A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: I'm headed up the coast. See you soon Wall St.
SPXSpinning top day. Morning star formation? Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Passed the third test of 1041.83 (.1459 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.69). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Held the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.31).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.46).
GOLDBullish long day. Keeps resolving dojis higher. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still heading towards the 0%. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1230.10).
EURUSDDoji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2654).
JNKBullish short day. Still failing to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and above the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is held. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 26.85).
AUDJPYBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).
DJ TRANS AVGSpinning top day. Still below the upper trendline and the SMA(233). Still below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4236.96). Still below weekly 3LB reversal price.
SLVBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the 85.4% retrace heading for the 100%. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.12).
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 8.31.10
A risk-off flattener day. You got that, right? The long end was strongest today and 2s10s declined to about 199 bps. Corporate bonds remained strong, and the long bond reached a 3.52% low yield. High yield had a good day, all things considered.
Corpies: LQD 0.34%; AGG 0.07%; JNK 0.34%; HYG -0.03%;
Govies: TLT 1.19%; IEI 0.18%; TIP 0.28%
Hedgies: TBT -2.24%
We sold some AGG today. We are hedged against our remaining fixed income exposure. We are not bullish on bonds here, and see significant rate risk growing here, especially in Treasuries of which we are short.
Oh and just so you can hate me, I am long equities as well.
72 comments:
CV will make a note that the MONTHLY CANDLE CLOSE was:
- Below the 200 MONTH MA
- Below the trend line from Feb '09 candle close thru June '09 candle close
- Broke thru (to the downside), the LD of the MONTHLY RSI from the March '09 lows
- The MONTHLY HIGH (August), on the candle failed at 1130 (which was the trend line from the post Black Monday stock market crash of 1987)
I should say... TREND LINE (from 1987) which also intersected the September 2002 MONTHLY closing low...
That's two monthly failures to get back over (July failed at 1130 as well)...
great charts Ra.
Usain Bolt wants to play for Man U:
http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/blog/dirty-tackle/post/Usain-Bolt-wants-to-play-for-Manchester-United-?urn=sow-266267
and if that doesn't work out I'm sure he could get some money in Oakland, Al Davis loves fast guys, and he's the fastest of them all.
Great posts the last two mornings, CV. Just got home this evening and playing catch up with Andy's Charts, EWI updates, and here, of course. To be honest I only glazed the comments from the last two days.
It was interesting to look at Andy's and EWI charts after I came up with my own. Personally I still think the 1039.83 on August 25 was the end of minute i and it ended on an extended fifth wave. We are still in minute ii - i.e. there is no minor three or third of a third in progress. A break of 1065 will make this clear to all.
We have a rally for a from lows on the 25th to 1065.21 for our W (abc), we have an X wave in place down to the lows today, and I'm looking for a Y to take us up to anywhere from 1066 until 1081. I think it will be the higher side of this range where coincidentally enough lies the second wave of the extended fifth (if my count is correct) at 1075.
You didn't think I would let the big sell of commence before I am back from vacation did you.
Off to commiserate (celebrate) the demise of JPM prop trading. Poor Jamie mwuahahaha
You are long equities LB? We can't hate you, we love you!
Me too! Me too!
CV-
just went to Yahoo for the draft- there are only 6 teams?
wow-
avatar is askew
China Manufacturing PMI better than expected. Risk on, the world is not ending, china will make plastic things to save us.
@ahab
I posted earlier on this... We only have 6 thus far, so I'm changing the DRAFT (need a couple more days to fill up the rest of the teams)...
But it was too late to cancel that draft, so it will go off THEN I'll delete it...
We'll probably have the draft next Monday...
plastics.
hey man-
2small2bail clued me in- we're both over there
September is going to be a wild month, hope I can identify the proper trend.
After looking at the charts tonight all I can think is:
can you you say triangle?
plastics bitchez!
plastic triangles bitchez!
alright draft over-
moves along pretty quick w/ 6 teams
AUDJPY +1.24%, CHF -0.5%, JPY -0.38%, EUFCHF +0.26%, Gold -0.12%. Damn.
CV.. that expression is wearing on me. AR, I want to have an "argument" over your AUD/JPY but am in a Virginia mood, LOL..
karen-
don't go to ZH much do you
ben @ 9:47, can you say cr*p shoot?
i kinda got some of my feeling back this week.. i actually think i know what is going on !!
ahab, i do follow ZH on twitter. perhaps that is why it is wearing? also, i don't care for slang unless in mock fun and don't care for that word.
@karen (10:00)
I can't help it...
