that, it appears, at first blush, to be a decent idea...
In aggregate... I feel that out main PROBLEM is that we erroneously take the SUPPLY SIDE of every issue...
We need to examine the DEMAND side first...
We need to REDUCE DEMAND on things to heal this world before we tackling the ideas to bring more efficient methods to the infrastructure level...
I spy Karen's top...
I've said this 1000x times before...
The ANSWER "is NOT" bringing a billion Chinese & Indians up to Western standards of consumption...
It's REDUCING the close to BILLION Europeans & Americans to lesser aggregates of consumption...
"It's REDUCING the close to BILLION Europeans & Americans to lesser aggregates of consumption... "
That sounds like communism.
@Beck
reducing consumption of resources IS NOT, the last time I checked, a political ideology...
Nice try!
@Amen
Well this is wonderful...
Now that THE ECONOMY is back to being flush again (in 13 trading hours)... and it's adding jobs in the private sector and all that...
Looks like you won't need to put up that QE2 banner anymore...
We won't need it, right?
As Forrest Gump would say:
"One less thing"
CV
I should make the banner a whole page. One report does not change the fact that the economy is still going downhill fast.
"Hurricane Earl"... coming soon to batter a beach near you! :-)
@Amen
I don't know if you read this thread or not... But this is what I was referring to earlier...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trimtabs-reports-percentage-hedge-funds-expecting-raise-leverage-september-surges
Bulls are playing a very dangerous game here letting the market levitate like this...
The slightest "hiccup" would send this thing reeling...
---
Judge Smails
It's easy to grin / When your ship comes in / And you've got the stock market beat. / But the man worthwhile, / Is the man who can smile, / When his shorts are too tight in the seat.
>> What I'm SAYING is that REAL progress happens via grassroots movements and/or sheer individualism...
"Real" progress *also* happens if the people we elect make better laws. E.g., "reform Wall Street during an economic crisis" rather than "reform health care". "Spend on homegrown energy research" instead of "pay off private bondholders". Tax the rich more and less so the poor.
Is it "something for nothing" because voting is easy and because we wanted something out of it?
Why, *yes* it is. But, so it goes with any management changes. Given the same set of resources (people, material), "good" management makes better use of resources than "bad" management. You could say that management is the science of getting something for nothing. "All" it takes is a little better thinking.
Pursuing "something for nothing" through better management is a legitimate goal.
I don't see enough management changes. But, please don't "pile on" by belittling the pursuit.
>> One person, taking a step (and not waiting for a LAW to be passed that they have to follow)...
The Dick Fuld's of the world will wait for a law (and enforcement). And there are enough people willing to work with/for them, if there's enough in it for them.
To "complete" the "real progress" that many upstanding citizens seek/make, it's often necessary to pass laws and enforce them. Otherwise, you end up with "tragedy of the commons", free riders problems, Gresham's Dynamic, and what not...
CV
I read that over at ZH. The more they lever up on risk the faster they delever when the market turns on them.
@wunsacon
I see all of your points...
The problem, IN MY MIND, is that "movements" tend to NOT GET GOING unless they are simple...
SIMPLICITY
It happens all the time in fitness (which, like everything else, is a microcosm of everything macro)...
If you try to start a new type of class for students... The class CONCEPTS that people invariably are drawn to are very simple...
- no complex movements
- easy to understand format
- friendly instructor
- high margin of error
This is where I feel ALL POLITICS fails... This is where I believe LAWS fail...
They're too complicated...
These "bills" are thousands of pages (that the legislators admittedly don't read), and we only find out what was in them later, which requires a whole new set of legislation to FIX it...
The answer to all that is MORE?
So YES... In a way, I propose "inaction"...
People who do simple things in their own lives (so as NOT to place demands and burdens on society)...
The less demands that are required to be supplied BY SOCIETY to the INDIVIDUAL, the less complicated things will become...
That's how I see it...
@Amen
That's the whole point...
IOW - If we're talking about this move from 1040 being largely due to leverage, and some degree of "short covering"...
Then it's very risky...
