A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: What happened? I happened. I enjoy a confused market. Allows me to wreck more havoc.
SPXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Above the SMA(21) & SMA(55). Holding above 1078.87 (1.618 fib from low). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1047.22). QE2infinity.
DXYDoji day. Held the the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 83.26).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Now below the SMA(21) & SMA(144). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 26.44). Trending down on daily 3LB.
GOLDBullish short day. Bearish harami failed. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Yet is still heading towards the 0% (we'll see). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1234.20).
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. Now above the SMA(55). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2672).
JNKBullish short day. Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(21), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
10YR YIELDBullish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has held. Midpoint above EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Closed the second gap (1 more left). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.85).
AUDJPYSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(144). Tested and failed SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.8121).
DJ TRANS AVGBullish long day. Back above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4082.51). Above weekly 3LB reversal price.
WTIBullish short day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 71.63).
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 9.2.10
Yesterday's FLIGHT FROM QUANTITY continued and the STEEPENER was extended today as inwestors shunned the long bonds they so eagerly embraced just last week. HY outperformed IG as spreads tightened a little. 2s10s got out there, to about 216 at one point, I think.
Corpies: LQD -0.13%; AGG -0.13%; JNK 0.18%; HYG 0.16%;
Govies: TLT -1.06%; IEI -0.14%; TIP -0.19%
Hedgies: TBT 2.17%
We did nothing in bonds - except to wish we had kept our shorts on overnight, but in this market sleeping naked means never having to say sorry you lost your profit in the morning.... actually we slapped on an equity short, responding to that little voice that reminds us we just made 5% in two days and it is Thursday.
The Friday before a long weekend usually sees a safety trade, so we see Treasuries being bought and a generally risk-off environment unless OBAMA has created a MILLION jobs overnight. We would probably fade the safety move into tomorrow's close as we think the long bond is a delicious short just at the moment.
29 comments:
Ra...
I sent you an e-mail...
There you go... CV needed a new avatar (since the ELECTIONS are coming up & the GOVERNMENT MANIPULATORS are in full force holding the market up)...
Are we all not adults here? Can't we all just disagree without getting personal and petty? A good blog should have some spirited discussion without the personal pettiness. At least I think so anyway. We must be getting bored or just loopy or something.
OK, I'm off to do CV's swimmer's warm up workout at the gym..... ;-)
And that was a joke!! If only I were THAT in shape.
OK, time for a cease fire, folks. The personal stuff isn't necessary.
@Manny
"personal stuff"?
The last time I checked...
- The POTUS
- Bernanke
- Tim Geithner
- Nancy Pelosi
- Chris Dodd
- Barney Frank
- Jean Claude Trichet
- Brian Wesbury
- Bob Pisani
- Jim Cramer
- Maria Bartiromo
- Erin Burnett
- TWSWB
Have not found it necessary to do a Google Search on an internet name (which I use openly, instead of hiding behind my dog)...
Then come around and make jokes about the 80's hairstyle that I shared with:
- Bono
- Sting
- David Bowie
- Eddie Van Halen
- David Lee Roth
or OTHERS
Not that "that" (the hairstyle of the era) is really the thing that's creepy...
Instead - It's the idea that someone is so insecure to the point that that's their only weapon of defense (deflecting or CHANGING the argument), as your hero has already done with:
- Andy T
- MCF
- Bruce
AND OTHERS
---
Ask yourself if it is WRONG that CV "lampoons" the idea of a thread which states that CAPITAL MARKETS are NOT the subject of CORRELATION or CAUSATION by the GOVERNMENT MANIPULATORS...
Is there something wrong with that?
Is it any worse than CV telling you that the POTUS or Fed Chair are MF-ing liars, and are cheating you as a citizen from personal freedom & progress?
According to you... For the sake of "peace" & "cease fire", you'd prefer to live with these ASININE ideas (just so you have an dozen or so INTERNET BUDDIES to slap palms with & share travel stories & dog pictures with)?...
The blog which gives you that "warm & fuzzy" feeling exists because it was intercepted (from a former GREAT blog host), & tries desperately & thinly to maintain some kind of "tangential" connection to capital markets because you happen to have a VERY GOOD chart technician (Amen Ra), and bond trader (LB), that happen, on a personal level, to be entertained by the "cut & paste" thread posts that your stable of authors manages to ladel out of the assembly line soup bowl... That's good for you... HELL YEA!
Let me offer this...