It amuses me to no end... (it's a GUY thing)... Guys do this sometimes... No wait... IN FACT... Guys do this ALL THE TIME...
It's a way of saying "talk to the hand"...
Anyway... It'll get OLD after awhile... But there's no use fighting it until it gets old TO ME...
Until then... You'll have to deal with it... :-)
pretty much sucks-
I was going to be in OBX this week-
was going to head out on the 29th but needed to get a cracked tooth fixed- dentist tells me yesterday about Hurricane Earl-
put a dent in those plans-
anyway- CV- what happened to the defending champ?
I checked w/ CNBC Sucks- not interested- he's going to retire w/ his 3rd place finish-
Karen-
slang? Bitchez ain't slang
@ahab
I suppose the draft actually went off... I never logged on so I don't know what went down...
I suppose it was mostly AUTOPICKS...
Anyway... whatever it is... That;s NOT the league...
CV (and you guys on the east coast) are you making preparations for hurricane Earl?
@ahab
You must have missed this comment from this morning...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/08/morning-audibles-83110-no-matter-what.html?showComment=1283268204337#c6168656482055623242
@Nic
CV is making preparations for "CREDITCANE EARL"...
How's that? :-)
I could live with that team from auto draft, no such thing as a perfect draft.
"bitchez" is like saying "home boy", or "homes"
Nic.. those east coast hurricanes are a marketing gimmick!
CV
Hardee Har Har... :-)
@McF
I haven't seen how the AUTO draft went down...
@Amen
Secret safe with me HOMES...
CV-
I picked- and 2small- I like my team- pretty easy w/ 6 teams to get exactly what you want-
but would rather have a larger league
@karen
OK... I just decided... With respect for you (which I have A LOT of)... "bitchez" will officially be replaced with "homes"... (or homies)...
"PLASTIC TRIANGLES HOMIES"
That way I can continue to express... and you won't get offended...
deal?
Now if you ask me to put the toilet seat down... all deals are off...
@ahab
It's going to be 10 teams... OR NO LEAGUE...
I just need to get the other 4 "paying players" locked in (with a draft date)...
It's harder than you think to herd cats (i mean - get peoples schedules organized)...
wow-
lol- I ended w/ 2 kickers- WTF?
No, CV.. as you surely suspected, hom*** is even worse!!
and no way i can live with toilet lid not down, let alone toilet seat.
Hey look...
Barack Obama sent me an e-mail tonight (he still thinks my name is "Maria")...
---
Maria --
Tonight marks the end of the American combat mission in Iraq.
As a candidate for this office, I pledged to end this war responsibly. And, as President, that is what I am doing.
Since I became Commander-in-Chief, we've brought home nearly 100,000 U.S. troops. We've closed or turned over to Iraq hundreds of our bases.
As Operation Iraqi Freedom ends, our commitment to a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant Iraq continues. Under Operation New Dawn, a transitional force of U.S. troops will remain to advise and assist Iraqi forces, protect our civilians on the ground, and pursue targeted counterterrorism efforts.
By the end of next year, consistent with our agreement with the Iraqi government, these men and women, too, will come home.
Ending this war is not only in Iraq's interest -- it is in our own. Our nation has paid a huge price to put Iraq's future in the hands of its people. We have sent our men and women in uniform to make enormous sacrifices. We have spent vast resources abroad in the face of several years of recession at home.
We have met our responsibility through the courage and resolve of our women and men in uniform.
In seven years, they confronted a mission as challenging and as complex as any our military has ever been asked to face.
Nearly 1.5 million Americans put their lives on the line. Many returned for multiple tours of duty, far from their loved ones who bore a heroic burden of their own. And most painfully, more than 4,400 Americans have given their lives, fighting for people they never knew, for values that have defined our people for more than two centuries.
What their country asked of them was not small. And what they sacrificed was not easy.
For that, each and every American owes them our heartfelt thanks.
Our promise to them -- to each woman or man who has donned our colors -- is that our country will serve them as faithfully as they have served us. We have already made the largest increase in funding for veterans in decades. So long as I am President, I will do whatever it takes to fulfill that sacred trust.
Tonight, we mark a milestone in our nation's history. Even at a time of great uncertainty for so many Americans, this day and our brave troops remind us that our future is in our own hands and that our best days lie ahead.
Thank you,
President Barack Obama
@ahab
I might need the name of that dentist of yours... Because after that e-mail, I might be getting a cavity...
CV-
no doubt-
I-Man? Wunsacon? where is CFA? What about mutt?
Ra? mchappy? LB?