Bulls are going to have a HUGE weight to carry for an entire month here (maybe more) to flip things back in the other direction...
Not too hard to do for a few hours on a Friday before Labor Day...
Come see me later on in the month... If you still have the endurance to carry that load, I'll applaud you for it...
@wunsacon
Please tell me that this isn't your idea of governments coming to bear on private citizens in the name of raising money for SOCIAL programs...
Russians urged to smoke and drink more to help the nation
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/russians_urged_nation_smoke_and_5wlCek8ijJwjYliTQ4mGAN#ixzz0yTbfv825
"Russia's finance minister Alexei Kudrin urged citizens Wednesday to smoke and drink more to help lift tax revenues for spending on social services.
"If you smoke a pack of cigarettes, that means you are giving more to help solve social problems such as boosting demographics, developing other social services and upholding birth rates," Kudrin said, quoted by the Interfax news agency.
"People should understand: Those who drink, those who smoke are doing more to help the state," he said.
@CV 10:26
WOW! I've never read such a thing.
My word! I am being bombarded with labor day sale emails.. as NEVER before..
CV, pls.. your 10:26.. you don't actually believe that, do you?? it's from the NYPOST, for crying out loud.. believe 1/2 of what you see, 1/4 of what you read, and none of what you hear !!
@karen
For the sake of the "anonymity" of your friend... I deleted those posts... Thanx for the confirmation, and give my fond regards...
You never know these days the people who seem to enjoy prowling around digging around in the closets of other people...
@karen
It''s on EVERY news feature...
CBS... all of them...
@karen
I picked it up first off of MSNBC...
Thanks for the deletions.. i was going to do that myself.. got distracted this morning.. so many emails!!
Well, I'm sorry I still find it unbelievable.. that Russian comment.. maybe he was being sarcastic.
Dunno...
peculiar statement anyway
@karen
I'm not making this statement directly at you (to spark a debate or a response) but I'm just going to illustrate a point which ties in several thoughts expressed above (for the sake of anyone else reading)...
WUNSACON was talking about the "rich to poor" issue... loosely, I suppose, how that connects to taxation...
You know, the tired old "lets tax the rich more to help the poor" debate (which never works because the rich always find loopholes)...
I've said before that I actually FAVOR something like a CONSUMPTION tax (a VAT)...
Lot's of people hate that idea (and I admit that it has many flaws), but doing something like that, I believe, has the net effect of moving things closer to the desired outcome (whether that is actually "calculated correctly in reports is a different issue)...
Anyway... essentially a VAT tax is a tax on the rich (because the more that things cost, the more taxes you pay to own them)... This produces a chain of events...
- Probably LESS items are actually produced at the top tier levels because most can't afford them AND pay the tax
- It probably cuts out a lot of waste, and/or re-directs investment towards things that people actually can afford (and probably make more sense to buy anyway)
- It also probably pushes a lot of "commerce" & transaction to the black market (this is done all over Europe)... Nothing really WRONG with that because people tend to get what they truly desire anyway (and in a more efficient way)... I mean, is it necessary to go to a jewelry store and buy a ring, when your neighbor makes jewelry for a hobby and you trade them your homemade cookies & pies for something which they would have had to go to the store to buy?
- The effect of all this is to STARVE most of the middleman costs (who are essentially the banks & toll collectors)
- governments would be funded NOT by the "productivity" of their citizens, but on their excess consumption...
Again... Not a perfect world, but I think something along those lines would be preferable to what's in place now...
ECRI Declines, Passes Below "Double Dip" -10% Threshold Again
I am about to go out and play...my usual Friday thingy now at my age. Hell of day yesterday in the Salt Mine.
I read CR and the BLS report this morning. >300k new temporary workers, or underemployed workers. CR calls this bad news. I would too.
WSJ comments today on the "Lost Jobs Machine"
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110567/it-isnt-just-lost-jobs-its-the-lost-jobs-machine
and it appears to me if we can't make jobs in the US like we used to them one of our major parameters has to change...
...I have only given this a few minutes of thought, so I may come back to it tonight. But I think tariffs may have some place here. Hear me out..