With the exception of the times when CAPITAL MARKETS are TOTALLY ABSURD (which is often)... I reserve the right, as an author, to incessantly LAMPOON the absurdity of what I observe... It doesn't START or STOP with the blog of your heroes...
My efforts (in "spirit"), are no different from:
- The Onion
- The Colbert Report
- John Stewart
- David Letterman
- any SNL skit
Sorry... but I don't live in that world...
Got thin skin? Don't publish anything (capital markets related)...
OR BETTER YET
Change the debate to a puppy & kitten chow travelocity extravaganza...
That way, you'd be SURE to never hear from the likes of CV again... Or have ideas thereto lampooned in his own personal arena...
As an example
CV said...
@Thor
CV is used to having his mere presence interpreted as an invasion...
No doubt, a fault in character...
August 23, 2010 1:07 PM
Thor said...
CV - I understand, well I for one am trying to move beyond that ;-)
Chet - why do you keep deleting my comments??? I'm making an effort to end this once and for all . . .
@Thor
I haven't deleted any of your posts...
I haven't even been at the screen for the past hour (since my 7:15) post to Jeff...
I just came back...
For the record... I did delete several comments from the previous THREAD...
One was from MUTT (which I acknowledged to him beforehand that I was deleting - apologized to him for doing so - but referenced that should anyone care to read those comments that they were already part of public record on your blog)...
The other (4) comments that I deleted were ones I'd posted myself... Which were a list of snipes (towards yours truly) that I cut and pasted FROM your blog...
@Thor
For the record... AGAIN
I might as well "air this one out" (because I'm sick of this too)...
You know FOR A FACT that I've been very polite towards you ON YOUR BLOG with regards to recent posts...
I've engaged with a thoughtful response to the subject matter...
However, recently it seems, LB has taken to playing some kind of CAT & MOUSE game between the blogs...
It is clearly evident...
On it's own, it might seem casual and/or "admissable", but it happens to come on the heels of some bitter comments that were recently exchanged, by you, towards some of the people who I hold in HIGH ESTEEM on THIS blog, and who offer invaluable insight with regards to their market opinions & insights...
Frankly... If it comes down to "defending" them, or "lampooning" you... I'd choose the latter...
I'm not worried about the tragedy or risk factor associated with that... Thus, if I find "compelling" subject matter (on a day like today - where markets were not only dull and stupid, but PREDICTABLY dull and stupid), I'll spare no expense to use it...
In the thread I used today, I found the "notions" you'd expressed the other day (which I'd read) ASININE...
I did NOT bother you by going to your blog and polluting your comment thread with my arguments... God knows that, Andy, Bruce, and ben have done that in the past and have been basically called "creepy trolls" and asked to head for the exits...
All of them have obliged in due time...
I have mostly obliged, but I'm more of a SOB than they are, and possess no manners whatsoever (except with ladies)...
Really - Most of this would have probably passed (as even CV had taken to "smoking a peace pipe" - as per my most recent posts at your blog)...
But the LB situation has gotten some people annoyed... Here's why...
Frankly - I consider the two blogs COMPLETELY dissimilar... The problem is, though, that even after all the "taking of sides" that has occurred, there remain some common elements...
They are:
- Amen Ra's posts
- & most recently, LB's wrap
I've "let it go" up until this point... Amen mostly keeps to himself, but LB seems to like this cat & mouse game...
I don't see that as healthy...
If it continues to happen I'm going to be forced into a maneuver (against my wishes), that forces people to take sides... I'm indifferent as to which sides are selected...
The OTHER alternative is that if a high profile character, such as LB (as he is a gentleman with dedicated market skills & insights) decides to DEGRADE the content of my efforts by putting it in league with the efforts of others...
Well - I can't account for what will happen (IOW - I can't "predict" how followers will respond), but I CAN defend my territory by calling in to question the THEORIES of those who wish to CHALLENGE me...
Then - let intelligent people decide for themselves which voice speaks sensibly, and which one conjures up ideas ad hoc...
Thor... I really don't care what you think about me... and it doesn't even matter to me to either be at peace or at war...
The ERROR, from the beginning, was from the very first day that you insulted me (at BR's) without having any knowledge of who I was, or what I stood for...
Over time, instead of ever "apologizing" for that, you have taken to criticizing, and/or "ganging up" on me personally by organizing your own private army...
At this point, there's not much you can do to change that... The only way to have peace will be to ignore me completely (which you say you have done, but apparently not)...