@karen
OK sorry... I'm going to have to therefore work on my "DO-BEE" and "DON'T BEE" skills...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td1KAgrYUGA
I'll make it my life's ambition... lol
@ahab
I-Man: purse strings
CFA: ought to be in - but I have to verify the 100
mutt: no word (no bark in that dog - Laveurnius Coles retired so he might be in a state of depression)
wunsacon: never replied
LB: not his sport... sport
mcHappy: Busy with the baby
...and so it goes
CV-
Dr. Rogowski- Vienna VA-
funny- called my sister to wish her a happy 55 b-day. Lo and behold she was at the very same dentist today-
he telling her that I was going to the OBX-
she tells my dad- who calls me tonight trying to talk me out of going to the OBX-
when I had already bagged the plans when the dentist tells me about Earl-
shit gets around
CV.. i'm going to shower under the moon now.. it's really not my problem or concern if you can't put a toilet lid down.. (let alone the seat.) bet you don't iron your bedsheets either.. good for you! such a waste of time to slip under lavender scented freshly pressed sheets..
Karen, I am coming to your house. Luxury :)
freshly pressed sheets
cough, cough . . .gay
re LB-
no doubt he is a soccer fan-
but there is no way on this planet he doesn't know enough about (American) football to be able to field a team
ahab! too funny.. need i remind you what is in those sheets?! of course if you are not into L & A forget it..
L & A?
no clue what that is- but I will still take a disheveled set of sheets every time
CV-
re- mutt and I-man-
c'mon man!
it's $100- is that a deal breaker?
@karen
I know I don't iron dishtowels...
That's the extent of my memory...
>> wunsacon: never replied
CV, Ahab. I did reply (I thought) to Mannwich the other day on another thread.
I've been working more hours than normal lately and don't see an end to that soon. (Since my last company just laid off 20%, I'm certainly *not* complaining.) But, this work schedule means I can't participate in FF.
@karen
And I don't care so much about the lavender scent so much... Why worry about that when I have about an acre of the stuff growing at the farm...
1000 thread count ought to suffice... But I'm mostly COWBOY at heart... So a bedroll and a patch of dirt is fine as well...
karen-
alright- I've decided that I like that new avatar-
is that is what is in those sheets?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH0DoLZyRYk
CV-
exactly
WTF is going on with futures??
You know, 1+ years ago on the TBP, I mentioned a couple of times (a) how in the early 1980's the stock market didn't care about the homeless problem and (b) maybe this time the stock market will rise without the middle class.
It can happen because: even though the TBTF institutions *should* have had "weak hands" and gone under, the Fed is strengthening their hands. Meanwhile, the middle class is apparently cashing out. (Perhaps to pay the bills -- which ultimately again pays the banks.)
On our present course, we Americans are truly going "banana republic" (with nukes). Complete "have"'s and "have not"'s. And, as that witty saying goes: "if you don't change your direction, you'll eventually get there."
And for fuck's sake, why can't we get some opposition that isn't loco? I agree with Denninger here:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165544
ahab,
re: 2 kickers,
check this old SNL skit out, I remember seeing this a while back and thinking it was really funny, bad recording though:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AU1M9wHpH6k
wunsacon.. sighing.. all you need to remember is that this is the country that put Sarah Palin on the VP ticket..
So... the "teleprompter in chief" to be replaced by the "milf in chief"?...
ought to be a "show" anyway...
Isn't that what the USSA is all about?
>> all you need to remember is that this is the country that put Sarah Palin on the VP ticket..
Yeah. Thanks, Karen. I need to remember that, try to just calm-the-f-down, and enjoy my time on the planet... ;-)
...
>> Isn't that what the USSA is all about?
USSA! USSA! USSA!
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/343094/august-02-2010/alpha-dog-of-the-week---david-h--brooks
I-Man is still on vacation isn't he?
Dollar,.... ouch.
today should be fun to say the least....
good luck
b22-
caught that "kicker" clip last night-
Peyton all styled out w/ the Jheri curls- sad to see him and Phil Harmon
I see the market is trying to ignore the WTE ADP report. Unless they think that means QE2 is now in the bag.
Put me down for official protest of the ADP number...I will speak with Mr. Gibbs, take him out to the woodshed, and we'll have a better number by tomorrow...I think it was just a fat finger.....erm.....
And yet the futures did not miss a step.... hmmmm. This is why I have developed such a passion for EW because if I relied on fundamentals or news I'd continue my trek into insanity. This also fits in nicely with the 1070-1080 I'm looking for. Of course if we dump hard here I will not complain. Hopefully 1100 is not seen again for a few more months.
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