Consider if keeping the Yuan weak is a form of hidden tariff....Our goods cost more in China, their goods cost less here. But there are NO countries who are not trying to manipulate their currency, including the Swiss. And since we are the world's currency, it is hard for Benny to debase its value, as we've seen.
...Perhaps it is time to add small tariffs and increase them slowly. If we announced our intentions would it cause a trade war as it did supposedly in the GD? I don't know, but we must be able to create jobs here, and that means manufacturing.
...the manufacturing jobs weren't pretty last month, either...
>> The answer to all that is MORE?
My (biased) answer (i.e., "preference") is "less-but-different".
>> Russians urged to smoke and drink more to help the nation
Well, no, I don't support that, CV. But, I did drink some vodka last night. And I stayed at a Holiday Inn. So...
;-)
Later, taters...heading to the salt mine.
I am all about a consumption tax.. a flat tax on income (if we must have income tax) and a fat consumption tax that can't be skirted around unless you barter/exchange.. and that happens now anyway..
not on food, however.. food, soap, toothpaste or medicine.
@karen
Exactly as I see it...
I don't smoke...
But I consume my share of beer & wine...
If they wanted to DOUBLE prices on that (and use the surplus to pay for programs, I wouldn't fight it)...
Same with gasoline... As far as I'm concerned they could slap a 100% tax on that & I wouldn't bitch about it...
Personally, i love the idea of $5 gasoline..
I don't think I am for more taxes on consumption. I think a 4% unemployment rate would heal a lot of open wounds, and that requires us to make more things here. Think about it...
If a consumption tax added, say, 10% to the cost of a shirt, wouldn't it be better to have a tariff that allowed that shirt to be made in the US and cost 10% more than it does now.
Both ways the shirt costs more, but if it is manufactured here you have a job creation, not just a tax...
@karen
A lot of my POV on those comes from my 'bottom line' points that I was making earlier...
CONSUME LESS RESOURCES
Concerned about the environment? CLR
Want to bring jobs back to America? CLR
Want politicians to stop wasting money? CLR
Want to stick it to the banks? CLR
Want to end the need to fight overseas wars (which are invariably fought to secure resources)? CLR
Want to make "alternative renewable energies" viable (because less aggregate demand would make the switchover have a greater impact)? CLR
Tariffs are an anathema to me too. But this may call for a new paradigm. We are in a constant economic battle with countries who would like to continue to have a trade advantage with us like Japan, China, Germany, and so forth.
If currency manipulation is hard for us because of our dollar as the world's currency, then in the end, we still have to find a way to return manufacturing jobs to the US. It isn't a theory at this point, it is a cold hard fact.
McF -- CAT was back over $70 this morning...
From CR this morning:
"From the BLS report:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 331,000 over the month to 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) was at 8.9 million in August. This increase was bad news."
..So again, part of the jobs picture was an increase in part time employment...so how would you make it palatable for a large scale return of manufacturing to the US? Shirts, tires, lamps, televisions...how would you do it?
@Bruce
This is oversimplified...
But the unions have themselves to blame for sending jobs overseas...
Part of the cost of production is the promise of extensive benefits and compensation packages...
I'm not exonerating or absolving the "executive class" of some large companies (who mismanage & steal from the cookie jar)...
But can't you see that the whole issue has a common element? That is...
SIZE (and complexity)
Small businesses don't have to worry about pay packages, stock prices, & unions... They run their businesses lean & effective... make a profit if it works... Get mowed over if it doesn't...
Everytime you hear the GOVERNMENT say that it's doing this or that to SAVE OR CREATE JOBS it's a bunch of horseshit...
Prosperity will rise when they actually get out of the way not adding DEBT to the burden in order to enrich the excess fat that's already in the system...
A person doesn't start losing weight the minute their card swipes and their $50 gym membership initiation is activated...
Instead, they start losing weight when they start exercising... Which can be done with or without a gym or dorky exercise videos (like the ones I was determined to stop doing the minute I realized that they served no purpose towards the REAL matter at hand)...
CV.. is mrtopstep our kind of guy, or what?!