Good luck with your blog...
CV
"What we've got here is failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach...
So, you get what we had here today,
which is the way they wants it!
Well, they gets it!
N' I don't like it any more than you readers."
Look at your bloggers fighting
Look at your bloggers supporters crying
Look at your blogs dying
The way they've always done before
Look at the hate you're breeding
Look at the fear readers are feeding
Look at the silly lives we're leading
The way we've always done before
My hands are tied
The markets shift from side to side
And the blog wars go on with brainwashed pride
For the love of intellect and our perceived rights
And all these things are swept aside
By bloody hands typing diatribe
And are washed away by silly lies
And distorted history hides the lies of our blog wars
D'you wear a black armband
When they called out the man
Who said "EUR/USD 1.29 on May 4th"
And in my first memories
They snubbed TWSWB
I went numb when I learned to chart read
So I never fell for fundamentals
I got the money losses of oil shorts to remind us all
That you can't trust fundamentals
When the markets not in Ben's hands
When everybody's fightin'
in the algo's HFTing land
And
I don't need your blog wars
It feeds the pettiness while it buries the core
Your respective readers deserve a little more
In an internet filled with financial blogging whores
Ain't that fresh
I don't need your blog wars
Look at the comments you're filling
Look at the pettiness you're spilling
Look at the blog we're killing
The way we've always done before
Look in the doubt we've wallowed
Look at the leaders we've followed
Look at the lies we've swallowed
And I don't want to hear no more
My hands are tied
For all I've seen has changed my mind
As technicals win out as fundamentals die
With no love of Ben or 'news' sites
'Cause all these dreams are swept aside
By bloody charts of the criticized
Who carry the cross of being right
And history bears the scars of our blog wars
"We practice selective annihilation of bankers
And government officials
For example to create a vacuum
Then we fill that vacuum
As populist war advances
Social unrest edges closer" **
I don't need your blog wars
It feeds the pettiness while it buries the core
Your respective readers deserve a little more
In an internet filled with financial blogging whores
Ain't that fresh
I don't need your blog wars
And I don't need your civil war
I don't need your blog wars
I don't need your blog wars
Your respective readers deserve a little more
In an internet filled with financial blogging whores
Ain't that fresh
I don't need your blog wars
I don't need one more blog war
I don't need one more blog war
Whaz so civil 'bout blog wars anyway?
Yo McHappy Raps... lol
BTW, I'm just having a little fun with one of my favourite bands.
I've quit following the 'other blog' b/c it doesn't jive with my trading strategy anymore nor do the comments add any insight. The very fact the market jumped 3% on a day when the jobs number went from an estimated +17K (which is still awful for a 'recovery') to -10K and at a time when I was looking for 1070-1081 first and then 1090's next based on EW is exactly why the argument of the 'news' or 'people' moving the markets does not appeal to me - it is not rationale IMO.
It seems the blogs have gone different routes - it doesn't make one better or superior to the other. Diffrent strokes for different folks. Make money or express your opinions or do both - who gives a shit.
Cv - I hope you keep up your good work with the technical based market observations. How you express the observations I could give a rats ass.
FWIW also, on a market note, it would appear a little break down is coming. Whether that is part of a larger correction or the next leg down is TBD.
G'Night.
"When you take away the bully's power, they quickly scurry away."
"But sir, what is the bully's power?"
"Attention."
@McHappy
G'Nite... I'm not sure on "when" the break is coming...
I'm going to cruise over to Dan's site to see what he has to say...
Like you (and others), I don't always agree with his interpretations, but I like to see various viewpoints...
I've never COMMENTED on Dan's site (really, because I have nothing KNOWLEDGEABLE to offer with regards to EWI)... Though the subject matter fascinates me... I believe there is a foundation to the theory... Better than any AD HOC ideas I might come up with...
@Thor
& lastly...
If you want to continue to troll around looking for old videos of CV, there ought to be about 20 more you could add to your collection...
Hell, that one was only 1 of 5 that I did together with Maddy (Madeliene), for LORIMAR...
Have fun... :-)
Oh... and incidentally...
We were filming that on the day of the Challenger Space Shuttle explosion... It wasn't all that easy therefore to be all smiley and happy...
But the show must go on...
I can't speak for you folks, but my daytrading is fraught with pettiness!
Not necessarily interpersonal pettiness. More often, antipersonal pettiness. Sitting here, refreshing stock quotes, tuning out my wife!