#futures anyone ready for a nice cold beer? Its pretty much over here 10 handle winner today leave it alone now
Carney having a go at TWSWB today:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38953845
I agree CV, that this is a simple question about a much more complex problem. But the fact remains that countries like Germany, Japan, China..have decided that export of manufactured goods is a vital part of their economy, and they have made positive decisions to keep it that way.
If we decide that the small business owner is the model we follow, then countries who have decided they want to manufacture tires will have the entire industry.
I am not a fan of unions either as you know, but public unions are the problem. Private unions wouldn't be UNLESS you had a government who bailed them out when they bankrupted an industry.
I still feel we need large scale manufacturing here, and not just in the high tech segment. If our labor costs are too high, then we should consider tariffs. For I fear the housing job engine has thrown a shoe permanently, and I don't see its replacement on the horizon.
What would happen with tariffs? The snap answer or something different this time...I'll give it more thought.
poor argument in my mind..
oh, nic, i've decided to segue out of coffee myself.. how are you doing with it? i'm just having less and less each day..
my 12:10 was in reply to Nic's 12:04.. the attempted takedown of BR by Carney..
@karen
CV <3's topstep...
I should save what I'm about to say here for a thread topic, but since it's a lazy, "pre-holiday" weekend, I'm going to say it now...
I've been reading, as I always do, various blogs & comment threads...
Naturally, after a two day, 65 point rise in the S&P you have a heft amount of comments made by your classic "flip-floppers" (who always manage to get themselves stuck in the stream of the latest momentum move)...
- ECRI indicators are turning down
- Jobs aren't getting any better (after trillions of stimulus spent)
- The debt situation is worse
- Foreclosures & bankruptcies are on the rise
- Citizens are "balking" at any ideas of new stimulus or bailouts
There are a million things I could mention... Arguably, things are WORSE than they were in 2008, yet there are no more drugs for the patient...
We happen to be in a window here that PRICES (in stocks could rise - if only, for certain TECHNICAL reasons)... But NONE of those price increases are going to change any of the underlying economic conditions...
DOW 36,000 is not going to solve any problems people... In fact, it would probably make things worse, because it would STALL the point of recognition that eventually needs to come into being...
If PRICES do manage to levitate from here, it will only be because of pure SPECULATION & LEVERAGE brought about by criminals & thieves who are playing the game with the help from Washington...
The thing is, the speculators and thieves already know this... They're only playing this game because it's the only game actually TO play... When it's over, their world folds up its tent for awhile...
Some will attempt to beat the others to the exits... The only thing to be decided at this point is who starts running first...
The retail investor is already out of this market for the large part... That was the game played in the last two "crashes" of the decade... Bid prices up... Get JOHNNY to get excited... Dump the whole bag on him...
There's no Johnny this time... All the "pumpers" (who have been working with the house money since March '09), have gotten things as high as possible... They've allowed for the "correction" phase to play itself out, and now they're banking on the idea that you can convince to get Johnny back in because the TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS say so...
Johnny is STILL not in...
So the last step is to make one last desperate attempt (which means that they're playing chicken with each other in the hopes that as they do, Johnny will get interested)...
The problem is that they're living in a dream world... They don't understand Johnny's plight AT ALL... So the "point of recognition" will come when they all look at each other, and finally decide that they'd better make a hasty exit...
So... Prices may go up... but it doesn't change anything... and the game from here on out is getting very dangerous...
CV.. thanks for the dissertation.. I do agree with you! I was referring to the "cold beer" comment, however! laughing.
I would LOVE to see how fast you type, btw : )
Karen, agree poor argument but interesting that someone so high profile challenges him.
I am 100% switched from coffee to green tea :) How about that, I still crave it, I might have one on the weekend for a treat.
I'd characterize the situation now as being more "dot.com"-ish, than the way it was in 2008...
The "dot.com" time was punctuated by speculation in stock PRICES...
How much are people willing to pay on the SPECULATION that this vapor business is eventually going to do something...