For example, why should my ZSL losses prevent me from savoring the simple joys of life? Alas, they do. That's pretty petty! Now I know how Nelson Bunker Hunt felt. The poor guy! Born too early, I s'pose. Bit off more than he could chew. What he really needed was a silver ETF!
Today, thanks to instruments like SLV, EVERYONE can corner the market in a fairly useless metal.
I don't want to make money. Goodness knows: It doesn't make me happy when I make it, it just makes me petty when I lose it.
So, I don't mind pettiness, I've grown to accept it. Carry on, guys!
CV,
Checked Dan's site as well as l'il missHAPPY has an unscheduled feeding in progress. Don't have the time to go back and look at when he changed his primary count but he now has the exact count of mcHAPPY. I'm sure he feels re-assured about that - lol.
I know Andy said to beware anyone making an impulsive wave out of this but that chart/comment was made before a lower low i.e. 1039.83 ---> 1061.45 ---> 1039.70. By my count, minuette 1 of minute i ended at 1066.49 followed by an expanded flat for 2 i.e. no overlap of 1 and 4.
From 1039.70 there is a flat ABC already made. This is my confusion: is it part of a larger correction or impulsive? 5 waves down with the 5th ending below 1039.7 would certainly imply impulsive.
Also in that flat C would have been 165% of A at 1082.97. RP said in flats B usually retraces 100-138% of A and wave C is usually 100-165% of A.
Tie this in with a tired looking market today and .5 retracement of (possible) minute i at 1085, .618 at 1095 and .786 at 1110 and it lends a lot of validity to this possible count.
Next consider we had nearly 8 days down from August 10 to 1039.70 and now after an hour or two tomorrow we are nearly 5 days from 1039.70.
Finally in looking at my proposed minuette iii is nearly 2.618 of i and within minuette iii we have 1 nearly equal 5 and 3 an extension that is near the 2.618 of 1. Minuette ii is an expanded flat with b nearly 1.618 of a and c 5 points beyond 2.618 of a. Minuette iv retraced .5 of iii. Within minuette v we have 5 just a short of 1.618 the length of 1 with a third wave extension that is 2.618 the length of 5. While the numbers are not exact - they are close. Still working on fibo's within EW so I'm probably taking a lot of liberties here. However, a lot of co-inky-dink.
To me this is some compelling technical evidence but, unfortunately, only a break of 1129.24 would be able to invalidate this 100%.
Feeding finished - mcHAPPY out.
Oh yeah, the above may not be accurate as I can't keep my eyes open and I was hurrying to finish before the babe.
Forget this section above:
"Finally in looking at my proposed minuette iii is nearly 2.618 of i and within minuette iii we have 1 nearly equal 5 and 3 an extension that is near the 2.618 of 1. Minuette ii is an expanded flat with b nearly 1.618 of a and c 5 points beyond 2.618 of a. Minuette iv retraced .5 of iii. Within minuette v we have 5 just a short of 1.618 the length of 1 with a third wave extension that is 2.618 the length of 5. While the numbers are not exact - they are close. Still working on fibo's within EW so I'm probably taking a lot of liberties here. However, a lot of co-inky-dink."
I've been looking at the chart so much the last few days from so many angles/possible counts I messed up my count explanation within proposed minute i above - sorry.
Bottom line in my proposed count minute i was 1129.24-1039.70.
minor 1 = 179.02 points
1.618 minor 1 = 289.65
minor 2 ended at 1129.24 (?)and just shy of .5 minor 1 (1130.29).
1129.24 - 289.65 = 839.59 for possible minor 3.
That is enough for now.
Besides fibo work, I am going to have to start working with %'s between wave comparisons.
Really gone now.
I think my head just exploded
Thanks McHappy XXX
Another hour til NFP over there?
David Rosenberg was pretty gloomy this morning, but then not much gloomier than he usually is I s'pose.
For some reason I still find him credible tho, permabear that he seems to be. Prolly coz I'm a pessimist by nature ha.. oh I read a while ago in some science mag that person suffering depression are generally able to predict the chances of success more accurately than "normal" people, it seems a wild optimism is hard-wired into the normal human brain... as a survival trait? Perhaps the truth of the human condition really is too much to bear ha, now there's a cheerful start to the day.
Bertie
person = people
sorry
A few years ago one of my brothers lost his mind for a while and after he recovered he maintained that the whole world is mad, they just have support systems in place to disguise it. And I've come to think he might have been right about that.
Bertie
new thread up
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