It's different now, but it has the same elements... The MULTIPLES aren't nearly the same, but the attitude is... Many of these businesses are probably going to GO OUT OF BUSINESS on the next downturn... So right now, bets are being made on the winners & losers... (That's how "Hindenburg Omens" are triggered)...
You don't get the aspects that trigger Hindenburg Omens unless there really is belief that the system will fall apart, so that the investment picture settles on that idea and attempts to pick winners & losers...
In 2008, rather, the HOPE was for continued growth... When the AMOUNT of growth was priced in (and levered to the hilt), the reduction in leverage accelerated the crash...
Of course much of that hope for GROWTH sat on top of the housing bubble, but the theory was the same...
Now... any GROWTH has to be created artificially (through more debt)...
Growth isn't going to happen if stock prices go up...
In the attempt to create the "illusion" of growth, bankers & politicians will continue to pursue riskier & riskier behavior...
Which will, in turn, produce the next crash...
Nic.. that is wonderful! you did that so fast.. and yes, treating yourself once in a while would be good..
i think BR has just gotten too big for his britches and it is coming back at him! BR will probably just have a field day with Carney now, tho..
CV.. in 08 you had everyone and their shadow leveraged to the moon.. there was no real money in the game..
of course.. i don't quite think we are out of that scenario yet with mark to make believe, etc..
apparently we've gone nowhere since 2001: mrtopstep
coming across the screens Pakistan Taliban leader say attacks in US Europe will be carried out very soon... $$
sometimes i do wonder if the earth will be habitable by the end of 2012..
7.4 in Christchurch!!!
it'll be interesting to see how long it takes for those waves to reach this coast..
"there was no real money in the game"
and there is now?
---
I think what I'm saying is that for the BATON to be carried on further (from here), it'll have to be a phenomenon of out and out price speculation...
At the beginning of the rally in '09, there was HOPE (which none of us here believed), that the stimulus & QE would produce GROWTH...
It didn't... (as we told them it wouldn't)...
So now that they've come to that point of realization (which spent the entire summer doing & proving)...
The only thing left is out & out price speculation...
"Let's see if we can get people to believe something is going on simply because the stock market is rising"...
The problem is... Johnny is a decade older now and just wants his money back... It won't take as long as it did back in 1999-2000 for that game to end itself...
Frankly... It may have already ended... We'll find out soon enough...
I'm looking at your TOP again, baby...
All over the wires Goldman closing principle trading shop .... wow
It's been hours since we had any saucy icons, Karen....
from ZH commenter: Keep in mind, people: as quickly as the banks are shutting US prop desks, they're expanding Asian prop desks. Getting around the Volcker Rule (punishing the audacity of regulation). So expect overnight ramping to expand.
We remain in favour of ramping, Karen.
In fact we like afternoon ramping as much as overnight ramping.
How do you like this kind of analysis?
'Bullish History' Suggests S&P at 1500 Soon: Analyst
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38990247
'A Bullish History'
In addition, Kaufman noted that the market traditionally rallies after the second-year presidential cycle going into the third.
“Historically, you have on average in the last seven cycles, a 50 percent increase from the second-year bottom, which, if the bottom was July 1 at 1,010 [on the S&P 500], that average will take you up to 1,500. It’s very hard to argue with that type of a bullish history.”
---
Let's take that out for a spin shall we?
The LAST 7 cycles were (previous to 2008):
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
Which means the "lows" of the 2nd year in were made in:
2006, 2002, 1998, 1994, 1990, 1986, 1982
now follow this with your eyes a little, I'm going to list those again, then list the NEXT YEAR right below...
2006, 2002, 1998, 1994, 1990, 1986, 1982
2007, 2003, 1999, 1995, 1991, 1987, 1983
All you really need to consider is the fact as to whether the "low" happened to be at the trough of a recessionary timeframe, OR, if the eventual rebound was a normal reaction, or otherwise happened to reflect a BUBBLE period in stocks...
Quick review...
2007 - BUBBLE (all time high in stocks)
2002 - DOT COM BUBBLE BURST (reactionary low)
1998 - LTCM crisis (low abberation, plus 99 bubble)
1994 - recessionary low/95 dot com begins
1990 - recessionary low
1987 - stock market high (prior to megacrash)
1982 - generational low in stocks
So to sit there and use these as AVERAGES, and then do a "model" that says we should be at 1500 because we hit 1010 this summer is about as kooky to me as saying stocks will go up for the next two months because the elections are on the way...
Who knows? we may hit 1,500...
But I could probably pull out some research to tell you that everytime the Yankees win the World Series, then equities are "x" percent higher next year as well...
EWI free week for Asian-Pacific and European short term updates until 9/10 ...
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeweek/estu_astu/
@2s2b
check your e-mail this weekend to get your LOG IN & password for the draft on Monday, OK?
OK. Thanks.
The NAR is serving free kool aid.. "10 market facts for uncertain times"
http://www.realtor.org/research/research/market_facts_20100901
i think this article came out a few minutes too soon with regard to the GS news..
http://247wallst.com/2010/09/03/closing-prop-trading-fiduciary-neglect-jpm-gs-bac-c-ms/
I am off. England football match is on at 3.
So, LB reckons, TUESDAY, we get a bit of a JOHNNY HOUR.
WEDNESDAY they are trying to sell 10y, at 1pm.
So we see that as a bit of a short.
Basically we just want to WATCH and see a lot of KAREN'S TOP.
Karen,
I've given up oil months ago. What is your take on it down over $1 today?
mrtopstep
The STOP O METER is pointing higher again buy stops up to 1106 in the spoo
I'm officially waiting for 1110 to get tagged.
Bye Karen....
and don't forget to bring the lingerie icons next week...!
GS would rather give up principle prop trading than Bank Holding Co (0%free money and taxpayer backstops) hmmm.........
mchappy.. wish i could be of more help on oil.. i had some shares of dto to sell above 80 and never put the order in!! dto beat yesterday's high, btw..
crude is still in a downtrend but the dollar sure isn't helping : )
looking at uso.. 31 is on the table altho it might go to 34 first!
Nic is the one to ask about actual crude trading, btw..
McHappy here is my view: http://stk.ly/9MC4HM
Evil Speculator has pretty much concluded that P3 as we imagine it is off the table for the near future. Haven't read the EWFF that came out today yet. Did I mention my addiction to subscription services?
@McHappy
It's hard NOT seeing it tag 1110 at this point (today or not, another story)...
Props to AmenRa for saying we'd be back at 1110 just a few days ago (after failing to get thru 1140 for the 3rd time...
Never thought it would be this fast did you Amen?
@jennifer
Did I mention my addiction to subscription services?
---
What about your addiction to mentioning your addiction to SS? - jk :-)
Just figured it out...
At this trajectory, we'll be at ALL TIME HIGHS in 7 trading days...
Another take on that is that we're going to have to get to 1150 next week, just to get back on the same trajectory we were on from the March '09 lows thru the last time we hit 1120...
Bulls have some work to do still...
i think i'll go cut up some watermelon : )
@karen
After you get done cutting up watermelon...
How does your eye see this little H&S setup...
NEW CHART IN THREAD
SLV hitting hew highs...
CV.. i've had my eyes on that H&S, but yours is a prettier version..
CV
A month to get there maybe but not in a few days. Sheesh.
@karen
I'm glad to hear you say you like that H&S...
I'll tell you why... You are a lot PICKIER about those kinds of patterns than I tend to be... You use a lot more criteria than I do...
That's a GOOD thing... (because it conforms to my instincts towards CAUTION)...
I guess GS doesn't like being more than 5% below its weekly SMA(89)...
do i know how to pick a top, or what?! why, why, why.. just let's leave this area.. it is torture!!
@karen/amen
Anyway - In any case... One of the reasons I like the pattern THERE in particular is that it is another stumbling block for "flip-floppy" BULL/BEARS who talk about crashes when we are at 1040, and now are calling for new highs after two days...
My point is... There are so many "technical patterns"... I'll list a few here...
- 1110 - The .009 fibo re-trace from 1220
- 1116/20 - a chart gap
- The RSI's (and other momentum indicators which have already balanced out the waves of the recent lows)
- EW's
- FIBO levels
- Those H&S patterns
There are, quite simply a MINEFIELD of things that the market has to do at this moment to push higher...
What's funny, is that many of these things are all clustered very close to the same zone (the zone we're in right now)...
So to say that it took 2 whole trading days to come from FALLING OFF A CLIFF, right back to these levels, I think, says a lot...
It's almost as if the market is making one last gasp to push higher, and if it fails, that's it...
The luxury for a bear is... It's not difficult (it's not COLD STEEL) to sit here and fade these levels)...
i should mention that "or what?!" phrase i use is a personal pleasure of mine taken from my father-in-law, who knew how to tell a story like nobody else. he overheard someone in a Montana bar use it and thot it was the funniest thing he ever heard.. and the way he told it, i now do, too! it makes me smile, so i use it as often as I can : )
CV
For me the market is stuck in its monthly 3LB range (1030.71 - 1186.69) with 1108.70 being the midpoint. The midpoint is where the bullish/bearish sentiment changes direction. Using fibo on the monthly 3LB then 1127.11 is the 61.8% retrace. So it has to get above 1108 first or the sentiment is still bearish (no matter what the MSM says or fake economic reports say).
@karen
I have that fondness for the phrase...
"I kno right?"
My ex-girlfriend used to say that and I thot it was the funniest thing I ever heard...
So I adopted it (even tho I think it's corny as hell)...
@Amen Ra
Yeah... take that a step further and say that anything under 1186 on a monthly close is sideways city...
"You kno right"? - lol
CV
If it gets above the 61.8% I'd start trading with a bullish bias. I'm just sayin'
not sideways city : (
zerohedge says "Get Your Risk On Before The Double Dip!" http://bit.ly/bFYI4k
I'm wondering if those buy stops will get hit...
Okay.. my son signed up for itunes "Ping"
Guess whose email all the requests to follow him are coming to ??
So when does the prop shop for GS & JPM open in Asia?
@Amen
...or the Cayman Islands
ooooh, I'd move to the caymans!
@Amen
"If it gets above the 61.8% I'd start trading with a bullish bias. I'm just sayin'"
---
I'd tend to agree with you... But put it this way...
61.8% of the April close to the June close is right around the same zone we're talking about... 1128 or thereabouts...
I doubt I flip bullish if that happened... But I'd go into a holding period...
I'd just wait it out and see where it went from there... It might take many months in that even to carve out support...
Hard to believe anything nowadays has the patience to do that kind of diligence... It feels more like pile of tinder waiting for a match to me...
CV
Not so much flip bullish but take small positions in the new direction.
Let's see what Tuesday brings before we start counting our bulls.
Alright everyone...
Have a nice long weekend...
AMEN RA will have the wrap (which I'll probably let go as the weekend thread for anyone checkin in)...
I'll also post the FF log in there (but for you PLAYERS - I'm going to send your LOG IN & PASSWORDS directly to your e-mails)...
Draft is Monday Night at 7:30PM (which is Labor Day Monday)...
I haven't talked to Andy T, but for all I know thus far he'll be up with a post... Sunday or Monday...
Andy, if you're reading this let me know your plans, otherwise I'll see you in the draft room...
ben, you too, ahab... etc.
I'll be up with a post on Tuesday Morning so we can watch stocks get pushed to DOW 36,000...
In that moment... The unemployment rate will be back to 4%... Your home will have tripled in price and you'll be looking for an upgrade... You'll have a fancy BMW that runs on beer (which will be distributed free from your home faucet, all your favorite teams & alma maters, will be winning, you'll have 3% body fat, You'll have free healthcare, global warming will be solved, there will no more wars, and unicorns will dance around crapping skittles...
I'll start thinking of new blog names in honor of that occurrence :-)
quote
"and unicorns will dance around crapping skittles..."
BWAHAHAHAHA!!!
Almost forgot that yesterdays candle closed the gap on the daily chart (8/11/10-8/12/10).
Will post on Monday Night instead of Sunday and am pumped for the draft.
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